Nick Allgeyer
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 30
LHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
K%22.5%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+0.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 23 | 22 | 118 | 498 | 104 | 29 | 10 | 96% | 5.1 | 16.1% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 1.8% | 3.95 | 3.58 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 23 | 22 | 118 | 498 | 104 | 29 | 10 | 96% | 5.1 | 20.9% | 5.8% | 15.1% | 2.0% | 3.95 | 3.18 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 17 | 90 | 412 | 80 | 52 | 15 | 74% | 3.9 | 17.2% | 13.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.28 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 17 | 90 | 412 | 80 | 52 | 15 | 74% | 3.9 | 19.4% | 12.6% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 5.28 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 35 | 15 | 101 | 450 | 95 | 42 | 17 | 43% | 2.9 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 5.44 | 5.30 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 35 | 15 | 101 | 450 | 95 | 42 | 17 | 43% | 2.9 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 5.44 | 4.65 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 23 | 10 | 81 | 387 | 85 | 52 | 15 | 43% | 3.5 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.31 | 6.21 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 23 | 10 | 81 | 387 | 85 | 52 | 15 | 43% | 3.5 | 22.0% | 13.4% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 6.31 | 5.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 55 | 233 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 52 | 217 | 48 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.1% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 44 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 44 | 185 | 39 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.11 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.1% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.11 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 12 | 76 | 319 | 69 | 35 | 12 | 92% | 5.8 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 4.69 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 32 | 200 | 841 | 182 | 92 | 32 | 92% | 5.7 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 104 | 64 | 391 | 1747 | 309 | 187 | 65 | 62% | 3.8 | 17.7% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 5.13 | 5.00 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 33 | 200 | 894 | 158 | 96 | 33 | 62% | 3.8 | 17.7% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 5.13 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Allgeyer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 3.3% | — | 5.05 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 143 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 69 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 68 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 64 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 62 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 61 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.86 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 523 | 61 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2024 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 60 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 58 |
| Nico Tellache L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 57 |
| Matt Lujan L 2024 · 5.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.13 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 227 | 57 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 56 |
| Darin Gorski L 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.39 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 206 | 55 |
| James Gillheeney L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 55 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 55 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.31 | 17.9% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 431 | 55 |
| Brian Johnson L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.17 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 506 | 55 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 55 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 54 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.68 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.43 | 3.68 | 146 | 54 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.73 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 0.6% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 108 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 22.0% | 10.8% | 1.38 | 4.86 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |