Nick Allgeyer
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.4
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
xFIP6.70
SIERA7.56
K%22.5%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%12.1%
IP79
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
FB+0.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 23 | 22 | 118 | 498 | 104 | 29 | 10 | 16.1% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 3.95 | 3.71 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 23 | 17 | 90 | 412 | 80 | 52 | 15 | 17.2% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 5.28 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 35 | 15 | 101 | 450 | 95 | 42 | 17 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 4.4% | 5.44 | 5.17 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 23 | 10 | 81 | 387 | 85 | 52 | 15 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 4.6% | 6.31 | 5.78 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 75 | 35 | 11 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 72 | 33 | 10 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 68 | 32 | 10 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 64 | 31 | 10 | 21.9% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 60 | 30 | 10 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 62 | 264 | 56 | 29 | 9 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 51 | 28 | 9 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.09 | 5.18 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 64 | 391 | 1747 | 309 | 187 | 63 | 17.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 4.93 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 33 | 200 | 894 | 158 | 96 | 32 | 17.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 4.93 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Allgeyer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.75 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 219 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.34 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 3.8% | .202 | 4.17 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.17 | 2.37 | 296 | 79 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 77 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 77 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.54 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .268 | 7.97 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.43 | 2.98 | 145 | 76 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 74 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 74 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.59 | 29.2% | 13.6% | 2.3% | .308 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 13.5% | 93 | +0.23 | 2.43 | 420 | 72 |
| Zack Britton L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.88 | 20.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | .234 | 3.60 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 99 | -0.28 | 1.60 | 309 | 71 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.03 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.70 | 2.38 | 306 | 71 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 71 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 70 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 70 |
| Jose Alvarez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.57 | 20.0% | 5.5% | 2.7% | .319 | 3.41 | 16.5% | 9.0% | 80 | -0.16 | 2.79 | 375 | 70 |
| Adam Loewen L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 70 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 69 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.43 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.7% | .261 | 3.85 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.58 | 3.19 | 137 | 69 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.36 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 4.5% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 269 | 69 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 69 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 68 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.83 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 204 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.