Jaime Arias
P
Akron RubberDucks
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 210 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109119vR 128
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
K%20.5%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%10.6%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 23 | 9 | 87 | 338 | 111 | 15 | 12 | 39% | 3.8 | 24.3% | 5.2% | 19.1% | 5.1% | 3.81 | 4.52 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 23 | 9 | 87 | 338 | 111 | 15 | 12 | 39% | 3.8 | 32.8% | 4.4% | 28.4% | 3.6% | 3.81 | 2.86 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 15 | 81 | 367 | 74 | 33 | 11 | 52% | 2.8 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 5.98 | 4.91 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 15 | 81 | 367 | 74 | 33 | 11 | 52% | 2.8 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 5.98 | 4.26 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 6 | 39 | 167 | 35 | 16 | 9 | 50% | 3.2 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.05 | 6.28 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 6 | 39 | 167 | 35 | 16 | 9 | 50% | 3.2 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 5.4% | 6.05 | 5.56 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 7 | 54 | 235 | 43 | 23 | 9 | 47% | 3.6 | 15.2% | 10.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.70 | 5.35 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 7 | 54 | 235 | 43 | 23 | 9 | 47% | 3.6 | 18.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 4.70 | 4.96 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 31 | 0 | 32 | 136 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 30 | 0 | 31 | 132 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.84 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.46 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 85 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 79 | 37 | 261 | 1107 | 205 | 102 | 48 | 47% | 3.3 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 5.00 | 5.09 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 28 | 200 | 848 | 157 | 78 | 37 | 47% | 3.3 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 5.00 | 5.09 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jaime Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | — | 4.84 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 31 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 77 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2025 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 77 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 74 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 72 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 71 |
| Chris Reed L 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 70 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 70 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.68 | 13.8% | 8.3% | 1.3% | .328 | 4.26 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 129 | +0.58 | 3.24 | 298 | 69 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 69 |
| Onelki Garcia L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.07 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 164 | 68 |
| Michael Sansone L 2025 · 5.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.64 | 17.0% | 9.3% | 5.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 255 | 67 |
| Nate Peterson L 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.67 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 1.1% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 288 | 67 |
| Austin Hamilton L 2024 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 135 | 67 |
| Tommy Vail L 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 67 |
| Stu Flesland III L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 211 | 67 |
| Hunter Barco L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 212 | 67 |
| Joe Adametz L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.13 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 236 | 66 |
| Rito Lugo L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 176 | 66 |
| Roy Merritt L 2029 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 66 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 32 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 1.28 | 4.81 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |