Jaime Arias — OGILVIE

Jaime Arias P Akron RubberDucks

Age 27 LHP 6'0" / 210 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%16.6%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	9	87	338	111	15	12	39%	3.8	24.3%	5.2%	19.1%	4.9%	3.81	4.38	—
2021	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	9	87	338	111	15	12	39%	3.8	32.8%	4.4%	28.4%	3.6%	3.81	2.86	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	15	81	367	74	33	11	52%	2.8	15.6%	9.9%	5.8%	3.6%	5.98	5.00	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	15	81	367	74	33	11	52%	2.8	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	3.0%	5.98	4.26	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	6	39	167	35	16	9	50%	3.2	17.5%	13.9%	3.6%	4.8%	6.05	5.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	6	39	167	35	16	9	50%	3.2	17.5%	13.9%	3.6%	4.8%	6.05	5.99	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	6	39	167	35	16	9	50%	3.2	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	5.4%	6.05	5.56	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	54	235	43	23	9	47%	3.6	14.9%	9.7%	5.3%	4.1%	4.70	5.34	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	54	235	43	23	9	47%	3.6	14.9%	9.7%	5.3%	4.1%	4.70	5.34	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	7	54	235	43	23	9	47%	3.6	18.3%	9.8%	8.5%	3.8%	4.70	4.96	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	CLE	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	16.6%	10.0%	6.7%	3.3%	5.15	5.15	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	30	0	31	132	23	13	4	0%	1.0	17.2%	10.0%	7.2%	3.4%	5.11	5.15	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	11	0	12	51	9	5	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.0%	7.2%	3.4%	5.11	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	9	5	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.0%	7.2%	3.4%	5.11	4.77	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	153	85	34	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.0%	7.2%	3.4%	5.11	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		79	37	261	1107	204	100	47	47%	3.3	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	4.3%	5.00	5.03	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	28	200	848	156	76	36	47%	3.3	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	4.3%	5.00	5.03	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaime Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	16.6%	10.0%	3.3%	—	5.15	17.2%	7.2%	31	+0.00	—	—	—
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	78
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	74
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	73
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	73
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	73
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	72
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	72
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	70
Ryan Kellogg L 2021 · 4.33 FIP	27	SW	4.33	12.3%	5.2%	2.9%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	446	69
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	412	69
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	69
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	68
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	68
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	68
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	67
Colten Schmidt L 2023 · 5.23 FIP	27	SW	5.23	14.4%	8.0%	4.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	163	66
Jake Drehoff L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SW	5.21	16.8%	9.0%	4.4%	.418	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	153	66
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	66
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	66
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	16.9%	10.0%	1.29	5.13
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50