T.J. Sikkema
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.4
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'0" / 211 lbs
AAA
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.0%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%10.1%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†4050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 19 | 18 | 69 | 297 | 83 | 24 | 9 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 4.83 | 4.55 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 34 | 0 | 72 | 316 | 63 | 38 | 11 | 16.1% | 13.2% | 4.6% | 5.85 | 5.93 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 20 | 14 | 72 | 304 | 72 | 16 | 7 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 3.61 | 3.50 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 23 | 15 | 87 | 367 | 72 | 31 | 7 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 4.57 | 4.14 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 2 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.64 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 60 | 32 | 9 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 85 | 365 | 64 | 37 | 10 | 17.6% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.40 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 67 | 28 | 9 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 65 | 28 | 9 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.45 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 62 | 27 | 9 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.52 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 59 | 27 | 9 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.60 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 56 | 26 | 9 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 52 | 25 | 9 | 19.2% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 48 | 24 | 8 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 44 | 23 | 8 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 49 | 305 | 1311 | 236 | 126 | 42 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.56 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 32 | 200 | 860 | 155 | 83 | 28 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.56 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| T.J. Sikkema (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.45 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 228 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.82 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.58 | 3.24 | 298 | 88 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .341 | 4.37 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.07 | 3.37 | 393 | 86 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 85 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 353 | 84 |
| Orlando Lara L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 83 |
| Everett Teaford L 2029 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 83 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 82 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 81 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 81 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.38 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.09 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | -0.29 | 3.98 | 280 | 81 |
| Chipper Smith L 2023 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 80 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.75 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.25 | 3.50 | 383 | 80 |
| John Anderson L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 79 |
| James Gillheeney L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 79 |
| Eric Wooten L 2023 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 79 |
| John Gast L 2024 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 79 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 79 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.74 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 0.8% | .329 | 4.75 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 187 | +1.01 | 3.74 | 333 | 78 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.36 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .283 | 3.88 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.48 | 3.73 | 311 | 78 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .321 | 7.14 | 16.6% | 2.7% | 21 | +3.17 | 3.97 | 165 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.