T.J. Sikkema — OGILVIE

T.J. Sikkema P Worcester Red Sox

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 211 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION5 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%15.4%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	69	297	83	24	9	95%	3.6	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	3.9%	4.83	4.55	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	69	297	83	24	9	95%	3.6	27.9%	8.1%	19.9%	3.0%	4.83	3.43	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	34	0	72	316	63	38	11	0%	2.1	16.1%	13.2%	2.9%	4.8%	5.85	6.04	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	34	0	72	316	63	38	11	0%	2.1	16.1%	13.2%	2.9%	4.8%	5.85	6.04	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	34	0	72	316	63	38	11	0%	2.1	19.9%	12.0%	7.9%	3.5%	5.85	4.91	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	14	72	304	72	16	7	70%	3.6	18.5%	6.0%	12.5%	2.3%	3.61	3.57	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	14	72	304	72	16	7	70%	3.6	18.5%	6.0%	12.5%	2.3%	3.61	3.57	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	14	72	304	72	16	7	70%	3.6	23.7%	5.3%	18.4%	2.3%	3.61	3.03	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	87	367	72	31	7	65%	3.8	16.0%	8.9%	7.1%	2.3%	4.57	4.11	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	87	367	72	31	7	65%	3.8	16.0%	8.9%	7.1%	2.3%	4.57	4.11	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	15	87	367	72	31	7	65%	3.8	19.6%	8.4%	11.2%	1.9%	4.57	3.56	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	2	2	5	27	4	5	1	100%	2.3	—	—	—	—	9.64	—	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	2	2	5	27	4	5	1	100%	2.3	—	—	—	—	9.64	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	BOS	2	2	5	27	4	5	1	100%	2.4	14.8%	18.5%	-3.7%	3.7%	9.64	6.23	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	BOS	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	5.8	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	2.7%	4.83	4.83	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	11	52	8	7	2	—	—	15.1%	14.0%	1.1%	3.2%	6.97	2.68	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	66	280	45	26	8	100%	6.0	16.0%	9.2%	6.7%	2.9%	4.85	4.91	-0.0
2028	30	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	62	263	42	25	8	100%	6.2	16.2%	9.5%	6.6%	3.1%	4.94	5.04	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	BOS	4	4	24	101	16	9	3	100%	6.0	16.0%	9.2%	6.7%	2.9%	4.85	4.91	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	34	144	23	14	4	100%	5.7	16.2%	9.5%	6.6%	3.1%	4.94	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	59	250	40	23	8	100%	5.9	16.1%	9.4%	6.7%	3.0%	4.90	4.60	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	135	78	27	100%	6.0	16.1%	9.4%	6.7%	3.0%	4.90	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		98	49	305	1311	235	124	43	50%	3.1	17.9%	9.5%	8.4%	3.3%	4.78	4.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	32	200	860	154	82	28	50%	3.1	17.9%	9.5%	8.4%	3.3%	4.78	4.59	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
T.J. Sikkema (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	15.4%	9.0%	2.7%	—	4.97	16.1%	6.7%	128	+0.14	—	—	—
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	83
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	82
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	80
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	77
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	76
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	75
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	75
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	75
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	74
Andy Oliver L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	28	SP-	3.93	19.9%	9.9%	2.3%	.321	7.12	16.6%	2.7%	21	+3.19	3.93	165	73
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	72
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	72
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	71
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	71
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	70
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	70
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	69
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	68
Steven Moyers L 2022 · 5.24 FIP	28	SW	5.24	14.7%	8.1%	4.3%	.371	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	464	68
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	15.8%	9.2%	1.13	4.87
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79