Jacob Latz — OGILVIE

Jacob Latz P Texas Rangers

Age 30 LHP 6'2" / 185 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6876vR 84

ERA3.16

FIP3.32

K%27.2%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%17.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p8631.0%

p9030.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.246

FB+4.2 (56%)

CH+0.6 (19%)

SL (18%)

CU (8%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	2	0	3	13	5	2	0	0%	1.3	38.5%	15.4%	23.1%	0.0%	6.75	1.80	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	2	0	3	13	5	2	0	0%	1.3	38.5%	15.4%	23.1%	0.0%	6.75	1.60	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	61	239	74	25	2	100%	4.7	23.0%	12.6%	10.4%	1.1%	1.62	3.35	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	61	239	74	25	2	100%	4.7	31.0%	10.5%	20.5%	0.8%	1.62	2.33	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	20	101	437	123	44	17	87%	4.4	23.6%	11.4%	12.3%	3.7%	4.37	4.57	+0.4
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	20	101	437	123	44	17	87%	4.4	28.1%	10.1%	18.1%	3.9%	4.37	4.16	+0.9
2022	26	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	19	10	53	243	59	31	12	53%	2.8	21.4%	13.4%	8.0%	5.7%	5.77	6.11	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	19	10	53	243	59	31	12	53%	2.8	24.3%	12.8%	11.5%	4.9%	5.77	5.57	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	5	70	288	92	32	5	10%	1.4	27.1%	9.8%	17.3%	2.0%	3.73	3.15	+1.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	5	70	288	92	32	5	10%	1.4	27.1%	9.8%	17.3%	2.0%	3.73	3.15	+1.2
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	5	70	288	92	32	5	10%	1.4	31.9%	11.1%	20.8%	1.7%	3.73	2.77	+1.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	54	1	54	240	53	33	7	2%	1.0	20.8%	12.5%	8.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.52	+0.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	54	1	54	240	53	33	7	2%	1.0	20.8%	12.5%	8.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.52	+0.0
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	54	1	54	240	53	33	7	2%	1.0	22.1%	13.8%	8.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.67	-0.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	9	100	415	98	46	8	21%	2.4	22.7%	10.8%	11.9%	1.9%	2.69	3.57	+1.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	9	100	415	98	46	8	21%	2.4	22.7%	10.8%	11.9%	1.9%	2.69	3.57	+1.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	9	100	415	98	46	8	21%	2.4	23.6%	11.1%	12.5%	1.9%	2.69	3.56	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			135	10	205	821	197	78	20	7%	1.5	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	2.4%	2.68	3.59	+2.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	52	1	65	240	72	16	4	2%	1.2	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	1.6%	1.81	2.26	+1.8
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	52	1	65	240	72	16	4	2%	1.2	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	1.6%	1.81	2.26	+1.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	MLB RAW	TEX	52	1	65	240	72	16	4	2%	1.2	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	1.7%	1.81	2.33	+1.7
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	TEX	52	1	65	240	72	16	4	2%	1.2	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	1.7%	1.81	2.33	+1.7
ROS	30	MLB MLE	TEX	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	27.2%	9.4%	17.7%	2.4%	3.16	3.32	+0.1
ROS	30	MLB CTX	TEX	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	27.2%	9.4%	17.7%	2.4%	3.16	3.32	+0.1
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	71	265	79	18	5	—	—	29.7%	6.9%	22.8%	1.7%	1.92	2.35	+2.1
FULL	30	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	71	298	79	18	5	—	—	26.4%	6.2%	20.3%	1.5%	1.92	2.49	+2.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	TEX	62	0	65	274	70	27	7	0%	1.0	25.5%	10.0%	15.6%	2.5%	3.78	3.94	+0.5
2028	32	MLB MLE	TEX	57	0	60	253	63	26	7	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.4%	14.4%	2.7%	4.03	4.19	+0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	TEX	59	0	62	262	67	26	6	0%	1.1	25.5%	10.0%	15.6%	2.5%	3.78	3.94	+0.5
2028	32	MLB CTX	TEX	54	0	57	241	59	25	7	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.4%	14.4%	2.7%	4.03	4.19	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		253	10	329	1346	329	131	34	4%	1.3	24.5%	9.7%	14.7%	2.5%	3.13	3.63	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		154	6	200	817	200	80	21	4%	1.3	24.5%	9.7%	14.7%	2.5%	3.13	3.63	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		254	59	506	2115	510	234	57	23%	2.0	24.1%	11.0%	13.1%	2.7%	3.43	3.93	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	23	200	835	201	92	22	23%	2.0	24.1%	11.0%	13.1%	2.7%	3.43	3.93	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Latz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	23.3%	11.6%	2.5%	—	4.06	25.1%	15.0%	125	-0.30	—	—	—
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	73
Jake Diekman L 2016 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	26.7%	11.3%	1.7%	.241	3.09	28.6%	15.8%	115	-0.14	2.36	455	72
Antonio Bastardo L 2016 · 4.43 FIP	30	SU	4.43	24.9%	9.8%	4.0%	.268	8.05	15.0%	-1.4%	20	+3.62	3.10	145	72
Justin Wilson L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	30	SU	3.56	29.2%	13.6%	2.2%	.308	3.85	24.0%	13.5%	93	+0.29	2.49	420	71
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	70
Buddy Boshers L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	22.9%	6.6%	2.2%	.314	3.73	25.3%	14.9%	55	+0.51	2.80	223	70
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	69
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	69
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	67
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	67
Fernando Abad L 2016 · 3.77 FIP	30	SU	3.77	20.7%	10.1%	2.1%	.271	2.95	21.8%	17.1%	88	-0.82	2.37	306	66
Jeff Beliveau L 2017 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	25.2%	11.3%	3.6%	.261	3.86	23.3%	8.9%	26	-0.54	3.19	137	65
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	64
Sammy Solís L 2019 · 4.05 FIP	30	SU	4.05	26.2%	8.9%	3.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	190	64
Felix Doubront L 2017 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	23.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.304	3.44	17.6%	12.6%	126	-0.68	3.44	291	64
Dan Jennings L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	30	SU	4.32	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.88	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.44	3.11	244	64
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	63
James Pazos L 2021 · 4.41 FIP	30	SU	4.41	26.0%	12.0%	3.6%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	261	63
Zack Britton L 2018 · 3.89 FIP	30	SU	3.89	20.1%	12.4%	1.7%	.234	3.57	21.1%	8.3%	99	-0.32	1.58	309	63
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	24.5%	10.7%	0.99	4.01
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19