Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 5 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 9.8% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.82 | 3.51 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 5 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 9.8% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.82 | 3.53 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 60 | 265 | 67 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 1.6% | 2.98 | 3.26 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 60 | 265 | 67 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.3% | 6.0% | 19.2% | 1.5% | 2.98 | 2.54 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 72 | 294 | 90 | 19 | 3 | 2% | 1.4 | 26.2% | 6.9% | 19.3% | 1.1% | 2.76 | 2.36 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 72 | 294 | 90 | 19 | 3 | 2% | 1.4 | 30.6% | 6.5% | 24.1% | 1.0% | 2.76 | 1.93 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 11 | 83 | 319 | 97 | 25 | 7 | 18% | 1.3 | 29.2% | 7.9% | 21.3% | 2.4% | 2.49 | 2.93 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 11 | 83 | 319 | 97 | 25 | 7 | 18% | 1.3 | 30.4% | 7.8% | 22.6% | 2.2% | 2.49 | 2.76 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 6 | 70 | 294 | 82 | 23 | 8 | 9% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.6% | 20.3% | 2.9% | 3.36 | 3.30 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 6 | 70 | 294 | 82 | 23 | 8 | 9% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.8% | 20.1% | 2.7% | 3.36 | 3.23 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 22 | 0 | 22 | 89 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 3.6% | 1.66 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 22 | 0 | 22 | 89 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 1.66 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 59 | 236 | 77 | 15 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.2% | 6.4% | 25.8% | 4.1% | 2.73 | 3.43 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 59 | 236 | 77 | 15 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.6% | 6.4% | 26.3% | 3.8% | 2.73 | 3.23 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 55 | 229 | 54 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 15.8% | 2.4% | 4.42 | 3.41 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 55 | 229 | 54 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 4.42 | 3.35 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 56 | 267 | 57 | 40 | 7 | 2% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 15.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 5.30 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 56 | 267 | 57 | 40 | 7 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 5.30 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 47 | 219 | 48 | 31 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 13.7% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 4.98 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 47 | 219 | 48 | 31 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 14.2% | 7.8% | 1.8% | 4.98 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 20 | 0 | 21 | 95 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 5.06 | 5.44 | — |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 20 | 0 | 21 | 95 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 4.2% | 5.06 | 5.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | COL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 51 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | COL | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 45 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 13.4% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 5.07 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | COL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 39 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 13.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 5.34 | 5.52 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | COL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 33 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 14.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.65 | 5.86 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | COL | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 13.4% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 5.07 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | COL | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 13.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 5.34 | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | COL | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 14.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.65 | 5.86 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 307 | 17 | 323 | 1327 | 348 | 125 | 40 | 6% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 9.4% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 3.72 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 11 | 200 | 823 | 216 | 77 | 25 | 6% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 9.4% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 3.72 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 484 | 19 | 554 | 2348 | 578 | 219 | 56 | 4% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 2.4% | 3.51 | 3.51 | +12.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 175 | 7 | 200 | 847 | 209 | 79 | 20 | 4% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 2.4% | 3.51 | 3.51 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Diego Castillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 3.1% | — | 5.51 | 20.5% | 6.6% | 136 | +0.58 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 81 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 81 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 81 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 80 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.59 | 2.82 | 284 | 77 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 74 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 74 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.49 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 4.9% | .273 | 2.50 | 25.7% | 19.8% | 112 | -2.99 | 2.40 | 617 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 74 |
| Nate Jones R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.06 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 6.10 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +2.04 | 2.54 | 157 | 73 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2027 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 72 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.28 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .362 | 4.22 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.06 | 2.90 | 227 | 72 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 72 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.59 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.07 | 3.07 | 363 | 72 |
| Alan Busenitz R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.54 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .299 | 4.99 | 18.3% | 10.5% | 92 | +0.45 | 2.86 | 436 | 72 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.74 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 2.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 71 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 21.0% | 13.6% | 1.35 | 5.20 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |