Tommy Nance
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 35
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9989vR 80
ERA3.57
FIP3.45
K%24.6%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%17.5%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p4825.0%
K%
p6525.0%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
SI (28%)
CU (34%)
FB-0.6 (28%)
SL-3.0 (38%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 32 | 134 | 29 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 6.4% | 0.0% | 3.13 | 3.02 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 32 | 134 | 29 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 0.7% | 3.13 | 2.82 | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 15 | 0 | 21 | 87 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.6% | 13.9% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 3.48 | 4.14 | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 15 | 0 | 21 | 87 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.0% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 1.1% | 3.48 | 3.39 | — |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 56 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 0.9% | 4.07 | 2.95 | — |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 56 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.9% | 8.2% | 18.8% | 1.0% | 4.07 | 2.38 | — |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 48 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 16.1% | 3.2% | 5.52 | 3.85 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 48 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 17.4% | 3.3% | 5.52 | 3.78 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 43 | 5 | 55 | 236 | 69 | 21 | 7 | 12% | 1.3 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 19.9% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.29 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 43 | 5 | 55 | 236 | 69 | 21 | 7 | 12% | 1.3 | 29.2% | 8.9% | 20.3% | 3.0% | 3.90 | 3.39 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 3 | 17 | 64 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 23% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 1.98 | — |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 3 | 17 | 64 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 23% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 2.10 | — |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 55 | 243 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 14.2% | 2.4% | 4.07 | 3.48 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 55 | 243 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 6.2% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 4.07 | 3.37 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 5.5% | 21.0% | 1.2% | 3.29 | 2.23 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 5.4% | 23.1% | 0.8% | 3.29 | 1.83 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 66 | 0 | 68 | 289 | 72 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 8.5% | 16.3% | 3.5% | 4.10 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 56 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 7.7% | 15.8% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 47 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 47 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 4.40 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 38 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 4.0% | 4.78 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 52 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 7.7% | 15.8% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 39 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 4.40 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 26 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 4.0% | 4.78 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 292 | 2 | 314 | 1336 | 324 | 111 | 40 | 1% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.3% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.74 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 1 | 200 | 851 | 206 | 71 | 25 | 1% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.3% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 326 | 8 | 404 | 1705 | 406 | 143 | 35 | 2% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 15.4% | 2.0% | 3.88 | 3.27 | +10.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 162 | 4 | 200 | 845 | 201 | 71 | 17 | 2% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 15.4% | 2.0% | 3.88 | 3.27 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tommy Nance (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.46 | 24.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | — | 4.57 | 22.5% | 14.2% | 148 | +1.11 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 85 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 82 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.96 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 284 | 77 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 76 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 75 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 75 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 74 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 72 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.91 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.54 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.63 | 2.79 | 128 | 72 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.78 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .248 | 4.25 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.47 | 2.78 | 326 | 72 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 71 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 71 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2025 · 2.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.77 | 25.4% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 186 | 70 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.03 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.28 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.75 | 2.03 | 804 | 70 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 68 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.21 | 21.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 212 | 68 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.03 | 21.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | .279 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 17.7% | 153 | -0.03 | 1.87 | 407 | 68 |
| Will Harris R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.31 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 315 | 67 |
| Tony Barnette R 2025 · 2.63 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.63 | 25.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.63 | 144 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 23.1% | 7.6% | 1.23 | 4.15 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |