Tommy Nance
P
Toronto Blue Jays
+0.8
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA3.25
FIP3.49
xFIP3.55
SIERA3.60
K%24.2%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%17.4%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†6060
SI (30%)
CU (37%)
FB-0.6 (30%)
SL-3.0 (33%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 18 | 0 | 32 | 134 | 29 | 12 | 1 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 3.13 | 3.02 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 15 | 0 | 21 | 87 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 18.6% | 13.9% | 1.5% | 3.48 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 28 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 31 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 56 | 17 | 2 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 1.0% | 4.07 | 3.00 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 37 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 48 | 16 | 6 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 5.52 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 43 | 5 | 55 | 236 | 69 | 21 | 7 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.90 | 3.23 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 13 | 3 | 17 | 64 | 16 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 46 | 0 | 55 | 243 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 4.07 | 3.53 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 57 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 26.5% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 3.29 | 2.11 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 8 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 9 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.04 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TOR | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 46 | 13 | 4 | 24.3% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 3.24 | 3.58 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 53 | 227 | 55 | 17 | 5 | 24.3% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 3.79 | 3.06 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 23.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 3.61 | 3.81 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.83 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 39 | MLB | TOR | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 268 | 8 | 343 | 1453 | 343 | 123 | 25 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 3.91 | 3.12 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 5 | 200 | 846 | 200 | 72 | 15 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 3.91 | 3.12 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tommy Nance (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.58 | 24.3% | 6.8% | 2.3% | — | 3.98 | 22.7% | 15.0% | 137 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 81 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 79 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 79 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 79 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.03 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.25 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.22 | 3.01 | 119 | 79 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 78 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 78 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 77 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 76 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 75 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 75 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.97 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 284 | 74 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 74 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.4% | .248 | 4.29 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.40 | 2.89 | 326 | 74 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 74 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.04 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.25 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.79 | 2.03 | 804 | 74 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.21 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.44 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.23 | 3.21 | 225 | 73 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 73 |
| Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.45 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 426 | 72 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.43 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.54 | 2.80 | 128 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2021
Service 2.959 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $10M | +$3M | ||