Tommy Nance — OGILVIE

Tommy Nance P Minnesota Twins

Age 35 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9991vR 83

ERA3.27

FIP3.15

K%24.8%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%18.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p6825.6%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

SI (27%)

CU (29%)

FB-0.6 (28%)

SL-3.0 (44%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	32	134	29	12	1	0%	1.8	17.4%	11.0%	6.4%	0.0%	3.13	3.02	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	32	134	29	12	1	0%	1.8	21.6%	9.0%	12.7%	0.7%	3.13	2.82	—
2018	27	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	15	0	21	87	20	11	1	0%	1.4	18.6%	13.9%	4.7%	1.5%	3.48	4.09	—
2018	27	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	15	0	21	87	20	11	1	0%	1.4	23.0%	12.6%	10.3%	1.1%	3.48	3.39	—
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	49	208	56	17	2	0%	1.6	21.8%	9.3%	12.5%	1.0%	4.07	3.01	—
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	49	208	56	17	2	0%	1.6	26.9%	8.2%	18.8%	1.0%	4.07	2.38	—
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	44	184	48	16	6	0%	1.2	24.9%	8.8%	16.1%	3.4%	5.52	3.96	+0.3
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	44	184	48	16	6	0%	1.2	26.1%	8.7%	17.4%	3.3%	5.52	3.78	+0.4
2022	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	5	55	236	69	21	7	12%	1.3	29.1%	9.2%	19.9%	2.7%	3.90	3.28	+0.8
2022	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	43	5	55	236	69	21	7	12%	1.3	29.2%	8.9%	20.3%	3.0%	3.90	3.39	+0.8
2023	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	3	17	64	16	5	0	23%	1.3	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	0.0%	1.59	1.98	—
2023	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	3	17	64	16	5	0	23%	1.3	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	0.0%	1.59	1.98	—
2023	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	3	17	64	16	5	0	23%	1.3	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	0.0%	1.59	2.10	—
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	55	243	54	15	6	0%	1.2	19.8%	5.8%	13.9%	2.5%	4.07	3.54	+0.7
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	55	243	54	15	6	0%	1.2	19.8%	5.8%	13.9%	2.5%	4.07	3.54	+0.7
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	55	243	54	15	6	0%	1.2	22.2%	6.2%	16.0%	2.5%	4.07	3.37	+0.8
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	63	260	74	14	2	0%	1.1	25.7%	5.1%	20.6%	1.0%	3.29	2.12	+1.8
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	63	260	74	14	2	0%	1.1	25.7%	5.1%	20.6%	1.0%	3.29	2.12	+1.8
2025	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	63	260	74	14	2	0%	1.1	28.5%	5.4%	23.1%	0.8%	3.29	1.83	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			164	2	180	776	198	64	19	1%	1.1	25.5%	8.2%	17.3%	2.4%	4.25	3.34	+2.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	53	0	55	240	62	19	7	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.1%	17.5%	3.0%	4.25	3.60	+0.6
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	53	0	55	240	62	19	7	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.1%	17.5%	3.0%	4.25	3.60	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	AAA RAW	MIN	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	18.00	0.29	—
2026	35	MLB RAW	MIN	52	0	54	234	60	19	7	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.1%	17.5%	3.0%	4.00	3.61	+0.6
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	MIN	52	0	54	234	60	19	7	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.1%	17.5%	3.0%	4.00	3.61	+0.6
ROS	35	MLB MLE	MIN	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	24.8%	6.6%	18.2%	2.4%	3.27	3.15	+0.1
ROS	35	MLB CTX	MIN	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	24.8%	6.6%	18.2%	2.4%	3.27	3.15	+0.1
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	61	265	68	21	8	—	—	25.7%	7.8%	17.9%	2.9%	4.16	3.55	+0.7
FULL	35	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	60	253	68	21	8	—	—	27.0%	8.2%	18.8%	3.0%	4.23	3.51	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	MIN	54	0	57	239	56	17	7	0%	1.0	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	2.9%	3.90	3.99	+0.4
2028	37	MLB MLE	MIN	47	0	49	209	47	16	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.9%	14.6%	3.3%	4.20	4.40	+0.1
2029	38	MLB MLE	MIN	40	0	42	179	38	15	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	3.8%	4.58	4.83	-0.1
2027	36	MLB CTX	MIN	50	0	52	220	52	16	6	0%	1.0	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	2.9%	3.90	3.99	+0.3
2028	37	MLB CTX	MIN	39	0	41	173	39	14	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.9%	14.6%	3.3%	4.20	4.40	+0.1
2029	38	MLB CTX	MIN	28	0	29	122	26	11	5	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	3.8%	4.58	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		285	2	307	1311	320	105	36	1%	1.1	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	2.8%	4.20	3.57	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	1	200	855	209	68	23	1%	1.1	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	2.8%	4.20	3.57	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		313	8	391	1656	392	136	32	3%	1.2	23.7%	8.2%	15.4%	1.9%	3.89	3.20	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	4	200	848	201	70	16	3%	1.2	23.7%	8.2%	15.4%	1.9%	3.89	3.20	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy Nance (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.45	23.8%	5.6%	2.3%	—	4.37	22.6%	14.8%	148	+0.92	—	—	—
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	87
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	81
Jumbo Diaz R 2019 · 2.98 FIP	35	SU	2.98	25.0%	7.7%	1.8%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	284	78
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	77
Luis Ayala R 2015 · 3.03 FIP	37	SU	3.03	19.7%	5.0%	1.7%	.270	3.27	12.1%	5.9%	57	+0.24	3.03	119	76
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	75
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	73
Tony Pena Jr. R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	35	SU	2.87	21.5%	4.3%	1.9%	.249	3.43	10.9%	6.6%	22	+0.56	2.80	128	73
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	73
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	72
Joakim Soria R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	35	SU	3.52	28.4%	6.8%	3.6%	.246	3.45	25.1%	17.7%	60	-0.07	2.01	380	71
Brandon Morrow R 2018 · 2.82 FIP	34	SU	2.82	25.4%	7.4%	1.7%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	186	71
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	70
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	69
Carlos Torres R 2018 · 2.89 FIP	35	SU	2.89	22.3%	7.3%	1.4%	.248	4.28	17.8%	8.8%	62	+1.39	2.89	326	68
Tony Barnette R 2018 · 2.61 FIP	34	SU	2.61	25.0%	4.8%	1.8%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	2.61	144	68
Craig Stammen R 2019 · 3.82 FIP	35	SU	3.82	21.5%	3.8%	3.7%	.279	3.79	21.8%	17.7%	153	-0.03	1.82	407	68
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	67
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	66
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	34	SU	4.50	21.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	212	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	53	23.0%	7.2%	1.16	4.01
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47