Nick Dombkowski

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 226 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	30	12	82	3.64	4.26	19.8%	11.2%	—	K 16.5% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.92
2025	26	MIX3 levels	32	12	84	5.12	4.77	20.7%	8.8%	—	K 17.5% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.63
2026	27	MIX2 levels	35	17	112	5.22	4.43	22.1%	7.9%	—	K 18.7% · BB 7.3% · FIP 4.88
2027PROJ	28	MLBPIT	7	0	7	5.21	5.21	17.5%	8.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBPIT	18	0	19	5.20	5.25	17.8%	8.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBPIT	23	0	24	5.27	5.36	17.9%	9.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsChad Bell (age 28) · Kyle Hunter (age 28) · Randy Keisler (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%17.5%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	11	0	19	80	23	6	3	0%	1.7	21.3%	8.8%	12.4%	3.7%	3.86	4.48	—
2021	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	11	0	19	80	23	6	3	0%	1.7	28.7%	7.5%	21.2%	3.8%	3.86	3.69	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	2	67	280	86	19	7	6%	1.9	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	2.7%	3.07	3.71	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	2	67	280	86	19	7	6%	1.9	30.7%	6.8%	23.9%	2.5%	3.07	2.74	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	8	88	373	61	26	13	24%	2.6	13.2%	8.0%	5.2%	4.0%	4.19	5.18	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	8	88	373	61	26	13	24%	2.6	16.4%	7.0%	9.4%	3.5%	4.19	4.52	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	12	82	358	71	40	9	40%	2.7	16.5%	10.9%	5.6%	3.3%	3.64	4.92	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	12	82	358	71	40	9	40%	2.7	16.5%	10.9%	5.6%	3.3%	3.64	4.92	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	12	82	358	71	40	9	40%	2.7	19.8%	11.2%	8.7%	2.5%	3.64	4.26	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	12	84	362	75	32	15	38%	2.6	17.5%	8.1%	9.3%	5.4%	5.12	5.63	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	12	84	362	75	32	15	38%	2.6	17.5%	8.1%	9.3%	5.4%	5.12	5.63	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	12	84	362	75	32	15	38%	2.6	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	4.1%	5.12	4.77	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	112	479	106	38	19	49%	3.2	18.7%	7.3%	11.4%	4.4%	5.22	4.88	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	112	479	106	38	19	49%	3.2	18.7%	7.3%	11.4%	4.4%	5.22	4.88	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	17	112	479	106	38	19	49%	3.2	22.1%	7.9%	14.2%	4.0%	5.22	4.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	PIT	7	0	7	30	5	2	1	0%	1.0	17.5%	8.3%	9.2%	3.9%	5.21	5.21	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PIT	50	0	53	223	40	19	9	0%	1.1	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	4.0%	5.20	5.25	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	PIT	42	0	44	185	33	17	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	9.0%	8.9%	4.1%	5.27	5.36	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	PIT	18	0	19	80	14	7	3	0%	1.1	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	4.0%	5.20	5.25	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	PIT	23	0	24	101	18	9	4	0%	1.0	17.9%	9.0%	8.9%	4.1%	5.27	5.36	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	0	44	184	33	16	7	0%	1.1	17.9%	8.8%	9.1%	4.1%	5.24	4.93	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	74	32	0%	1.1	17.9%	8.8%	9.1%	4.1%	5.24	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		178	51	452	1932	341	163	78	29%	2.5	17.6%	8.4%	9.2%	4.0%	4.34	4.90	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	23	200	855	151	72	35	29%	2.5	17.6%	8.4%	9.2%	4.0%	4.34	4.90	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 84 IPFIP 4.88 → 5.24 (+0.36)K% 20.2% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.16%	—	×0.860	17.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.87%	—	×0.900	7.98%
HR / BF /BF	4.30%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.73%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.88 → 5.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 28 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.62 (+0.83)K% 29.0% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.97%	—	×0.810	23.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.67%	—	×1.100	5.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 71 IPFIP 5.01 → 5.63 (+0.63)K% 20.3% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.32%	—	×0.860	17.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.03%	—	×0.900	8.13%
HR / BF /BF	4.52%	÷0.915	×1.100	5.43%

Result: FIP 5.01 → 5.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 11 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.49 (+0.91)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.810	18.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.891	×1.200	3.06%

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 48 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.75 (+0.98)K% 19.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.31%	—	×0.810	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.43%	—	×1.100	8.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷0.844	×1.200	3.52%

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 33 IPFIP 4.81 → 5.14 (+0.34)K% 20.5% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.51%	—	×0.860	17.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.03%	—	×0.900	14.42%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.909	×1.100	3.10%

Result: FIP 4.81 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAltoona Curve · 85 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.18 (+0.52)K% 16.3% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.29%	—	×0.810	13.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.30%	—	×1.100	8.03%
HR / BF /BF	3.65%	÷1.106	×1.200	3.96%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAltoona Curve · 41 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.95 (+0.66)K% 25.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.810	20.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.29%	—	×1.100	6.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.084	×1.200	3.16%

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Dombkowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	17.5%	8.3%	3.9%	—	5.30	17.9%	9.1%	96	+0.09	—	—	—
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	84
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	81
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	79
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	78
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	78
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	78
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	77
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	76
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	73
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	72
Jake McSteen L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	28	SU	4.64	19.7%	6.4%	4.4%	.348	2.22	18.9%	13.2%	18	-2.42	2.22	286	72
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	71
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	71
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	70
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	69
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	68
Colton Turner L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	28	SW	4.23	22.4%	9.2%	3.4%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	325	68
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	67
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	67
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	17.7%	8.6%	1.55	5.22
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*