Nick Dombkowski — OGILVIE

Nick Dombkowski P Indianapolis Indians

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 226 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%16.1%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	11	0	19	80	23	6	3	0%	1.7	21.3%	8.8%	12.4%	3.7%	3.86	4.48	—
2021	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	11	0	19	80	23	6	3	0%	1.7	28.7%	7.5%	21.2%	3.8%	3.86	3.69	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	2	67	280	86	19	7	6%	1.9	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	2.7%	3.07	3.71	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	2	67	280	86	19	7	6%	1.9	30.7%	6.8%	23.9%	2.5%	3.07	2.74	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	8	88	373	61	26	13	24%	2.6	13.2%	8.0%	5.2%	4.0%	4.19	5.18	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	8	88	373	61	26	13	24%	2.6	13.2%	8.0%	5.2%	4.0%	4.19	5.18	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	8	88	373	61	26	13	24%	2.6	16.4%	7.0%	9.4%	3.5%	4.19	4.52	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	12	82	358	71	40	9	40%	2.7	16.2%	10.9%	5.3%	3.3%	3.64	4.94	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	12	82	358	71	40	9	40%	2.7	16.2%	10.9%	5.3%	3.3%	3.64	4.94	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	12	82	358	71	40	9	40%	2.7	19.8%	11.2%	8.7%	2.5%	3.64	4.26	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	12	84	362	75	32	15	38%	2.6	16.9%	8.1%	8.7%	5.4%	5.12	5.69	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	12	84	362	75	32	15	38%	2.6	16.9%	8.1%	8.7%	5.4%	5.12	5.69	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	12	84	362	75	32	15	38%	2.6	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	4.1%	5.12	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	34	16	107	457	100	36	19	47%	3.1	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	4.6%	5.21	5.05	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	34	16	107	457	100	36	19	47%	3.1	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	4.6%	5.21	5.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	PIT	7	6	28	107	31	5	3	86%	4.0	29.0%	4.7%	24.3%	2.8%	2.89	2.78	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	PIT	27	10	79	350	69	31	16	37%	2.9	19.7%	8.9%	10.9%	4.6%	6.04	5.07	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	PIT	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.1%	9.5%	6.6%	3.8%	5.43	5.43	-0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	113	482	104	38	20	—	—	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	4.1%	5.23	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PIT	65	0	68	287	48	27	11	0%	1.0	16.7%	9.6%	7.1%	3.9%	5.37	5.40	-0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	PIT	62	0	65	274	46	27	11	0%	1.0	16.9%	9.8%	7.2%	3.9%	5.39	5.45	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	PIT	28	0	29	122	20	12	5	0%	1.0	16.7%	9.6%	7.1%	3.9%	5.37	5.40	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	PIT	36	0	38	160	27	16	6	0%	1.1	16.9%	9.8%	7.2%	3.9%	5.39	5.45	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	68	286	48	28	11	0%	1.1	16.8%	9.7%	7.1%	3.9%	5.38	5.05	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	83	32	0%	1.1	16.8%	9.7%	7.1%	3.9%	5.38	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		177	50	447	1910	330	161	78	28%	2.5	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	4.1%	4.33	4.96	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	22	200	855	148	72	35	28%	2.5	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	4.1%	4.33	4.96	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Dombkowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	16.1%	9.5%	3.8%	—	5.42	16.8%	7.1%	133	-0.01	—	—	—
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	79
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	412	79
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	79
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	77
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	73
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	73
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	72
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	72
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	71
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	71
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	70
Ryan Kellogg L 2021 · 4.33 FIP	27	SW	4.33	12.3%	5.2%	2.9%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	446	70
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	70
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	70
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	70
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	69
Ben Onyshko L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	16.1%	10.2%	2.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	69
Kyle Hunter L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	27	SU	4.48	11.2%	9.9%	1.9%	.295	4.50	14.0%	7.9%	72	+0.02	4.32	188	68
Colten Schmidt L 2023 · 5.23 FIP	27	SW	5.23	14.4%	8.0%	4.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	163	68
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	16.5%	9.6%	1.50	5.40
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50