Brandon Waddell
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 32
LHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION68 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.74
FIP5.03
xFIP4.95
SIERA4.64
K%14.7%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%6.3%
IP68
K†3030
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1090.7
Whiff%
p1720.6%
K%
p1016.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.360
FB+3.9 (44%)
SI (21%)
CH-1.2 (15%)
SL-2.8 (41%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | 27 | 25 | 147 | 624 | 120 | 62 | 10 | 15.4% | 10.9% | 1.8% | 3.49 | 4.20 | +2.1 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 16 | 15 | 69 | 293 | 60 | 27 | 3 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 1.2% | 3.39 | 3.73 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 28 | 23 | 135 | 576 | 103 | 55 | 7 | 15.2% | 10.2% | 1.7% | 3.59 | 4.04 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 36 | 14 | 97 | 449 | 111 | 48 | 11 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 6.29 | 4.39 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 3.70 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 20 | 0 | 23 | 105 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 16.7% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 23 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 33 | 10 | 1 | 22.7% | 8.2% | 0.8% | 3.30 | 2.65 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 17 | 109 | 473 | 91 | 36 | 16 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.35 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 4 | 2 | 11 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 17.3% | 2.1% | 6.5% | 7.15 | 5.46 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 42 | 24 | 9 | 14.7% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 80 | 339 | 52 | 25 | 12 | 15.4% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 5.08 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 39 | 24 | 9 | 14.7% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.24 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 35 | 23 | 9 | 14.5% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 5.26 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 30 | 22 | 9 | 13.9% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 5.53 | 5.76 | -0.7 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 25 | 20 | 8 | 13.2% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 5.85 | 6.09 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 187 | 96 | 625 | 2713 | 462 | 272 | 60 | 17.0% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 31 | 200 | 868 | 148 | 87 | 19 | 17.0% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Waddell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 14.7% | 8.3% | 3.2% | — | 5.48 | 14.4% | 5.0% | 171 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.70 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 198 | 82 |
| Craig Breslow L 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 77 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.18 | 12.0% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 360 | 73 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.45 | 11.0% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 10.33 | 9.6% | 3.8% | 13 | +5.88 | 3.53 | 282 | 73 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.33 | 13.3% | 14.4% | 2.8% | .253 | 3.86 | 21.8% | 14.4% | 64 | -1.47 | 1.32 | 182 | 73 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 72 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 72 |
| Josh Outman L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.26 | 12.7% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .322 | 6.40 | 12.9% | -5.6% | 34 | +1.14 | 4.70 | 106 | 72 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.56 | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 368 | 71 |
| Brett Cecil L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.45 | 12.1% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.96 | 191 | 71 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 71 |
| Jason Vargas L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.29 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.63 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.34 | 3.87 | 478 | 71 |
| John Danks L 2025 · 5.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.79 | 16.0% | 11.0% | 4.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 200 | 69 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.87 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 68 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.21 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .376 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 11.1% | 53 | +0.64 | 4.07 | 424 | 67 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.79 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 3.8% | .403 | 5.24 | 14.8% | 1.6% | 45 | -0.55 | 2.79 | 181 | 67 |
| Neal Cotts L 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 65 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.58 | 5.6% | 12.5% | 2.5% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 162 | 65 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 65 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.70 | 16.8% | 11.3% | 4.7% | .380 | 4.02 | 18.5% | 5.4% | 36 | -1.68 | 3.03 | 299 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.