Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | A | West Virginia Power | 5 | 5 | 25 | 114 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 100% | 5.1 | 11.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 5.33 | 4.64 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | West Virginia Power | 5 | 5 | 25 | 114 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 100% | 5.1 | 14.9% | 4.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 5.33 | 3.89 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 2 | 37 | 148 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 10% | 1.8 | 25.7% | 3.8% | 21.8% | 0.0% | 2.89 | 1.42 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 2 | 37 | 148 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 10% | 1.8 | 31.8% | 7.4% | 24.3% | 2.0% | 2.89 | 2.51 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 13 | 88 | 375 | 81 | 36 | 9 | 42% | 2.8 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.00 | 4.42 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 13 | 88 | 375 | 81 | 36 | 9 | 42% | 2.8 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 4.00 | 3.82 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 26 | 20 | 104 | 483 | 85 | 49 | 23 | 77% | 4.0 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.51 | 5.34 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 26 | 20 | 104 | 483 | 85 | 49 | 23 | 77% | 4.0 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 6.51 | 5.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 67 | 0 | 70 | 297 | 63 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 62 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 58 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 58 | 0 | 61 | 256 | 53 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 0 | 61 | 254 | 52 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.53 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 0 | 200 | 839 | 172 | 89 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 83 | 40 | 254 | 1120 | 195 | 100 | 34 | 48% | 3.1 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 5.00 | 4.44 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 31 | 200 | 882 | 154 | 79 | 27 | 48% | 3.1 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 5.00 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Fisher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.89 | 20.9% | 10.8% | 126 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 73 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 72 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 70 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 68 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 67 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 66 |
| Matt Moore L 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.79 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .334 | 5.49 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.70 | 2.82 | 845 | 66 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.32 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 4.8% | .337 | 4.73 | 15.6% | 4.4% | 86 | -0.59 | 3.36 | 764 | 64 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 64 |
| Mike Kickham L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.00 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .311 | 5.91 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 61 | +1.91 | 3.00 | 368 | 64 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 63 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 62 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.86 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 523 | 62 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.70 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 154 | +0.08 | 4.40 | 713 | 62 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 61 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 60 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 60 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2024 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 59 |
| Andy Otero L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.38 | 14.5% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 200 | 59 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 12.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | .286 | 3.83 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 119 | -1.11 | 2.69 | 233 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 1.29 | 4.73 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |