Trenton Wallace
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 27
LHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 92 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122131vR 140
ERA5.39
FIP5.39
K%23.8%
BB%15.8%
K-BB%8.0%
ROS IP93
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 5 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 30.6% | 25.0% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 4.32 | 3.69 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 5 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 30.6% | 25.0% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 4.32 | 3.70 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 14 | 80 | 322 | 110 | 44 | 3 | 70% | 4.0 | 25.8% | 15.8% | 10.0% | 1.3% | 2.36 | 3.67 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 14 | 80 | 322 | 110 | 44 | 3 | 70% | 4.0 | 34.2% | 13.7% | 20.5% | 0.9% | 2.36 | 2.49 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 12 | 12 | 51 | 209 | 59 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 1.1% | 2.65 | 2.75 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 12 | 12 | 51 | 209 | 59 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 4.3 | 28.2% | 8.1% | 20.1% | 1.0% | 2.65 | 2.30 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 114 | 487 | 129 | 57 | 20 | 100% | 4.4 | 21.9% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 3.72 | 5.09 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 114 | 487 | 129 | 57 | 20 | 100% | 4.4 | 26.5% | 11.7% | 14.8% | 4.1% | 3.72 | 4.62 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 10 | 55 | 242 | 67 | 38 | 6 | 37% | 2.0 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 3.95 | 5.34 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 10 | 55 | 242 | 67 | 38 | 6 | 37% | 2.0 | 27.7% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 4.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 134 | 565 | 134 | 89 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 5.39 | 5.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 130 | 548 | 129 | 83 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 15.1% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 5.33 | 5.36 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 124 | 523 | 121 | 77 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 14.8% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.34 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 55 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 15.1% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 5.33 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 71 | 46 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 14.8% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.34 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 128 | 542 | 126 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 14.9% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 5.34 | 5.01 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 126 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 14.9% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 5.34 | 5.01 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 90 | 62 | 308 | 1296 | 309 | 178 | 36 | 69% | 3.4 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 3.25 | 4.37 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 40 | 200 | 842 | 201 | 116 | 24 | 69% | 3.4 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 3.25 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trenton Wallace (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 3.5% | — | 5.38 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 254 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 73 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .312 | 3.34 | 26.6% | 15.2% | 121 | -1.19 | 3.14 | 473 | 72 |
| Tommy Vail L 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 68 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 67 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 66 |
| Luis Ysla L 2026 · 6.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.13 | 18.0% | 14.4% | 5.0% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 378 | 65 |
| Garrett Williams L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 24.9% | 14.2% | 3.3% | .323 | 4.39 | 24.3% | -0.2% | 53 | -0.21 | 3.36 | 470 | 65 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 65 |
| Luis Lugo L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.09 | 19.5% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 622 | 65 |
| Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 64 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 64 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2023 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 63 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.0% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.44 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 34 | -0.20 | 3.68 | 332 | 63 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.84 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .275 | 5.64 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.80 | 2.96 | 379 | 63 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .308 | 4.02 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 81 | -0.68 | 3.38 | 353 | 62 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 62 |
| David Peterson L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .356 | 3.54 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 440 | -0.66 | 2.80 | 1,080 | 60 |
| Chris Reed L 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 59 |
| Nick Allgeyer L 2026 · 6.21 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.21 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 5.4% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 390 | 59 |
| Steven Brault L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | .301 | 3.75 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 70 | -0.60 | 3.14 | 691 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 129 | 23.5% | 15.3% | 1.38 | 5.35 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |