Trenton Wallace

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 28 LHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX4 levels	12	12	51	2.65	2.30	28.2%	8.1%	—	K 23.2% · BB 8.1% · FIP 2.87
2024	25	MIX2 levels	26	26	114	3.72	4.62	26.5%	11.7%	—	K 21.8% · BB 11.8% · FIP 5.16
2025	26	MIX2 levels	27	10	55	3.95	4.16	27.7%	15.7%	—	K 24.2% · BB 14.0% · FIP 4.69
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBTOR	2	2	13	4.99	4.99	23.8%	13.9%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBTOR	6	6	39	4.99	5.04	23.4%	13.5%	0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBTOR	8	8	51	5.07	5.16	22.9%	13.4%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control30Command45

CompsTyler Alexander (age 27) · Hogan Harris (age 27) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%23.8%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP134

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	5	0	8	36	11	9	0	0%	1.7	30.6%	25.0%	5.6%	0.0%	4.32	3.69	—
2021	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	5	0	8	36	11	9	0	0%	1.7	30.6%	25.0%	5.6%	0.0%	4.32	3.70	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	14	80	322	110	44	3	70%	4.0	25.8%	15.8%	10.0%	1.3%	2.36	3.62	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	14	80	322	110	44	3	70%	4.0	34.2%	13.7%	20.5%	0.9%	2.36	2.49	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	51	209	59	17	2	100%	4.3	23.2%	8.1%	15.1%	1.3%	2.65	2.87	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	12	12	51	209	59	17	2	100%	4.3	28.2%	8.1%	20.1%	1.0%	2.65	2.30	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	114	487	129	57	20	100%	4.4	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	4.4%	3.72	5.16	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	114	487	129	57	20	100%	4.4	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	4.4%	3.72	5.16	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	114	487	129	57	20	100%	4.4	26.5%	11.7%	14.8%	4.1%	3.72	4.62	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	10	55	242	67	38	6	37%	2.0	24.2%	14.0%	10.2%	3.4%	3.95	4.69	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	10	55	242	67	38	6	37%	2.0	24.2%	14.0%	10.2%	3.4%	3.95	4.69	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	10	55	242	67	38	6	37%	2.0	27.7%	15.7%	12.0%	2.5%	3.95	4.16	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TOR	2	2	13	55	13	8	2	100%	6.5	23.8%	13.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.99	4.99	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	107	453	106	61	15	100%	6.0	23.4%	13.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.99	5.04	+0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	92	387	89	52	14	100%	6.1	22.9%	13.4%	9.5%	3.5%	5.07	5.16	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	39	165	38	22	5	100%	6.5	23.4%	13.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.99	5.04	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	51	215	49	29	8	100%	6.4	22.9%	13.4%	9.5%	3.5%	5.07	5.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	15	90	380	88	51	13	100%	6.0	23.1%	13.4%	9.7%	3.4%	5.03	4.73	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	196	113	29	100%	6.0	23.1%	13.4%	9.7%	3.4%	5.03	4.73	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		90	62	308	1296	307	168	36	69%	3.4	23.7%	13.0%	10.7%	2.8%	3.25	4.28	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	40	200	842	200	109	24	69%	3.4	23.7%	13.0%	10.7%	2.8%	3.25	4.28	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 52 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.69 (+0.56)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.14%	—	×0.860	24.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.58%	—	×0.900	14.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.847	×1.100	3.37%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 81 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.65 (+0.70)K% 29.8% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.85%	—	×0.810	24.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.23%	—	×1.100	10.15%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.145	×1.200	4.19%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 129).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 33 IPFIP 5.91 → 6.20 (+0.29)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.75%	—	×0.860	16.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×0.900	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.32%	÷0.990	×1.100	4.80%

Result: FIP 5.91 → 6.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 40 IPFIP 2.15 → 2.87 (+0.72)K% 30.1% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.13%	—	×0.770	23.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.05%	—	×1.150	8.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷1.253	×1.250	1.28%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 2.15 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 8 IPFIP 2.57 → 2.95 (+0.38)K% 17.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.50%	—	×0.810	14.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×1.100	8.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.57 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Vancouver Canadians · 39 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.48 (+1.16)K% 32.0% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.98%	—	×0.770	24.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.02%	—	×1.150	20.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷0.952	×1.250	1.53%

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 41 IPFIP 1.47 → 2.62 (+1.16)K% 36.7% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.67%	—	×0.740	27.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.67%	—	×1.180	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.67%	÷0.916	×1.300	0.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 1.47 → 2.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADunedin Blue Jays · 8 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.93 (+1.24)K% 30.6% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.740	22.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.180	29.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.010	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trenton Wallace (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	23.8%	13.9%	3.2%	—	5.10	23.2%	9.7%	199	+0.11	—	—	—
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	73
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	70
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	68
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	64
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	63
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	63
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	62
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	61
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	61
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	59
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	59
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	58
Jonathan Bermúdez L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	28	SP	4.79	19.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	469	58
Rio Gomez L 2023 · 5.24 FIP	28	SP-	5.24	21.6%	11.9%	4.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.54	246	58
Jared Koenig L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	28	SP-	4.06	18.1%	7.4%	2.8%	.308	3.29	23.6%	15.8%	187	-0.77	2.79	475	58
Andy Oliver L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	28	SP-	3.93	19.9%	9.9%	2.3%	.321	7.12	16.6%	2.7%	21	+3.19	3.93	187	58
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	57
Darrell May L 2002 · 5.40 FIP	30	SP-	5.40	16.4%	8.1%	4.8%	.284	5.02	13.5%	7.2%	462	-0.38	4.24	657	57
Chris Narveson L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.9%	7.7%	2.8%	.296	4.01	18.0%	8.8%	162	+0.01	4.00	625	56
Nick Allgeyer L 2023 · 5.65 FIP	27	SW	5.65	18.9%	12.1%	4.8%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	390	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	111	23.4%	13.6%	1.29	5.01
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*
Floyd Youmans ('85-'89, 6 WAR*)	2.7	108	23.5%*	11.9%*	1.06*	4.23*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14