Trenton Wallace — OGILVIE

Trenton Wallace P Buffalo Bisons

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%22.9%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	5	0	8	36	11	9	0	0%	1.7	30.6%	25.0%	5.6%	0.0%	4.32	3.69	—
2021	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	5	0	8	36	11	9	0	0%	1.7	30.6%	25.0%	5.6%	0.0%	4.32	3.70	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	14	80	322	110	44	3	70%	4.0	25.8%	15.8%	10.0%	1.3%	2.36	3.62	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	14	80	322	110	44	3	70%	4.0	34.2%	13.7%	20.5%	0.9%	2.36	2.49	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	51	209	59	17	2	100%	4.3	23.2%	8.1%	15.1%	1.3%	2.65	2.87	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	51	209	59	17	2	100%	4.3	23.2%	8.1%	15.1%	1.3%	2.65	2.87	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	12	12	51	209	59	17	2	100%	4.3	28.2%	8.1%	20.1%	1.0%	2.65	2.30	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	114	487	129	57	20	100%	4.4	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	4.4%	3.72	5.18	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	114	487	129	57	20	100%	4.4	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	4.4%	3.72	5.18	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	114	487	129	57	20	100%	4.4	26.5%	11.7%	14.8%	4.1%	3.72	4.62	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	10	55	242	67	38	6	37%	2.0	23.4%	14.0%	9.3%	3.4%	3.95	4.76	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	10	55	242	67	38	6	37%	2.0	23.4%	14.0%	9.3%	3.4%	3.95	4.76	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	10	55	242	67	38	6	37%	2.0	27.7%	15.7%	12.0%	2.5%	3.95	4.16	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TOR	2	2	11	46	11	6	2	100%	5.5	22.9%	13.8%	9.1%	3.4%	5.14	5.14	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	130	548	124	73	19	100%	5.9	22.7%	13.3%	9.3%	3.4%	5.10	5.13	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	124	523	117	69	19	100%	5.9	22.4%	13.1%	9.3%	3.5%	5.13	5.20	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	116	492	108	65	18	100%	6.1	22.0%	13.2%	8.9%	3.7%	5.23	5.33	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	55	232	53	31	8	100%	6.1	22.7%	13.3%	9.3%	3.4%	5.10	5.13	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	73	308	69	40	11	100%	6.1	22.4%	13.1%	9.3%	3.5%	5.13	5.20	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	82	346	76	46	13	100%	5.9	22.0%	13.2%	8.9%	3.7%	5.23	5.33	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	35	210	888	198	117	32	100%	6.0	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	3.6%	5.16	4.85	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	111	30	100%	6.0	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	3.6%	5.16	4.85	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		90	62	308	1296	304	168	36	69%	3.4	23.5%	13.0%	10.5%	2.8%	3.25	4.30	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	40	200	842	198	109	24	69%	3.4	23.5%	13.0%	10.5%	2.8%	3.25	4.30	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trenton Wallace (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	22.9%	13.8%	3.4%	—	5.22	22.4%	9.2%	370	+0.08	—	—	—
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	77
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.59	20.9%	12.2%	172	-1.79	2.32	359	76
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	75
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.84	21.0%	6.1%	51	+0.83	3.51	432	73
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	72
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	72
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.94	19.6%	8.8%	307	+0.65	3.59	520	69
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	69
Luis Ysla L 2019 · 5.78 FIP	27	SP-	5.78	18.0%	14.4%	4.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	378	67
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	67
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	66
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	66
Luis Lugo L 2021 · 5.21 FIP	27	SP-	5.21	19.5%	13.2%	3.8%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	622	66
Alex Troop L 2023 · 5.03 FIP	27	SP-	5.03	17.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.275	5.10	17.3%	10.5%	43	+0.07	2.93	379	66
Garrett Williams L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP-	4.71	24.9%	14.2%	3.5%	.323	4.06	22.9%	1.9%	53	-0.65	3.37	470	65
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	65
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	64
Cam Alldred L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	27	SP-	4.69	18.0%	9.1%	3.5%	.283	4.17	18.1%	7.7%	34	-0.52	3.70	332	63
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	63
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	126	22.5%	13.4%	1.36	5.15
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54