Jonathan Bermúdez

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 226 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	AAASF	24	19	81	9.00	6.42	20.8%	11.3%	—	K 18.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 6.66
2023	27	AAMIA	19	18	94	4.58	3.96	26.6%	9.5%	—	K 21.5% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.67
2024	28	MIX3 levels	24	19	108	3.67	4.32	22.4%	11.3%	1.4	K 19.2% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.79
2025	29	No MLB games played
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIA	1	1	1	4.76	4.76	21.0%	11.0%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	32	MLBMIA	3	3	18	4.85	4.94	20.8%	11.2%	0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	33	MLBMIA	4	4	24	5.01	5.14	20.5%	11.5%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsLuke Westphal (age 32) · Santiago Gutierrez (age 31) · Sean Nolin (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 124

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%21.0%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	10	0	14	57	10	5	1	0%	1.4	11.9%	11.0%	1.0%	2.5%	3.29	4.83	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	10	0	14	57	10	5	1	0%	1.4	17.5%	8.8%	8.8%	1.8%	3.29	3.69	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	10	78	321	93	31	4	43%	3.4	20.6%	10.8%	9.8%	1.9%	3.71	3.77	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	10	78	321	93	31	4	43%	3.4	29.0%	9.7%	19.3%	1.2%	3.71	2.57	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	111	457	146	34	10	80%	4.4	26.5%	8.0%	18.4%	2.5%	3.24	3.24	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	111	457	146	34	10	80%	4.4	31.9%	7.4%	24.5%	2.2%	3.24	2.56	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	24	19	81	390	81	44	23	79%	3.4	18.3%	11.8%	6.4%	6.6%	9.00	6.66	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	24	19	81	390	81	44	23	79%	3.4	20.8%	11.3%	9.5%	5.9%	9.00	6.42	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	19	18	94	410	109	39	14	95%	5.0	21.5%	10.5%	11.1%	3.8%	4.58	4.67	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	19	18	94	410	109	39	14	95%	5.0	26.6%	9.5%	17.1%	3.4%	4.58	3.96	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	19	108	459	103	52	14	79%	4.5	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.2%	3.67	4.79	+0.8
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	19	108	459	103	52	14	79%	4.5	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.2%	3.67	4.79	+0.8
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	19	108	459	103	52	14	79%	4.5	22.4%	11.3%	11.1%	3.1%	3.67	4.32	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	1	7	33	4	2	2	33%	2.2	12.1%	6.1%	6.1%	6.1%	8.10	6.70	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.0%	11.0%	10.0%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	56	239	50	27	8	100%	6.3	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	3.3%	4.85	4.94	+0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	48	201	41	23	7	100%	5.9	20.5%	11.5%	9.0%	3.5%	5.01	5.14	+0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIA	3	3	18	76	16	9	2	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	3.3%	4.85	4.94	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	24	101	21	12	4	100%	6.0	20.5%	11.5%	9.0%	3.5%	5.01	5.14	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	8	49	211	41	22	8	80%	4.9	19.3%	10.6%	8.7%	3.8%	5.37	4.91	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	33	200	864	168	90	33	80%	4.9	19.3%	10.6%	8.7%	3.8%	5.37	4.91	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		125	86	486	2094	441	223	75	69%	3.9	21.1%	10.6%	10.4%	3.6%	4.63	4.62	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	35	200	862	182	92	31	69%	3.9	21.1%	10.6%	10.4%	3.6%	4.63	4.62	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 75 IPFIP 4.24 → 4.95 (+0.72)K% 23.0% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.95%	—	×0.810	18.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.48%	—	×1.100	12.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.95%	÷1.064	×1.200	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 4.24 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 27 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.39 (+0.38)K% 24.0% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.97%	—	×0.860	20.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.40%	—	×0.900	11.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷0.925	×1.100	2.95%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 94 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.67 (+0.73)K% 26.6% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.59%	—	×0.810	21.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.51%	—	×1.100	10.46%
HR / BF /BF	3.41%	÷1.091	×1.200	3.76%

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 81 IPFIP 6.01 → 6.66 (+0.65)K% 20.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.77%	—	×0.880	18.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.28%	—	×1.050	11.85%
HR / BF /BF	5.90%	÷0.989	×1.100	6.56%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 6.01 → 6.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 79 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.09 (+0.74)K% 32.3% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.32%	—	×0.810	26.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.40%	—	×1.100	7.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.074	×1.200	2.38%

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 32 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.64 (+0.60)K% 31.0% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.01%	—	×0.880	27.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×1.050	10.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷0.935	×1.100	2.73%

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 68 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.77 (+1.09)K% 27.8% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.82%	—	×0.740	20.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.15%	—	×1.180	10.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷0.964	×1.300	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 10 IPFIP 1.62 → 2.39 (+0.78)K% 37.8% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.84%	—	×0.810	30.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×1.100	14.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.067	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.62 → 2.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Bermúdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	21.0%	11.0%	3.0%	—	5.03	20.6%	9.3%	104	+0.27	—	—	—
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	69
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	68
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.87	19.3%	12.9%	23	+1.33	3.79	309	65
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	64
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	63
Joey Lucchesi L 2024 · 4.73 FIP	31	SP-	4.73	14.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.293	3.65	22.6%	15.8%	102	-1.08	3.12	817	62
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	61
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	61
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	60
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	59
Anthony Vasquez L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	31	SW	4.64	17.1%	8.9%	3.4%	.322	6.00	14.6%	7.3%	85	+1.36	4.02	671	59
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	58
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	58
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	57
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	57
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	56
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	56
Kelvin Marte L 2019 · 5.25 FIP	31	SP	5.25	12.0%	10.8%	3.3%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	360	55
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	55
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	20.4%	11.0%	1.30	4.98
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*