Jonathan Bermúdez
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
+0.6
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 226 lbs
AA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
xFIP6.49
SIERA5.09
K%21.7%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%11.0%
IP97
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5055
CH (12%)
SL-1.0 (39%)
FB-3.9 (50%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Astros | 10 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 11.9% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 3.29 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 23 | 10 | 78 | 321 | 93 | 31 | 4 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.9% | 3.71 | 3.78 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | 25 | 20 | 111 | 457 | 146 | 34 | 10 | 26.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 3.24 | 3.26 | +2.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 24 | 19 | 81 | 390 | 81 | 44 | 23 | 18.3% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 9.00 | 6.65 | -1.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 19 | 18 | 94 | 410 | 109 | 39 | 14 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 24 | 19 | 108 | 459 | 103 | 52 | 14 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 3.67 | 4.85 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 18 | 97 | 408 | 89 | 44 | 13 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 85 | 42 | 12 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.73 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 90 | 378 | 80 | 40 | 12 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 86 | 361 | 76 | 38 | 12 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 71 | 37 | 12 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 4.94 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 72 | 33 | 11 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.80 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 66 | 31 | 11 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 125 | 86 | 486 | 2094 | 442 | 225 | 75 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 35 | 200 | 862 | 182 | 93 | 31 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Bermúdez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.78 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 268 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Jorge Castillo L 2029 · 4.49 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 4.82 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.33 | 4.49 | 408 | 79 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 154 | +0.24 | 4.34 | 713 | 74 |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 73 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2023 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 72 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .300 | 5.25 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.49 | 3.44 | 360 | 72 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 72 |
| Tomas Solis L 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 72 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 71 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .367 | 4.15 | 15.9% | 10.3% | 97 | +0.17 | 3.98 | 280 | 70 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 311 | 69 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 69 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 69 |
| James Gillheeney L 2023 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 67 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2023 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 66 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.86 | 13.1% | -1.1% | 60 | +0.23 | 3.74 | 333 | 65 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.86 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 188 | 64 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.92 | 14.8% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .350 | 4.94 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 121 | +1.02 | 3.91 | 341 | 64 |
| Drew Pomeranz L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.28 | 30.1% | 9.7% | 4.5% | .332 | 2.49 | 33.7% | 22.9% | 44 | -1.79 | 2.07 | 722 | 63 |
| Drew Smyly L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.24 | 24.1% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .305 | 4.29 | 22.7% | 16.0% | 259 | -0.95 | 1.80 | 840 | 63 |
| Joey Lucchesi L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.65 | 18.0% | 10.6% | 3.1% | .287 | 4.53 | 17.2% | 7.4% | 184 | -0.12 | 3.19 | 783 | 62 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2030
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.3M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $7M | +$3M | ||