Ken Waldichuk — OGILVIE

Ken Waldichuk P Washington Nationals

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.32

FIP5.58

K%20.9%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†5050

CU (41%)

CH (1%)

CT (18%)

SL-1.0 (7%)

FB-1.1 (33%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	110	453	163	51	13	91%	4.8	28.7%	12.5%	16.1%	3.3%	3.03	4.06	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	110	453	163	51	13	91%	4.8	36.0%	11.3%	24.7%	2.9%	3.03	3.06	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	130	543	170	46	15	100%	4.6	27.7%	8.9%	18.8%	2.9%	3.40	3.51	+2.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	130	543	170	46	15	100%	4.6	31.3%	8.5%	22.8%	2.8%	3.40	3.05	+3.0
2023	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	35	22	141	639	132	70	24	63%	4.0	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	4.1%	5.36	5.01	-0.2
2023	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	35	22	141	639	132	70	24	63%	4.0	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	4.1%	5.36	5.01	-0.2
2023	25	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	35	22	141	639	132	70	24	63%	4.0	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	3.8%	5.36	4.93	-0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	54	264	68	42	13	94%	3.2	21.0%	14.9%	6.1%	4.8%	8.17	5.84	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	54	264	68	42	13	94%	3.2	21.0%	14.9%	6.1%	4.8%	8.17	5.84	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	54	264	68	42	13	94%	3.2	25.8%	15.9%	9.8%	4.9%	8.17	6.04	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			47	29	185	826	173	86	33	62%	3.9	20.9%	10.4%	10.5%	4.0%	5.35	4.94	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	5	0	9	41	8	6	4	0%	1.9	—	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	5	0	9	41	8	6	4	0%	1.9	—	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	WSH	5	0	9	41	8	6	4	0%	1.9	19.5%	14.6%	4.9%	9.8%	6.75	8.66	—
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	WSH	5	0	9	41	8	6	4	0%	1.9	19.5%	14.6%	4.9%	9.8%	6.75	8.66	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	WSH	2	0	2	9	2	1	0	0%	1.1	20.9%	14.2%	6.7%	3.8%	5.32	5.58	-0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	WSH	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	14.2%	6.7%	3.8%	5.32	5.58	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	12	50	10	7	4	—	—	19.8%	14.6%	5.2%	8.7%	6.48	1.05	+0.5
FULL	28	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	12	49	10	7	4	—	—	20.4%	15.0%	5.4%	8.9%	6.48	8.19	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	133	563	113	82	25	100%	6.1	20.2%	14.5%	5.7%	4.4%	5.84	6.01	-1.6
2028	30	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	125	529	103	78	24	100%	6.0	19.4%	14.8%	4.7%	4.6%	6.06	6.21	-1.8
2027	29	MLB CTX	WSH	21	21	127	536	108	78	23	100%	6.0	20.2%	14.5%	5.7%	4.4%	5.84	6.01	-1.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	119	502	98	74	23	100%	6.0	19.4%	14.8%	4.7%	4.6%	6.06	6.21	-1.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	70	433	1872	380	239	80	78%	4.8	20.3%	12.8%	7.5%	4.2%	5.69	5.33	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	32	200	865	176	110	37	78%	4.8	20.3%	12.8%	7.5%	4.2%	5.69	5.33	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		108	87	444	1940	476	220	74	81%	4.1	24.5%	11.4%	13.1%	3.8%	4.58	4.56	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	39	200	874	214	99	33	81%	4.1	24.5%	11.4%	13.1%	3.8%	4.58	4.56	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ken Waldichuk (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	20.9%	14.2%	3.8%	—	6.11	19.8%	5.2%	259	+0.53	—	—	—
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	70
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	67
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	65
Aríel Miranda L 2017 · 5.62 FIP	28	SP	5.62	20.2%	9.1%	5.6%	.233	4.21	17.9%	5.1%	45	-1.41	3.46	431	64
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	64
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	63
Hogan Harris L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	26	SP-	5.39	18.4%	11.3%	4.4%	.298	3.90	23.5%	11.8%	273	-1.49	3.11	495	61
Blair Walters L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	262	61
Héctor Santiago L 2016 · 5.12 FIP	28	SP	5.12	18.3%	10.1%	4.2%	.257	5.09	20.1%	8.4%	310	-0.03	4.32	713	61
Cade Gibson L 2023 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	15.0%	8.5%	3.0%	.306	3.43	18.9%	9.4%	222	-1.14	3.13	340	60
Nate Fisher L 2023 · 5.52 FIP	27	SP-	5.52	14.6%	9.1%	4.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	229	60
Kyle Hart L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	28	SP	4.88	17.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.262	4.55	17.9%	9.0%	172	-0.33	3.60	884	60
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	60
Ty Damron L 2022 · 5.65 FIP	28	SP	5.65	14.8%	9.1%	4.8%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.29	346	59
Jeff Locke L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	12.9%	7.1%	3.3%	.309	4.18	17.1%	9.2%	32	-0.51	3.79	328	59
Dietrich Enns L 2019 · 6.75 FIP	28	SP	6.75	14.6%	9.3%	6.8%	.332	2.96	28.4%	21.6%	94	-3.79	2.80	768	59
Michael Roth L 2018 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	12.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	483	59
Yohan Flande L 2015 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	.289	3.27	15.1%	8.4%	172	-1.41	3.18	335	59
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	58
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	129	20.2%	14.5%	1.63	5.74
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47