Ken Waldichuk
P
Washington Nationals
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 84 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126135vR 144
ERA5.31
FIP5.59
K%21.5%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%5.9%
ROS IP84
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CU (41%)
CH (1%)
CT (18%)
SL-1.0 (6%)
FB-1.1 (33%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 110 | 453 | 163 | 51 | 13 | 91% | 4.8 | 28.7% | 12.5% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 3.03 | 3.97 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 110 | 453 | 163 | 51 | 13 | 91% | 4.8 | 36.0% | 11.3% | 24.7% | 2.9% | 3.03 | 3.06 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 130 | 543 | 170 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 4.6 | 27.7% | 8.9% | 18.8% | 2.8% | 3.40 | 3.42 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 130 | 543 | 170 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 4.6 | 31.3% | 8.5% | 22.8% | 2.8% | 3.40 | 3.05 | +3.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 35 | 22 | 141 | 639 | 132 | 70 | 24 | 63% | 4.0 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 5.36 | 4.90 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 35 | 22 | 141 | 639 | 132 | 70 | 24 | 63% | 4.0 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 5.36 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 16 | 54 | 264 | 68 | 42 | 13 | 94% | 3.2 | 22.3% | 17.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 8.17 | 5.70 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 16 | 54 | 264 | 68 | 42 | 13 | 94% | 3.2 | 25.8% | 15.9% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 8.17 | 6.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 5 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 0% | 1.9 | — | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | WSH | 80 | 0 | 84 | 357 | 77 | 56 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 15.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 5.31 | 5.59 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | WSH | 80 | 0 | 84 | 355 | 76 | 56 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 15.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 5.31 | 5.59 | -0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 94 | 398 | 85 | 62 | 17 | — | — | 21.3% | 15.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.45 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 94 | 396 | 85 | 62 | 17 | — | — | 21.4% | 15.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.45 | 5.58 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 133 | 563 | 116 | 89 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 15.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.84 | 6.02 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 125 | 529 | 106 | 85 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 16.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.07 | 6.23 | -1.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 117 | 493 | 95 | 81 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.2% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.30 | 6.46 | -1.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 111 | 85 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 15.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.84 | 6.02 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 100 | 81 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 16.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.07 | 6.23 | -1.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 90 | 77 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.2% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.30 | 6.46 | -1.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 187 | 88 | 626 | 2688 | 551 | 384 | 111 | 47% | 3.3 | 20.5% | 14.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.75 | 5.45 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 28 | 200 | 859 | 176 | 123 | 35 | 47% | 3.4 | 20.5% | 14.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.75 | 5.45 | -0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 108 | 87 | 444 | 1940 | 479 | 227 | 69 | 81% | 4.1 | 24.7% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.46 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 39 | 200 | 874 | 216 | 102 | 31 | 81% | 4.1 | 24.7% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ken Waldichuk (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.59 | 21.5% | 15.7% | 3.5% | — | 6.23 | 20.0% | 3.9% | 375 | +0.64 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 69 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 4.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 311 | 69 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.64 | 3.24 | 298 | 67 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 65 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.63 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 484 | 62 |
| Nate Fisher L 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.34 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 4.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 229 | 62 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 61 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 61 |
| Jonathan Bermúdez L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.82 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 469 | 61 |
| Blair Walters L 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.72 | 14.6% | 14.2% | 1.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 262 | 60 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 60 |
| Tommy Vail L 2024 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 59 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .321 | 7.40 | 16.6% | 2.7% | 21 | +2.96 | 4.08 | 165 | 59 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2024 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 59 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.97 | 16.1% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .317 | 4.79 | 12.6% | 7.0% | 82 | -0.18 | 3.79 | 327 | 58 |
| Kyle Hart L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 17.0% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .262 | 4.55 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 172 | +0.04 | 3.64 | 856 | 57 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 57 |
| Michael Roth L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.86 | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 483 | 57 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.55 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .283 | 3.99 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.56 | 3.78 | 311 | 57 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 117 | 20.3% | 16.0% | 1.63 | 5.91 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |