Ken Waldichuk

P Washington Nationals

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MLBOakland Athle…	35	22	141	5.36	4.93	20.7%	11.0%	0.8
2025	27	MIX2 levels	17	16	54	8.17	6.04	25.8%	15.9%	—	K 21.8% · BB 14.9% · FIP 5.78
2026	28	MLBWSH	5	0	9	6.75	8.89	19.5%	14.6%	-0.5
2027PROJ	29	MLBWSH	15	15	91	5.39	5.38	21.7%	14.8%	0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBWSH	17	17	104	5.51	5.59	21.0%	15.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBWSH	14	14	85	5.70	5.82	20.3%	15.5%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control25Command40FB velo48

CompsBrad Mills (age 29) · Marco Tovar (age 28) · Marlon Arias (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.39

FIP5.38

K%21.7%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP91

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	110	453	163	51	13	91%	4.8	28.7%	12.5%	16.1%	3.3%	3.03	4.06	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	110	453	163	51	13	91%	4.8	36.0%	11.3%	24.7%	2.9%	3.03	3.06	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	130	543	170	46	15	100%	4.6	27.7%	8.9%	18.8%	2.9%	3.40	3.51	+3.0
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	130	543	170	46	15	100%	4.6	31.3%	8.5%	22.8%	2.8%	3.40	3.05	+3.8
2023	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	35	22	141	639	132	70	24	63%	4.0	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	4.1%	5.36	5.01	+0.6
2023	25	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	35	22	141	639	132	70	24	63%	4.0	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	3.8%	5.36	4.93	+0.8
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	54	264	68	42	13	94%	3.2	21.8%	14.9%	6.8%	4.8%	8.17	5.78	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	54	264	68	42	13	94%	3.2	21.8%	14.9%	6.8%	4.8%	8.17	5.78	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	54	264	68	42	13	94%	3.2	25.8%	15.9%	9.8%	4.9%	8.17	6.04	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	5	0	9	41	8	6	4	0%	1.9	19.5%	14.6%	4.9%	9.8%	6.75	8.66	-0.4
2026	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	5	0	9	41	8	6	4	0%	1.9	19.5%	14.6%	4.9%	9.8%	6.75	8.66	-0.4
2026	28	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	5	0	9	41	8	6	4	0%	1.9	19.5%	14.6%	4.9%	9.8%	6.75	8.89	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			47	29	185	826	173	86	33	62%	3.9	20.9%	10.4%	10.5%	4.0%	5.35	4.94	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	WSH	15	15	91	384	84	57	13	100%	6.1	21.7%	14.8%	6.9%	3.4%	5.39	5.38	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	110	464	98	70	17	100%	6.1	21.0%	15.1%	5.9%	3.6%	5.51	5.59	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	89	376	76	58	14	100%	5.9	20.3%	15.5%	4.8%	3.8%	5.70	5.82	-0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	104	439	92	66	16	100%	6.1	21.0%	15.1%	5.9%	3.6%	5.51	5.59	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	85	359	73	56	14	100%	6.1	20.3%	15.5%	4.8%	3.8%	5.70	5.82	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	61	374	1624	338	208	62	77%	4.7	20.8%	12.8%	8.0%	3.8%	5.47	5.07	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	32	200	868	181	111	33	77%	4.8	20.8%	12.8%	8.0%	3.8%	5.47	5.07	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		108	87	444	1940	478	220	74	81%	4.1	24.6%	11.4%	13.3%	3.8%	4.58	4.55	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	39	200	874	215	99	33	81%	4.1	24.6%	11.4%	13.3%	3.8%	4.58	4.55	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 51 IPFIP 5.89 → 5.78 (−0.11)K% 25.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.30%	—	×0.860	21.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.60%	—	×0.900	14.94%
HR / BF /BF	5.14%	÷1.183	×1.100	4.78%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 5.89 → 5.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 66 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.52 (+0.42)K% 31.9% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.93%	—	×0.880	28.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.12%	—	×1.050	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.81%	÷1.075	×1.100	2.87%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASomerset Patriots · 29 IPFIP 1.74 → 2.67 (+0.93)K% 41.1% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.07%	—	×0.810	33.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×1.100	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.032	×1.200	2.08%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 1.74 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASomerset Patriots · 79 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.88 (+0.94)K% 31.8% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.76%	—	×0.810	25.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.18%	—	×1.100	12.29%
HR / BF /BF	3.82%	÷1.053	×1.200	4.36%

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 31 IPFIP 0.45 → 1.61 (+1.16)K% 48.7% → 37.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.67%	—	×0.770	37.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.50%	—	×1.150	13.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.45 → 1.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ken Waldichuk (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	21.7%	14.8%	3.4%	—	5.69	20.7%	5.4%	199	+0.31	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	70
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	68
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	68
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	66
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	59
Aríel Miranda L 2018 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP	4.21	17.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	431	59
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	57
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	57
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	57
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	56
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	55
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	54
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	54
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	52
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	51
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	51
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	321	51
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	51
Caleb Smith L 2020 · 6.43 FIP	29	SP-	6.43	25.0%	20.0%	5.3%	.150	5.09	22.1%	10.3%	229	-1.34	3.31	784	50
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	97	21.0%	13.3%	1.45	5.46
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Steve Dunning ('70-'77, -1 WAR*)	3.1	123	20.2%*	11.5%*	1.71*	5.25*
Frank Bertaina ('64-'70, -1 WAR*)	2.1	69	19.0%*	11.8%*	1.24*	5.03*
Paul Abbott ('04)	3.6	80	15.6%	12.3%	1.26	4.92
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14