Doug Nikhazy
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 26
LHP
6'0" / 210 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115125vR 134
ERA5.09
FIP5.09
K%21.1%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%8.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+1.1 (62%)
SI (15%)
CU (3%)
CH (15%)
SL-0.6 (21%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 102 | 453 | 128 | 79 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.8% | 19.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.96 | 4.88 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 102 | 453 | 128 | 79 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 28.3% | 17.4% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 3.96 | 4.06 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 26 | 22 | 102 | 474 | 128 | 73 | 13 | 85% | 3.9 | 21.9% | 16.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.94 | 5.61 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 26 | 22 | 102 | 474 | 128 | 73 | 13 | 85% | 3.9 | 27.0% | 15.4% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.39 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 124 | 489 | 124 | 53 | 12 | 96% | 4.9 | 21.6% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 2.98 | 4.20 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 124 | 489 | 124 | 53 | 12 | 96% | 4.9 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 2.5% | 2.98 | 3.64 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 90 | 410 | 92 | 49 | 15 | 87% | 3.9 | 19.8% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 5.40 | 4.88 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 90 | 410 | 92 | 49 | 15 | 87% | 3.9 | 22.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.40 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 18 | 11 | 53 | 269 | 60 | 41 | 10 | 61% | 3.0 | 19.0% | 16.7% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 9.11 | 6.26 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 36 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 5.09 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 36 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 118 | 543 | 118 | 77 | 19 | — | — | 21.7% | 14.1% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 6.91 | 5.62 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 67 | 282 | 118 | 77 | 19 | — | — | 41.8% | 27.1% | 14.6% | 6.7% | 12.24 | 6.68 | -1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 146 | 614 | 130 | 77 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 5.04 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 146 | 614 | 130 | 76 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 5.07 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 123 | 72 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 5.09 | 5.16 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 131 | 552 | 114 | 69 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 12.5% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 5.21 | 5.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 138 | 583 | 124 | 73 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 138 | 583 | 123 | 72 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 5.06 | 5.10 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 117 | 69 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.12 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 108 | 65 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 12.5% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 5.24 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 103 | 603 | 2555 | 536 | 323 | 86 | 98% | 5.7 | 21.0% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 5.17 | 4.78 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 847 | 178 | 107 | 29 | 98% | 5.7 | 21.0% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 5.17 | 4.78 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 116 | 101 | 471 | 2095 | 441 | 320 | 69 | 87% | 4.1 | 21.0% | 15.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 5.06 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 43 | 200 | 889 | 187 | 136 | 29 | 87% | 4.1 | 21.0% | 15.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Doug Nikhazy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 3.2% | — | 5.09 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 430 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Mike Minor L 2028 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 72 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 69 |
| Caden Grice L 2024 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.28 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 68 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.83 | 13.7% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 273 | 68 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 67 |
| Jojo Ingrassia L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.97 | 26.7% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 112 | 67 |
| Connor Oliver L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 67 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.97 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 245 | 67 |
| Jordan Montgomery L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.48 | 24.5% | 17.4% | 201 | -0.58 | 3.10 | 1,142 | 66 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.13 | 17.0% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 297 | 66 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.52 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 4.63 | 14.5% | 5.5% | 228 | -0.89 | 3.09 | 299 | 65 |
| Matt Portland L 2024 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 143 | 65 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.08 | 19.8% | 13.2% | 1.8% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 328 | 65 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .268 | 5.21 | 12.2% | 0.1% | 54 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 232 | 64 |
| Liam Sullivan L 2024 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 121 | 64 |
| Matt Walker L 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 156 | 64 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.62 | 27.5% | 15.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 239 | 64 |
| Anthony Kay L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.87 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .333 | 4.35 | 24.6% | 10.5% | 69 | -0.52 | 3.57 | 510 | 63 |
| Michael Plassmeyer L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.51 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .319 | 4.85 | 20.7% | 12.5% | 239 | +0.34 | 3.41 | 675 | 63 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 141 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 1.29 | 5.09 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |