Doug Nikhazy — OGILVIE

Doug Nikhazy P Iowa Cubs

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%20.2%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL—45

CMD3540

K†5050

FB+1.1 (62%)

SI (15%)

CU (3%)

CH (15%)

SL-0.6 (21%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	102	453	128	79	9	100%	4.3	21.8%	19.9%	1.9%	2.2%	3.96	4.99	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	102	453	128	79	9	100%	4.3	28.3%	17.4%	10.8%	2.0%	3.96	4.06	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	26	22	102	474	128	73	13	85%	3.9	21.9%	16.9%	4.9%	3.6%	4.94	5.39	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	26	22	102	474	128	73	13	85%	3.9	21.9%	16.9%	4.9%	3.6%	4.94	5.39	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	26	22	102	474	128	73	13	85%	3.9	27.0%	15.4%	11.6%	2.7%	4.94	4.39	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	124	489	124	53	12	96%	4.9	20.8%	10.5%	10.3%	2.7%	2.98	4.16	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	124	489	124	53	12	96%	4.9	20.8%	10.5%	10.3%	2.7%	2.98	4.16	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	124	489	124	53	12	96%	4.9	25.4%	10.8%	14.5%	2.5%	2.98	3.64	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	90	410	92	49	15	87%	3.9	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.9%	5.40	4.93	-0.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	90	410	92	49	15	87%	3.9	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.9%	5.40	4.93	-0.0
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	90	410	92	49	15	87%	3.9	22.4%	12.0%	10.5%	3.7%	5.40	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	1	6	32	6	8	0	33%	2.0	18.8%	25.0%	-6.2%	0.0%	10.50	5.10	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	18	9	49	247	53	39	10	50%	2.7	18.1%	14.0%	4.1%	4.6%	9.43	5.88	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	18	9	49	247	53	39	10	50%	2.7	18.1%	14.0%	4.1%	4.6%	9.43	5.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	CWS	17	9	47	238	52	37	10	53%	2.7	21.8%	15.5%	6.3%	4.2%	9.64	5.53	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	CWS	1	0	2	9	1	2	0	0%	2.0	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	0.0%	4.50	4.98	—
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CWS	1	0	2	9	1	2	0	0%	2.0	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	0.0%	4.50	4.98	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CWS	2	2	13	55	11	7	2	100%	6.5	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	3.3%	5.09	5.09	-0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CWS	2	2	13	55	11	7	2	100%	6.5	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	3.3%	5.12	5.12	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	62	302	64	46	12	—	—	21.2%	15.1%	6.1%	3.9%	8.51	5.71	-0.8
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	15	63	64	46	12	—	—	101.0%	71.8%	29.2%	18.6%	34.96	13.90	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	24	24	146	614	125	71	20	100%	6.1	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	3.3%	5.02	5.04	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	24	24	146	614	125	70	21	100%	6.1	20.4%	11.5%	8.9%	3.4%	5.02	5.06	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	139	587	119	67	21	100%	6.0	20.2%	11.5%	8.7%	3.5%	5.09	5.15	-0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	131	552	110	65	20	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.7%	8.2%	3.7%	5.21	5.31	-0.6
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	23	23	138	583	119	68	20	100%	6.0	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	3.4%	5.05	5.07	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	23	23	138	583	119	67	20	100%	6.0	20.4%	11.5%	8.9%	3.4%	5.05	5.09	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	22	22	132	557	113	64	20	100%	6.0	20.2%	11.5%	8.7%	3.6%	5.12	5.18	-0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	21	21	124	524	104	61	20	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.7%	8.2%	3.8%	5.25	5.35	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	92	552	2336	472	274	81	98%	5.9	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	3.5%	5.17	4.79	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	847	171	99	29	98%	5.9	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	3.5%	5.17	4.79	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		116	99	467	2073	426	298	68	85%	4.0	20.5%	14.4%	6.2%	3.3%	4.76	4.98	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	42	200	888	183	128	29	85%	4.0	20.5%	14.4%	6.2%	3.3%	4.76	4.98	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Doug Nikhazy (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	20.2%	11.9%	3.3%	—	5.08	20.3%	8.8%	430	-0.01	—	—	—
Mike Minor L 2016 · 5.63 FIP	28	SP	5.63	19.2%	11.8%	4.8%	.330	3.76	23.2%	16.4%	443	-1.87	2.43	807	71
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	70
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	69
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	68
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	67
Jaime Arias L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	24	SP	5.99	17.5%	13.9%	4.8%	.333	5.34	14.9%	5.2%	54	-0.65	4.38	243	66
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	66
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	64
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	64
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	64
Anthony Kay L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	26	SP-	4.94	22.9%	11.2%	4.3%	.333	4.25	23.5%	10.5%	69	-0.69	3.50	566	64
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	64
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	63
Michael Plassmeyer L 2023 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP	4.47	20.5%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	4.59	19.5%	13.1%	216	+0.12	3.42	653	62
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	62
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	62
Jordan Montgomery L 2018 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	19.8%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.49	24.5%	17.4%	201	-0.58	3.11	1,180	62
Chris Nunn L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.9%	14.5%	1.8%	.235	3.82	23.6%	12.7%	71	-0.84	3.30	180	62
Shawn Morimando L 2019 · 5.17 FIP	26	SP	5.17	21.0%	10.9%	4.5%	.330	5.47	19.4%	10.8%	100	+0.30	3.98	685	61
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	141	20.2%	11.6%	1.33	5.08
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56