Brandon Williamson

P Cincinnati Reds

Age 29 LHP 6'6" / 210 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	31	31	151	4.95	4.77	19.1%	9.0%	1.1	K 18.5% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.65
2024	26	MIX3 levels	9	8	31	2.05	3.92	22.9%	7.6%	0.5	K 20.3% · BB 8.5% · FIP 5.90
2026	28	MIX3 levels	18	14	69	5.45	5.31	16.1%	13.2%	0.1	K 15.1% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.14
2027PROJ	29	MLBCIN	6	6	34	5.24	5.53	15.8%	12.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBCIN	6	6	35	5.54	5.74	15.0%	13.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBCIN	5	5	30	5.80	5.97	14.3%	13.4%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo27

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Form4.38 ERA (proj 5.24) · K 16.5% (proj 15.8%) · BB 9.7% (proj 12.7%) ▲ last 60d · 25 IP through Oct 27

CompsCarlos Teller (age 29) · Edgar Osuna (age 29) · Jack Snodgrass (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.24

FIP5.53

K%15.8%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%3.0%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p1015.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.369

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	98	409	153	33	11	100%	5.2	29.7%	9.0%	20.7%	3.4%	3.39	3.62	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	98	409	153	33	11	100%	5.2	37.4%	8.1%	29.3%	2.7%	3.39	2.45	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	123	554	123	77	9	100%	4.5	18.6%	15.0%	3.6%	1.7%	4.11	4.36	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	123	554	123	77	9	100%	4.5	22.2%	13.9%	8.3%	1.6%	4.11	3.93	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	151	656	125	59	25	100%	4.9	18.5%	8.7%	9.8%	3.7%	4.95	4.65	+1.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	151	656	125	59	25	100%	4.9	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	3.8%	4.95	4.77	+1.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	8	31	118	27	9	4	89%	3.4	20.3%	8.5%	11.9%	6.3%	2.05	5.90	-0.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	8	31	118	27	9	4	89%	3.4	20.3%	8.5%	11.9%	6.3%	2.05	5.90	-0.2
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	8	31	118	27	9	4	89%	3.4	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	3.4%	2.05	3.92	+0.5
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	14	69	311	50	41	10	78%	3.9	15.1%	12.6%	2.5%	3.1%	5.45	5.14	+0.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	14	69	311	50	41	10	78%	3.9	15.1%	12.6%	2.5%	3.1%	5.45	5.14	+0.2
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	14	69	311	50	41	10	78%	3.9	16.1%	13.2%	2.9%	3.2%	5.45	5.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			39	35	184	781	146	73	31	90%	4.7	18.7%	9.3%	9.3%	4.0%	4.65	4.89	+1.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CIN	6	6	34	144	23	18	5	100%	5.7	15.8%	12.7%	3.0%	3.2%	5.24	5.53	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	6	6	37	155	23	20	5	100%	6.1	15.0%	13.0%	2.0%	3.4%	5.54	5.74	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	CIN	5	5	32	133	19	18	5	100%	6.3	14.3%	13.4%	0.9%	3.7%	5.80	5.97	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	35	148	22	19	5	100%	5.8	15.0%	13.0%	2.0%	3.4%	5.54	5.74	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	30	127	18	17	5	100%	6.0	14.3%	13.4%	0.9%	3.7%	5.80	5.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	46	249	1055	186	109	41	92%	5.0	17.7%	10.3%	7.3%	3.9%	4.91	5.04	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	37	200	848	150	88	33	92%	5.0	17.7%	10.3%	7.3%	3.9%	4.91	5.04	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		104	99	472	2048	417	226	65	95%	4.5	20.3%	11.0%	9.3%	3.2%	4.29	4.51	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	868	177	96	27	95%	4.5	20.3%	11.0%	9.3%	3.2%	4.29	4.51	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 15 IPFIP 4.35 → 4.43 (+0.08)K% 15.5% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.49%	—	×0.860	13.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.08%	—	×0.900	12.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.35 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 13 IPFIP 2.24 → 2.40 (+0.16)K% 22.4% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.45%	—	×0.860	19.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×0.900	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.24 → 2.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 34 IPFIP 5.58 → 5.72 (+0.14)K% 16.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.36%	—	×0.860	14.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×0.900	10.91%
HR / BF /BF	4.24%	÷1.054	×1.100	4.43%

Result: FIP 5.58 → 5.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 67 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.39 (+0.76)K% 24.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.83%	—	×0.810	20.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.42%	—	×1.100	14.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷0.990	×1.200	2.03%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 55 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.34 (+0.16)K% 19.1% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.14%	—	×0.880	16.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.45%	—	×1.050	15.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷1.282	×1.100	1.34%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAArkansas Travelers · 67 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.78 (+1.10)K% 33.0% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.98%	—	×0.810	26.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.07%	—	×1.100	8.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷0.892	×1.200	3.30%

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 31 IPFIP 1.87 → 3.23 (+1.36)K% 47.6% → 36.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.58%	—	×0.770	36.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.06%	—	×1.150	9.27%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.078	×1.250	3.74%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 1.87 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Williamson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	15.8%	12.7%	3.2%	—	5.85	14.7%	1.5%	68	+0.32	—	—	—
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	75
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	73
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	73
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	71
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	71
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	69
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	321	68
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	67
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	66
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	64
Henry Garcia L 2017 · 4.68 FIP	27	SP	4.68	9.2%	10.2%	1.9%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	114	62
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	62
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	61
Mike Belfiore L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	26	SP	4.63	12.0%	9.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.63	135	61
Lenny DiNardo L 2009 · 5.08 FIP	29	SP	5.08	6.8%	12.8%	1.7%	.424	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	257	61
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	60
David Hurlbut L 2018 · 4.84 FIP	28	SP	4.84	13.9%	6.5%	3.8%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	478	60
Eric Surkamp L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	16.4%	9.3%	4.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	233	60
Tommy Shirley L 2016 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	147	59
Kaz Ishii L 2003 · 4.51 FIP	29	SP	4.51	21.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.280	5.18	13.2%	0.9%	263	+0.67	4.51	564	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	57	17.4%	10.8%	1.46	4.96
Mike Willis ('77-'81, 0 WAR*)	1.5	59	18.4%*	9.6%*	1.45*	4.77*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Roansy Contreras ('25)	1.2	82	19.3%	9.8%	1.38	4.77
Chris Brock ('02)	1.7	56	15.3%	9.2%	1.50	4.81
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98