Brandon Williamson
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 28
LHP
6'6" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111121vR 130
ERA4.71
FIP4.91
K%17.1%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%6.0%
ROS IP7
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2292.5
Whiff%
p4224.1%
K%
p1014.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.389
CH+2.4 (24%)
CT+0.8 (27%)
SL+0.5 (10%)
SI (11%)
CU (9%)
FB-6.3 (31%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 98 | 409 | 153 | 33 | 11 | 100% | 5.2 | 29.7% | 9.0% | 20.7% | 3.7% | 3.39 | 3.75 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 98 | 409 | 153 | 33 | 11 | 100% | 5.2 | 37.4% | 8.1% | 29.3% | 2.7% | 3.39 | 2.45 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 123 | 554 | 123 | 77 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 18.6% | 15.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 4.11 | 4.31 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 123 | 554 | 123 | 77 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.2% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 1.6% | 4.11 | 3.93 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 151 | 656 | 125 | 59 | 25 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 151 | 656 | 125 | 59 | 25 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 4.77 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 8 | 31 | 118 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 89% | 3.4 | 20.3% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 6.4% | 2.05 | 5.98 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 8 | 31 | 118 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 89% | 3.4 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 2.05 | 3.92 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 6 | 6 | 28 | 128 | 19 | 20 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.8% | 15.6% | -0.8% | 3.1% | 6.11 | 5.54 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.3 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.91 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.91 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 35 | 159 | 24 | 23 | 5 | — | — | 15.3% | 14.7% | 0.5% | 3.2% | 5.82 | 5.41 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 35 | 149 | 24 | 23 | 5 | — | — | 16.3% | 15.7% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 5.82 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 50 | 212 | 35 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.7% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.29 | 5.43 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 47 | 199 | 32 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.50 | 5.64 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 44 | 185 | 28 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.3% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.72 | 5.87 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 34 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.7% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.29 | 5.43 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 30 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.50 | 5.64 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 27 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.3% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.72 | 5.87 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 57 | 56 | 301 | 1275 | 225 | 134 | 48 | 98% | 5.3 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 5.05 | 5.00 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 848 | 150 | 89 | 32 | 98% | 5.3 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 5.05 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 91 | 431 | 1865 | 389 | 210 | 60 | 99% | 4.7 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.51 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 866 | 181 | 97 | 28 | 99% | 4.7 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Williamson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.01 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 3.4% | — | 5.64 | 16.1% | 4.3% | 141 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 78 |
| Marlon Arias L 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 76 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 74 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 71 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.55 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .283 | 3.99 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.56 | 3.78 | 311 | 70 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.64 | 3.24 | 298 | 69 |
| Orlando Lara L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.00 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.09 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | +0.09 | 3.82 | 426 | 69 |
| Misael Siverio L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.52 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 185 | 69 |
| Darin Gorski L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.39 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 206 | 68 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.97 | 16.1% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .317 | 4.79 | 12.6% | 7.0% | 82 | -0.18 | 3.79 | 327 | 68 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.16 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .367 | 4.34 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | +0.18 | 3.97 | 280 | 67 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 67 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 67 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.47 | 15.4% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .363 | 3.84 | 21.2% | 13.2% | 140 | -0.63 | 3.37 | 440 | 65 |
| Michael Roth L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.86 | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 483 | 65 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.91 | 12.7% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 463 | 64 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.87 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.62 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.25 | 3.76 | 686 | 63 |
| Carlos Hernandez L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.15 | 11.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | .320 | 3.29 | 14.0% | 10.2% | 228 | -1.86 | 2.82 | 331 | 63 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.29 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 116 | 63 |
| Amilcar Gaxiola L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.37 | 11.8% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 321 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 44 | 16.5% | 11.3% | 1.41 | 5.36 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |