Brandon Williamson
P
Cincinnati Reds
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 28
LHP
6'6" / 210 lbs
MLB
ERA4.55
FIP4.65
xFIP6.32
SIERA6.10
K%21.2%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.2%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†4545
FB Velo
p2292.5
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p1013.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.403
CH+2.4 (24%)
CT+0.8 (26%)
SL+0.5 (10%)
SI (11%)
CU (9%)
FB-6.3 (31%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 19 | 19 | 98 | 409 | 153 | 33 | 11 | 29.7% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 3.39 | 3.66 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 27 | 27 | 123 | 554 | 123 | 77 | 9 | 18.6% | 15.0% | 1.8% | 4.11 | 4.39 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 31 | 151 | 656 | 125 | 59 | 25 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 9 | 8 | 31 | 118 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 20.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 2.05 | 5.69 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 14.9% | 13.4% | 4.5% | 5.28 | 6.00 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 89 | 88 | 418 | 1804 | 380 | 199 | 57 | 21.1% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.13 | 4.45 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 863 | 182 | 95 | 27 | 21.1% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.13 | 4.45 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Williamson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 3.3% | — | 5.20 | 17.8% | 7.6% | 28 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.16 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.04 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.12 | 3.29 | 228 | 77 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 76 |
| Roy Merritt L 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 74 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.65 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | .330 | 3.73 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.92 | 2.38 | 807 | 74 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.70 | 14.2% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .286 | 4.02 | 13.0% | 1.5% | 52 | +0.32 | 3.70 | 110 | 73 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.16 | 11.8% | 10.8% | 1.2% | .253 | 2.66 | 19.0% | 16.6% | 57 | -1.50 | 2.22 | 459 | 73 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 118 | 72 |
| Carlos Hernandez L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.52 | 11.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | .320 | 3.31 | 14.0% | 10.2% | 228 | -2.21 | 2.83 | 331 | 72 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2025 · 5.75 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.75 | 12.0% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .343 | 7.90 | 14.7% | 2.5% | 29 | +2.15 | 3.29 | 142 | 71 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.03 | 16.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .317 | 4.78 | 12.6% | 7.0% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.78 | 327 | 71 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 71 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.65 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 133 | 71 |
| Colton Johnson L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.53 | 12.2% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 106 | 70 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 141 | 70 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 70 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2027 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.45 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .356 | 4.80 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.65 | 3.45 | 512 | 70 |
| Marlon Arias L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 70 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.99 | 12.7% | 6.8% | 2.0% | .318 | 5.71 | 10.8% | 2.1% | 77 | +1.72 | 3.90 | 161 | 70 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 69 |
| Michael Heesch L 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.56 | 11.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 109 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.