Brandon Williamson

Brandon Williamson P Cincinnati Reds

Age 28 LHP 6'6" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA4.69

FIP4.88

K%16.9%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.381

CH+2.4 (23%)

CT+0.8 (31%)

SL+0.5 (10%)

SI (8%)

CU (8%)

FB-6.3 (28%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	98	409	153	33	11	100%	5.2	29.7%	9.0%	20.7%	3.4%	3.39	3.62	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	98	409	153	33	11	100%	5.2	37.4%	8.1%	29.3%	2.7%	3.39	2.45	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	123	554	123	77	9	100%	4.5	18.6%	15.0%	3.6%	1.7%	4.11	4.36	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	123	554	123	77	9	100%	4.5	22.2%	13.9%	8.3%	1.6%	4.11	3.93	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	151	656	125	59	25	100%	4.9	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	3.7%	4.95	4.66	+0.4
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	151	656	125	59	25	100%	4.9	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	3.7%	4.95	4.66	+0.4
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	151	656	125	59	25	100%	4.9	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	3.8%	4.95	4.77	+0.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	8	31	118	27	9	4	89%	3.4	20.3%	8.5%	11.9%	6.3%	2.05	5.90	-0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	8	31	118	27	9	4	89%	3.4	20.3%	8.5%	11.9%	6.3%	2.05	5.90	-0.3
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	8	31	118	27	9	4	89%	3.4	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	3.4%	2.05	3.92	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			35	33	169	725	138	70	28	94%	4.8	19.0%	9.7%	9.4%	3.9%	4.74	4.86	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	14	12	54	255	42	38	7	86%	3.9	15.1%	14.2%	0.9%	2.7%	5.96	5.11	-0.1
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	14	12	54	255	42	38	7	86%	3.9	15.1%	14.2%	0.9%	2.7%	5.96	5.11	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	CIN	1	1	2	9	3	2	0	100%	2.0	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	4.50	3.10	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	CIN	5	4	15	71	11	10	1	80%	2.9	15.5%	14.1%	1.4%	1.4%	6.14	4.35	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	CIN	8	7	38	175	28	26	6	88%	4.7	16.0%	14.9%	1.1%	3.4%	5.97	5.51	-0.3
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	CIN	8	7	38	175	28	26	6	88%	4.7	16.0%	14.9%	1.1%	3.4%	5.97	5.51	-0.3
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	5	20	3	2	1	100%	4.8	16.9%	10.9%	6.1%	3.3%	4.69	4.88	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	CIN	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	16.9%	10.9%	6.1%	3.3%	4.69	4.88	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	59	275	45	40	8	—	—	16.5%	14.6%	1.9%	2.8%	5.86	5.09	-0.4
FULL	28	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	42	179	45	40	8	—	—	25.3%	22.4%	2.9%	4.3%	8.16	6.15	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	50	212	36	24	8	100%	6.3	16.9%	11.4%	5.5%	3.6%	5.31	5.45	-0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	47	199	32	23	7	100%	5.9	16.2%	11.7%	4.5%	3.8%	5.52	5.65	-0.4
2029	31	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	44	185	29	22	7	100%	6.3	15.5%	12.0%	3.4%	4.0%	5.74	5.88	-0.5
2027	29	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	48	203	34	23	7	100%	6.0	16.9%	11.4%	5.5%	3.6%	5.31	5.45	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	45	190	31	22	7	100%	5.6	16.2%	11.7%	4.5%	3.8%	5.52	5.65	-0.4
2029	31	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	42	177	27	21	7	100%	6.0	15.5%	12.0%	3.4%	4.0%	5.74	5.88	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	56	308	1311	233	138	50	97%	5.3	17.8%	10.6%	7.2%	3.8%	5.08	5.02	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	37	200	852	151	90	32	97%	5.3	17.8%	10.6%	7.2%	3.8%	5.08	5.02	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		100	97	457	1992	408	223	62	97%	4.6	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.1%	4.31	4.49	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	872	178	98	27	97%	4.6	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.1%	4.31	4.49	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Williamson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	18.4%	9.3%	3.4%	—	5.65	16.2%	4.5%	141	+0.68	—	—	—
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	77
Mike Minor L 2016 · 5.63 FIP	28	SP	5.63	19.2%	11.8%	4.8%	.330	3.76	23.2%	16.4%	443	-1.87	2.43	807	77
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	77
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	73
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	72
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	72
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	71
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	70
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	70
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	70
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	68
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	68
Michael Roth L 2018 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	12.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	483	68
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	321	67
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	67
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	66
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	27	SP	4.56	15.4%	12.3%	2.2%	.363	3.60	21.2%	13.2%	140	-0.96	3.46	440	66
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	66
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	65
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	16.8%	11.1%	1.41	5.31
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50