Hunter Barco — OGILVIE

Hunter Barco P Indianapolis Indians

Age 25 LHP 6'4" / 229 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92100vR 108

ERA3.93

FIP3.93

K%21.8%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p1016.3%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.381

SI (20%)

CH-0.5 (9%)

FB-0.8 (57%)

SL-2.3 (30%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	18	78	28	6	0	89%	2.0	35.9%	7.7%	28.2%	0.0%	3.44	1.04	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	18	78	28	6	0	89%	2.0	35.9%	7.7%	28.2%	0.0%	3.44	1.04	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	8	18	78	28	6	0	89%	2.0	35.9%	7.7%	28.2%	0.0%	3.44	1.03	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	66	266	83	22	5	89%	3.7	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.2%	3.27	3.61	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	66	266	83	22	5	89%	3.7	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.2%	3.27	3.61	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	66	266	83	22	5	89%	3.7	31.2%	8.3%	22.9%	1.9%	3.27	2.57	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	23	102	429	119	49	5	79%	3.5	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	1.4%	2.73	3.34	+1.9
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	23	102	429	119	49	5	79%	3.5	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	1.4%	2.73	3.34	+1.9
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	23	102	429	119	49	5	79%	3.5	27.7%	11.4%	16.3%	1.2%	2.73	2.85	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	21	99	17	13	4	0%	2.3	17.2%	13.1%	4.0%	4.0%	6.53	5.86	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	27	13	88	410	87	52	9	48%	3.2	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	2.4%	5.03	4.38	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	27	13	88	410	87	52	9	48%	3.2	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	2.4%	5.03	4.38	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	PIT	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	100%	1.7	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.57	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	PIT	19	12	68	314	72	38	5	63%	3.6	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	1.6%	4.35	3.57	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	PIT	7	0	18	87	14	13	4	0%	2.5	16.1%	14.9%	1.1%	4.6%	7.64	6.16	-0.3
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	PIT	7	0	18	87	14	13	4	0%	2.5	16.1%	14.9%	1.1%	4.6%	7.64	6.16	-0.3
ROS	25	MLB MLE	PIT	10	0	10	44	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.8%	11.0%	2.4%	3.93	3.93	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	PIT	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.8%	11.0%	2.4%	3.93	3.93	+0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	98	454	96	57	10	—	—	21.3%	12.5%	8.8%	2.2%	4.91	4.33	+0.6
FULL	25	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	28	118	96	57	10	—	—	81.7%	48.0%	33.7%	8.5%	17.21	6.94	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	129	546	120	60	15	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.0%	10.9%	2.7%	4.54	4.52	+0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	131	555	122	60	16	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.53	4.54	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	131	555	121	60	16	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.61	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	126	530	114	58	16	100%	6.0	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	3.1%	4.66	4.73	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	118	498	106	56	16	100%	5.9	21.2%	11.3%	9.9%	3.3%	4.81	4.91	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	123	519	114	57	14	100%	6.2	21.9%	11.0%	10.9%	2.7%	4.54	4.52	+0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	125	528	116	57	15	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.53	4.54	+0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	125	528	115	57	15	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.61	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	119	502	108	55	15	100%	6.0	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	3.1%	4.66	4.73	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	112	473	100	53	15	100%	5.9	21.2%	11.3%	9.9%	3.3%	4.81	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	101	635	2692	580	298	80	85%	5.3	21.5%	11.1%	10.5%	3.0%	4.67	4.32	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	32	200	848	183	94	25	84%	5.3	21.5%	11.1%	10.5%	3.0%	4.67	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		83	60	274	1183	264	128	22	72%	3.3	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	1.9%	3.64	3.61	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	44	200	862	193	93	16	72%	3.3	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	1.9%	3.64	3.61	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Barco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	23.0%	10.6%	2.4%	—	4.56	21.9%	11.0%	392	+0.39	—	—	—
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	73
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	73
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	69
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	66
Brian Fitzpatrick L 2023 · 3.50 FIP	23	SP-	3.50	14.5%	12.8%	0.0%	.312	3.28	21.3%	11.9%	139	-0.22	1.57	161	65
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	64
Ian Seymour L 2023 · 3.15 FIP	24	SP	3.15	21.1%	7.7%	1.6%	.224	3.32	25.7%	19.3%	411	+0.17	2.92	485	64
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	63
Matt Purke L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	12.5%	7.4%	1.5%	.340	3.78	20.6%	7.6%	169	-0.04	3.01	226	63
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	63
Jacques Pucheu L 2022 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP-	3.18	21.4%	8.2%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	134	63
Parker Mushinski L 2021 · 3.50 FIP	25	SW	3.50	24.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.357	4.06	21.3%	11.5%	143	+0.56	3.11	455	62
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	62
Chaz Hebert L 2017 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	15.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	167	62
Justin Steele L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP	4.07	20.0%	12.9%	1.8%	.400	3.71	24.2%	14.1%	203	-0.36	2.74	785	62
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	62
Nick Margevicius L 2021 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	20.0%	11.7%	3.4%	.282	4.85	15.4%	8.8%	118	+0.08	1.74	525	62
Brandon Knarr L 2023 · 5.04 FIP	25	SP-	5.04	24.8%	16.0%	3.7%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	256	62
Edgar Barclay L 2023 · 4.71 FIP	25	SW	4.71	23.8%	12.1%	3.8%	.307	5.59	15.7%	5.5%	157	+0.88	2.06	402	61
Zac Lowther L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	20.9%	10.6%	3.5%	.328	5.67	17.8%	7.2%	44	+1.10	3.09	375	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	125	21.9%	10.9%	1.11	4.55
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67