Hunter Barco

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 229 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	18	16	66	3.27	2.57	31.2%	8.3%	—	K 23.4% · BB 10.0% · FIP 3.61
2025	24	MIX3 levels	29	23	102	2.73	2.85	27.7%	11.4%	3.2	K 23.5% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.29
2026	25	MIX3 levels	29	15	98	4.52	4.04	21.1%	12.2%	1.6	K 18.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.17
2027PROJ	26	MLBPIT	14	14	86	4.50	4.56	20.5%	11.2%	0.8
2028PROJ80% MLB	27	MLBPIT	13	13	78	4.52	4.56	20.6%	10.9%	0.8
2029PROJ86% MLB	28	MLBPIT	12	12	75	4.57	4.62	20.6%	10.8%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo44

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsBrad Mills (age 26) · Dan Meyer (age 26) · Hung-Chih Kuo (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.50

FIP4.56

K%20.5%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p1016.3%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.381

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	18	78	28	6	0	89%	2.0	35.9%	7.7%	28.2%	0.0%	3.44	1.04	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	8	18	78	28	6	0	89%	2.0	35.9%	7.7%	28.2%	0.0%	3.44	1.03	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	66	266	83	22	5	89%	3.7	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.2%	3.27	3.61	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	66	266	83	22	5	89%	3.7	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.2%	3.27	3.61	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	66	266	83	22	5	89%	3.7	31.2%	8.3%	22.9%	1.9%	3.27	2.57	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	23	102	429	119	49	5	79%	3.5	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	1.4%	2.73	3.29	+2.6
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	23	102	429	119	49	5	79%	3.5	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	1.4%	2.73	3.29	+2.6
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	23	102	429	119	49	5	79%	3.5	27.7%	11.4%	16.3%	1.2%	2.73	2.85	+3.2
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	15	98	451	95	55	9	52%	3.4	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	2.2%	4.52	4.17	+1.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	15	98	451	95	55	9	52%	3.4	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	2.2%	4.52	4.17	+1.4
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	15	98	451	95	55	9	52%	3.4	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	2.0%	4.52	4.04	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	21	99	17	13	4	0%	2.3	17.2%	13.1%	4.0%	4.0%	6.53	5.86	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PIT	14	14	86	363	74	41	9	100%	6.1	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	2.5%	4.50	4.56	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	98	413	85	45	11	100%	6.1	20.6%	10.9%	9.7%	2.6%	4.52	4.56	+1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	87	369	76	40	10	100%	5.8	20.6%	10.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.57	4.62	+0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	78	329	66	36	10	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.77	+0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	69	293	57	33	9	100%	5.8	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	3.1%	4.84	4.96	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	78	329	68	36	9	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.9%	9.7%	2.6%	4.52	4.56	+0.8
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	75	317	65	34	9	100%	6.2	20.6%	10.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.57	4.62	+0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	69	291	58	32	8	100%	5.8	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.77	+0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	63	266	52	30	8	100%	6.3	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	3.1%	4.84	4.96	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	48	306	1303	260	145	38	84%	5.4	20.0%	11.1%	8.9%	2.9%	4.77	4.43	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	31	200	852	170	95	25	84%	5.4	20.0%	11.1%	8.9%	2.9%	4.77	4.43	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		85	62	284	1224	276	130	22	73%	3.3	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.51	3.54	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	44	200	861	194	92	16	73%	3.3	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.51	3.54	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 78 IPFIP 3.43 → 3.63 (+0.20)K% 22.5% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.54%	—	×0.860	19.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.55%	—	×0.900	10.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.43 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 74 IPFIP 3.45 → 3.76 (+0.31)K% 25.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.39%	—	×0.860	21.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.00%	—	×0.900	11.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷0.915	×1.100	1.86%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 26 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.66 (+0.67)K% 36.2% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.17%	—	×0.810	29.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.45%	—	×1.100	8.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.891	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 62 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.61 (+0.90)K% 30.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.770	23.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.150	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.106	×1.250	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 11 IPFIP 0.86 → 1.90 (+1.04)K% 38.8% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.78%	—	×0.740	28.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×1.180	9.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.971	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 0.86 → 1.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Pirates · 8 IPFIP 1.35 → 2.41 (+1.06)K% 31.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.680	21.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.250	8.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 1.35 → 2.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Barco (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.64	20.5%	9.5%	263	+0.08	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	75
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	71
Hung-Chih Kuo L 2007 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	19.3%	10.0%	2.1%	.333	2.04	29.8%	22.7%	170	-1.87	1.63	287	71
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	70
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	69
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	68
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	68
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	67
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	67
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	67
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	66
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	65
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	65
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	65
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	64
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	64
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	64
Josh Outman L 2011 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	13.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.302	3.80	21.8%	11.8%	123	-0.23	2.95	380	64
Rodney Boone L 2024 · 4.56 FIP	24	SP-	4.56	18.1%	9.8%	3.2%	.221	3.64	18.5%	10.8%	78	-0.92	3.64	311	63
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	95	20.2%	11.1%	1.09	4.68
Frank Reberger ('68-'72, -1 WAR*)	1.9	97	19.1%*	10.9%*	1.08*	5.19*
Dick Kelley ('64-'71, 3 WAR*)	2.6	87	21.4%*	10.6%*	1.04*	4.26*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Manny Parra ('15)	3.1	78	20.8%	10.6%	1.00	4.90
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*