Hunter Barco
P
Pittsburgh Pirates
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
LHP
6'4" / 229 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
xFIP6.72
SIERA6.19
K%23.4%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%12.0%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5555
SI (26%)
CH-0.5 (6%)
FB-0.8 (61%)
SL-2.3 (27%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 9 | 8 | 18 | 78 | 28 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.44 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 18 | 16 | 66 | 266 | 83 | 22 | 5 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 3.27 | 3.59 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 29 | 23 | 102 | 429 | 119 | 49 | 5 | 23.9% | 12.4% | 1.4% | 2.73 | 3.43 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5 | 0 | 9 | 49 | 7 | 7 | 3 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PIT | 28 | — | 28 | 117 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 37 | 166 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 3.17 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 88 | 46 | 11 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.62 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 91 | 47 | 12 | 22.1% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 91 | 46 | 12 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.61 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 96 | 403 | 88 | 45 | 12 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.64 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 85 | 44 | 12 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.71 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 81 | 43 | 11 | 21.5% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.78 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 77 | 42 | 11 | 21.2% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.87 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 82 | 346 | 72 | 41 | 11 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.97 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 74 | 37 | 11 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.81 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 69 | 35 | 11 | 22.1% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 63 | 34 | 10 | 21.7% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 5.00 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 47 | 196 | 822 | 200 | 93 | 15 | 24.3% | 11.3% | 1.8% | 3.17 | 3.47 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 48 | 200 | 839 | 204 | 95 | 15 | 24.3% | 11.3% | 1.8% | 3.17 | 3.47 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Barco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 2.4% | — | 4.61 | 22.1% | 10.6% | 289 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Aguilar L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.40 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 1.3% | .273 | 3.59 | 22.5% | 14.4% | 87 | +0.19 | 2.19 | 261 | 81 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 79 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2028 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 79 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .338 | 3.49 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.22 | 1.78 | 560 | 79 |
| Sam Freeman L 2029 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.56 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.67 | 3.06 | 299 | 77 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 77 |
| Brian Moran L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 76 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.3% | .382 | 3.83 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.22 | 2.44 | 171 | 76 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.39 | 17.4% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .308 | 5.57 | 13.9% | 1.8% | 49 | +1.18 | 4.08 | 212 | 76 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 75 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.16 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 25 | +0.17 | 3.29 | 128 | 75 |
| Brennan Bernardino L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.41 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .325 | 3.32 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 54 | -1.09 | 2.52 | 406 | 75 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 75 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 75 |
| John Beller L 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 170 | 74 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.15 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.36 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 216 | +0.21 | 3.48 | 311 | 74 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.89 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 146 | 74 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 74 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.91 | 15.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .236 | 4.42 | 17.1% | 5.3% | 92 | -0.49 | 4.19 | 133 | 74 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .341 | 8.17 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.12 | 3.97 | 158 | 73 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2026
Service 0.035 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.7M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $11M | $16M | +$6M | ||