Matt Krook

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 32 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	42	0	45	4.23	4.20	29.2%	16.7%	0.2	K 25.0% · BB 15.0% · FIP 4.19
2025	30	MIX2 levels	45	0	51	3.33	3.29	29.1%	15.0%	0.8	K 25.6% · BB 14.0% · FIP 3.53
2026	31	MIX2 levels	51	4	56	5.01	3.15	27.7%	13.8%	0.9	K 25.3% · BB 10.9% · FIP 2.63
2027PROJ	32	MLBWSH	106	0	111	4.05	4.05	27.1%	13.1%	0.7
2028PROJ75% MLB	33	MLBWSH	88	0	92	4.22	4.32	26.1%	13.0%	0.2
2029PROJ71% MLB	34	MLBWSH	67	0	70	4.43	4.58	25.2%	13.1%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJuan Pablo Perez (age 34) · Raul Valdes (age 32) · Ryan O'Rourke (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94102vR 110

ERA4.05

FIP4.05

K%27.1%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP159

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 159 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	2	1	6	27	2	2	0	50%	2.8	7.4%	7.4%	0.0%	0.0%	1.59	3.41	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	AZL Giants	2	1	6	27	2	2	0	50%	2.8	7.4%	7.4%	0.0%	0.0%	1.59	3.45	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	25	17	91	418	105	66	4	68%	3.7	19.3%	18.2%	1.2%	1.2%	5.12	4.42	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	San Jose Giants	25	17	91	418	105	66	4	68%	3.7	25.1%	15.8%	9.3%	1.0%	5.12	3.54	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	37	6	74	326	95	50	3	16%	2.0	23.6%	16.9%	6.7%	1.1%	4.26	3.86	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	37	6	74	326	95	50	3	16%	2.0	29.1%	15.3%	13.8%	0.9%	4.26	3.09	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	32	18	50	225	52	32	3	56%	1.6	18.7%	15.6%	3.1%	1.7%	4.50	4.46	—
2019	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	32	18	50	225	52	32	3	56%	1.6	23.1%	14.2%	8.9%	1.3%	4.50	3.72	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	106	445	132	60	5	88%	4.4	25.4%	14.3%	11.1%	1.1%	2.89	3.38	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	106	445	132	60	5	88%	4.4	29.7%	13.5%	16.2%	1.1%	2.89	2.92	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	29	22	139	603	155	73	19	76%	4.8	22.6%	12.7%	9.9%	3.4%	4.09	4.69	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	29	22	139	603	155	73	19	76%	4.8	25.7%	12.1%	13.6%	3.2%	4.09	4.22	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	38	168	58	32	1	0%	1.2	33.5%	16.6%	17.0%	0.0%	3.79	2.37	+1.0
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	38	168	58	32	1	0%	1.2	34.5%	19.0%	15.5%	0.6%	3.79	2.92	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	45	192	56	32	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	15.0%	10.0%	2.4%	4.23	4.19	+0.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	45	192	56	32	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	15.0%	10.0%	2.4%	4.23	4.19	+0.2
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	45	192	56	32	5	0%	1.1	29.2%	16.7%	12.5%	2.6%	4.23	4.20	+0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	51	220	64	33	3	0%	1.1	25.6%	14.0%	11.5%	1.5%	3.33	3.53	+0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	51	220	64	33	3	0%	1.1	25.6%	14.0%	11.5%	1.5%	3.33	3.53	+0.6
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	51	220	64	33	3	0%	1.1	29.1%	15.0%	14.1%	1.4%	3.33	3.29	+0.8
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	4	56	260	72	36	3	8%	1.1	25.3%	10.9%	14.4%	0.5%	5.01	2.63	+1.3
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	4	56	260	72	36	3	8%	1.1	25.3%	10.9%	14.4%	0.5%	5.01	2.63	+1.3
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	4	56	260	72	36	3	8%	1.1	27.7%	13.8%	13.8%	1.2%	5.01	3.15	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	0	17	94	17	18	4	0%	0.9	18.1%	19.1%	-1.1%	4.3%	13.50	7.42	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	WSH	106	0	111	469	127	61	10	0%	1.0	27.1%	13.1%	13.9%	2.2%	4.05	4.05	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	WSH	116	0	122	513	134	67	13	0%	1.0	26.1%	13.0%	13.0%	2.5%	4.22	4.32	+0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	WSH	93	0	98	414	104	54	12	0%	1.1	25.2%	13.1%	12.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.58	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	WSH	88	0	92	388	101	51	10	0%	1.0	26.1%	13.0%	13.0%	2.5%	4.22	4.32	+0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	WSH	67	0	70	296	74	39	8	0%	1.0	25.2%	13.1%	12.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	178	774	192	107	22	0%	1.0	24.8%	13.8%	11.0%	2.9%	5.17	4.33	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	871	216	120	25	0%	1.0	24.8%	13.8%	11.0%	2.9%	5.17	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		318	89	655	2884	678	424	47	28%	2.1	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	1.6%	4.08	3.88	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	27	200	880	207	129	14	28%	2.1	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	1.6%	4.08	3.88	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 47 IPFIP 2.41 → 2.63 (+0.22)K% 29.4% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.44%	—	×0.860	25.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.15%	—	×0.900	10.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.47%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.51%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.41 → 2.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 48 IPFIP 3.37 → 3.53 (+0.16)K% 29.8% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.76%	—	×0.860	25.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.61%	—	×0.900	14.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.46%	÷1.093	×1.100	1.47%

Result: FIP 3.37 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 44 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.19 (+0.26)K% 29.0% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.03%	—	×0.860	24.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×0.900	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.37%

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 34 IPFIP 2.14 → 2.37 (+0.23)K% 39.0% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.01%	—	×0.860	33.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.44%	—	×0.900	16.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.017	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.14 → 2.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 139 IPFIP 4.19 → 4.69 (+0.50)K% 25.7% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.70%	—	×0.880	22.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.11%	—	×1.050	12.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.15%	÷1.006	×1.100	3.45%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 4.19 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 77 IPFIP 3.39 → 3.73 (+0.33)K% 26.6% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.59%	—	×0.880	23.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.80%	—	×1.050	15.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.21%	÷1.149	×1.100	1.16%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASomerset Patriots · 29 IPFIP 1.54 → 2.35 (+0.81)K% 38.6% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.60%	—	×0.810	31.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.65%	—	×1.100	10.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.053	×1.200	1.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 1.54 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 50 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.46 (+0.77)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.11%	—	×0.810	18.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.22%	—	×1.100	15.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷0.920	×1.200	1.74%

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Krook (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.2%	—	4.44	25.7%	12.6%	220	+0.39	—	—	—
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	67
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	65
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	62
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	60
Zac Rosscup L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	31	SU	4.42	26.4%	20.5%	1.7%	.386	2.69	26.6%	13.7%	58	-1.73	2.56	173	60
Hideki Okajima L 2008 · 3.49 FIP	32	SU	3.49	23.3%	8.5%	2.3%	.253	4.09	18.4%	11.4%	107	+0.60	3.05	238	60
Doug Creek L 2001 · 4.48 FIP	32	SU	4.48	23.7%	15.8%	2.5%	.272	4.99	20.3%	7.6%	69	+0.51	4.48	277	60
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	60
Clay Rapada L 2012 · 3.00 FIP	31	SU	3.00	24.5%	10.3%	1.2%	.273	3.84	14.3%	6.3%	44	+0.84	3.00	120	59
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	59
Tim Byrdak L 2005 · 3.45 FIP	31	SU	3.45	23.7%	15.3%	0.8%	.329	4.31	22.0%	10.7%	100	+0.86	2.85	320	58
Anthony Gose L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	31	SU	4.71	30.4%	14.1%	4.4%	.234	4.63	23.9%	12.2%	82	-0.08	3.78	233	58
Mike Myers L 2001 · 3.22 FIP	32	SU	3.22	21.3%	10.1%	1.2%	.263	4.20	15.7%	5.5%	116	+0.98	3.22	533	57
Kelly Wunsch L 2003 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	20.6%	13.1%	0.6%	.152	3.82	21.0%	9.6%	24	+0.46	3.36	175	57
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	56
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	56
Jack Taschner L 2010 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	18.1%	11.7%	3.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	189	56
Heriberto Ruelas L 2015 · 2.95 FIP	33	SU	2.95	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.62	2.95	117	55
Yorkis Perez L 2000 · 4.85 FIP	32	SU	4.85	18.9%	10.8%	3.6%	.284	4.54	20.8%	10.0%	27	-0.31	3.18	269	55
Cam Booser L 2024 · 3.11 FIP	32	SU	3.11	26.2%	8.0%	2.2%	.338	3.94	27.0%	19.2%	107	+0.83	2.76	314	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	132	25.8%	13.4%	0.99	4.60
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90
Dave Morehead ('63-'70, 4 WAR*)	4.1	102	21.9%*	12.6%*	1.04*	4.75*
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Bo Belinsky ('62-'70, -0 WAR*)	3.3	133	21.2%*	11.6%*	1.01*	4.96*
Ian Anderson ('25)	1.4	94	22.2%	10.5%	0.99	4.22