Matt Krook — OGILVIE

Matt Krook P Rochester Red Wings

Age 31 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.08

FIP4.08

K%26.0%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3030

CMD5050

K†6060

CT+0.5 (24%)

SL (27%)

SI (34%)

FB (34%)

CH-1.2 (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	2	1	6	27	2	2	0	50%	2.8	7.4%	7.4%	0.0%	0.0%	1.59	3.41	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	AZL Giants	2	1	6	27	2	2	0	50%	2.8	7.4%	7.4%	0.0%	0.0%	1.59	3.45	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	25	17	91	418	105	66	4	68%	3.7	19.3%	18.2%	1.2%	1.2%	5.12	4.42	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	San Jose Giants	25	17	91	418	105	66	4	68%	3.7	25.1%	15.8%	9.3%	1.0%	5.12	3.54	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	37	6	74	326	95	50	3	16%	2.0	23.6%	16.9%	6.7%	1.1%	4.26	3.86	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	37	6	74	326	95	50	3	16%	2.0	29.1%	15.3%	13.8%	0.9%	4.26	3.09	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	32	18	50	225	52	32	3	56%	1.6	18.7%	15.6%	3.1%	1.7%	4.50	4.46	—
2019	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	32	18	50	225	52	32	3	56%	1.6	23.1%	14.2%	8.9%	1.3%	4.50	3.72	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	106	445	132	60	5	88%	4.4	25.4%	14.3%	11.1%	1.1%	2.89	3.38	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	106	445	132	60	5	88%	4.4	29.7%	13.5%	16.2%	1.1%	2.89	2.92	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	29	22	139	603	155	73	19	76%	4.8	22.6%	12.7%	9.9%	3.4%	4.09	4.69	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	29	22	139	603	155	73	19	76%	4.8	25.7%	12.1%	13.6%	3.2%	4.09	4.22	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	38	168	58	32	1	0%	1.2	32.4%	16.6%	15.8%	0.0%	3.79	2.47	+1.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	38	168	58	32	1	0%	1.2	32.4%	16.6%	15.8%	0.0%	3.79	2.47	+1.0
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	38	168	58	32	1	0%	1.2	34.5%	19.0%	15.5%	0.6%	3.79	2.92	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	45	192	56	32	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	15.0%	9.1%	2.4%	4.23	4.27	+0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	45	192	56	32	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	15.0%	9.1%	2.4%	4.23	4.27	+0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	45	192	56	32	5	0%	1.1	29.2%	16.7%	12.5%	2.6%	4.23	4.20	+0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	51	220	64	33	3	0%	1.1	24.7%	14.0%	10.6%	1.5%	3.33	3.60	+0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	51	220	64	33	3	0%	1.1	24.7%	14.0%	10.6%	1.5%	3.33	3.60	+0.6
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	51	220	64	33	3	0%	1.1	29.1%	15.0%	14.1%	1.4%	3.33	3.29	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	0	17	94	17	18	4	0%	0.9	18.1%	19.1%	-1.1%	4.3%	13.50	7.42	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	50	3	54	251	70	36	3	6%	1.1	24.7%	11.4%	13.3%	0.5%	5.17	2.75	—
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	50	3	54	251	70	36	3	6%	1.1	24.7%	11.4%	13.3%	0.5%	5.17	2.75	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	WSH	39	3	46	205	61	26	1	8%	1.2	29.8%	12.7%	17.1%	0.5%	4.14	2.46	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	WSH	11	0	8	46	9	10	2	0%	0.8	19.6%	21.7%	-2.2%	4.3%	10.80	6.59	—
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	WSH	11	0	8	46	9	10	2	0%	0.8	19.6%	21.7%	-2.2%	4.3%	10.80	6.59	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	6	3	1	0%	1.1	26.0%	14.6%	11.4%	2.4%	4.08	4.08	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	26.0%	14.6%	11.4%	2.4%	4.08	4.08	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	59	274	76	39	4	—	—	27.7%	14.4%	13.4%	1.3%	5.07	2.88	+1.3
FULL	31	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	14	58	76	39	4	—	—	130.9%	67.8%	63.1%	6.1%	21.92	4.00	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	WSH	140	0	147	620	152	95	18	0%	1.0	24.5%	15.3%	9.3%	2.9%	4.85	4.94	-0.6
2028	33	MLB MLE	WSH	128	0	135	569	136	86	18	0%	1.1	23.8%	15.2%	8.7%	3.2%	5.00	5.14	-0.9
2027	32	MLB CTX	WSH	132	0	139	587	144	90	17	0%	1.1	24.5%	15.3%	9.3%	2.9%	4.85	4.94	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	WSH	122	0	128	540	129	82	17	0%	1.0	23.8%	15.2%	8.7%	3.2%	5.00	5.14	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		279	0	289	1246	296	193	39	0%	1.0	23.8%	15.5%	8.3%	3.1%	5.40	4.77	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	0	200	861	204	133	27	0%	1.0	23.8%	15.5%	8.3%	3.1%	5.40	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		317	88	654	2875	668	425	47	28%	2.1	23.2%	14.8%	8.5%	1.6%	4.09	3.91	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	27	200	880	205	130	15	28%	2.1	23.2%	14.8%	8.5%	1.6%	4.09	3.91	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Krook (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	26.2%	14.9%	2.5%	—	5.04	24.2%	9.0%	282	+0.54	—	—	—
Zac Rosscup L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	31	SU	4.42	26.4%	20.5%	1.7%	.386	2.69	26.6%	13.7%	58	-1.73	2.56	160	68
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	67
Sam Freeman L 2018 · 3.35 FIP	31	SU	3.35	26.9%	13.9%	1.4%	.304	5.60	16.8%	5.5%	59	+2.25	3.03	299	67
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	65
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	63
Adam Conley L 2021 · 4.42 FIP	31	SU	4.42	22.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.210	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	674	61
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	61
Kevin Chapman L 2018 · 5.66 FIP	30	SU	5.66	17.1%	15.7%	3.7%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	153	61
Jeff Beliveau L 2018 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	23.3%	14.4%	1.7%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	137	60
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	60
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	60
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	60
Fabian Williamson L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SU	4.78	20.5%	21.1%	1.3%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	154	59
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	58
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.59	21.7%	7.5%	95	-0.11	2.97	294	58
Marc Rzepczynski L 2017 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	18.2%	10.9%	1.5%	.284	5.47	15.5%	1.4%	67	+1.70	2.73	181	58
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	57
Anthony Gose L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	31	SU	4.71	30.4%	14.1%	4.4%	.234	4.70	23.1%	11.3%	82	-0.01	3.85	219	57
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	57
Tommy Layne L 2016 · 3.43 FIP	31	SU	3.43	20.3%	9.6%	1.5%	.266	4.25	19.4%	10.0%	90	+0.82	1.32	182	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	147	24.9%	15.1%	1.10	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94