Will Dion
P
Columbus Clippers
+0.9
WAR
Age 26
LHP
5'10" / 180 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.5%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%11.0%
IP106
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 5 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 21 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 25 | 25 | 128 | 507 | 157 | 34 | 9 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 2.2% | 2.11 | 3.40 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 26 | 19 | 117 | 462 | 129 | 35 | 7 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 2.39 | 3.39 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 29 | 27 | 117 | 518 | 116 | 54 | 21 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.3% | 5.48 | 5.16 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 31 | 13 | 99 | 434 | 96 | 37 | 9 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 4.09 | 3.76 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 6 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 92 | 43 | 13 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 116 | 487 | 104 | 47 | 13 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.17 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 96 | 43 | 14 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 110 | 463 | 96 | 43 | 14 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 107 | 453 | 94 | 42 | 14 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.57 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 104 | 439 | 90 | 41 | 14 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 86 | 40 | 13 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.70 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 81 | 39 | 13 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 77 | 38 | 13 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 88 | 369 | 71 | 37 | 13 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.00 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 15 | 82 | 348 | 66 | 36 | 12 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 5.04 | 5.12 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 67 | 32 | 12 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 4.98 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 122 | 87 | 482 | 2001 | 438 | 184 | 52 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.36 | 3.84 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 36 | 200 | 830 | 182 | 76 | 22 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.36 | 3.84 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Dion (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.55 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 326 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Pena L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 89 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 87 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 87 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2024 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 86 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 86 |
| Felix Doubront L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 85 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .310 | 3.54 | 23.9% | 16.0% | 205 | -0.55 | 3.17 | 372 | 85 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.41 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .334 | 3.88 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 209 | +0.47 | 3.41 | 440 | 84 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 83 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 83 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 83 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.53 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.39 | 2.83 | 845 | 83 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2023 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 83 |
| Eric Wooten L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 82 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .338 | 3.68 | 24.4% | 21.0% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.29 | 412 | 82 |
| Misael Siverio L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 82 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 82 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2023 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 80 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.44 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | .289 | 5.28 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | -0.16 | 5.28 | 128 | 80 |
| John Gast L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $7M | $19M | +$12M | ||