Will Dion

P Washington Nationals

Age 27 LHP 5'10" / 180 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AAACLE	29	27	117	5.48	4.84	22.4%	10.4%	—	K 19.3% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.97
2025	25	AAACLE	31	13	99	4.09	3.46	22.1%	8.5%	—	K 19.0% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.61
2026	26	MIX2 levels	48	1	87	3.62	2.96	30.7%	6.9%	1.7	K 28.6% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.14
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	41	0	43	3.97	4.20	22.0%	7.4%	0.2
2028PROJ84% MLB	28	MLBWSH	56	0	59	4.17	4.29	21.8%	7.5%	0.2
2029PROJ87% MLB	29	MLBWSH	53	0	56	4.34	4.45	21.3%	7.8%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs80

K%78

FB Velo10

Form3.52 ERA (proj 3.97) · K 22.6% (proj 22.0%) · BB 12.9% (proj 7.4%) ▼ last 60d · 15 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 2.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsChris Narveson (age 27) · Hector Hernandez (age 28) · Chris O'Grady (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8795vR 103

ERA3.97

FIP4.20

K%22.0%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%14.6%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p7827.4%

xwOBA vs

p800.283

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	3	12	41	21	5	0	60%	2.4	51.2%	12.2%	39.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.32	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	3	12	41	21	5	0	60%	2.4	51.2%	12.2%	39.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.85	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	128	507	157	34	9	100%	5.1	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	2.2%	2.11	3.40	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	128	507	157	34	9	100%	5.1	31.0%	6.7%	24.3%	1.8%	2.11	2.36	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	117	462	129	35	7	73%	4.5	22.3%	8.4%	13.8%	2.0%	2.39	3.37	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	117	462	129	35	7	73%	4.5	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.5%	2.39	2.57	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	29	27	117	518	116	54	21	93%	4.0	19.3%	9.4%	9.9%	4.2%	5.48	4.97	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	29	27	117	518	116	54	21	93%	4.0	19.3%	9.4%	9.9%	4.2%	5.48	4.97	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	29	27	117	518	116	54	21	93%	4.0	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	4.1%	5.48	4.84	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	31	13	99	434	96	37	9	42%	3.2	19.0%	7.7%	11.4%	2.1%	4.09	3.61	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	31	13	99	434	96	37	9	42%	3.2	19.0%	7.7%	11.4%	2.1%	4.09	3.61	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	31	13	99	434	96	37	9	42%	3.2	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	2.1%	4.09	3.46	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	87	349	107	24	10	2%	1.8	28.6%	6.7%	21.9%	2.9%	3.62	3.14	+1.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	87	349	107	24	10	2%	1.8	28.6%	6.7%	21.9%	2.9%	3.62	3.14	+1.5
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	1	87	349	107	24	10	2%	1.8	30.7%	6.9%	23.8%	2.9%	3.62	2.96	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			27	1	50	201	55	17	8	4%	1.8	27.4%	8.5%	18.9%	4.0%	3.62	4.01	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	41	0	43	182	40	13	5	0%	1.0	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	3.0%	3.97	4.20	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	67	0	70	296	65	22	9	0%	1.0	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	3.1%	4.17	4.29	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	271	58	21	9	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.8%	13.5%	3.2%	4.34	4.45	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	51	0	54	226	47	18	8	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	3.4%	4.52	4.65	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	56	0	59	249	54	19	8	0%	1.1	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	3.1%	4.17	4.29	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53	0	56	236	50	18	8	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.8%	13.5%	3.2%	4.34	4.45	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	46	0	48	203	42	16	7	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	3.4%	4.52	4.65	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		182	1	213	890	202	71	30	1%	1.2	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	3.4%	4.17	4.07	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	1	200	836	190	67	28	1%	1.2	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	3.4%	4.17	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		164	88	559	2311	521	189	61	54%	3.4	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	2.7%	3.41	3.69	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	31	200	826	186	68	22	54%	3.4	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	2.7%	3.41	3.69	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 37 IPFIP 1.47 → 1.90 (+0.43)K% 35.1% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.14%	—	×0.860	30.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.73%	—	×0.900	4.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.47 → 1.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 99 IPFIP 3.45 → 3.61 (+0.16)K% 22.1% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.12%	—	×0.860	19.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.53%	—	×0.900	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.093	×1.100	2.09%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAColumbus Clippers · 117 IPFIP 4.75 → 4.97 (+0.22)K% 22.4% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.39%	—	×0.860	19.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×0.900	9.38%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷1.060	×1.100	4.21%

Result: FIP 4.75 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAkron RubberDucks · 83 IPFIP 2.80 → 3.65 (+0.85)K% 26.7% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.75%	—	×0.810	21.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.60%	—	×1.100	8.36%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.909	×1.200	2.41%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.80 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lake County Captains · 34 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.68 (+0.82)K% 30.8% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.83%	—	×0.770	23.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.52%	—	×1.150	8.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷1.060	×1.250	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALynchburg Hillcats · 115 IPFIP 2.30 → 3.40 (+1.09)K% 30.7% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.74%	—	×0.740	22.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.71%	—	×1.180	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷1.015	×1.300	2.22%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lake County Captains · 13 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.25 (+0.90)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.150	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.134	×1.250	2.45%

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Indians · 9 IPFIP -0.58 → 1.30 (+1.88)K% 58.1% → 39.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	58.06%	—	×0.680	39.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.250	12.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.488	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 198).

Result: FIP -0.58 → 1.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Dion (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	22.0%	7.4%	3.0%	—	4.45	21.3%	13.5%	188	+0.25	—	—	—
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	77
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	74
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	73
Eric Stults L 2007 · 4.28 FIP	27	SW	4.28	16.8%	8.4%	2.8%	.349	4.14	16.2%	7.2%	89	-0.14	3.50	773	73
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	72
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	72
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	70
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	70
Brian Johnson L 2018 · 4.59 FIP	27	SW	4.59	20.0%	8.8%	3.8%	.300	4.73	17.1%	7.0%	116	+0.14	3.39	506	70
Andrew Barbosa L 2015 · 3.14 FIP	27	SW	3.14	22.8%	12.2%	0.8%	.292	3.73	20.2%	11.3%	127	+0.59	2.70	175	69
Manny Banuelos L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	27	SP-	3.48	23.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.338	5.89	18.7%	5.9%	51	+2.41	2.95	486	68
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	67
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	66
Matt Tomshaw L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	27	SP-	3.04	22.7%	5.4%	2.1%	.301	3.56	16.1%	11.0%	423	+0.52	3.04	681	66
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	65
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	65
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	65
Kent Emanuel L 2019 · 3.77 FIP	27	SW	3.77	17.3%	5.8%	2.5%	.297	3.69	19.5%	15.6%	67	-0.08	3.03	650	65
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	64
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	22.4%	7.8%	1.28	4.14
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*