Will Dion — OGILVIE

Will Dion P Washington Nationals

Age 26 LHP 5'10" / 180 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8189vR 97

ERA3.73

FIP3.73

K%22.7%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%15.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p8128.0%

xwOBA vs

p810.282

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	3	12	41	21	5	0	60%	2.4	51.2%	12.2%	39.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.32	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	3	12	41	21	5	0	60%	2.4	51.2%	12.2%	39.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.85	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	128	507	157	34	9	100%	5.1	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	2.2%	2.11	3.40	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	128	507	157	34	9	100%	5.1	31.0%	6.7%	24.3%	1.8%	2.11	2.36	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	117	462	129	35	7	73%	4.5	22.3%	8.4%	13.8%	2.0%	2.39	3.37	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	117	462	129	35	7	73%	4.5	22.3%	8.4%	13.8%	2.0%	2.39	3.37	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	117	462	129	35	7	73%	4.5	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.5%	2.39	2.57	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	29	27	117	518	116	54	21	93%	4.0	18.6%	9.4%	9.2%	4.2%	5.48	5.03	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	29	27	117	518	116	54	21	93%	4.0	18.6%	9.4%	9.2%	4.2%	5.48	5.03	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	29	27	117	518	116	54	21	93%	4.0	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	4.1%	5.48	4.84	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	31	13	99	434	96	37	9	42%	3.2	18.4%	7.7%	10.7%	2.1%	4.09	3.67	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	31	13	99	434	96	37	9	42%	3.2	18.4%	7.7%	10.7%	2.1%	4.09	3.67	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	31	13	99	434	96	37	9	42%	3.2	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	2.1%	4.09	3.46	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	1	41	164	46	13	7	5%	1.9	28.0%	7.9%	20.1%	4.3%	4.17	4.03	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	43	1	78	312	98	20	9	2%	1.8	28.6%	6.2%	22.4%	2.9%	3.91	3.09	+1.4
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	43	1	78	312	98	20	9	2%	1.8	28.6%	6.2%	22.4%	2.9%	3.91	3.09	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	WSH	21	0	37	148	52	7	2	0%	1.8	35.1%	4.7%	30.4%	1.4%	3.62	1.47	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	WSH	22	1	41	164	46	13	7	5%	1.9	28.0%	7.9%	20.1%	4.3%	4.17	4.08	+0.2
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	WSH	22	1	41	164	46	13	7	5%	1.9	28.0%	7.9%	20.1%	4.3%	4.17	4.08	+0.2
ROS	26	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	5	2	1	0%	1.1	22.7%	7.5%	15.2%	2.9%	3.73	3.73	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	7.5%	15.2%	2.9%	3.73	3.73	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	84	335	103	22	10	—	—	30.8%	6.5%	24.3%	2.9%	3.89	3.13	+1.7
FULL	26	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	46	196	103	22	10	—	—	52.7%	11.1%	41.6%	4.9%	7.03	2.76	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	102	0	107	453	97	37	15	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	3.3%	4.48	4.49	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	102	0	107	453	97	37	15	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	3.3%	4.52	4.56	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	98	0	103	433	91	37	15	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	3.5%	4.61	4.68	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	92	0	96	407	84	35	15	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.7%	4.74	4.84	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	97	0	102	431	92	35	14	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	3.3%	4.48	4.49	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	97	0	102	431	92	35	14	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	3.3%	4.52	4.56	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	92	0	97	410	86	35	14	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	3.5%	4.61	4.68	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	88	0	92	388	81	34	14	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.7%	4.74	4.84	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		402	1	440	1847	402	153	65	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.3%	13.5%	3.5%	4.53	4.23	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	0	200	840	183	70	30	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.3%	13.5%	3.5%	4.53	4.23	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		159	88	551	2274	504	185	60	55%	3.5	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	2.7%	3.45	3.72	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	32	200	826	183	67	22	55%	3.5	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	2.7%	3.45	3.72	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Dion (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	17.6%	8.1%	2.9%	—	4.58	21.3%	13.0%	317	-0.03	—	—	—
Brent Headrick L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	25	SW	4.54	22.6%	7.6%	4.3%	.299	2.87	28.1%	21.0%	138	-1.67	2.21	409	78
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	77
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	76
Robby Scott L 2016 · 3.73 FIP	26	SW	3.73	21.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.235	4.29	24.7%	12.6%	132	+0.56	2.39	285	74
Matt Hall L 2019 · 4.86 FIP	26	SW	4.86	23.8%	9.2%	4.8%	.358	4.47	17.5%	2.8%	37	-0.39	2.60	535	73
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	73
Samuel Strickland L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	24	SW	4.87	19.5%	7.3%	4.5%	.337	3.53	20.1%	14.4%	148	-1.34	2.91	292	73
Kyle Ryan L 2018 · 4.57 FIP	26	SW	4.57	20.9%	7.4%	4.2%	.231	4.32	20.4%	11.2%	115	-0.25	2.86	489	72
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	70
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	69
Vidal Nuño L 2015 · 4.10 FIP	28	SW	4.10	20.0%	4.8%	3.8%	.289	4.25	20.8%	16.1%	173	+0.15	4.00	424	69
Kent Emanuel L 2018 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	19.9%	6.9%	3.0%	.375	4.03	17.6%	11.8%	119	+0.07	3.03	644	69
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	68
Frank Garces L 2016 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.317	4.84	15.0%	7.1%	132	+0.52	4.32	306	68
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.94	19.6%	8.8%	307	+0.65	3.59	520	68
Eric Surkamp L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.308	5.09	16.4%	7.1%	68	+1.09	4.00	182	68
Nick Allgeyer L 2022 · 5.17 FIP	26	SW	5.17	18.6%	9.8%	4.4%	.284	5.70	18.2%	6.1%	81	+0.53	3.74	390	68
Edgar Barclay L 2023 · 4.71 FIP	25	SW	4.71	23.8%	12.1%	3.8%	.307	5.59	15.7%	5.5%	157	+0.88	2.06	402	68
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	67
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	98	20.6%	8.3%	1.30	4.59
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02