Ben Shields

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	26	17	106	3.48	2.55	31.1%	7.5%	—	K 25.3% · BB 8.2% · FIP 3.23
2025	26	MIX4 levels	14	14	55	2.78	2.26	29.5%	8.9%	—	K 23.5% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.02
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBCOL	1	1	3	4.02	4.02	24.8%	8.8%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBCOL	6	6	34	4.12	4.17	24.3%	8.9%	0.5
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBCOL	8	8	50	4.26	4.35	23.8%	9.1%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsDanny Wirchansky (age 27) · Phil Pfeifer (age 27) · T.J. Sikkema (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 110

ERA4.02

FIP4.02

K%24.8%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%16.0%

Proj IP126

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	106	441	137	33	9	65%	4.1	25.3%	8.2%	17.2%	2.3%	3.48	3.23	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	106	441	137	33	9	65%	4.1	25.3%	8.2%	17.2%	2.3%	3.48	3.23	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	17	106	441	137	33	9	65%	4.1	31.1%	7.5%	23.6%	2.0%	3.48	2.55	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	14	55	224	66	20	2	100%	3.9	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	1.1%	2.78	3.02	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	14	55	224	66	20	2	100%	3.9	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	1.1%	2.78	3.02	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	14	14	55	224	66	20	2	100%	3.9	29.5%	8.9%	20.5%	0.9%	2.78	2.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	COL	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	24.8%	8.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.02	4.02	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	110	464	113	41	14	100%	6.1	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	2.9%	4.12	4.17	+1.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	98	414	98	38	13	100%	6.1	23.8%	9.1%	14.7%	3.1%	4.26	4.35	+1.2
2030	31	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	88	370	86	35	12	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.43	4.55	+0.9
2031	32	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	77	326	74	32	12	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.8%	13.1%	3.6%	4.63	4.77	+0.6
2032	33	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	66	281	63	29	11	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.9%	4.86	5.02	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	34	144	35	13	4	100%	5.7	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	2.9%	4.12	4.17	+0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	50	211	50	19	7	100%	6.2	23.8%	9.1%	14.7%	3.1%	4.26	4.35	+0.6
2030	31	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	57	241	56	23	8	100%	5.7	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.43	4.55	+0.6
2031	32	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	56	24	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	9.8%	13.1%	3.6%	4.63	4.77	+0.4
2032	33	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	54	228	51	23	9	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.9%	4.86	5.02	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	253	1070	248	102	37	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.5%	13.7%	3.4%	4.49	4.23	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	196	81	29	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.5%	13.7%	3.4%	4.49	4.23	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		40	31	161	665	164	59	12	78%	4.0	24.7%	8.9%	15.9%	1.9%	3.24	3.16	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	39	200	826	204	73	15	78%	4.0	24.7%	8.9%	15.9%	1.9%	3.24	3.16	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 43 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.02 (+0.56)K% 29.1% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.07%	—	×0.810	23.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×1.100	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.255	×1.200	1.11%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 7 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.54 (+0.73)K% 24.1% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.770	18.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.150	15.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.969	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASomerset Patriots · 52 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.28 (+0.72)K% 29.5% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.55%	—	×0.810	23.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.55%	—	×1.100	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷1.027	×1.200	1.59%

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 52 IPFIP 2.13 → 3.18 (+1.05)K% 34.8% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.80%	—	×0.770	26.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.90%	—	×1.150	5.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷1.032	×1.250	2.97%

Result: FIP 2.13 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Shields (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.34	23.8%	14.7%	296	+0.32	—	—	—
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	71
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	69
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	68
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	68
Jared Koenig L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	28	SP-	4.06	18.1%	7.4%	2.8%	.308	3.29	23.6%	15.8%	187	-0.77	2.79	475	66
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	65
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	65
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	65
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	64
Chris Narveson L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.9%	7.7%	2.8%	.296	4.01	18.0%	8.8%	162	+0.01	4.00	625	62
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	62
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	62
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	62
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	61
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	61
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	61
Justin Marks L 2016 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	19.1%	9.3%	2.3%	.283	3.83	18.7%	7.7%	76	-0.08	3.83	324	61
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	60
Aaron Rozek L 2024 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP-	3.68	16.2%	5.8%	2.2%	.304	4.68	16.9%	9.0%	234	+1.00	3.68	579	60
Zach Logue L 2024 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP-	3.67	19.7%	6.4%	2.6%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	700	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	94	23.7%	9.3%	1.24	4.33
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Mel Queen ('66-'72, 4 WAR*)	1.9	97	24.2%*	9.0%*	1.27*	3.77*
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06