Ben Shields
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9099vR 108
ERA3.90
FIP3.90
K%24.9%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%16.0%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 17 | 106 | 441 | 137 | 33 | 9 | 65% | 4.1 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 2.2% | 3.48 | 3.20 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 17 | 106 | 441 | 137 | 33 | 9 | 65% | 4.1 | 31.1% | 7.5% | 23.6% | 2.0% | 3.48 | 2.55 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 14 | 14 | 55 | 224 | 66 | 20 | 2 | 100% | 3.9 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 0.9% | 2.78 | 2.91 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 14 | 14 | 55 | 224 | 66 | 20 | 2 | 100% | 3.9 | 29.5% | 8.9% | 20.5% | 0.9% | 2.78 | 2.26 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 133 | 48 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 8.9% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 3.90 | 3.90 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 122 | 516 | 126 | 46 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 4.02 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 117 | 493 | 119 | 45 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.17 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 110 | 463 | 109 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.35 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 102 | 432 | 100 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 95 | 399 | 91 | 40 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.77 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 87 | 366 | 82 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 4.86 | 5.02 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 79 | 334 | 79 | 34 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.7% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 4.1% | 4.96 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 48 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.5% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 66 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 4.34 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 75 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 76 | 32 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 3.8% | 4.69 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 75 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 4.1% | 4.93 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 70 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 5.18 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 65 | 28 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 4.7% | 5.30 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 80 | 80 | 481 | 2032 | 475 | 197 | 79 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 3.9% | 4.77 | 4.49 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 82 | 33 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 3.9% | 4.77 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 31 | 161 | 665 | 164 | 59 | 12 | 78% | 4.0 | 24.7% | 8.9% | 15.9% | 1.8% | 3.24 | 3.10 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 39 | 200 | 826 | 204 | 73 | 15 | 78% | 4.0 | 24.7% | 8.9% | 15.9% | 1.8% | 3.24 | 3.10 | +5.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Shields (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.90 | 24.9% | 8.9% | 2.5% | — | 4.17 | 24.1% | 15.0% | 349 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Alex Wood L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.28 | 21.2% | 5.5% | 2.3% | .285 | 3.74 | 24.6% | 18.1% | 187 | +0.46 | 3.05 | 1,009 | 73 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 72 |
| Manny Banuelos L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.46 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .338 | 5.84 | 18.7% | 5.9% | 51 | +2.38 | 2.92 | 486 | 71 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.80 | 19.5% | 4.7% | 35 | +2.06 | 3.58 | 307 | 70 |
| David Peterson L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .356 | 3.54 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 440 | -0.66 | 2.80 | 1,080 | 70 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 2.95 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.0% | .301 | 3.49 | 16.1% | 11.0% | 423 | +0.54 | 2.95 | 681 | 68 |
| Steven Brault L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | .301 | 3.75 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 70 | -0.60 | 3.14 | 691 | 67 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 67 |
| Tyler Anderson L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.77 | 22.4% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .315 | 4.12 | 20.7% | 12.2% | 256 | +0.35 | 3.14 | 1,288 | 67 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 66 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 66 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .312 | 3.34 | 26.6% | 15.2% | 121 | -1.19 | 3.14 | 473 | 66 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 66 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 66 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.50 | 24.2% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.72 | 23.3% | 14.9% | 80 | +0.22 | 3.21 | 372 | 65 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 65 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 65 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 65 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.84 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .275 | 5.64 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.80 | 2.96 | 379 | 64 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 105 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 1.22 | 4.33 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Jhoulys Chacín ('22) | 7 | 108 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 1.13 | 4.51 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Garrett Richards ('22) | 7 | 82 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 0.98 | 3.95 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |