Ben Shields — OGILVIE

Ben Shields P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA3.88

FIP3.88

K%24.9%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%16.3%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5560

CMD4555

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	106	441	137	33	9	65%	4.1	25.3%	8.2%	17.2%	2.3%	3.48	3.23	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	106	441	137	33	9	65%	4.1	25.3%	8.2%	17.2%	2.3%	3.48	3.23	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	17	106	441	137	33	9	65%	4.1	31.1%	7.5%	23.6%	2.0%	3.48	2.55	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	14	55	224	66	20	2	100%	3.9	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	1.1%	2.78	3.02	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	14	55	224	66	20	2	100%	3.9	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	1.1%	2.78	3.02	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	14	14	55	224	66	20	2	100%	3.9	29.5%	8.9%	20.5%	0.9%	2.78	2.26	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	COL	2	2	11	46	12	4	1	100%	5.5	24.9%	8.7%	16.3%	2.6%	3.88	3.88	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	122	516	126	45	14	100%	6.1	24.5%	8.7%	15.8%	2.7%	3.97	4.01	+1.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	117	493	119	44	14	100%	6.1	24.1%	8.9%	15.2%	2.9%	4.09	4.15	+1.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	110	463	109	42	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.1%	14.5%	3.1%	4.24	4.34	+0.7
2030	31	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	102	432	100	41	14	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.4%	13.8%	3.3%	4.41	4.53	+0.4
2031	32	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	95	399	91	39	14	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	3.6%	4.62	4.76	+0.2
2032	33	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	87	366	82	38	14	100%	6.2	22.2%	10.3%	12.0%	3.8%	4.85	5.01	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	46	194	48	17	6	100%	5.8	24.5%	8.7%	15.8%	3.1%	4.20	4.24	+0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	65	274	66	24	9	100%	5.9	24.1%	8.9%	15.2%	3.3%	4.33	4.39	+0.6
2029	30	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	75	317	75	29	11	100%	6.2	23.6%	9.1%	14.5%	3.6%	4.50	4.60	+0.5
2030	31	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	78	329	76	31	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.4%	13.8%	3.8%	4.69	4.81	+0.3
2031	32	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	78	329	75	32	14	100%	6.0	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	4.1%	4.92	5.06	+0.1
2032	33	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	75	317	70	32	14	100%	6.2	22.2%	10.3%	12.0%	4.4%	5.17	5.33	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	69	417	1759	410	166	67	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.8%	4.67	4.40	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	197	80	32	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.8%	4.67	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		40	31	161	665	164	59	12	78%	4.0	24.7%	8.9%	15.9%	1.9%	3.24	3.16	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	39	200	826	204	73	15	78%	4.0	24.7%	8.9%	15.9%	1.9%	3.24	3.16	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Shields (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.88	24.9%	8.7%	2.6%	—	4.16	24.1%	15.2%	349	+0.28	—	—	—
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	72
Manny Banuelos L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	27	SP-	3.48	23.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.338	5.89	18.7%	5.9%	51	+2.41	2.95	486	71
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	70
Matt Tomshaw L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	27	SP-	3.04	22.7%	5.4%	2.1%	.301	3.56	16.1%	11.0%	423	+0.52	3.04	681	68
Cole Ragans L 2023 · 3.14 FIP	25	SP-	3.14	28.1%	10.6%	1.9%	.283	3.24	31.3%	22.0%	283	+0.10	2.48	623	68
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	18.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.45	17.1%	7.9%	185	+0.20	3.57	534	68
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.84	21.0%	6.1%	51	+0.83	3.51	432	68
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	68
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	67
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	66
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	65
Cody Bradford L 2023 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	19.5%	4.9%	3.1%	.291	3.64	19.1%	14.4%	111	-0.13	3.37	456	65
Eric Surkamp L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.308	5.09	16.4%	7.1%	68	+1.09	4.00	182	65
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	65
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	65
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	65
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	65
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	64
Tyler Anderson L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.315	4.35	20.7%	12.2%	256	+0.33	3.10	1,288	64
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	108	23.7%	9.2%	1.20	4.25
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24