Ben Shields
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.6
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.06
FIP4.06
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.5%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 26 | 17 | 106 | 441 | 137 | 33 | 9 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.48 | 3.23 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 14 | 14 | 55 | 224 | 66 | 20 | 2 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 1.2% | 2.78 | 3.05 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | COL | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 54 | 21 | 6 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | COL | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | COL | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | COL | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | COL | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | COL | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | COL | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | COL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 31 | 161 | 665 | 164 | 59 | 13 | 24.7% | 8.9% | 1.9% | 3.24 | 3.17 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 39 | 200 | 826 | 204 | 73 | 16 | 24.7% | 8.9% | 1.9% | 3.24 | 3.17 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Shields (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.06 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.18 | 23.6% | 14.2% | 155 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 92 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 87 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 85 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.79 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 0.8% | .287 | 5.28 | 16.1% | -11.9% | 11 | +2.49 | 2.79 | 159 | 85 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2027 · 2.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.83 | 24.3% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .288 | 3.76 | 22.5% | 14.2% | 161 | +0.93 | 2.83 | 223 | 84 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 84 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2028 · 2.98 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.98 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .238 | 5.33 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.98 | 145 | 83 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.00 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 1.4% | .335 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 0.1% | 47 | +1.29 | 3.00 | 226 | 83 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.79 | 25.7% | 8.3% | 1.5% | .295 | 3.11 | 25.0% | 16.0% | 123 | +0.32 | 2.65 | 256 | 83 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.09 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 1.7% | .291 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 97 | +1.47 | 2.55 | 261 | 82 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 82 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .368 | 3.62 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.27 | 3.02 | 153 | 81 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 26.6% | 9.7% | 4.0% | .216 | 3.74 | 25.0% | 13.4% | 39 | -0.55 | 2.75 | 176 | 80 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 1.7% | .235 | 4.33 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 94 | +1.02 | 2.79 | 325 | 80 |
| Mike Dunn L 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 80 |
| Conor Lillis-White L 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 182 | 80 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 79 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .226 | 5.06 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.32 | 2.02 | 280 | 79 |
| Boone Logan L 2029 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 78 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .263 | 7.05 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 21 | +3.46 | 3.59 | 364 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $5M | $7M | +$2M | ||