Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 23 | 132 | 515 | 109 | 22 | 8 | 92% | 5.3 | 16.1% | 5.0% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 1.91 | 3.41 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 23 | 132 | 515 | 109 | 22 | 8 | 92% | 5.3 | 21.2% | 4.3% | 16.9% | 1.6% | 1.91 | 2.74 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 23 | 19 | 109 | 468 | 124 | 23 | 15 | 83% | 4.8 | 21.5% | 5.4% | 16.1% | 4.5% | 4.69 | 4.47 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 23 | 19 | 109 | 468 | 124 | 23 | 15 | 83% | 4.8 | 26.5% | 4.9% | 21.6% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 3.25 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 136 | 571 | 136 | 48 | 28 | 90% | 4.7 | 20.9% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 4.18 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 136 | 571 | 136 | 48 | 28 | 90% | 4.7 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 15.4% | 4.9% | 4.18 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 18 | 79 | 350 | 87 | 31 | 14 | 90% | 4.0 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.45 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 18 | 79 | 350 | 87 | 31 | 14 | 90% | 4.0 | 24.9% | 8.9% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 5.45 | 4.37 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 28 | 11 | 70 | 322 | 86 | 13 | 11 | 39% | 2.5 | 23.5% | 4.2% | 19.3% | 4.6% | 7.93 | 4.18 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 28 | 11 | 70 | 322 | 86 | 13 | 11 | 39% | 2.5 | 26.7% | 4.0% | 22.7% | 3.4% | 7.93 | 3.24 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 28 | 16 | 106 | 452 | 99 | 33 | 17 | 57% | 3.8 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 5.0% | 4.43 | 5.19 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 28 | 16 | 106 | 452 | 99 | 33 | 17 | 57% | 3.8 | 21.9% | 7.3% | 14.6% | 3.8% | 4.43 | 4.25 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 46 | 6 | 63 | 256 | 58 | 33 | 8 | 13% | 1.4 | 19.9% | 13.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 3.16 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TOR | 65 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 58 | 20 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 6.9% | 13.0% | 4.0% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 6.9% | 13.0% | 4.0% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 131 | 546 | 116 | 53 | 20 | — | — | 21.2% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 4.06 | 4.95 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 7 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 20.0% | 6.9% | 13.0% | 4.0% | 4.88 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 54 | 20 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 4.1% | 4.93 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 50 | 20 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 4.3% | 5.04 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 46 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 5.20 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 4.1% | 4.93 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 4.3% | 5.04 | 5.15 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 31 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 5.20 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 1 | 112 | 480 | 96 | 35 | 22 | 1% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 7.3% | 12.6% | 4.7% | 5.53 | 4.89 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 177 | 2 | 200 | 854 | 171 | 62 | 39 | 1% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 7.3% | 12.6% | 4.7% | 5.53 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 199 | 119 | 695 | 2934 | 593 | 223 | 118 | 60% | 3.5 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 4.0% | 4.30 | 4.57 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 64 | 34 | 60% | 3.5 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 4.0% | 4.30 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Plassmeyer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 20.0% | 6.9% | 4.0% | — | 5.15 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 180 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 79 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | 4.86 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 69 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 523 | 71 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 71 |
| Andy Otero L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 69 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 67 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 67 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 66 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 66 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 65 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 65 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 64 |
| Brandon Leibrandt L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.20 | 19.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | .351 | 4.38 | 20.0% | 12.8% | 125 | -0.82 | 2.90 | 692 | 64 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.79 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .334 | 5.49 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.70 | 2.82 | 845 | 64 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 5.94 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.94 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 282 | 64 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 64 |
| Roy Merritt L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 63 |
| Onelki Garcia L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.07 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 164 | 62 |
| Kyle Hart L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.32 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .286 | 4.42 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 196 | -0.90 | 3.64 | 856 | 61 |
| John Anderson L 2024 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 235 | 60 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 62 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.63 | 5.00 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |