Cole Ragans
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.8 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95104vR 114
ERA3.78
FIP3.73
K%31.2%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%20.6%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p9031.7%
K%
p9029.8%
xwOBA vs
p230.344
CT (6%)
CU (9%)
SL (13%)
CH-1.0 (16%)
FB-1.8 (56%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 4 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 1.9 | 23.7% | 15.8% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 4.70 | 3.10 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 4 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 1.9 | 23.7% | 15.8% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 4.70 | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 81 | 339 | 87 | 34 | 12 | 89% | 4.2 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 4.35 | 5.15 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 81 | 339 | 87 | 34 | 12 | 89% | 4.2 | 25.7% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 3.5% | 4.35 | 4.14 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 135 | 560 | 140 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 3.61 | 4.28 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 135 | 560 | 140 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 5.0 | 25.0% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 3.61 | 3.61 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 19 | 124 | 512 | 150 | 56 | 9 | 53% | 3.5 | 28.4% | 11.1% | 17.3% | 1.9% | 3.62 | 3.17 | +3.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 19 | 124 | 512 | 150 | 56 | 9 | 53% | 3.5 | 29.3% | 10.9% | 18.4% | 1.8% | 3.62 | 2.98 | +3.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 32 | 32 | 186 | 762 | 223 | 66 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 29.3% | 8.7% | 20.6% | 2.1% | 3.14 | 2.88 | +5.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 32 | 32 | 186 | 762 | 223 | 66 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 29.3% | 8.7% | 20.6% | 2.0% | 3.14 | 2.82 | +5.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 72 | 300 | 118 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 38.1% | 7.8% | 30.4% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 2.46 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 72 | 300 | 118 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 39.3% | 7.7% | 31.7% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 2.41 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 9 | 9 | 40 | 168 | 48 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 29.8% | 15.2% | 14.6% | 6.6% | 4.54 | 6.15 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | KC | 5 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 31.2% | 10.6% | 20.6% | 3.5% | 3.78 | 3.73 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | KC | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 31.2% | 10.6% | 20.6% | 3.4% | 3.71 | 3.66 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | KC | — | — | 68 | 287 | 85 | 37 | 15 | — | — | 29.7% | 12.7% | 16.9% | 5.3% | 4.22 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | KC | — | — | 63 | 268 | 85 | 37 | 15 | — | — | 31.7% | 13.6% | 18.1% | 5.6% | 4.48 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 90 | 381 | 117 | 41 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.8% | 10.8% | 20.0% | 3.7% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 85 | 358 | 108 | 40 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.1% | 11.1% | 19.0% | 3.9% | 4.36 | 4.46 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 117 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.8% | 10.8% | 20.0% | 3.5% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 108 | 40 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.1% | 11.1% | 19.0% | 3.7% | 4.29 | 4.39 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 127 | 110 | 622 | 2593 | 768 | 258 | 76 | 87% | 4.9 | 29.6% | 10.0% | 19.7% | 2.9% | 3.88 | 3.47 | +14.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 35 | 200 | 833 | 247 | 83 | 24 | 87% | 4.9 | 29.6% | 10.0% | 19.7% | 2.9% | 3.88 | 3.47 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 122 | 645 | 2679 | 732 | 265 | 80 | 85% | 4.5 | 27.3% | 9.9% | 17.4% | 3.0% | 3.75 | 3.68 | +13.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 38 | 200 | 830 | 227 | 82 | 25 | 85% | 4.5 | 27.3% | 9.9% | 17.4% | 3.0% | 3.75 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Ragans (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.25 | 32.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.35 | 30.5% | 19.6% | 175 | +1.10 | — | — | — |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 48 |
| Andrew Heaney L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.34 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | .302 | 3.97 | 28.8% | 22.0% | 269 | -0.37 | 3.23 | 1,197 | 45 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.72 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 372 | 45 |
| Ben Shields L 2024 · 2.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.91 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 0.9% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 147 | 44 |
| Joey Lucchesi L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.19 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .297 | 4.74 | 16.7% | 5.5% | 243 | +1.55 | 3.19 | 817 | 43 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 2.48 FIP | 28 | SP | 2.48 | 28.3% | 6.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.44 | 30.7% | 23.1% | 331 | +0.96 | 2.48 | 924 | 42 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 28 | SP | 2.68 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 0.4% | .220 | 4.83 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 66 | +2.15 | 2.68 | 175 | 41 |
| Andy Otero L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 40 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.80 | 19.5% | 4.7% | 35 | +2.06 | 3.58 | 307 | 40 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 37 |
| Carlos Rodón L 2026 · 2.30 FIP | 28 | SP | 2.30 | 34.6% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .259 | 3.41 | 28.8% | 21.0% | 417 | +1.11 | 2.22 | 1,347 | 37 |
| Brandon Walter L 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.24 | 24.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | .234 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 391 | 37 |
| Sean Manaea L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.66 | 20.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | .309 | 3.94 | 24.8% | 18.0% | 455 | +0.28 | 3.15 | 1,435 | 37 |
| Steven Brault L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.49 | 21.3% | 12.4% | 1.1% | .233 | 4.14 | 15.0% | 7.1% | 28 | +0.65 | 3.14 | 691 | 36 |
| Steven Matz L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.21 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 3.9% | .292 | 3.99 | 23.9% | 17.6% | 244 | -0.22 | 3.19 | 1,199 | 36 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.20 | 27.4% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .361 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 14.2% | 309 | +0.61 | 3.20 | 1,520 | 36 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 35 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 35 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.44 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 332 | 35 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.47 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.78 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.31 | 3.42 | 383 | 35 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 79 | 31.0% | 10.3% | 1.33 | 4.02 |
| Brad Peacock ('19) | 4 | 80 | 28.7% | 9.2% | 1.18 | 3.48 |
| Dinelson Lamet ('23) | 6 | 61 | 30.0% | 10.7% | 1.29 | 4.66 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |