Cole Ragans

P Kansas City Royals

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.0 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANExtFA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MLBKC	32	32	186	3.14	2.82	29.3%	8.7%	6.1
2025	27	MIX3 levels	16	16	72	4.62	2.41	39.3%	7.7%	2.7	K 38.1% · BB 7.8% · FIP 2.48
2026	28	MIX2 levels	9	9	40	4.54	6.10	28.6%	14.3%	-0.3	K 29.8% · BB 15.2% · FIP 6.44
2027PROJ	29	MLBKC	5	5	32	3.96	4.20	32.0%	10.6%	0.5
2028PROJ	30	MLBKC	14	14	83	4.07	4.24	31.3%	10.9%	1.0
2029PROJ	31	MLBKC	14	14	86	4.30	4.47	30.5%	11.3%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.169First FA2029

2027Ext$4M2028Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

FB Velo55

xwOBA vs23

CompsYusei Kikuchi (age 29) · Joey Lucchesi (age 28) · John Lamb (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA3.96

FIP4.20

K%32.0%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%21.3%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p9031.7%

p9029.8%

xwOBA vs

p230.344

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.169 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$4M	+0.5	$2M	-$2M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+1.0	$7M	+$0.9M
Totals		$12M		$9M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	4	2	8	38	9	6	0	50%	1.9	23.7%	15.8%	7.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.10	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	4	2	8	38	9	6	0	50%	1.9	23.7%	15.8%	7.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.10	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	81	339	87	34	12	89%	4.2	20.2%	11.2%	8.9%	4.2%	4.35	5.14	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	81	339	87	34	12	89%	4.2	25.7%	10.0%	15.6%	3.5%	4.35	4.14	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	135	560	140	47	16	100%	5.0	21.8%	8.8%	12.9%	3.2%	3.61	4.15	+2.0
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	135	560	140	47	16	100%	5.0	25.0%	8.4%	16.6%	2.9%	3.61	3.61	+2.9
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	19	124	512	150	56	9	53%	3.5	28.3%	10.6%	17.7%	1.9%	3.62	3.12	+3.5
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	19	124	512	150	56	9	53%	3.5	29.3%	10.9%	18.4%	1.8%	3.62	2.98	+3.7
2024	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	186	762	223	66	15	100%	5.8	29.3%	8.7%	20.6%	2.1%	3.14	2.89	+5.9
2024	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	186	762	223	66	15	100%	5.8	29.3%	8.7%	20.6%	2.1%	3.14	2.89	+5.9
2024	26	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	32	32	186	762	223	66	15	100%	5.8	29.3%	8.7%	20.6%	2.0%	3.14	2.82	+6.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	72	300	118	23	9	100%	4.5	38.1%	7.8%	30.4%	2.9%	4.62	2.48	+2.7
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	72	300	118	23	9	100%	4.5	38.1%	7.8%	30.4%	2.9%	4.62	2.48	+2.7
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	72	300	118	23	9	100%	4.5	39.3%	7.7%	31.7%	3.0%	4.62	2.41	+2.7
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	40	168	48	24	11	100%	4.4	29.8%	15.2%	14.6%	7.2%	4.54	6.44	-0.4
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	40	168	48	24	11	100%	4.4	29.8%	15.2%	14.6%	7.2%	4.54	6.44	-0.4
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	40	168	48	24	11	100%	4.4	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	6.5%	4.54	6.10	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			91	74	419	1736	506	165	45	81%	4.6	29.1%	9.5%	19.6%	2.6%	3.76	3.26	+11.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	KC	5	5	32	135	43	14	5	100%	6.4	32.0%	10.6%	21.3%	3.8%	3.96	4.20	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	83	350	110	38	14	100%	5.9	31.3%	10.9%	20.3%	4.0%	4.23	4.40	+1.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	86	361	110	41	15	100%	6.1	30.5%	11.3%	19.2%	4.2%	4.47	4.64	+0.8
2030	32	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	78	331	98	39	15	100%	6.0	29.7%	11.7%	18.0%	4.4%	4.72	4.89	+0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	83	350	110	38	13	100%	5.9	31.3%	10.9%	20.3%	3.7%	4.07	4.24	+1.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	86	363	111	41	14	100%	6.1	30.5%	11.3%	19.2%	3.9%	4.30	4.47	+0.8
2030	32	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	78	329	98	38	14	100%	6.0	29.7%	11.7%	18.0%	4.1%	4.54	4.71	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	115	666	2778	824	283	85	87%	5.0	29.7%	10.2%	19.5%	3.1%	3.96	3.57	+14.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	35	200	834	247	85	26	87%	5.0	29.7%	10.2%	19.5%	3.1%	3.96	3.57	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		143	122	645	2679	731	263	79	85%	4.5	27.3%	9.8%	17.5%	3.0%	3.75	3.66	+13.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	38	200	830	227	81	25	85%	4.5	27.3%	9.8%	17.5%	3.0%	3.75	3.66	+3.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 7 IPFIP 1.58 → 2.35 (+0.77)K% 56.0% → 48.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	56.00%	—	×0.860	48.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×0.900	7.20%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.003	×1.100	4.39%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 1.58 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 28 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.45 (+0.35)K% 30.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.83%	—	×0.860	26.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×0.900	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷0.942	×1.100	1.95%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 51 IPFIP 3.20 → 4.31 (+1.11)K% 31.2% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.810	25.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.13%	—	×1.100	10.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.88%	÷0.915	×1.200	3.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARound Rock Express · 43 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.41 (+0.50)K% 27.0% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.97%	—	×0.880	23.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.74%	—	×1.050	7.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷0.957	×1.100	2.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hickory Crawdads · 44 IPFIP 2.76 → 4.05 (+1.29)K% 31.2% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.21%	—	×0.770	24.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.09%	—	×1.150	9.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷0.881	×1.250	3.28%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 36 IPFIP 5.59 → 6.27 (+0.68)K% 19.9% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.88%	—	×0.810	16.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.05%	—	×1.100	13.25%
HR / BF /BF	4.82%	÷1.114	×1.200	5.19%

Result: FIP 5.59 → 6.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKAZL Rangers · 8 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.24 (+1.14)K% 23.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.68%	—	×0.680	16.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×1.250	19.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Ragans (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	32.0%	10.6%	3.8%	—	4.64	30.5%	19.2%	247	+0.44	—	—	—
Yusei Kikuchi L 2020 · 3.23 FIP	29	SP	3.23	24.2%	10.3%	1.6%	.306	4.42	25.7%	16.5%	425	+1.19	3.23	1,056	54
Joey Lucchesi L 2021 · 3.18 FIP	28	SP-	3.18	26.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.297	4.64	16.4%	6.5%	243	+1.46	3.12	817	54
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	53
Andrew Heaney L 2020 · 3.53 FIP	29	SP	3.53	25.1%	6.5%	3.2%	.297	4.06	27.3%	19.4%	350	+0.53	3.19	1,226	52
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	46
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	45
Erik Bedard L 2008 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	20.7%	10.7%	2.6%	.266	3.61	24.2%	14.9%	212	-0.51	2.96	1,317	42
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	41
Aríel Miranda L 2018 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP	4.21	17.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	431	41
J.A. Happ L 2012 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	23.0%	8.8%	3.0%	.313	3.87	20.1%	12.5%	423	-0.07	3.37	1,890	40
James Paxton L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	29	SP	3.21	32.2%	6.5%	3.7%	.298	3.63	29.3%	20.7%	171	+0.42	2.46	1,022	40
Tom Gorzelanny L 2011 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP-	3.94	21.3%	6.3%	3.4%	.282	3.69	22.2%	13.4%	178	-0.25	2.67	899	39
Nick Additon L 2017 · 3.13 FIP	29	SP	3.13	19.3%	9.1%	0.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	217	38
Zach Penrod L 2024 · 3.37 FIP	27	SP-	3.37	29.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.324	5.24	15.8%	-0.3%	79	+1.87	3.37	174	37
Kaz Ishii L 2003 · 4.51 FIP	29	SP	4.51	21.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.280	5.18	13.2%	0.9%	263	+0.67	4.51	564	37
Brandon Claussen L 2006 · 4.89 FIP	27	SP	4.89	16.2%	7.7%	4.0%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	310	36
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	36
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	35
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	35
Wandy Rodriguez L 2008 · 3.41 FIP	29	SP	3.41	22.3%	7.0%	2.4%	.304	3.61	21.7%	14.2%	592	+0.20	3.37	1,572	35

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	78	29.8%	10.3%	1.25	4.02
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Tom Hall ('68-'77, 7 WAR*)	4.3	95	30.7%*	10.2%*	1.35*	3.95*
Ron Davis ('78-'88, 6 WAR*)	3.7	83	28.0%*	9.3%*	1.25*	4.20*
Dave LaRoche ('70-'83, 10 WAR*)	5.2	81	27.8%*	10.1%*	1.16*	4.03*
Octavio Dotel ('13)	4.8	79	28.4%	10.2%	1.11	3.78
Ugueth Urbina ('05)	3.5	70	27.9%	10.5%	1.11	3.45