Cole Ragans — OGILVIE

Cole Ragans P Kansas City Royals

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.4 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92100vR 108

ERA3.43

FIP3.39

K%31.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%20.7%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p9031.7%

p9029.8%

xwOBA vs

p230.344

CT (6%)

CU (9%)

SL (13%)

CH-1.0 (16%)

FB-1.8 (56%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.169 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	—	—	—
2027	Ext	$4M	+0.7	$3M	-$1M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$4M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	4	2	8	38	9	6	0	50%	1.9	23.7%	15.8%	7.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.10	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	4	2	8	38	9	6	0	50%	1.9	23.7%	15.8%	7.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.10	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	81	339	87	34	12	89%	4.2	20.2%	11.2%	8.9%	4.2%	4.35	5.14	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	81	339	87	34	12	89%	4.2	25.7%	10.0%	15.6%	3.5%	4.35	4.14	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	135	560	140	47	16	100%	5.0	21.8%	8.8%	12.9%	3.2%	3.61	4.15	+1.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	135	560	140	47	16	100%	5.0	25.0%	8.4%	16.6%	2.9%	3.61	3.61	+2.1
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	19	124	512	150	56	9	53%	3.5	28.1%	10.6%	17.4%	1.9%	3.62	3.14	+2.7
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	19	124	512	150	56	9	53%	3.5	28.1%	10.6%	17.4%	1.9%	3.62	3.14	+2.7
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	19	124	512	150	56	9	53%	3.5	29.3%	10.9%	18.4%	1.8%	3.62	2.98	+2.9
2024	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	186	762	223	66	15	100%	5.8	29.3%	8.7%	20.6%	2.1%	3.14	2.89	+4.7
2024	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	186	762	223	66	15	100%	5.8	29.3%	8.7%	20.6%	2.1%	3.14	2.89	+4.7
2024	26	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	32	32	186	762	223	66	15	100%	5.8	29.3%	8.7%	20.6%	2.0%	3.14	2.82	+4.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	72	300	118	23	9	100%	4.5	38.1%	7.8%	30.4%	2.9%	4.62	2.48	+2.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	72	300	118	23	9	100%	4.5	38.1%	7.8%	30.4%	2.9%	4.62	2.48	+2.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	72	300	118	23	9	100%	4.5	39.3%	7.7%	31.7%	3.0%	4.62	2.41	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			91	74	419	1736	506	165	45	81%	4.6	29.1%	9.5%	19.6%	2.6%	3.76	3.26	+8.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	9	9	40	168	48	24	11	100%	4.4	29.8%	15.2%	14.6%	7.2%	4.54	6.44	-0.7
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	9	9	40	168	48	24	11	100%	4.4	29.8%	15.2%	14.6%	7.2%	4.54	6.44	-0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	KC	1	1	4	17	3	1	1	100%	4.3	17.6%	5.9%	11.8%	5.9%	2.08	5.58	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	KC	8	8	35	151	45	23	10	100%	4.4	29.8%	15.2%	14.6%	6.6%	4.84	6.15	-0.5
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	KC	8	8	35	151	45	23	10	100%	4.4	29.8%	15.2%	14.6%	6.6%	4.84	6.15	-0.5
ROS	28	MLB MLE	KC	1	1	3	11	3	1	0	100%	2.6	31.2%	10.5%	20.7%	2.9%	3.43	3.39	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	KC	1	1	3	13	4	1	0	100%	3.0	31.2%	10.5%	20.7%	2.7%	3.32	3.28	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	42	179	51	25	11	—	—	28.7%	14.1%	14.7%	6.3%	4.47	6.26	-0.8
FULL	28	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	38	160	51	25	11	—	—	32.1%	15.7%	16.4%	7.1%	4.97	6.25	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	90	381	117	41	14	100%	6.0	30.8%	10.8%	20.0%	3.7%	4.21	4.26	+0.7
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	85	358	108	40	14	100%	6.1	30.1%	11.1%	19.1%	3.9%	4.36	4.46	+0.4
2029	31	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	79	334	105	35	14	100%	6.1	31.4%	10.6%	20.7%	4.1%	4.40	4.43	+0.4
2030	32	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	73	309	94	34	13	100%	6.1	30.6%	11.0%	19.6%	4.3%	4.57	4.68	+0.2
2031	33	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	67	284	84	33	13	100%	6.1	29.7%	11.5%	18.3%	4.6%	4.80	4.96	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	90	380	117	41	13	100%	6.0	30.8%	10.8%	20.0%	3.4%	4.06	4.11	+0.7
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	85	359	108	40	13	100%	6.1	30.1%	11.1%	19.1%	3.6%	4.20	4.30	+0.4
2029	31	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	79	334	105	35	13	100%	6.1	31.4%	10.6%	20.7%	3.8%	4.23	4.26	+0.4
2030	32	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	73	308	94	34	12	100%	6.1	30.6%	11.0%	19.6%	4.0%	4.39	4.50	+0.2
2031	33	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	67	283	84	32	12	100%	6.1	29.7%	11.5%	18.3%	4.3%	4.61	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		157	140	816	3413	1018	349	108	89%	5.2	29.8%	10.2%	19.6%	3.2%	4.01	3.62	+12.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	34	200	836	249	85	26	89%	5.2	29.8%	10.2%	19.6%	3.2%	4.01	3.62	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		143	122	645	2679	730	263	79	85%	4.5	27.3%	9.8%	17.4%	3.0%	3.75	3.67	+10.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	38	200	830	226	81	25	85%	4.5	27.3%	9.8%	17.4%	3.0%	3.75	3.67	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Ragans (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.26	32.2%	8.5%	2.6%	—	4.38	30.8%	19.9%	254	+1.12	—	—	—
Tyler Skaggs L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	23.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	372	57
Andrew Heaney L 2019 · 4.19 FIP	28	SP	4.19	28.9%	7.1%	4.8%	.302	3.89	28.8%	22.0%	269	-0.30	3.19	1,197	57
Joey Lucchesi L 2021 · 3.18 FIP	28	SP-	3.18	26.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.297	4.67	15.9%	6.1%	243	+1.49	3.18	817	55
James Paxton L 2017 · 2.46 FIP	28	SP	2.46	28.3%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	3.43	30.7%	23.1%	331	+0.97	2.46	924	52
Sean Manaea L 2020 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP	3.75	20.3%	3.6%	3.5%	.309	3.89	24.8%	18.0%	455	+0.14	3.28	1,494	48
Steven Matz L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP	4.21	22.1%	6.5%	3.9%	.292	4.03	23.9%	17.6%	244	-0.18	3.19	1,220	47
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2021 · 3.25 FIP	28	SP	3.25	27.4%	7.0%	2.9%	.361	3.79	22.1%	14.2%	309	+0.54	3.25	1,579	47
Steven Brault L 2020 · 3.53 FIP	28	SP	3.53	21.3%	12.4%	1.2%	.233	4.24	15.0%	7.1%	28	+0.71	3.12	691	46
Carlos Rodón L 2021 · 2.32 FIP	28	SP	2.32	34.6%	6.6%	2.4%	.259	3.42	28.8%	21.0%	417	+1.10	2.21	1,371	45
Danny Duffy L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	28	SP	3.42	21.3%	6.7%	2.3%	.306	4.64	21.0%	11.8%	342	+1.22	3.29	915	41
Andrew Barbosa L 2016 · 2.70 FIP	28	SP	2.70	20.3%	8.3%	0.5%	.220	4.67	20.2%	10.6%	66	+1.97	2.70	175	41
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	41
Matthew Boyd L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	30.2%	6.2%	5.2%	.301	4.32	21.2%	13.6%	152	+0.15	2.22	1,440	40
Drew Pomeranz L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	28	SP	3.74	23.5%	9.3%	2.6%	.308	4.62	25.6%	14.1%	216	+0.88	2.21	751	40
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	40
Bruce Zimmermann L 2023 · 3.15 FIP	28	SP-	3.15	20.7%	6.9%	1.7%	.367	4.12	17.9%	12.3%	293	+0.97	2.91	934	40
Madison Bumgarner L 2018 · 3.86 FIP	28	SP	3.86	19.8%	7.3%	2.8%	.268	4.30	21.8%	16.5%	396	+0.44	2.80	1,257	38
Jose Quintana L 2017 · 3.46 FIP	28	SP	3.46	26.2%	7.2%	3.0%	.292	4.02	20.9%	13.4%	345	+0.56	2.95	1,596	38
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	37
Jordan Montgomery L 2021 · 3.49 FIP	28	SP	3.49	24.5%	7.7%	2.7%	.305	3.63	20.1%	14.0%	484	+0.14	3.11	1,180	37

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	80	30.8%	10.5%	1.48	4.24
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Feliz ('21)	1.2	47	30.5%	9.8%	1.48	5.05
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15