Cole Ragans
P
Kansas City Royals
+1.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.4 · 2027
ERA3.38
FIP3.30
xFIP5.33
SIERA5.50
K%31.3%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%22.6%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2027
K†7070
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p5926.7%
K%
p5923.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.394
CT (6%)
CU (9%)
SL (13%)
CH-1.0 (16%)
FB-1.8 (56%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 4 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 9 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.70 | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 19 | 17 | 81 | 339 | 87 | 34 | 12 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | 4.35 | 5.12 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 27 | 27 | 135 | 560 | 140 | 47 | 16 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 3.61 | 4.21 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 36 | 19 | 124 | 512 | 150 | 56 | 9 | 28.4% | 11.1% | 1.8% | 3.62 | 3.07 | +3.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 32 | 32 | 186 | 762 | 223 | 66 | 15 | 29.3% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 3.14 | 2.85 | +5.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 16 | 16 | 72 | 300 | 118 | 23 | 9 | 38.1% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 2.44 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 4 | 4 | 17 | 67 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 23.9% | 14.9% | 4.5% | 3.78 | 5.43 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | KC | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 29.9% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 3.34 | 3.33 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | KC | — | — | 47 | 196 | 55 | 23 | 7 | 27.8% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 3.49 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 107 | 35 | 10 | 29.5% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 3.74 | 3.76 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 77 | 327 | 101 | 30 | 9 | 30.9% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 3.65 | 3.59 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 89 | 27 | 9 | 30.3% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 3.67 | 3.69 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 78 | 24 | 8 | 29.7% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 3.75 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | KC | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 68 | 22 | 7 | 29.0% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 3.86 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | KC | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 58 | 20 | 7 | 28.3% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | KC | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 27.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.13 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | KC | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 26.8% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.28 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 37 | MLB | KC | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 26.0% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.45 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 138 | 117 | 622 | 2578 | 698 | 250 | 69 | 27.1% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 3.70 | 3.51 | +12.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 38 | 200 | 828 | 224 | 80 | 22 | 27.1% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 3.70 | 3.51 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Ragans (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.26 | 32.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | — | 3.68 | 30.2% | 20.9% | 233 | +0.42 | — | — | — |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 59 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.73 | 3.02 | 153 | 59 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 59 |
| Boone Logan L 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 59 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 58 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 58 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.58 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 58 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 58 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 57 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.33 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 4.0% | .329 | 4.33 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.00 | 2.70 | 230 | 57 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2027 · 2.98 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.98 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .238 | 5.33 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.98 | 145 | 57 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 57 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 57 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 2.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.79 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 0.8% | .287 | 5.28 | 16.1% | -11.9% | 11 | +2.49 | 2.79 | 159 | 57 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 57 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 57 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 57 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 57 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 2.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.34 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 0.4% | .319 | 2.94 | 23.8% | 13.3% | 111 | +0.60 | 2.34 | 202 | 56 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.44 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .314 | 3.96 | 26.1% | 17.8% | 84 | +0.52 | 3.44 | 522 | 56 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2022
Service 3.169 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2028
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $4M | +1.1 | $9M | +$4M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.4 | $12M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $10M | +1.3 | $11M | +$1M |
| Totals | $18M | $31M | +$13M | ||