Zach Penrod — OGILVIE

Zach Penrod P Rochester Red Wings

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%19.9%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%5.1%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

SL+1.4 (24%)

CH (30%)

FB-1.4 (45%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	4	3	12	56	16	6	3	75%	2.9	19.4%	13.4%	6.0%	7.5%	6.17	7.27	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	4	3	12	56	16	6	3	75%	2.9	28.6%	10.7%	17.9%	5.4%	6.17	5.24	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	4	4	21	89	20	11	1	100%	5.2	17.3%	14.2%	3.1%	1.5%	2.18	4.27	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	4	4	21	89	20	11	1	100%	5.2	17.3%	14.2%	3.1%	1.5%	2.18	4.27	—
2023	26	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	4	4	21	89	20	11	1	100%	5.2	22.5%	12.4%	10.1%	1.1%	2.18	3.39	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	12	67	287	96	37	5	41%	2.3	28.5%	12.1%	16.4%	2.2%	4.05	3.41	+0.9
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	12	67	287	96	37	5	41%	2.3	28.5%	12.1%	16.4%	2.2%	4.05	3.41	+0.9
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	12	67	287	96	37	5	41%	2.3	33.4%	12.9%	20.6%	1.7%	4.05	2.86	+1.4
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	6	33	179	32	37	3	23%	1.3	14.2%	18.5%	-4.3%	2.0%	7.83	5.33	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	6	33	179	32	37	3	23%	1.3	14.2%	18.5%	-4.3%	2.0%	7.83	5.33	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	6	33	179	32	37	3	23%	1.3	17.9%	20.7%	-2.8%	1.7%	7.83	5.68	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	0	4	20	3	4	0	0%	0.6	15.0%	20.0%	-5.0%	0.0%	2.25	4.60	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	36	9	46	213	41	34	6	25%	1.3	16.0%	14.4%	1.6%	3.1%	4.27	5.27	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	36	9	46	213	41	34	6	25%	1.3	16.0%	14.4%	1.6%	3.1%	4.27	5.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	WSH	36	9	46	213	41	34	6	25%	1.3	19.2%	16.0%	3.3%	2.8%	4.27	5.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	WSH	21	0	22	93	19	14	3	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.6%	5.3%	2.9%	5.15	5.22	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	WSH	8	0	8	34	7	5	1	0%	1.0	19.9%	14.6%	5.3%	2.9%	5.15	5.22	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	12	54	10	9	1	0%	0.8	18.1%	16.6%	1.5%	1.8%	4.19	4.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		243	0	200	896	165	148	16	0%	0.8	18.1%	16.6%	1.5%	1.8%	4.19	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		99	34	179	824	168	119	22	34%	1.8	20.3%	14.4%	5.9%	2.7%	4.74	4.66	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	38	200	922	188	133	24	34%	1.8	20.3%	14.4%	5.9%	2.7%	4.74	4.66	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Penrod (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	19.9%	14.8%	2.6%	—	5.22	19.9%	5.3%	22	+0.10	—	—	—
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	73
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	72
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	70
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	70
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	68
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	68
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	68
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	67
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	67
Sam Freeman L 2016 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	16.3%	11.8%	1.8%	.345	4.02	22.1%	10.5%	169	-0.20	3.03	299	67
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	67
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	64
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	64
Jack Leathersich L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	21.7%	19.8%	1.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	101	63
Patrick McCoy L 2016 · 4.28 FIP	27	SU	4.28	15.4%	13.8%	1.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	113	63
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	63
Travis Bergen L 2022 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	19.3%	20.5%	1.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	143	63
Matt Purke L 2018 · 4.29 FIP	28	SU	4.29	16.1%	16.0%	0.9%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	226	63
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	62
Robby Scott L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	29	SU	5.59	23.9%	15.9%	4.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	285	61