Zach Penrod
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.0
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
ERA4.97
FIP4.97
xFIP7.31
SIERA6.58
K%21.7%
BB%14.8%
K-BB%6.9%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†5050
SL+1.4 (24%)
CH (30%)
FB-1.4 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 4 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 19.4% | 13.4% | 7.5% | 6.17 | 7.27 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 17.3% | 14.2% | 1.5% | 2.18 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 29 | 12 | 67 | 287 | 96 | 37 | 5 | 29.3% | 13.2% | 2.2% | 4.05 | 3.49 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 26 | 6 | 33 | 179 | 32 | 37 | 3 | 15.1% | 21.6% | 2.0% | 7.83 | 5.65 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 4 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | WSH | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 31 | 21 | 4 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 4.97 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 38 | 167 | 41 | 24 | 5 | 24.3% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 5.49 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 30 | 20 | 4 | 21.6% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 29 | 19 | 4 | 21.5% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 21.3% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.99 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 5.06 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 26 | 137 | 637 | 147 | 100 | 16 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 2.6% | 5.05 | 4.53 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 38 | 200 | 928 | 214 | 146 | 23 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 2.6% | 5.05 | 4.53 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Penrod (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.97 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 2.6% | — | 5.00 | 21.5% | 7.4% | 94 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Dan Runzler L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 81 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 80 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 78 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 78 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 77 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 77 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 76 |
| Adam Loewen L 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 76 |
| Braulio Lara L 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.80 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 3.9% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 118 | 76 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.65 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 133 | 73 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.16 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.36 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 66 | +1.20 | 4.02 | 269 | 73 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 73 |
| Ryan Och L 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.84 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 1.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.54 | 124 | 72 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 72 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.54 | 21.7% | 19.8% | 1.4% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 101 | 72 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 71 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.22 | 17.9% | 12.8% | 1.8% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 431 | 71 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 71 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.07 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.37 | 2.50 | 190 | 70 |
| Robby Scott L 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.63 | 23.9% | 15.9% | 4.6% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.40 | 285 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.