Sean Manaea
P
New York Mets
+0.8
WAR
Age 34
LHP
6'5" / 245 lbs
MLB
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.12
FIP4.09
xFIP4.85
SIERA4.57
K%26.0%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%18.6%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL5555
CMD5555
K†6060
FB Velo
p1089.5
Whiff%
p1019.5%
K%
p1517.1%
xwOBA vs
p140.355
SL (35%)
CH (6%)
SI (14%)
CT-0.5 (3%)
FB-0.6 (56%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 14 | 14 | 74 | 309 | 90 | 26 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 2.66 | 3.29 | +1.5 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 29 | 28 | 166 | 682 | 148 | 42 | 22 | 21.4% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.63 | 4.03 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 30 | 30 | 163 | 710 | 145 | 55 | 18 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 3.73 | +2.9 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 27 | 27 | 161 | 654 | 108 | 31 | 21 | 16.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.59 | 4.31 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 13 | 13 | 66 | 256 | 83 | 17 | 9 | 31.7% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.14 | 3.24 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 11 | 11 | 54 | 222 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 20.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 3.65 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 32 | 179 | 754 | 194 | 41 | 25 | 25.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.91 | 3.57 | +3.5 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 28 | 158 | 671 | 156 | 49 | 29 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 4.96 | 4.11 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 37 | 10 | 118 | 499 | 128 | 42 | 14 | 25.7% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 3.50 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 32 | 182 | 738 | 184 | 63 | 21 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 3.47 | 3.64 | +3.4 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | New York Mets | 21 | 17 | 79 | 351 | 98 | 17 | 15 | 28.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.79 | 3.90 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | New York Mets | 4 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 19.6% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 2.25 | 4.01 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 65 | 22 | 9 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 3.79 | 3.89 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 34 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 77 | 325 | 75 | 28 | 10 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 3.91 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 61 | 21 | 9 | 23.1% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 47 | 18 | 7 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.48 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 36 | 15 | 6 | 21.5% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 280 | 242 | 1412 | 5897 | 1367 | 398 | 192 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 4.00 | 3.79 | +24.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 34 | 200 | 835 | 194 | 56 | 27 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 4.00 | 3.79 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Manaea (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 24.9% | 7.4% | 3.4% | — | 4.57 | 22.4% | 14.0% | 152 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.57 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | .276 | 3.54 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -1.03 | 2.22 | 405 | 57 |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 56 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 55 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.97 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 181 | 53 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.89 | 16.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 424 | 53 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.84 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.8% | .269 | 2.55 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.29 | 2.19 | 195 | 53 |
| Blaine Hardy L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.10 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 417 | 52 |
| Colt Hynes L 2024 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 52 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.48 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 3.98 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.50 | 2.66 | 166 | 52 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 51 |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.17 | 23.7% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .301 | 5.84 | 11.7% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.67 | 2.63 | 198 | 51 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 51 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 154 | 50 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.45 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .283 | 4.23 | 25.7% | 18.0% | 79 | +0.78 | 3.45 | 512 | 49 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.75 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.42 | 17.2% | 10.5% | 49 | -0.33 | 2.97 | 117 | 49 |
| Manny Parra L 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.33 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 0.9% | .351 | 2.43 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 27 | -0.90 | 2.43 | 114 | 49 |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 1.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 101 | 49 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.68 | 20.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 549 | 49 |
| Luke Westphal L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.42 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .302 | 5.50 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.08 | 2.97 | 294 | 47 |
| Boone Logan L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.22 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 4.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 113 | 47 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.