Sean Manaea
P
New York Mets
Age 34
LHP
6'5" / 245 lbs
MLB
Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 89 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9099vR 108
ERA3.79
FIP3.83
K%23.7%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%16.5%
ROS IP89
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.6
Whiff%
p1921.0%
K%
p5222.5%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
SL (31%)
CH (4%)
SI (21%)
CT-0.5 (9%)
FB-0.6 (56%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 14 | 74 | 309 | 90 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 1.7% | 2.66 | 3.30 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 14 | 74 | 309 | 90 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 29.1% | 8.4% | 20.7% | 1.6% | 2.66 | 2.60 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 28 | 166 | 682 | 148 | 42 | 22 | 97% | 5.7 | 21.4% | 6.0% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 3.63 | 3.91 | +2.9 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 28 | 166 | 682 | 148 | 42 | 22 | 97% | 5.7 | 21.7% | 6.2% | 15.5% | 3.2% | 3.63 | 3.80 | +3.1 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 163 | 710 | 145 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 3.88 | +2.9 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 163 | 710 | 145 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.4% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 3.77 | +3.1 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 27 | 27 | 161 | 654 | 108 | 31 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 4.7% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 3.59 | 4.15 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 27 | 27 | 161 | 654 | 108 | 31 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 4.7% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 3.59 | 4.03 | +2.6 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 66 | 256 | 83 | 17 | 9 | 100% | 5.1 | 31.7% | 6.2% | 25.5% | 3.5% | 3.14 | 3.15 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 66 | 256 | 83 | 17 | 9 | 100% | 5.1 | 32.4% | 6.6% | 25.8% | 3.5% | 3.14 | 3.13 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 11 | 11 | 54 | 222 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.3% | 3.6% | 16.7% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 11 | 11 | 54 | 222 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.3% | 3.6% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 3.56 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 32 | 179 | 754 | 194 | 41 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.7% | 5.4% | 20.3% | 3.5% | 3.91 | 3.52 | +3.9 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 32 | 179 | 754 | 194 | 41 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.7% | 5.4% | 20.3% | 3.3% | 3.91 | 3.43 | +4.1 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 28 | 158 | 671 | 156 | 49 | 29 | 93% | 5.3 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 15.9% | 4.6% | 4.96 | 4.61 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 28 | 158 | 671 | 156 | 49 | 29 | 93% | 5.3 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 15.9% | 4.3% | 4.96 | 4.44 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 37 | 10 | 118 | 499 | 128 | 42 | 14 | 27% | 3.2 | 25.7% | 8.4% | 17.2% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 3.67 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 37 | 10 | 118 | 499 | 128 | 42 | 14 | 27% | 3.2 | 25.7% | 8.4% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 3.54 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 32 | 182 | 738 | 184 | 63 | 21 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 3.47 | 3.65 | +3.7 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 32 | 182 | 738 | 184 | 63 | 21 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 3.47 | 3.62 | +3.8 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 17 | 79 | 351 | 98 | 17 | 15 | 81% | 3.8 | 28.5% | 4.6% | 24.0% | 5.0% | 5.79 | 4.00 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 17 | 79 | 351 | 98 | 17 | 15 | 81% | 3.8 | 27.9% | 4.8% | 23.1% | 4.3% | 5.79 | 3.73 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | New York Mets | 20 | 6 | 75 | 329 | 74 | 24 | 10 | 30% | 3.8 | 22.5% | 7.3% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 3.79 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 67 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.1% | 7.8% | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.37 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 57 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 4.0% | 4.68 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 53 | 225 | 47 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 5.05 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 67 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.1% | 7.8% | 15.3% | 3.6% | 4.36 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 57 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 4.0% | 4.67 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 47 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 5.04 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 293 | 246 | 1503 | 6299 | 1429 | 431 | 212 | 84% | 5.1 | 22.7% | 6.8% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 4.18 | 3.90 | +26.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 33 | 200 | 838 | 190 | 57 | 28 | 84% | 5.1 | 22.7% | 6.8% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 4.18 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 296 | 248 | 1475 | 6175 | 1431 | 416 | 207 | 84% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 16.4% | 3.4% | 4.05 | 3.84 | +27.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 34 | 200 | 837 | 194 | 56 | 28 | 84% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 16.4% | 3.4% | 4.05 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Manaea (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.13 | 25.7% | 7.1% | 3.5% | — | 4.87 | 22.1% | 13.8% | 183 | +0.74 | — | — | — |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.05 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 426 | 52 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 50 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.74 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 391 | 50 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 49 |
| Shota Imanaga L 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.61 | 24.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 426 | 47 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 46 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 45 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .253 | 4.40 | 12.2% | 1.8% | 103 | -0.36 | 4.40 | 249 | 44 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.79 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 4.03 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.24 | 3.39 | 138 | 43 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.09 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 4.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 154 | 43 |
| James Russell L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.23 | 16.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 233 | 43 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 43 |
| Everett Teaford L 2023 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 43 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.85 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .298 | 4.45 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.60 | 3.85 | 237 | 42 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .284 | 4.20 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 256 | +0.52 | 3.68 | 405 | 42 |
| Eric Stults L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 41 |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 1.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 101 | 41 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.57 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.70 | 12.1% | 5.1% | 220 | +0.13 | 3.57 | 444 | 40 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2029 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 39 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.04 | 18.8% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 70 | -0.80 | 3.07 | 650 | 38 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 65 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 1.49 | 4.50 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |