Sean Manaea — OGILVIE

Sean Manaea P New York Mets

Age 34 LHP 6'5" / 245 lbs MLB Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION133 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 115

ERA3.97

FIP4.01

K%22.7%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%15.6%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p4621.6%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

SL (30%)

CH (4%)

SI (19%)

CT-0.5 (8%)

FB-0.6 (57%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.913 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

DEF 20%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$2M
2027	Ext	$25M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$22M
Totals		$27M		$0.8M	-$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	74	309	90	26	5	100%	5.3	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	1.7%	2.66	3.28	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	14	74	309	90	26	5	100%	5.3	29.1%	8.4%	20.7%	1.6%	2.66	2.60	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	28	166	682	148	42	22	97%	5.7	21.4%	6.0%	15.3%	3.5%	3.63	3.97	+1.8
2016	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	28	166	682	148	42	22	97%	5.7	21.7%	6.2%	15.5%	3.2%	3.63	3.80	+2.2
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	163	710	145	55	18	100%	5.4	20.2%	7.8%	12.4%	2.9%	4.32	3.95	+1.8
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	163	710	145	55	18	100%	5.4	20.4%	7.7%	12.7%	2.5%	4.32	3.77	+2.2
2018	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	27	27	161	654	108	31	21	100%	6.0	16.5%	4.7%	11.8%	3.5%	3.59	4.24	+1.2
2018	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	27	27	161	654	108	31	21	100%	6.0	16.5%	4.7%	11.8%	3.2%	3.59	4.03	+1.7
2019	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	66	256	83	17	9	100%	5.1	31.7%	6.2%	25.5%	3.8%	3.14	3.32	+1.3
2019	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	66	256	83	17	9	100%	5.1	32.4%	6.6%	25.8%	3.5%	3.14	3.13	+1.4
2020	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	11	11	54	222	45	8	7	100%	4.9	20.3%	3.6%	16.7%	3.5%	4.50	3.75	+0.7
2020	28	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	11	11	54	222	45	8	7	100%	4.9	20.3%	3.6%	16.7%	3.2%	4.50	3.56	+0.9
2021	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	32	32	179	754	194	41	25	100%	5.6	25.7%	5.4%	20.3%	3.6%	3.91	3.62	+2.8
2021	29	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	32	32	179	754	194	41	25	100%	5.6	25.7%	5.4%	20.3%	3.3%	3.91	3.43	+3.2
2022	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	30	28	158	671	156	49	29	93%	5.3	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	4.2%	4.96	4.38	+1.0
2022	30	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	30	28	158	671	156	49	29	93%	5.3	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	4.3%	4.96	4.44	+0.8
2023	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	37	10	118	499	128	42	14	27%	3.2	25.7%	8.4%	17.2%	3.0%	4.44	3.66	+1.2
2023	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	37	10	118	499	128	42	14	27%	3.2	25.7%	8.4%	17.2%	3.0%	4.44	3.66	+1.2
2023	31	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	37	10	118	499	128	42	14	27%	3.2	25.7%	8.4%	17.2%	2.8%	4.44	3.54	+1.4
2024	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	32	32	182	738	184	63	21	100%	5.7	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	2.9%	3.47	3.64	+2.8
2024	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	32	32	182	738	184	63	21	100%	5.7	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	2.9%	3.47	3.64	+2.8
2024	32	MLB RAW	New York Mets	32	32	182	738	184	63	21	100%	5.7	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	2.8%	3.47	3.62	+2.8
2025	33	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	17	79	351	98	17	15	81%	3.8	28.5%	4.6%	24.0%	5.0%	5.79	3.99	+0.9
2025	33	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	17	79	351	98	17	15	81%	3.8	28.5%	4.6%	24.0%	5.0%	5.79	3.99	+0.9
2025	33	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	17	79	351	98	17	15	81%	3.8	27.9%	4.8%	23.1%	4.3%	5.79	3.73	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			273	226	1378	5778	1310	384	192	83%	5.0	22.7%	6.6%	16.0%	3.3%	4.15	3.85	+17.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	New York Mets	30	16	133	582	126	41	21	53%	4.4	21.6%	7.0%	14.6%	3.6%	4.79	4.15	+1.2
YTD	34	MLB MLE	New York Mets	30	16	133	582	126	41	21	53%	4.4	21.6%	7.0%	14.6%	3.6%	4.79	4.15	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	MLB RAW	NYM	30	16	133	582	126	41	21	53%	4.4	21.6%	7.0%	14.6%	3.6%	4.79	4.14	+1.2
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	NYM	30	16	133	582	126	41	21	53%	4.4	21.6%	7.0%	14.6%	3.6%	4.79	4.14	+1.2
ROS	34	MLB MLE	NYM	2	2	13	56	13	4	2	100%	6.6	22.7%	7.1%	15.6%	3.5%	3.97	4.01	+0.1
ROS	34	MLB CTX	NYM	2	2	13	55	12	4	2	100%	6.5	22.7%	7.1%	15.6%	3.5%	3.96	4.00	+0.1
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	146	638	139	45	23	—	—	21.7%	7.0%	14.7%	3.6%	4.72	4.14	+1.3
FULL	34	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	146	619	139	45	23	—	—	22.4%	7.3%	15.1%	3.7%	4.72	4.16	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	69	291	64	22	11	100%	6.3	22.1%	7.6%	14.4%	3.9%	4.57	4.72	+0.1
2028	36	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	61	258	54	21	11	100%	6.1	21.0%	8.2%	12.8%	4.3%	4.88	5.09	-0.1
2027	35	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	69	291	64	22	11	100%	6.3	22.1%	7.6%	14.4%	3.9%	4.56	4.71	+0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	61	258	54	21	11	100%	6.1	21.0%	8.2%	12.8%	4.3%	4.87	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		296	249	1522	6383	1441	431	216	84%	5.1	22.6%	6.8%	15.8%	3.4%	4.20	3.91	+18.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	33	200	839	189	57	28	84%	5.1	22.6%	6.8%	15.8%	3.4%	4.20	3.91	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		306	258	1533	6428	1483	433	220	84%	5.0	23.1%	6.7%	16.3%	3.4%	4.09	3.89	+17.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	34	200	838	193	56	29	84%	5.0	23.1%	6.7%	16.3%	3.4%	4.09	3.89	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Manaea (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	25.7%	7.1%	3.5%	—	4.89	21.6%	13.7%	130	+0.76	—	—	—
Orlando Lara L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	426	52
Francisco Liriano L 2018 · 4.95 FIP	34	SP	4.95	18.8%	12.5%	3.4%	.281	4.34	20.9%	9.6%	70	-0.61	3.14	650	51
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	51
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	34	SP	3.93	20.4%	5.3%	3.4%	.294	4.70	16.0%	10.8%	79	+0.77	2.79	725	51
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	51
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	50
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	48
Chris Narveson L 2016 · 4.59 FIP	34	SP-	4.59	16.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.253	4.59	12.2%	1.8%	103	+0.00	4.59	249	47
J.A. Happ L 2017 · 3.67 FIP	34	SP	3.67	22.7%	7.2%	2.9%	.302	4.23	23.3%	16.2%	388	+0.56	3.37	1,053	47
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	47
Francisley Bueno L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	14.8%	7.1%	1.9%	.315	3.99	13.3%	6.6%	110	+0.22	3.48	138	45
Clayton Richard L 2018 · 4.35 FIP	34	SP	4.35	15.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.282	5.77	10.9%	1.9%	45	+1.42	3.56	574	45
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	45
James Russell L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	33	SP	4.28	16.2%	3.2%	3.9%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	2.66	233	44
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	44
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	44
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	43
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	43
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	43
Jon Lester L 2018 · 4.29 FIP	34	SP	4.29	19.6%	8.3%	3.3%	.286	4.66	18.0%	10.8%	374	+0.37	2.81	1,144	43

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	69	23.1%	7.6%	1.49	4.48
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43