Nick Lodolo
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 28
LHP
6'6" / 216 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 2.5 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.11
FIP4.01
K%20.7%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1921.0%
K%
p2117.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.373
CH+7.7 (22%)
SL+2.3 (29%)
SI (20%)
CU (29%)
FB-1.4 (50%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | 2 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 3.5 | 32.1% | 0.0% | 32.1% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 0.39 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | 2 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 3.5 | 32.1% | 0.0% | 32.1% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 0.53 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 51 | 201 | 78 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 31.8% | 5.7% | 26.1% | 0.8% | 2.31 | 1.56 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 51 | 201 | 78 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 38.8% | 5.5% | 33.3% | 1.5% | 2.31 | 1.44 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 116 | 497 | 149 | 42 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 29.7% | 8.8% | 20.9% | 2.8% | 3.57 | 3.25 | +2.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 116 | 497 | 149 | 42 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 30.0% | 8.5% | 21.5% | 2.6% | 3.57 | 3.07 | +3.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 10 | 42 | 197 | 60 | 14 | 10 | 100% | 4.2 | 28.3% | 5.4% | 22.9% | 5.7% | 5.62 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 10 | 42 | 197 | 60 | 14 | 10 | 100% | 4.2 | 30.5% | 7.1% | 23.4% | 5.1% | 5.62 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 123 | 526 | 132 | 40 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.7% | 7.5% | 17.2% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 3.33 | +3.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 123 | 526 | 132 | 40 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.1% | 7.6% | 17.5% | 2.7% | 4.83 | 3.41 | +2.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 29 | 28 | 157 | 642 | 156 | 30 | 22 | 97% | 5.4 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 19.6% | 3.2% | 3.33 | 3.42 | +3.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 29 | 28 | 157 | 642 | 156 | 30 | 22 | 97% | 5.4 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 19.6% | 3.4% | 3.33 | 3.51 | +3.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 15 | 15 | 75 | 323 | 67 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.01 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.16 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 139 | 597 | 124 | 49 | 18 | — | — | 20.7% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.32 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 127 | 538 | 124 | 49 | 18 | — | — | 23.0% | 9.1% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.14 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 118 | 43 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.51 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 107 | 42 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.72 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 118 | 499 | 96 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.95 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 118 | 43 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.56 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 107 | 42 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.77 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 96 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.88 | 5.01 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 164 | 163 | 917 | 3900 | 884 | 289 | 134 | 99% | 5.6 | 22.7% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 4.01 | +14.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 850 | 193 | 63 | 29 | 99% | 5.6 | 22.7% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 115 | 114 | 570 | 2414 | 620 | 167 | 71 | 99% | 5.0 | 25.7% | 6.9% | 18.8% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 3.42 | +13.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 40 | 200 | 848 | 218 | 59 | 25 | 99% | 5.0 | 25.7% | 6.9% | 18.8% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 3.42 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Lodolo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 24.5% | 5.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.72 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 380 | +0.88 | — | — | — |
| Scott Kazmir L 2029 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.5% | .268 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 148 | +0.74 | 3.72 | 395 | 61 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.58 | 18.7% | 8.1% | 3.7% | .314 | 4.79 | 18.3% | 9.8% | 102 | +0.21 | 2.82 | 845 | 60 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 58 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 58 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.69 | 17.7% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .305 | 4.19 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 429 | +0.50 | 3.36 | 1,167 | 58 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.53 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.42 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.11 | 3.06 | 240 | 57 |
| Chris Rusin L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.20 | 13.5% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .331 | 3.21 | 20.1% | 13.3% | 224 | -0.99 | 2.80 | 488 | 57 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.93 | 19.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | .288 | 4.32 | 19.3% | 13.2% | 290 | +0.39 | 3.68 | 549 | 56 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2029 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .297 | 5.58 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.52 | 4.06 | 162 | 56 |
| Scott Diamond L 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.73 | 12.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% | .330 | 3.36 | 12.7% | 7.9% | 166 | -0.37 | 3.36 | 316 | 55 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.17 | 14.7% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .295 | 5.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 121 | +1.12 | 4.17 | 368 | 55 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2029 · 3.07 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.07 | 26.5% | 8.9% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.65 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 394 | +1.58 | 3.07 | 650 | 55 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.75 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .283 | 3.84 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 76 | +0.09 | 3.75 | 324 | 55 |
| Brad Mills L 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.98 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .294 | 6.49 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.51 | 4.98 | 182 | 55 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.47 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.78 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.31 | 3.42 | 383 | 55 |
| John Danks L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.30 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 3.0% | .303 | 5.79 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 22 | +1.49 | 4.30 | 200 | 55 |
| John Gast L 2024 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.80 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 122 | 55 |
| Patrick Corbin L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.75 | 21.5% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .320 | 2.92 | 28.3% | 21.6% | 468 | -0.83 | 2.20 | 1,825 | 55 |
| Cole Irvin L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.14 | 17.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | .268 | 4.36 | 16.6% | 10.9% | 238 | +0.22 | 3.43 | 1,132 | 54 |
| Steven Matz L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.21 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 3.9% | .292 | 3.99 | 23.9% | 17.6% | 244 | -0.22 | 3.19 | 1,199 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 128 | 21.2% | 7.3% | 1.32 | 4.46 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Jerad Eickhoff ('19) | 4 | 109 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 1.43 | 4.12 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |