Nick Lodolo — OGILVIE

Nick Lodolo P Cincinnati Reds

Age 28 LHP 6'6" / 216 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION106 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 125

ERA4.19

FIP4.08

K%20.5%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p2518.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.379

CH+7.7 (22%)

SL+2.3 (29%)

SI (20%)

CU (29%)

FB-1.4 (50%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$0.3M
2027	Arb-3	$9M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.4M		$0.8M	-$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	2	2	7	28	9	0	0	100%	3.5	32.1%	0.0%	32.1%	0.0%	2.57	0.39	—
2019	21	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	2	2	7	28	9	0	0	100%	3.5	32.1%	0.0%	32.1%	0.0%	2.57	0.53	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	51	201	78	11	3	100%	3.9	31.8%	5.7%	26.1%	0.7%	2.31	1.54	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	51	201	78	11	3	100%	3.9	38.8%	5.5%	33.3%	1.5%	2.31	1.44	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	116	497	149	42	13	100%	5.0	29.7%	8.8%	20.9%	2.7%	3.57	3.21	+2.4
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	116	497	149	42	13	100%	5.0	30.0%	8.5%	21.5%	2.6%	3.57	3.07	+2.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	42	197	60	14	10	100%	4.2	28.3%	5.4%	22.9%	5.6%	5.62	4.46	+0.2
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	42	197	60	14	10	100%	4.2	28.3%	5.4%	22.9%	5.6%	5.62	4.46	+0.2
2023	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	10	42	197	60	14	10	100%	4.2	30.5%	7.1%	23.4%	5.1%	5.62	4.35	+0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	123	526	132	40	14	100%	5.3	24.7%	7.5%	17.2%	2.4%	4.83	3.30	+2.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	123	526	132	40	14	100%	5.3	24.7%	7.5%	17.2%	2.4%	4.83	3.30	+2.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	123	526	132	40	14	100%	5.3	25.1%	7.6%	17.5%	2.7%	4.83	3.41	+2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	29	28	157	642	156	30	22	97%	5.4	24.3%	4.7%	19.6%	3.2%	3.33	3.38	+2.9
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	29	28	157	642	156	30	22	97%	5.4	24.3%	4.7%	19.6%	3.2%	3.33	3.38	+2.9
2025	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	29	28	157	642	156	30	22	97%	5.4	24.3%	4.7%	19.6%	3.4%	3.33	3.51	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			94	93	499	2148	531	153	75	99%	5.3	24.7%	7.1%	17.6%	3.5%	4.25	3.84	+6.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	22	22	106	469	96	42	17	100%	4.8	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	3.9%	4.75	4.85	+0.1
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	22	22	106	469	96	42	17	100%	4.8	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	3.9%	4.75	4.85	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	CIN	1	1	3	8	4	0	0	100%	2.7	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	28	A+ RAW	CIN	1	1	5	17	7	0	0	100%	5.0	41.2%	0.0%	41.2%	0.0%	0.00	-0.38	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	CIN	2	2	9	38	10	4	0	100%	4.3	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	0.0%	5.19	2.21	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	CIN	18	18	90	406	75	38	17	100%	5.0	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	4.2%	5.12	5.02	-0.1
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	CIN	18	18	90	406	75	38	17	100%	5.0	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	4.2%	5.12	5.02	-0.1
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CIN	2	2	13	54	11	4	2	100%	6.4	20.5%	7.5%	13.0%	3.2%	4.19	4.08	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	13	55	11	4	2	100%	6.5	20.5%	7.5%	13.0%	3.5%	4.33	4.22	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	119	523	107	46	19	—	—	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.6%	4.69	4.77	+0.2
FULL	28	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	102	433	107	46	19	—	—	24.8%	10.6%	14.1%	4.4%	5.46	4.75	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	135	570	116	45	21	100%	6.1	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	3.7%	4.77	4.79	+0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	21	21	127	536	106	44	21	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	3.9%	4.91	5.00	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	CIN	20	20	118	499	95	42	21	100%	5.9	19.0%	8.5%	10.5%	4.1%	5.10	5.23	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	CIN	22	22	135	570	116	45	23	100%	6.1	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	4.0%	4.93	4.95	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	21	21	127	536	106	44	23	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	4.2%	5.08	5.17	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	CIN	20	20	118	498	95	42	22	100%	5.9	19.0%	8.5%	10.5%	4.5%	5.28	5.41	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		160	159	892	3807	859	287	145	99%	5.6	22.6%	7.6%	15.0%	3.8%	4.61	4.24	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	853	193	64	32	99%	5.6	22.6%	7.6%	15.0%	3.8%	4.61	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		122	121	601	2560	649	180	77	99%	4.9	25.4%	7.0%	18.3%	3.0%	4.00	3.51	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	852	216	60	26	99%	4.9	25.4%	7.0%	18.3%	3.0%	4.00	3.51	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Lodolo (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.81	24.5%	5.5%	3.1%	—	5.00	19.7%	11.6%	380	+1.19	—	—	—
Matt Moore L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SP	4.57	18.7%	8.1%	3.7%	.314	4.76	18.3%	9.8%	102	+0.19	2.80	861	76
Steven Matz L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP	4.21	22.1%	6.5%	3.9%	.292	4.03	23.9%	17.6%	244	-0.18	3.19	1,220	67
Patrick Corbin L 2017 · 3.80 FIP	28	SP	3.80	21.5%	6.4%	3.1%	.320	2.97	28.3%	21.6%	468	-0.83	2.30	1,829	67
Cole Irvin L 2022 · 4.24 FIP	28	SP	4.24	17.3%	4.5%	3.7%	.268	4.41	16.5%	11.0%	238	+0.17	3.37	1,174	66
Tyler Anderson L 2018 · 4.20 FIP	28	SP	4.20	22.3%	7.9%	3.6%	.278	4.42	18.5%	11.9%	247	+0.22	3.10	1,288	65
Jose Quintana L 2017 · 3.46 FIP	28	SP	3.46	26.2%	7.2%	3.0%	.292	4.02	20.9%	13.4%	345	+0.56	2.95	1,596	64
Danny Duffy L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	28	SP	3.42	21.3%	6.7%	2.3%	.306	4.64	21.0%	11.8%	342	+1.22	3.29	915	61
Scott Kazmir L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SP	3.84	20.3%	7.7%	2.7%	.268	4.30	21.6%	12.9%	148	+0.46	3.84	395	61
Martín Pérez L 2019 · 4.39 FIP	28	SP	4.39	18.3%	9.0%	3.1%	.314	3.78	19.6%	11.4%	372	-0.61	3.11	1,570	59
Tyler Skaggs L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	23.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	372	58
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	58
Drew Pomeranz L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	28	SP	3.74	23.5%	9.3%	2.6%	.308	4.62	25.6%	14.1%	216	+0.88	2.21	751	58
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	58
Dallas Keuchel L 2016 · 3.82 FIP	28	SP	3.82	20.5%	6.7%	2.9%	.302	3.83	19.0%	11.7%	463	+0.01	2.86	1,402	57
Chris Rusin L 2015 · 4.40 FIP	28	SP	4.40	13.5%	6.2%	3.0%	.331	3.36	20.1%	13.3%	224	-1.04	2.89	488	57
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2021 · 3.25 FIP	28	SP	3.25	27.4%	7.0%	2.9%	.361	3.79	22.1%	14.2%	309	+0.54	3.25	1,579	57
Wade Miley L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	28	SP	3.73	17.7%	7.7%	2.1%	.305	4.15	18.7%	9.8%	429	+0.42	3.36	1,167	57
Madison Bumgarner L 2018 · 3.86 FIP	28	SP	3.86	19.8%	7.3%	2.8%	.268	4.30	21.8%	16.5%	396	+0.44	2.80	1,257	57
Cade Gibson L 2023 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	15.0%	8.5%	3.0%	.306	3.43	18.9%	9.4%	222	-1.14	3.13	340	56
Jo-Jo Reyes L 2015 · 3.51 FIP	30	SP	3.51	14.9%	6.4%	1.6%	.326	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	90	-0.20	3.01	240	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	130	21.0%	7.4%	1.43	4.65
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20