Nick Lodolo
P
Daytona Tortugas
+2.3
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'6" / 216 lbs
A
peak 2.3 · 2026
ERA3.98
FIP3.80
xFIP3.66
SIERA3.57
K%24.4%
BB%5.9%
K-BB%18.5%
IP147
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.3peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL6060
CMD6060
K†6060
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p6427.5%
K%
p6124.3%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
CH+7.7 (22%)
SL+2.3 (29%)
SI (20%)
CU (29%)
FB-1.4 (50%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | 2 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.57 | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 13 | 13 | 51 | 201 | 78 | 11 | 3 | 31.8% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 2.31 | 1.54 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 23 | 23 | 116 | 497 | 149 | 42 | 13 | 29.7% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 3.57 | 3.30 | +2.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 10 | 10 | 42 | 197 | 60 | 14 | 10 | 28.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.62 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 23 | 23 | 123 | 526 | 132 | 40 | 14 | 24.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | 4.83 | 3.22 | +2.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 29 | 28 | 157 | 642 | 156 | 30 | 22 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.33 | 3.37 | +3.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 25 | 137 | 578 | 141 | 34 | 18 | 24.3% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 3.84 | +2.3 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 140 | 586 | 145 | 34 | 18 | 24.7% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 3.77 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 124 | 526 | 125 | 31 | 16 | 23.8% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 3.92 | 3.91 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 112 | 474 | 110 | 29 | 15 | 23.3% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 4.00 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 97 | 26 | 14 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 4.05 | 4.11 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 84 | 24 | 13 | 22.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 4.22 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 79 | 19 | 11 | 23.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 4.11 | 4.08 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 68 | 18 | 10 | 22.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 4.18 | 4.22 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 57 | 16 | 9 | 22.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.29 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 48 | 14 | 8 | 21.2% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 4.44 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 40 | 13 | 8 | 20.4% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 4.60 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 101 | 100 | 498 | 2099 | 567 | 136 | 58 | 27.0% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.17 | +12.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 40 | 200 | 844 | 228 | 55 | 23 | 27.0% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.17 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Lodolo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 24.3% | 5.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.00 | 23.3% | 17.3% | 338 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Shota Imanaga L 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.65 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | .262 | 4.65 | 22.9% | 18.1% | 167 | +1.00 | 2.02 | 340 | 59 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.21 | 20.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | .289 | 4.32 | 20.8% | 16.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 4.10 | 424 | 58 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.70 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .268 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 148 | +0.76 | 3.70 | 395 | 58 |
| Cole Hamels L 2029 · 3.22 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.22 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .288 | 4.09 | 21.7% | 13.2% | 539 | +0.87 | 3.22 | 893 | 58 |
| Jose Quintana L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.34 | 26.2% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.07 | 20.9% | 13.4% | 345 | +0.73 | 2.87 | 1,555 | 57 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2029 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.00 | 26.5% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.67 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 394 | +1.67 | 3.00 | 650 | 57 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.87 | 19.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | .288 | 4.35 | 19.3% | 13.2% | 290 | +0.48 | 3.60 | 549 | 56 |
| Jon Lester L 2029 · 2.69 FIP | 31 | SP | 2.69 | 25.0% | 5.7% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.87 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 565 | +1.18 | 2.69 | 1,144 | 54 |
| Patrick Corbin L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.75 | 21.5% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .320 | 2.89 | 28.3% | 21.6% | 468 | -0.86 | 2.29 | 1,749 | 54 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.85 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .297 | 5.60 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.75 | 3.85 | 162 | 53 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .314 | 4.66 | 18.3% | 9.8% | 102 | -0.17 | 2.83 | 845 | 53 |
| Steven Matz L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.09 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .292 | 3.95 | 23.9% | 17.6% | 244 | -0.14 | 3.11 | 1,167 | 53 |
| Cole Irvin L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.21 | 17.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.40 | 16.6% | 10.9% | 238 | +0.19 | 3.36 | 1,067 | 53 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.78 | 17.7% | 7.7% | 2.2% | .305 | 4.22 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 429 | +0.44 | 3.34 | 1,167 | 53 |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.36 | 21.3% | 6.7% | 2.2% | .306 | 4.64 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 342 | +1.28 | 3.29 | 915 | 52 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.24 | 27.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | .361 | 3.78 | 22.1% | 14.2% | 309 | +0.54 | 3.24 | 1,429 | 51 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2029 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 20.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% | .289 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 13.0% | 351 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 609 | 51 |
| Matthew Boyd L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.22 | 30.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | .301 | 4.30 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 152 | +0.08 | 2.22 | 1,318 | 51 |
| Tyler Anderson L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.32 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.8% | .278 | 4.38 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 247 | +0.06 | 3.11 | 1,288 | 51 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.96 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.82 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 76 | -0.14 | 3.82 | 324 | 50 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.