Thomas White — OGILVIE

Thomas White P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 21 LHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.4 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 105

ERA3.79

FIP3.79

K%30.7%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%17.6%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$48M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6565

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†7070

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$15M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$9M	+2.8	$19M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$16M	+3.1	$21M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$24M	+3.3	$22M	+$7M
Totals		$52M		$85M	+$52M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	24	7	6	0	67%	1.4	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	0.0%	6.23	3.80	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	24	7	6	0	67%	1.4	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	0.0%	6.23	3.80	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	2	4	24	7	6	0	67%	1.4	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	0.0%	6.23	4.02	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	411	120	38	6	100%	4.6	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.0%	2.81	3.66	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	411	120	38	6	100%	4.6	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.0%	2.81	3.66	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	96	411	120	38	6	100%	4.6	29.2%	9.2%	20.0%	1.5%	2.81	2.60	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	90	376	145	51	2	100%	4.3	30.2%	13.7%	16.6%	0.6%	2.31	2.64	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	90	376	145	51	2	100%	4.3	30.2%	13.7%	16.6%	0.6%	2.31	2.64	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	90	376	145	51	2	100%	4.3	38.6%	13.6%	25.0%	0.5%	2.31	1.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	7	7	25	107	35	15	4	100%	3.5	25.6%	10.0%	15.6%	4.1%	4.01	4.44	—
YTD	21	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	7	7	25	107	35	15	4	100%	3.5	25.6%	10.0%	15.6%	4.1%	4.01	4.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	MIA	2	2	6	26	10	6	1	100%	3.0	38.5%	23.1%	15.4%	3.8%	3.00	4.89	—
2026	21	AAA RAW	MIA	5	5	19	81	25	9	3	100%	3.7	30.9%	11.1%	19.8%	3.7%	4.34	3.93	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	8	32	10	4	1	100%	7.6	30.7%	13.1%	17.6%	2.3%	3.79	3.79	+0.1
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	32	139	45	19	5	—	—	32.2%	13.8%	18.4%	3.4%	3.96	4.29	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	130	551	170	64	13	100%	5.0	30.8%	11.6%	19.2%	2.3%	3.70	3.60	+2.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	169	715	221	76	16	100%	5.3	30.9%	10.7%	20.3%	2.3%	3.59	3.48	+2.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	33	33	185	781	243	79	18	100%	5.6	31.1%	10.1%	21.0%	2.3%	3.49	3.40	+3.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	185	781	244	77	18	100%	5.8	31.3%	9.8%	21.4%	2.3%	3.41	3.35	+3.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	185	781	246	76	18	100%	6.0	31.5%	9.8%	21.7%	2.3%	3.36	3.33	+3.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	180	760	239	75	18	100%	6.0	31.5%	9.9%	21.6%	2.4%	3.36	3.36	+3.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	175	737	231	74	18	100%	6.0	31.4%	10.0%	21.3%	2.5%	3.41	3.45	+3.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	167	704	219	72	18	100%	6.0	31.1%	10.2%	20.9%	2.6%	3.51	3.58	+2.7
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	157	662	204	70	19	100%	6.0	30.8%	10.5%	20.2%	2.8%	3.66	3.76	+2.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	146	617	187	67	19	100%	6.1	30.4%	10.9%	19.5%	3.0%	3.84	3.96	+1.6
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	135	570	171	64	19	100%	5.9	29.9%	11.3%	18.6%	3.3%	4.05	4.18	+1.1
2038	33	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	124	524	154	61	19	100%	5.9	29.4%	11.7%	17.7%	3.6%	4.28	4.43	+0.7
2039	34	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	113	476	137	58	18	100%	5.9	28.9%	12.2%	16.6%	3.9%	4.54	4.71	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	70	296	91	34	6	100%	5.0	30.8%	11.6%	19.2%	2.2%	3.64	3.54	+1.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	127	536	166	57	12	100%	5.3	30.9%	10.7%	20.3%	2.2%	3.53	3.42	+2.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	156	659	205	67	14	100%	5.6	31.1%	10.1%	21.0%	2.2%	3.43	3.34	+2.8
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	165	697	218	68	15	100%	5.9	31.3%	9.8%	21.4%	2.2%	3.35	3.29	+3.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	170	718	226	70	16	100%	6.1	31.5%	9.8%	21.7%	2.2%	3.30	3.27	+3.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	167	705	222	70	16	100%	6.0	31.5%	9.9%	21.6%	2.2%	3.30	3.30	+3.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	164	692	217	69	16	100%	6.1	31.4%	10.0%	21.3%	2.3%	3.34	3.38	+2.9
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	158	667	208	68	17	100%	6.1	31.1%	10.2%	20.9%	2.5%	3.44	3.51	+2.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	25	25	149	629	194	66	17	100%	6.0	30.8%	10.5%	20.2%	2.7%	3.58	3.68	+2.0
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	139	587	178	64	17	100%	6.0	30.4%	10.9%	19.5%	2.9%	3.76	3.88	+1.6
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	128	540	162	61	17	100%	6.1	29.9%	11.3%	18.6%	3.1%	3.96	4.09	+1.1
2038	33	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	118	498	147	58	17	100%	5.9	29.4%	11.7%	17.7%	3.4%	4.18	4.33	+0.6
2039	34	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	102	431	124	53	16	100%	6.0	28.9%	12.2%	16.6%	3.7%	4.43	4.60	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		310	310	1814	7658	2358	807	195	100%	5.9	30.8%	10.5%	20.2%	2.5%	3.59	3.23	+37.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	260	89	22	100%	5.9	30.8%	10.5%	20.2%	2.5%	3.59	3.23	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		52	51	215	918	239	112	15	98%	4.1	26.1%	12.2%	13.8%	1.6%	2.81	3.34	+30.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	855	223	105	14	98%	4.1	26.1%	12.2%	13.8%	1.6%	2.81	3.34	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas White (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.79	30.7%	13.1%	2.3%	—	3.48	31.0%	20.3%	485	-0.31	—	—	—
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	82
Steve Hajjar L 2022 · 3.67 FIP	21	SP	3.67	30.2%	14.9%	2.2%	.282	6.17	16.4%	-7.8%	97	+2.50	3.67	141	82
Jake Eder L 2021 · 2.73 FIP	22	SP	2.73	27.9%	10.3%	1.2%	.253	4.98	20.6%	7.7%	156	+2.25	2.73	335	79
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	79
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	78
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.92	23.6%	15.7%	468	+0.56	3.36	740	78
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	77
Kyle Harrison L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	21	SP	4.69	27.6%	12.3%	4.3%	.280	3.91	24.1%	16.2%	347	-0.78	3.12	659	77
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	76
Reid Detmers L 2021 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP	4.17	29.9%	9.1%	4.5%	.335	4.09	25.1%	16.5%	443	-0.08	2.77	749	75
Carson Whisenhunt L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	27.4%	11.1%	1.7%	.270	4.28	19.7%	10.4%	353	+1.17	3.11	411	74
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.6%	143	+2.57	3.16	289	74
Adam Macko L 2022 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP	3.84	27.7%	13.8%	2.4%	.349	3.81	21.1%	10.4%	249	-0.03	3.40	403	73
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.2%	288	+0.97	3.62	439	73
Carson Palmquist L 2023 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	26.7%	10.8%	3.9%	.324	4.46	21.1%	8.9%	288	+0.09	3.84	380	72
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	72
Mitchell Parker L 2021 · 4.08 FIP	21	SP	4.08	24.0%	9.8%	3.2%	.354	3.95	21.3%	9.9%	375	-0.13	3.73	694	72
Mason Montgomery L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	22	SP	3.56	26.8%	9.7%	2.7%	.284	4.76	23.2%	12.5%	258	+1.20	2.14	444	72
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	72
Blake Snell L 2015 · 3.19 FIP	22	SP	3.19	25.9%	11.2%	1.6%	.258	3.30	27.3%	17.1%	506	+0.11	1.62	1,451	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.7	153	30.8%	10.7%	1.02	3.66
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67