Thomas White — OGILVIE

Thomas White P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 22 LHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.7 · 2030

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 90 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 109

ERA4.01

FIP4.01

K%30.3%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%17.9%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$51M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6565

CTRL4550

CMD3545

K†7070

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$13M	+$13M
2031	Arb-1	$8M	+2.4	$14M	+$9M
2032	Arb-2	$13M	+2.3	$13M	+$5M
2033	Arb-3	$17M	+2.1	$11M	+$1M
Totals		$41M		$65M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	24	7	6	0	67%	1.4	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	0.0%	6.23	3.80	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	2	4	24	7	6	0	67%	1.4	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	0.0%	6.23	4.02	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	411	120	38	6	100%	4.6	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.0%	2.81	3.66	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	411	120	38	6	100%	4.6	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.0%	2.81	3.66	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	96	411	120	38	6	100%	4.6	29.2%	9.2%	20.0%	1.5%	2.81	2.60	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	90	376	145	51	2	100%	4.3	30.2%	13.7%	16.6%	0.6%	2.31	2.64	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	90	376	145	51	2	100%	4.3	30.2%	13.7%	16.6%	0.6%	2.31	2.64	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	90	376	145	51	2	100%	4.3	38.6%	13.6%	25.0%	0.5%	2.31	1.86	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	25	107	35	15	4	100%	3.5	26.5%	10.0%	16.5%	4.1%	4.01	4.36	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	25	107	35	15	4	100%	3.5	26.5%	10.0%	16.5%	4.1%	4.01	4.36	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	25	107	35	15	4	100%	3.5	32.7%	14.0%	18.7%	3.7%	4.01	4.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIA	18	18	90	380	115	47	11	100%	5.0	30.3%	12.5%	17.9%	2.8%	4.01	4.01	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	127	538	163	60	15	100%	5.3	30.3%	11.2%	19.1%	2.7%	3.92	3.85	+1.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	157	661	200	69	18	100%	5.6	30.3%	10.5%	19.8%	2.7%	3.83	3.75	+2.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	177	746	226	75	20	100%	5.9	30.3%	10.0%	20.2%	2.7%	3.76	3.70	+2.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	185	781	237	78	21	100%	6.0	30.3%	9.9%	20.3%	2.7%	3.72	3.69	+2.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	180	760	230	76	21	100%	6.0	30.3%	10.0%	20.2%	2.8%	3.72	3.72	+2.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	175	737	222	75	21	100%	6.0	30.1%	10.2%	20.0%	2.9%	3.77	3.81	+2.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	167	704	211	73	21	100%	6.0	29.9%	10.4%	19.5%	3.0%	3.87	3.94	+1.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	157	662	196	71	21	100%	6.0	29.6%	10.7%	18.9%	3.2%	4.02	4.12	+1.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	146	617	180	68	21	100%	6.1	29.2%	11.1%	18.1%	3.5%	4.20	4.32	+1.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	135	570	164	65	21	100%	5.9	28.7%	11.5%	17.3%	3.7%	4.41	4.54	+0.6
2038	33	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	124	524	148	62	21	100%	5.9	28.2%	11.9%	16.3%	4.0%	4.64	4.79	+0.2
2039	34	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	113	476	132	59	20	100%	5.9	27.7%	12.4%	15.3%	4.3%	4.90	5.07	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	69	291	88	33	8	100%	5.3	30.3%	11.2%	19.1%	2.6%	3.84	3.77	+0.9
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	113	477	144	50	12	100%	5.7	30.3%	10.5%	19.8%	2.6%	3.75	3.67	+1.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	25	25	146	616	187	62	16	100%	5.8	30.3%	10.0%	20.2%	2.6%	3.69	3.63	+2.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	163	688	208	68	18	100%	6.0	30.3%	9.9%	20.3%	2.6%	3.64	3.61	+2.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	163	688	208	69	18	100%	6.0	30.3%	10.0%	20.2%	2.6%	3.64	3.64	+2.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	161	680	205	69	19	100%	6.0	30.1%	10.2%	20.0%	2.7%	3.69	3.73	+2.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	155	654	196	68	19	100%	6.0	29.9%	10.4%	19.5%	2.9%	3.79	3.86	+1.8
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	147	621	183	66	19	100%	6.1	29.6%	10.7%	18.9%	3.1%	3.93	4.03	+1.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	139	587	171	65	19	100%	6.0	29.2%	11.1%	18.1%	3.3%	4.10	4.22	+0.9
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	128	540	155	62	19	100%	6.1	28.7%	11.5%	17.3%	3.5%	4.31	4.44	+0.5
2038	33	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	118	498	141	59	19	100%	5.9	28.2%	11.9%	16.3%	3.8%	4.53	4.68	+0.1
2039	34	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	102	431	119	53	18	100%	6.0	27.7%	12.4%	15.3%	4.1%	4.78	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		271	271	1605	6778	2008	726	204	100%	5.9	29.6%	10.7%	18.9%	3.0%	3.94	3.60	+25.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	250	90	25	100%	5.9	29.6%	10.7%	18.9%	3.0%	3.94	3.60	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		52	51	215	918	240	112	15	98%	4.1	26.2%	12.2%	13.9%	1.6%	2.81	3.33	+18.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	855	224	105	14	98%	4.1	26.2%	12.2%	13.9%	1.6%	2.81	3.33	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas White (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.01	30.3%	12.5%	2.8%	—	3.76	30.3%	19.8%	461	-0.25	—	—	—
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	85
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	82
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	81
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.91	23.7%	15.8%	468	+0.55	3.36	752	79
Reid Detmers L 2021 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP	4.17	29.9%	9.1%	4.5%	.335	4.08	25.3%	16.7%	443	-0.09	2.77	766	79
Tony Cingrani L 2013 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	28.6%	10.0%	3.1%	.238	4.26	21.8%	9.1%	184	+0.61	1.68	354	78
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	78
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	78
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.3%	288	+0.97	3.62	454	76
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.7%	143	+2.57	3.16	292	76
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.12	20.9%	13.1%	278	+0.29	2.92	472	75
Carson Palmquist L 2023 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	26.7%	10.8%	3.9%	.324	4.43	21.4%	9.3%	288	+0.06	3.80	380	75
Matt Wilkinson L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	21	SP	3.23	28.5%	9.2%	2.5%	.252	4.47	20.8%	11.3%	219	+1.24	3.23	337	75
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	75
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	75
Carson Whisenhunt L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	27.4%	11.1%	1.7%	.270	4.22	20.3%	11.0%	353	+1.11	3.11	411	75
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	74
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	74
Mason Montgomery L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	22	SP	3.56	26.8%	9.7%	2.7%	.284	4.74	23.5%	12.7%	258	+1.18	2.28	451	74
Cade Povich L 2022 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	23.9%	9.2%	3.3%	.293	4.03	23.6%	14.1%	414	-0.05	3.80	626	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.7	149	29.7%	10.8%	1.21	4.01
Trevor Bauer ('21)	6.5	162	25.9%	9.0%	1.11	3.79
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Rich Harden ('11)	4.6	103	24.2%	10.7%	1.02	3.76
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74