Thomas White

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 22 LHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2031

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP55OGV rank#20ETA2028MLB%20%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	21	21	96	2.81	2.60	29.2%	9.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.66
2025	20	MIX3 levels	21	21	90	2.31	1.86	38.6%	13.6%	—	K 30.2% · BB 13.7% · FIP 2.64
2026	21	MIX2 levels	7	7	25	4.01	4.19	32.7%	14.0%	—	K 26.5% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.36
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIA	4	4	18	4.02	4.02	30.4%	12.5%	0.3
2028PROJ65% MLB	23	MLBMIA	14	14	73	3.85	3.77	30.4%	11.3%	1.4
2029PROJ81% MLB	24	MLBMIA	19	19	104	3.77	3.68	30.3%	10.5%	2.1

Next 3 projected WAR 3.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$6M2032Arb-2$10M2033Arb-3$13M

Career WAR8.6 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 28, comp-based) · star 9% · didn't stick 41%

CompsKen Waldichuk (age 23) · Anthony Veneziano (age 23) · Brent Killam (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 110

ERA4.02

FIP4.02

K%30.4%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%17.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$81M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$14M	+$14M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.5	$16M	+$15M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+2.7	$17M	+$13M
2032	Arb-2	$10M	+2.6	$15M	+$9M
2033	Arb-3	$13M	+2.5	$13M	+$6M
Totals		$32M		$85M	+$66M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	24	7	6	0	67%	1.4	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	0.0%	6.23	3.80	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	2	4	24	7	6	0	67%	1.4	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	0.0%	6.23	4.02	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	411	120	38	6	100%	4.6	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.0%	2.81	3.66	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	411	120	38	6	100%	4.6	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.0%	2.81	3.66	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	96	411	120	38	6	100%	4.6	29.2%	9.2%	20.0%	1.5%	2.81	2.60	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	90	376	145	51	2	100%	4.3	30.2%	13.7%	16.6%	0.6%	2.31	2.64	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	90	376	145	51	2	100%	4.3	30.2%	13.7%	16.6%	0.6%	2.31	2.64	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	90	376	145	51	2	100%	4.3	38.6%	13.6%	25.0%	0.5%	2.31	1.86	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	25	107	35	15	4	100%	3.5	26.5%	10.0%	16.5%	4.1%	4.01	4.36	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	25	107	35	15	4	100%	3.5	26.5%	10.0%	16.5%	4.1%	4.01	4.36	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	25	107	35	15	4	100%	3.5	32.7%	14.0%	18.7%	3.7%	4.01	4.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIA	4	4	18	76	23	10	2	100%	4.5	30.4%	12.5%	17.9%	2.8%	4.02	4.02	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	113	476	144	54	13	100%	5.4	30.4%	11.3%	19.1%	2.7%	3.93	3.85	+2.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	129	545	165	57	15	100%	5.6	30.3%	10.5%	19.8%	2.7%	3.84	3.75	+2.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	140	590	179	60	16	100%	5.8	30.3%	10.1%	20.2%	2.7%	3.76	3.70	+2.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	146	614	186	61	17	100%	6.1	30.3%	10.0%	20.3%	2.7%	3.72	3.69	+3.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	141	597	181	60	17	100%	5.9	30.3%	10.1%	20.2%	2.8%	3.72	3.73	+2.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	136	574	173	59	17	100%	5.9	30.2%	10.2%	20.0%	2.9%	3.77	3.81	+2.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	128	540	162	56	16	100%	6.1	30.0%	10.5%	19.5%	3.0%	3.87	3.94	+2.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	117	495	147	53	16	100%	5.9	29.6%	10.8%	18.8%	3.2%	4.02	4.12	+1.8
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	105	445	130	49	15	100%	5.8	29.2%	11.1%	18.1%	3.5%	4.20	4.32	+1.3
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	93	392	113	45	15	100%	6.2	28.8%	11.5%	17.3%	3.7%	4.41	4.55	+0.9
2038	33	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	80	339	96	40	13	100%	6.2	28.3%	12.0%	16.3%	4.0%	4.64	4.80	+0.6
2039	34	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	69	290	80	36	12	100%	6.2	27.7%	12.5%	15.3%	4.3%	4.90	5.07	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	73	308	94	35	8	100%	5.2	30.4%	11.3%	19.1%	2.6%	3.85	3.77	+1.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	104	439	133	46	11	100%	5.5	30.3%	10.5%	19.8%	2.6%	3.77	3.68	+2.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	123	519	157	52	13	100%	5.9	30.3%	10.1%	20.2%	2.6%	3.69	3.63	+2.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	133	562	170	56	15	100%	6.0	30.3%	10.0%	20.3%	2.6%	3.64	3.61	+2.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	132	557	169	56	15	100%	6.0	30.3%	10.1%	20.2%	2.6%	3.64	3.65	+2.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	129	545	164	56	15	100%	5.9	30.2%	10.2%	20.0%	2.7%	3.69	3.73	+2.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	122	515	154	54	15	100%	6.1	30.0%	10.5%	19.5%	2.9%	3.79	3.86	+2.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	111	469	139	50	14	100%	6.2	29.6%	10.8%	18.8%	3.1%	3.93	4.03	+1.7
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	100	422	123	47	14	100%	5.9	29.2%	11.1%	18.1%	3.3%	4.11	4.23	+1.3
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	88	372	107	43	13	100%	5.9	28.8%	11.5%	17.3%	3.5%	4.31	4.45	+0.9
2038	33	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	76	321	91	38	12	100%	5.8	28.3%	12.0%	16.3%	3.8%	4.53	4.69	+0.5
2039	34	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	62	262	73	33	11	100%	6.2	27.7%	12.5%	15.3%	4.1%	4.78	4.95	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		212	212	1254	5293	1575	567	156	100%	5.9	29.8%	10.7%	19.1%	3.0%	3.91	3.56	+28.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	251	90	25	100%	5.9	29.8%	10.7%	19.1%	3.0%	3.91	3.56	+4.5
Career	—	MLE		52	51	215	918	240	112	15	98%	4.1	26.2%	12.2%	13.9%	1.6%	2.81	3.33	+22.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	855	224	105	14	98%	4.1	26.2%	12.2%	13.9%	1.6%	2.81	3.33	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 19 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.36 (+0.43)K% 30.9% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.86%	—	×0.860	26.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.07%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 6 IPFIP 4.89 → 6.89 (+2.00)K% 38.5% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.46%	—	×0.740	28.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.08%	—	×1.180	27.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.89 → 6.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 45 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.79 (+0.84)K% 39.3% → 31.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.27%	—	×0.810	31.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.57%	—	×1.100	13.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.05%	÷1.103	×1.200	1.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 35 IPFIP 1.50 → 2.43 (+0.93)K% 36.6% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.55%	—	×0.770	28.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.72%	—	×1.150	13.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.006	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 1.50 → 2.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 9 IPFIP 2.68 → 2.86 (+0.19)K% 42.5% → 36.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.50%	—	×0.860	36.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×0.900	22.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.903	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.68 → 2.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 62 IPFIP 2.92 → 4.09 (+1.18)K% 29.9% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.92%	—	×0.770	23.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.27%	—	×1.150	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.36%	÷0.935	×1.250	3.16%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 34 IPFIP 2.10 → 2.97 (+0.86)K% 28.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.03%	—	×0.740	20.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.83%	—	×1.180	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.888	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.10 → 2.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas White (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	3.76	30.3%	19.7%	381	-0.26	—	—	—
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	85
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	82
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	81
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.91	23.7%	15.8%	468	+0.55	3.36	752	79
Reid Detmers L 2021 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP	4.17	29.9%	9.1%	4.5%	.335	4.08	25.3%	16.7%	443	-0.09	2.77	766	79
Tony Cingrani L 2013 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	28.6%	10.0%	3.1%	.238	4.26	21.8%	9.1%	184	+0.61	1.68	354	78
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	78
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	78
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.3%	288	+0.97	3.62	454	76
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.7%	143	+2.57	3.16	292	76
Carson Palmquist L 2023 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	26.7%	10.8%	3.9%	.324	4.43	21.4%	9.3%	288	+0.06	3.80	380	75
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.12	20.9%	13.1%	278	+0.29	2.92	472	75
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	75
Matt Wilkinson L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	21	SP	3.23	28.5%	9.2%	2.5%	.252	4.47	20.8%	11.3%	219	+1.24	3.23	337	75
Carson Whisenhunt L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	27.4%	11.1%	1.7%	.270	4.22	20.3%	11.0%	353	+1.11	3.11	411	74
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	74
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	74
Mason Montgomery L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	22	SP	3.56	26.8%	9.7%	2.7%	.284	4.74	23.5%	12.7%	258	+1.18	2.28	451	74
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	74
Cade Povich L 2022 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	23.9%	9.2%	3.3%	.293	4.03	23.6%	14.1%	414	-0.05	3.80	626	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.4	114	29.8%	10.8%	1.19	3.99
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Rich Harden ('11)	4.6	103	24.2%	10.7%	1.02	3.76
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Len Barker ('76-'87, 15 WAR*)	6.6	132	26.4%*	9.0%*	0.87*	4.55*