Thomas White
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
+1.2
WAR
Age 21
LHP
6'5" / 240 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 3.5 · 2031
ERA4.01
FIP4.01
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%26.0%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%14.8%
IP86
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.5peak
2031
OFP—55
K†6065
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 3 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 7 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.23 | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 21 | 21 | 96 | 411 | 120 | 38 | 6 | 22.2% | 10.8% | 1.9% | 2.81 | 3.64 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 20 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 21 | 21 | 90 | 376 | 145 | 51 | 2 | 30.2% | 13.7% | 0.7% | 2.31 | 2.64 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 3 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 86 | 361 | 94 | 41 | 9 | 26.0% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 96 | 401 | 112 | 47 | 11 | 27.9% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 3.59 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 125 | 47 | 11 | 26.5% | 10.0% | 2.4% | 3.90 | 3.82 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 136 | 575 | 155 | 53 | 14 | 26.9% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 3.79 | 3.69 | +2.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 156 | 657 | 179 | 58 | 16 | 27.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 3.61 | +3.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 31 | 31 | 169 | 715 | 196 | 62 | 17 | 27.5% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 3.63 | 3.57 | +3.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 176 | 745 | 206 | 64 | 18 | 27.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 3.58 | 3.54 | +3.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 175 | 739 | 205 | 64 | 18 | 27.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 3.56 | 3.55 | +3.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 31 | 31 | 172 | 728 | 201 | 63 | 18 | 27.6% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 3.57 | 3.58 | +3.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 31 | 31 | 169 | 712 | 196 | 62 | 18 | 27.5% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 3.60 | 3.63 | +3.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 30 | 30 | 164 | 690 | 188 | 61 | 17 | 27.3% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 3.65 | 3.69 | +3.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 29 | 29 | 158 | 666 | 180 | 60 | 17 | 27.1% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.76 | +2.8 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 152 | 640 | 171 | 59 | 17 | 26.8% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 3.85 | +2.5 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 145 | 611 | 162 | 57 | 17 | 26.5% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.95 | +2.2 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 138 | 581 | 152 | 55 | 17 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.06 | +1.9 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 47 | 200 | 851 | 230 | 108 | 12 | 27.0% | 12.6% | 1.5% | 2.65 | 3.22 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 47 | 200 | 851 | 230 | 108 | 12 | 27.0% | 12.6% | 1.5% | 2.65 | 3.22 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Thomas White (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 26.0% | 11.2% | 2.4% | — | 3.70 | 26.9% | 17.6% | 404 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 28.7% | 12.5% | 3.2% | .279 | 4.19 | 24.1% | 14.1% | 271 | +0.15 | 3.49 | 432 | 86 |
| Will Johnston L 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 86 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 83 |
| Connelly Early L 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.34 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .292 | 2.66 | 27.5% | 17.6% | 139 | -0.68 | 2.56 | 243 | 83 |
| Matt Wilkinson L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.21 | 28.5% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .252 | 4.84 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 104 | +1.63 | 3.21 | 223 | 83 |
| Andrew Abbott L 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.36 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.86 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 468 | +0.50 | 3.36 | 606 | 82 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 82 |
| Nick Zwack L 2028 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.15 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .299 | 5.76 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.61 | 3.15 | 248 | 81 |
| A.J. Block L 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 80 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 79 |
| Kyle Harrison L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.69 | 28.8% | 13.9% | 4.1% | .280 | 3.99 | 22.8% | 14.0% | 251 | -0.70 | 3.12 | 563 | 79 |
| Griffin Herring L 2027 · 3.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.24 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 1.1% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 119 | 79 |
| Drew Parrish L 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.45 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .261 | 5.90 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.45 | 3.45 | 522 | 78 |
| Brandon Williamson L 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 29.7% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .340 | 4.58 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 288 | +0.92 | 3.66 | 402 | 78 |
| Mitchell Parker L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .354 | 3.87 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 375 | -0.18 | 3.53 | 655 | 78 |
| Dalton Rogers L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.28 | 25.3% | 16.7% | 2.2% | .327 | 3.78 | 20.7% | 6.3% | 188 | -0.50 | 3.48 | 284 | 78 |
| Jordan Wicks L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .329 | 4.15 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 278 | +0.30 | 3.00 | 373 | 78 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.36 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.2% | .206 | 4.44 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.08 | 4.35 | 193 | 78 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .357 | 3.74 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.21 | 3.01 | 453 | 77 |
| Cade Povich L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.10 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.05 | 23.8% | 13.8% | 414 | -0.05 | 3.75 | 528 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.9 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.5 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +3.0 | $26M | +$25M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $7M | +3.3 | $30M | +$23M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $12M | +3.5 | $32M | +$20M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $17M | +3.5 | $33M | +$16M |
| Totals | $39M | $159M | +$120M | ||