Thomas White P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 21 LHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8897vR 106
ERA3.81
FIP3.81
K%30.5%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%17.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP
K: +7.1 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+7KBB: -5.8 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-6BBCONTACT: +0.4 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+0CONTACTSTAM: +9.8 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+10STAMTotal WAR: +1.20 (89 IP)+1.2WAR
0.01.53.00.00.60.70.80.90.9-$21M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—55
STUF6065
CTRL4045
CMD3545
K†7070
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSPre-Arb$0.3M+0.0$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.6$2M+$2M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.7$2M+$2M
2029Arb-1$9M+0.8$3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Arb-2$16M+0.9$3M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-3$24M+0.9$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $12M +$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202318MIX2 levels3242476067%1.429.2%25.0%4.2%0.0%6.233.80—
202318MIX2 levels3242476067%1.429.2%25.0%4.2%0.0%6.234.02—
202419MIX2 levels212196411120386100%4.622.2%10.8%11.4%2.1%2.813.74—
202419MIX2 levels212196411120386100%4.629.2%9.2%20.0%1.5%2.812.60—
202520MIX3 levels212190376145512100%4.330.2%13.7%16.6%0.6%2.312.61—
202520MIX3 levels212190376145512100%4.338.6%13.6%25.0%0.5%2.311.86—
▸ 2026 Season
202621AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp772510735154100%3.527.2%11.7%15.5%4.1%4.014.52+0.0
ROS21MLBMIA12126527484356100%5.430.5%13.0%17.6%2.3%3.813.81+0.6
ROS21MLBMIA11625831100%6.030.5%13.0%17.6%2.2%3.783.78+0.1
2026 TOT21MLBMIA——893811195010——31.2%13.3%17.9%2.7%3.874.01+1.2
2026 FULL21MLBMIA——627841——30.5%13.0%17.6%2.2%3.783.39+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202722MLBMIA26261305511696313100%5.030.7%11.5%19.2%2.3%3.713.61+2.7
202823MLBMIA32321697152207517100%5.330.8%10.5%20.2%2.3%3.603.49+3.8
202924MLBMIA33331857812427818100%5.630.9%10.0%20.9%2.3%3.503.41+4.3
203025MLBMIA32321857812437618100%5.831.1%9.7%21.4%2.3%3.423.36+4.4
203126MLBMIA31311857812457518100%6.031.4%9.7%21.7%2.3%3.373.33+4.5
203227MLBMIA30301807602387418100%6.031.3%9.7%21.6%2.4%3.373.37+4.3
203328MLBMIA29291757372307318100%6.031.2%9.9%21.3%2.5%3.423.46+4.0
203429MLBMIA28281677042187118100%6.031.0%10.1%20.9%2.6%3.523.59+3.5
203530MLBMIA26261576622036919100%6.030.6%10.4%20.2%2.8%3.673.76+3.0
203631MLBMIA24241466171866619100%6.130.2%10.8%19.5%3.1%3.853.97+2.4
203732MLBMIA23231355701706419100%5.929.8%11.2%18.6%3.3%4.064.19+1.9
203833MLBMIA21211245241536119100%5.929.3%11.6%17.7%3.6%4.294.44+1.4
203934MLBMIA19191134761375818100%5.928.7%12.1%16.6%3.9%4.554.72+0.9
202722MLBMIA14147029691347100%5.030.7%11.5%19.2%2.2%3.683.58+1.0
202823MLBMIA24241275361655712100%5.330.8%10.5%20.2%2.3%3.563.45+2.9
202924MLBMIA28281566592046615100%5.630.9%10.0%20.9%2.3%3.463.37+3.7
203025MLBMIA28281656972176816100%5.931.1%9.7%21.4%2.3%3.383.32+4.0
203126MLBMIA28281707182256916100%6.131.4%9.7%21.7%2.3%3.333.29+4.2
203227MLBMIA28281677052216916100%6.031.3%9.7%21.6%2.3%3.333.33+4.0
203328MLBMIA27271646922166817100%6.131.2%9.9%21.3%2.4%3.383.42+3.8
203429MLBMIA26261586672076817100%6.131.0%10.1%20.9%2.6%3.483.55+3.4
203530MLBMIA25251496291936617100%6.030.6%10.4%20.2%2.7%3.633.72+2.9
203631MLBMIA23231395871776317100%6.030.2%10.8%19.5%3.0%3.803.92+2.4
203732MLBMIA21211285401616017100%6.129.8%11.2%18.6%3.2%4.014.14+1.9
203833MLBMIA20201184981465817100%5.929.3%11.6%17.7%3.5%4.244.39+1.4
203934MLBMIA17171024311245216100%6.028.7%12.1%16.6%3.8%4.494.66+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—311311182076832354801202100%5.930.6%10.4%20.2%2.6%3.633.27+45.2
/ 200 IP—34342008442598822100%5.930.6%10.4%20.2%2.6%3.633.27+5.0
Career—52512159182411141598%4.126.2%12.4%13.8%1.7%2.813.37+5.1
/ 200 IP—48482008552241061498%4.126.2%12.4%13.8%1.7%2.813.37+4.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Thomas White (OGILVIE) —— 3.81 30.5%13.0%2.3%— 3.49 30.8%20.2%485 -0.32 ———
Ken Waldichuk L 2028 · 3.97 FIP 23 SP 3.97 28.7%12.5%3.1%.279 4.19 24.1%14.1%271 +0.22 3.42 432 83
Steve Hajjar L 2026 · 3.67 FIP 21 SP 3.67 30.2%14.9%2.2%.282 6.02 16.4%-7.8%97 +2.35 3.67 141 81
Matt Wilkinson L 2026 · 3.17 FIP 21 SP 3.17 28.5%9.2%2.4%.252 4.28 21.7%10.8%166 +1.11 3.17 284 79
Jake Eder L 2027 · 2.73 FIP 22 SP 2.73 27.9%10.3%1.2%.253 5.07 20.8%7.4%156 +2.34 2.73 335 79
Anthony Veneziano L 2028 · 4.24 FIP 23 SP 4.24 24.9%10.8%3.4%.298 5.19 18.7%8.0%358 +0.95 4.24 501 79
Brent Killam L 2028 · 4.35 FIP 23 SP 4.35 29.1%14.5%3.4%.284 7.12 18.4%9.6%80 +2.77 4.35 121 78
Andrew Abbott L 2028 · 3.37 FIP 23 SP 3.37 26.0%10.9%2.0%.336 3.94 23.8%15.7%468 +0.57 3.37 691 78
Kyle Harrison L 2026 · 4.73 FIP 21 SP 4.73 28.8%13.9%4.2%.280 3.72 24.4%16.3%320 -1.01 2.95 632 78
Reid Detmers L 2027 · 3.95 FIP 22 SP 3.95 29.9%9.1%4.0%.335 4.27 25.4%16.6%443 +0.32 2.84 690 77
Sam Weatherly L 2027 · 3.86 FIP 22 SP 3.86 24.0%12.8%2.1%.323 4.14 21.9%8.9%41 +0.28 3.86 189 77
Connelly Early L 2027 · 3.30 FIP 22 SP 3.30 24.1%9.8%1.8%.292 3.29 26.2%17.0%211 -0.01 2.52 315 77
Dalton Rogers L 2027 · 4.40 FIP 22 SP 4.40 25.3%16.7%2.4%.327 4.20 19.8%4.6%230 -0.20 3.42 326 76
Mason Molina L 2027 · 4.28 FIP 22 SP 4.28 22.7%12.6%2.7%.276 3.56 23.3%13.3%69 -0.72 3.56 165 75
Carson Whisenhunt L 2027 · 3.18 FIP 22 SP 3.18 27.4%11.1%1.8%.270 4.32 21.0%10.7%313 +1.14 3.18 372 75
Nick Zwack L 2028 · 3.10 FIP 23 SP 3.10 23.9%9.3%1.5%.299 5.99 18.2%8.4%143 +2.89 3.10 271 75
Carson Dorsey L 2027 · 2.99 FIP 22 SP 2.99 24.5%11.5%0.9%.313 5.47 18.3%5.8%65 +2.48 2.99 107 73
Adam Macko L 2026 · 3.62 FIP 21 SP 3.62 27.7%13.8%2.0%.349 3.83 21.4%10.2%249 +0.21 3.51 382 73
Mitchell Parker L 2026 · 4.03 FIP 21 SP 4.03 24.0%9.8%3.1%.354 3.90 21.4%9.8%375 -0.13 3.73 694 73
Johnny King L 2025 · 4.22 FIP 20 SP 4.22 23.7%15.4%2.1%.297 — ——— — 3.50 129 73
Mason Montgomery L 2027 · 3.56 FIP 22 SP 3.56 26.8%9.7%2.7%.284 4.69 23.7%12.3%258 +1.13 2.91 419 73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION1415330.7%10.5%1.033.67
Lance Lynn ('24)915423.9%8.1%1.203.86
Rich Hill ('23)910425.0%8.0%1.123.65
Trevor Bauer ('21)715926.8%8.7%1.133.68
Jon Gray ('24)1012223.4%7.8%1.154.45
James Paxton ('24)810625.8%7.7%1.123.89
Mike Clevinger ('23)711324.8%8.7%1.073.45