Connelly Early

P Washington Nationals

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	23	23	104	3.99	2.44	30.8%	8.7%	—	K 24.1% · BB 9.8% · FIP 3.33
2025	23	MIX3 levels	25	22	120	2.56	2.06	32.7%	8.9%	5.2	K 27.9% · BB 9.3% · FIP 2.52
2026	24	MIX2 levels	20	20	97	3.51	4.29	23.5%	9.4%	1.3	K 23.5% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.25
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	11	11	64	3.90	4.20	24.9%	8.5%	0.9
2028PROJ93% MLB	26	MLBWSH	14	14	81	4.07	4.18	25.1%	8.4%	1.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBWSH	13	13	79	4.16	4.21	25.1%	8.5%	1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.116First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$4M2031Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%57

xwOBA vs45

FB Velo43

CompsJoey Lucchesi (age 25) · Colton Gordon (age 25) · David Peterson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 112

ERA3.90

FIP4.20

K%24.9%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%16.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p5723.5%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.116 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$8M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$29M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	1	1	2	8	4	0	1	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	12.5%	4.50	5.74	—
2023	21	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	1	1	2	8	4	0	1	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	12.5%	4.50	5.60	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	104	448	138	39	7	100%	4.5	24.1%	9.8%	14.3%	1.9%	3.99	3.33	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	104	448	138	39	7	100%	4.5	24.1%	9.8%	14.3%	1.9%	3.99	3.33	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	104	448	138	39	7	100%	4.5	30.8%	8.7%	22.1%	1.6%	3.99	2.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	22	120	493	161	44	5	88%	4.8	27.9%	9.3%	18.6%	1.1%	2.56	2.52	+4.4
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	22	120	493	161	44	5	88%	4.8	27.9%	9.3%	18.6%	1.1%	2.56	2.52	+4.4
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	22	120	493	161	44	5	88%	4.8	32.7%	8.9%	23.7%	1.0%	2.56	2.06	+5.2
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	97	417	98	39	15	100%	4.9	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	3.8%	3.51	4.25	+1.3
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	97	417	98	39	15	100%	4.9	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	3.8%	3.51	4.25	+1.3
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	97	417	98	39	15	100%	4.9	23.5%	9.4%	14.1%	3.6%	3.51	4.29	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	22	114	479	123	38	15	100%	5.2	25.7%	7.9%	17.7%	3.1%	3.16	3.65	+2.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	11	11	64	270	67	23	9	100%	5.8	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	3.2%	3.90	4.20	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	86	365	92	31	12	100%	6.2	25.1%	8.4%	16.6%	3.2%	4.07	4.18	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	83	351	88	30	11	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.5%	16.5%	3.2%	4.16	4.21	+1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	79	335	84	29	11	100%	6.1	24.9%	8.7%	16.3%	3.3%	4.24	4.30	+1.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	71	298	73	27	10	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	3.5%	4.37	4.46	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	59	251	59	23	9	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.7%	4.55	4.67	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	47	199	46	19	8	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.6%	13.4%	3.9%	4.76	4.90	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	WSH	6	6	35	146	32	15	6	100%	5.8	22.1%	10.0%	12.2%	4.2%	5.00	5.15	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	81	342	86	29	11	100%	5.8	25.1%	8.4%	16.6%	3.2%	4.07	4.18	+1.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	79	334	84	28	11	100%	6.1	25.1%	8.5%	16.5%	3.2%	4.16	4.21	+1.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	75	317	79	27	11	100%	6.2	24.9%	8.7%	16.3%	3.3%	4.24	4.30	+1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	67	283	69	25	10	100%	6.1	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	3.5%	4.37	4.46	+0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	56	236	56	22	9	100%	6.2	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.7%	4.55	4.67	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	45	190	44	18	7	100%	5.6	22.9%	9.6%	13.4%	3.9%	4.76	4.90	+0.3
2034	32	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	33	139	31	14	6	100%	5.5	22.1%	10.0%	12.2%	4.2%	5.00	5.15	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	95	550	2321	571	202	79	100%	5.8	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	3.4%	4.11	3.99	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	208	73	29	100%	5.8	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	3.4%	4.11	3.99	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		69	66	323	1366	348	125	30	96%	4.7	25.5%	9.2%	16.3%	2.2%	3.32	3.34	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	847	216	78	19	96%	4.7	25.5%	9.2%	16.3%	2.2%	3.32	3.34	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 72 IPFIP 2.16 → 2.84 (+0.68)K% 32.3% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.32%	—	×0.810	26.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×1.100	10.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.01%	÷1.119	×1.200	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 2.16 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 29 IPFIP 2.63 → 2.99 (+0.35)K% 30.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.860	26.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.40%	—	×0.900	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.71%	÷0.984	×1.100	1.91%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 2.63 → 2.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 68 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.65 (+0.98)K% 30.9% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.93%	—	×0.770	23.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.25%	—	×1.150	9.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.043	×1.250	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 36 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.75 (+0.67)K% 30.6% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.57%	—	×0.810	24.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.55%	—	×1.100	10.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.64%	÷1.018	×1.200	0.75%

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connelly Early (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.23	25.0%	16.5%	249	+0.03	—	—	—
Joey Lucchesi L 2018 · 4.06 FIP	25	SP	4.06	26.5%	7.5%	4.1%	.301	3.83	23.6%	15.6%	202	-0.23	3.12	817	77
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	75
David Peterson L 2021 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	24.0%	10.1%	3.8%	.298	3.63	24.2%	14.2%	401	-0.83	2.81	1,078	73
Parker Messick L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	23.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.302	3.09	25.2%	18.3%	325	-0.27	2.97	580	73
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	73
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	73
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	72
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	19.4%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.51	17.5%	8.3%	190	+0.30	4.18	539	72
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	72
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	71
Bryan Sammons L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP	4.28	21.1%	11.0%	2.9%	.287	6.30	18.5%	6.7%	158	+2.02	3.58	688	71
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	71
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	71
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	70
Steven Matz L 2016 · 3.19 FIP	25	SP	3.19	23.6%	5.3%	2.6%	.307	4.33	21.7%	14.6%	394	+1.14	3.19	1,226	70
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	70
Brandyn Garcia L 2024 · 3.27 FIP	24	SP	3.27	21.2%	10.7%	1.1%	.289	3.27	26.9%	17.0%	122	+0.00	2.44	238	69
Matthew Boyd L 2016 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	19.7%	7.0%	3.6%	.276	4.23	24.1%	17.0%	542	-0.04	2.22	1,457	69
Jacob Latz L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	23.6%	11.4%	3.7%	.299	4.47	23.9%	12.2%	160	-0.10	2.39	480	69
Doug Nikhazy L 2024 · 4.12 FIP	24	SP	4.12	21.3%	10.5%	2.7%	.233	5.25	19.2%	7.9%	135	+1.13	4.12	463	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	72	24.6%	8.7%	1.31	4.10
Cecilio Guante ('82-'90, 6 WAR*)	3.0	66	26.6%*	9.2%*	1.30*	3.85*
Joe Beckwith ('79-'86, 3 WAR*)	2.1	70	24.9%*	8.2%*	1.13*	3.96*
Ron Davis ('78-'88, 6 WAR*)	3.7	83	28.0%*	9.3%*	1.25*	4.20*
Tyler Duffey ('24)	2.4	61	23.1%	7.0%	1.24	4.57
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23