Connelly Early — OGILVIE

Connelly Early P Boston Red Sox

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.4 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 97 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8694vR 102

ERA3.58

FIP3.35

K%25.4%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%16.7%

ROS IP97

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$31M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

FB+3.0 (55%)

CH+1.1 (18%)

SI (20%)

CU (11%)

SL-1.0 (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.116 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.6	$10M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$9M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$12M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$16M		$47M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	1	1	2	8	4	0	1	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	12.5%	4.50	5.74	—
2023	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	1	1	2	8	4	0	1	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	12.5%	4.50	5.74	—
2023	21	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	1	1	2	8	4	0	1	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	12.5%	4.50	5.60	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	104	448	138	39	7	100%	4.5	24.1%	9.8%	14.3%	1.9%	3.99	3.33	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	104	448	138	39	7	100%	4.5	24.1%	9.8%	14.3%	1.9%	3.99	3.33	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	104	448	138	39	7	100%	4.5	30.8%	8.7%	22.1%	1.6%	3.99	2.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	22	120	493	161	44	5	88%	4.8	27.7%	9.3%	18.4%	1.1%	2.56	2.54	+3.6
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	22	120	493	161	44	5	88%	4.8	27.7%	9.3%	18.4%	1.1%	2.56	2.54	+3.6
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	22	120	493	161	44	5	88%	4.8	32.7%	8.9%	23.7%	1.0%	2.56	2.06	+4.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	21	111	469	122	38	15	100%	5.3	26.0%	8.1%	17.9%	3.2%	3.24	3.69	+1.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	17	17	92	390	93	34	15	100%	5.4	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	3.9%	3.44	4.36	+0.6
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	17	17	92	390	93	34	15	100%	5.4	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	3.9%	3.44	4.36	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	MLB RAW	BOS	17	17	92	390	93	34	15	100%	5.4	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	3.8%	3.44	4.30	+0.6
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	BOS	17	17	92	390	93	34	15	100%	5.4	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	3.8%	3.44	4.30	+0.6
ROS	24	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	2.3%	3.58	3.35	—
ROS	24	MLB CTX	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	2.3%	3.55	3.32	—
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	92	390	93	34	15	—	—	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	3.8%	3.44	4.36	+0.5
FULL	24	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	92	387	93	34	15	—	—	24.0%	8.8%	15.2%	3.9%	3.44	4.31	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	127	536	140	46	15	100%	5.8	26.2%	8.5%	17.7%	2.8%	4.01	3.89	+1.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	139	587	155	50	17	100%	6.0	26.4%	8.5%	17.9%	2.8%	3.93	3.87	+1.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	141	595	157	51	17	100%	6.1	26.4%	8.6%	17.8%	2.9%	3.92	3.91	+1.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	141	595	156	52	18	100%	6.1	26.3%	8.7%	17.5%	3.0%	3.96	3.99	+1.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	135	568	146	51	18	100%	6.1	25.7%	8.9%	16.7%	3.1%	4.08	4.15	+1.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	126	534	133	49	18	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.2%	15.7%	3.3%	4.25	4.36	+0.8
2033	31	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	118	498	121	48	18	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	3.5%	4.46	4.59	+0.4
2034	32	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	109	461	108	46	17	100%	6.1	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	3.8%	4.69	4.85	+0.1
2035	33	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	100	423	96	44	17	100%	5.9	22.6%	10.4%	12.1%	4.1%	4.95	5.13	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	121	511	134	44	14	100%	5.8	26.2%	8.5%	17.7%	2.7%	3.97	3.85	+1.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	22	22	132	557	147	47	15	100%	6.0	26.4%	8.5%	17.9%	2.7%	3.89	3.83	+1.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	22	22	134	566	149	48	16	100%	6.1	26.4%	8.6%	17.8%	2.8%	3.88	3.87	+1.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	22	22	134	566	149	49	16	100%	6.1	26.3%	8.7%	17.5%	2.9%	3.92	3.95	+1.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	128	540	139	48	16	100%	6.1	25.7%	8.9%	16.7%	3.0%	4.04	4.11	+1.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	BOS	20	20	120	507	127	47	16	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.2%	15.7%	3.2%	4.20	4.31	+0.8
2033	31	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	112	473	115	45	16	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	3.5%	4.41	4.54	+0.4
2034	32	MLB CTX	BOS	17	17	104	439	103	44	16	100%	6.1	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	3.7%	4.64	4.80	+0.1
2035	33	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	95	401	91	42	16	100%	5.9	22.6%	10.4%	12.1%	4.0%	4.89	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		201	201	1190	5027	1274	453	158	100%	5.9	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	3.1%	4.08	3.82	+15.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	214	76	27	100%	5.9	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	3.1%	4.08	3.82	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		66	63	317	1339	342	124	30	95%	4.8	25.5%	9.3%	16.3%	2.3%	3.29	3.35	+10.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	845	216	78	19	95%	4.8	25.5%	9.3%	16.3%	2.3%	3.29	3.35	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connelly Early (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.31	28.4%	8.8%	2.0%	—	3.89	26.3%	17.8%	407	+0.58	—	—	—
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	75
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	74
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	73
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.26	473	72
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	70
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	70
Trenton Wallace L 2023 · 2.87 FIP	24	SP	2.87	23.2%	8.1%	1.3%	.208	5.05	22.2%	9.7%	165	+2.18	2.87	286	70
Drew Smyly L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	26	SP	4.09	27.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.293	4.44	22.6%	16.2%	175	+0.35	2.00	840	69
Ryan Rolison L 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	21.5%	6.9%	3.0%	.320	5.21	14.5%	9.5%	35	+1.40	3.81	386	69
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	68
Carson Palmquist L 2023 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	26.7%	10.8%	3.9%	.324	4.46	21.1%	8.9%	288	+0.09	3.84	380	68
Parker Mushinski L 2019 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	21.6%	8.2%	2.3%	.303	3.67	23.3%	13.3%	106	+0.10	3.11	455	68
Tyson Guerrero L 2023 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	23.9%	9.8%	3.5%	.279	4.67	19.4%	7.6%	142	+0.41	4.26	250	67
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	66
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	66
Adam Seminaris L 2023 · 4.01 FIP	24	SP	4.01	19.6%	9.8%	2.4%	.362	3.57	19.3%	12.4%	338	-0.44	3.00	577	65
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	65
Anthony Banda L 2018 · 3.40 FIP	24	SP-	3.40	22.3%	9.2%	1.9%	.331	5.02	20.1%	11.2%	112	+1.62	2.89	876	65
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	65
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	123	25.5%	9.1%	1.21	4.16
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68