Connelly Early — OGILVIE

Connelly Early P Boston Red Sox

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.9 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 61 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8897vR 106

ERA3.85

FIP3.62

K%25.4%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%16.6%

ROS IP61

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

FB+3.0 (55%)

CH+1.1 (18%)

SI (20%)

CU (11%)

SL-1.0 (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.116 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+1.0	$8M	+$8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$8M	+$4M
2030	Arb-2	$9M	+1.3	$8M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$11M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$16M		$43M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	21	A	Salem Red Sox	1	1	2	8	4	0	1	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	12.5%	4.50	5.74	—
2023	21	A	Salem Red Sox	1	1	2	8	4	0	1	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	12.5%	4.50	5.60	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	23	23	104	448	138	39	7	100%	4.5	24.1%	9.8%	14.3%	1.8%	3.99	3.30	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	23	23	104	448	138	39	7	100%	4.5	30.8%	8.7%	22.1%	1.6%	3.99	2.44	—
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	25	22	120	493	161	44	5	88%	4.8	28.1%	9.6%	18.5%	1.1%	2.56	2.52	+4.0
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	25	22	120	493	161	44	5	88%	4.8	32.7%	8.9%	23.7%	1.0%	2.56	2.06	+4.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	17	17	92	390	93	34	15	100%	5.4	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	3.8%	3.44	4.30	+1.0
ROS	24	MLB	BOS	11	11	61	258	66	23	7	100%	5.6	25.4%	8.9%	16.6%	2.8%	3.85	3.62	+0.7
ROS	24	MLB	BOS	11	11	61	258	66	23	7	100%	5.5	25.4%	8.9%	16.6%	2.8%	3.86	3.63	+0.7
2026 TOT	24	MLB	BOS	—	—	153	648	159	57	22	—	—	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	3.4%	3.60	4.03	+2.5
2026 FULL	24	MLB	BOS	—	—	153	645	159	57	22	—	—	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	3.5%	3.60	4.04	+2.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	BOS	20	20	116	491	129	42	14	100%	5.8	26.2%	8.6%	17.6%	2.8%	4.01	3.89	+2.1
2028	26	MLB	BOS	21	21	128	542	143	46	15	100%	6.1	26.5%	8.6%	17.9%	2.8%	3.93	3.87	+2.3
2029	27	MLB	BOS	22	22	130	551	146	48	16	100%	5.9	26.4%	8.6%	17.8%	2.9%	3.92	3.91	+2.3
2030	28	MLB	BOS	22	22	130	551	145	48	16	100%	5.9	26.3%	8.8%	17.5%	3.0%	3.96	3.99	+2.2
2031	29	MLB	BOS	21	21	125	526	135	47	16	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.0%	16.7%	3.1%	4.08	4.15	+1.8
2032	30	MLB	BOS	20	20	117	494	124	46	16	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.3%	15.7%	3.3%	4.25	4.36	+1.4
2033	31	MLB	BOS	18	18	109	461	112	45	16	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	3.5%	4.45	4.59	+1.0
2034	32	MLB	BOS	17	17	101	426	100	43	16	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	3.8%	4.69	4.85	+0.6
2027	25	MLB	BOS	19	19	111	469	123	40	13	100%	5.8	26.2%	8.6%	17.6%	2.8%	4.02	3.90	+2.0
2028	26	MLB	BOS	20	20	122	515	136	44	15	100%	6.1	26.5%	8.6%	17.9%	2.8%	3.94	3.88	+2.2
2029	27	MLB	BOS	21	21	124	524	138	45	15	100%	5.9	26.4%	8.6%	17.8%	2.9%	3.93	3.92	+2.1
2030	28	MLB	BOS	21	21	124	524	138	46	16	100%	5.9	26.3%	8.8%	17.5%	3.0%	3.97	4.00	+2.0
2031	29	MLB	BOS	20	20	118	498	128	45	16	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.0%	16.7%	3.1%	4.09	4.16	+1.7
2032	30	MLB	BOS	18	18	111	469	117	44	16	100%	6.2	25.0%	9.3%	15.7%	3.3%	4.26	4.37	+1.3
2033	31	MLB	BOS	17	17	104	439	107	42	16	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	3.5%	4.46	4.60	+1.0
2034	32	MLB	BOS	16	16	96	405	95	41	15	100%	6.0	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	3.8%	4.70	4.86	+0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			184	184	1082	4568	1170	408	143	100%	5.9	25.6%	8.9%	16.7%	3.1%	4.04	3.78	+20.5
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	845	216	75	26	100%	5.9	25.6%	8.9%	16.7%	3.1%	4.04	3.78	+3.8
Career	—			66	63	317	1339	344	126	29	95%	4.8	25.7%	9.4%	16.3%	2.2%	3.29	3.32	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—			42	40	200	845	217	79	18	95%	4.8	25.7%	9.4%	16.3%	2.2%	3.29	3.32	+4.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connelly Early (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.32	28.5%	9.0%	2.0%	—	3.89	26.4%	17.8%	375	+0.57	—	—	—
Dalton Pence L 2025 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	22.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	153	76
Tyler Skaggs L 2027 · 3.21 FIP	25	SP	3.21	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.81	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.60	3.21	372	75
Jacob Latz L 2025 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	23.0%	12.6%	0.9%	.222	5.11	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.83	2.43	453	71
Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	20.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	221	71
Evan Lee L 2026 · 4.00 FIP	24	SP	4.00	24.2%	11.1%	2.8%	.333	4.48	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.48	3.84	129	70
Mason Molina L 2025 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP	3.56	23.3%	10.0%	2.1%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	165	70
Luke Fox L 2026 · 2.79 FIP	24	SP	2.79	26.2%	7.7%	1.7%	.167	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	148	69
Trenton Wallace L 2026 · 2.75 FIP	24	SP	2.75	23.2%	8.1%	1.1%	.208	5.17	22.8%	9.0%	165	+2.42	2.75	286	69
Drew Smyly L 2028 · 4.13 FIP	26	SP	4.13	27.0%	8.0%	4.2%	.293	4.51	22.6%	16.2%	175	+0.38	2.01	840	69
Jackson Kent L 2025 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP	3.80	23.2%	7.8%	3.0%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	197	68
Ryan Rolison L 2026 · 3.63 FIP	24	SP	3.63	21.5%	6.9%	2.7%	.320	5.03	15.4%	9.5%	35	+1.40	3.63	362	68
Kyle Carr L 2026 · 4.01 FIP	24	SP	4.01	22.7%	10.0%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	304	68
James Paxton L 2028 · 4.26 FIP	26	SP	4.26	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	3.00	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.26	2.48	924	68
Parker Mushinski L 2025 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP-	3.61	21.6%	8.2%	2.4%	.303	3.72	23.3%	13.3%	106	+0.11	3.21	439	68
Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	18.5%	7.5%	2.4%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	152	68
Tyson Guerrero L 2026 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	23.9%	9.8%	3.4%	.279	4.62	18.9%	7.3%	123	+0.42	4.20	231	67
Gage Jump L 2025 · 3.32 FIP	23	SP	3.32	26.1%	9.4%	2.2%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	199	66
Cesar Perdomo L 2026 · 3.86 FIP	24	SP	3.86	24.4%	8.2%	3.2%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	372	66
Payton Tolle L 2025 · 3.08 FIP	23	SP	3.08	25.8%	7.3%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	207	66
A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.86	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.18	3.64	203	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	116	25.8%	9.0%	1.17	4.09
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Mike Clevinger ('23)	7	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68