Connelly Early
P
Boston Red Sox
+2.4
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 2.6 · 2028
ERA3.03
FIP3.50
xFIP4.36
SIERA4.41
K%26.9%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%17.7%
IP114
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.6peak
2028
OFP—55
K†6060
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p3423.0%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.371
FB+3.0 (52%)
CH+1.1 (21%)
SI (19%)
CU (13%)
SL-1.0 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Salem Red Sox | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 23 | 23 | 104 | 448 | 138 | 39 | 7 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 3.99 | 3.34 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 22 | 120 | 493 | 161 | 44 | 5 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 1.1% | 2.56 | 2.56 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 23.8% | 11.9% | 1.2% | 2.29 | 3.25 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 104 | 39 | 8 | 26.0% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 2.72 | 3.19 | +2.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 114 | 484 | 124 | 49 | 9 | 25.6% | 10.1% | 1.8% | 2.65 | 3.20 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 128 | 539 | 140 | 50 | 11 | 25.9% | 9.2% | 2.0% | 3.41 | 3.56 | +2.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 135 | 569 | 147 | 51 | 12 | 25.8% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.59 | +2.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 138 | 581 | 149 | 52 | 12 | 25.7% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 3.61 | 3.63 | +2.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 138 | 581 | 148 | 52 | 13 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 3.66 | 3.68 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 134 | 568 | 142 | 52 | 13 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.2% | 3.71 | 3.75 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 130 | 551 | 135 | 51 | 13 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 3.79 | 3.84 | +2.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 126 | 532 | 127 | 50 | 13 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.95 | +1.9 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 119 | 48 | 13 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 4.06 | +1.7 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 110 | 47 | 12 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 4.19 | +1.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 110 | 463 | 102 | 46 | 12 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 4.33 | +1.2 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 93 | 44 | 12 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.48 | +1.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 97 | 408 | 83 | 42 | 12 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.64 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 74 | 40 | 11 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.82 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 50 | 245 | 1033 | 271 | 102 | 16 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 1.5% | 3.16 | 2.98 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 41 | 200 | 843 | 221 | 83 | 13 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 1.5% | 3.16 | 2.98 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connelly Early (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.50 | 26.9% | 9.2% | 2.0% | — | 3.59 | 25.8% | 16.7% | 400 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Nick Maronde L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 75 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 73 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.61 | 16.2% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .266 | 6.15 | 11.5% | -1.2% | 56 | +2.54 | 3.61 | 145 | 73 |
| Brad Hand L 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 72 |
| Hunter Owen L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 71 |
| Daniel McGrath L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.65 | 16.7% | 10.6% | 1.1% | .318 | 3.51 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 112 | -0.14 | 3.51 | 474 | 71 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 70 |
| Matt Tracy L 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.94 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .306 | 4.11 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.17 | 3.24 | 298 | 70 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.74 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.67 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 208 | +0.93 | 2.03 | 402 | 70 |
| Nick Sando L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 154 | 69 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 69 |
| Carson Teel L 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.43 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 1.2% | .292 | 4.88 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 144 | +1.45 | 3.43 | 248 | 69 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 69 |
| Nick Routt L 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.02 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 0.6% | .340 | 3.88 | 15.4% | 6.1% | 104 | +0.86 | 3.02 | 195 | 68 |
| Ryan Webb L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.91 | 18.3% | 11.2% | 1.7% | .278 | 3.88 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 277 | -0.03 | 3.29 | 400 | 68 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2027 · 3.17 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.17 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.0% | .300 | 3.70 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 290 | +0.53 | 3.17 | 372 | 68 |
| Tim Berry L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.44 | 12.0% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .346 | 5.04 | 14.7% | -0.6% | 113 | +0.60 | 4.04 | 196 | 68 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 68 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.5% | .295 | 2.85 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 16 | -1.02 | 2.85 | 221 | 68 |
| Rafe Schlesinger L 2024 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.38 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 0.8% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 104 | 67 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.116 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.3 | $18M | +$18M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.5 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.6 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $8M | +2.6 | $23M | +$15M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $14M | +2.5 | $23M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $19M | +2.4 | $22M | +$3M |
| Totals | $44M | $129M | +$85M | ||