Brandyn Garcia
P
Reno Aces
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.88
FIP4.37
xFIP4.03
SIERA4.19
K%22.5%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.3%
IP78
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p2722.1%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
SL+1.1 (30%)
CT (15%)
SI (52%)
CH (2%)
FB-2.5 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | 9 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 27 | 25 | 116 | 496 | 134 | 47 | 4 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 1.1% | 2.25 | 3.28 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52 | 0 | 59 | 262 | 69 | 32 | 5 | 22.9% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | 6 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 12 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 74 | 37 | 8 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 4.88 | 4.37 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 86 | 364 | 86 | 45 | 9 | 23.5% | 12.3% | 2.5% | 4.74 | 3.96 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 74 | 36 | 8 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.57 | 4.37 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 73 | 35 | 8 | 22.6% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 70 | 34 | 8 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 66 | 33 | 8 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.55 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 62 | 33 | 8 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 58 | 32 | 8 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 53 | 31 | 8 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 49 | 30 | 8 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 44 | 29 | 8 | 18.3% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 40 | 27 | 7 | 17.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.25 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 94 | 25 | 193 | 833 | 185 | 98 | 15 | 22.2% | 11.7% | 1.7% | 2.80 | 3.67 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 26 | 200 | 865 | 192 | 102 | 16 | 22.2% | 11.7% | 1.7% | 2.80 | 3.67 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandyn Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.41 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 228 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 80 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 79 |
| Jake Diekman L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 78 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.59 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.75 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +2.16 | 3.29 | 142 | 77 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .368 | 3.62 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.27 | 3.02 | 153 | 77 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 77 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.09 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.3% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 76 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 76 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 76 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 76 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.35 | 17.2% | 1.8% | 74 | -0.19 | 3.66 | 330 | 76 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 75 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 75 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 75 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 75 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 0.8% | .312 | 4.58 | 17.8% | 3.7% | 76 | +1.10 | 3.48 | 134 | 75 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .226 | 5.06 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.32 | 2.02 | 280 | 75 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 75 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .257 | 4.72 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 127 | +0.81 | 2.70 | 655 | 74 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.04 | 194 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.6M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $12M | +$5M | ||