Brandyn Garcia — OGILVIE

Brandyn Garcia P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 235 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6574vR 82

ERA3.50

FIP3.60

K%26.2%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%15.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5045

CMD3540

K†5060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p6026.9%

p9032.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.222

SL+1.1 (30%)

CT (15%)

SI (52%)

CH (2%)

FB-2.5 (52%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.8M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$13M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	10	39	8	3	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	7.7%	12.8%	2.6%	1.80	3.75	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	10	39	8	3	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	7.7%	12.8%	2.6%	1.80	3.75	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	10	39	8	3	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	7.7%	12.8%	2.6%	1.80	3.70	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	116	496	134	47	4	93%	4.3	21.2%	10.7%	10.5%	1.1%	2.25	3.27	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	116	496	134	47	4	93%	4.3	21.2%	10.7%	10.5%	1.1%	2.25	3.27	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	116	496	134	47	4	93%	4.3	27.0%	9.5%	17.5%	0.8%	2.25	2.45	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	0	59	262	69	32	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.2%	10.3%	2.6%	3.99	4.20	+0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	0	59	262	69	32	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.2%	10.3%	2.6%	3.99	4.20	+0.2
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	0	59	262	69	32	5	0%	1.1	26.3%	12.2%	14.1%	1.9%	3.99	3.49	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			65	0	58	230	67	17	2	0%	0.9	29.1%	7.4%	21.7%	0.9%	2.97	2.11	+1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	61	0	56	219	71	19	3	0%	0.9	31.0%	8.2%	22.8%	1.5%	2.10	2.33	+1.5
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	61	0	56	219	71	19	3	0%	0.9	31.0%	8.2%	22.8%	1.5%	2.10	2.33	+1.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	ARI	10	0	12	55	18	10	1	0%	1.2	32.7%	18.2%	14.5%	1.8%	2.19	3.64	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	ARI	51	0	43	164	53	9	2	0%	0.8	32.3%	5.5%	26.8%	1.2%	2.08	1.74	+1.5
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	ARI	51	0	43	164	53	9	2	0%	0.8	32.3%	5.5%	26.8%	1.2%	2.08	1.74	+1.5
ROS	26	MLB MLE	ARI	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	26.2%	11.0%	15.2%	2.4%	3.50	3.60	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	ARI	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	26.2%	11.0%	15.2%	2.3%	3.43	3.53	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	62	244	77	22	4	—	—	31.8%	8.9%	22.9%	1.5%	2.24	2.45	+1.7
FULL	26	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	49	208	77	22	4	—	—	37.3%	10.5%	26.8%	1.7%	2.79	2.22	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ARI	128	0	134	566	142	57	13	0%	1.0	25.1%	10.1%	15.1%	2.3%	3.84	3.90	+1.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	124	0	130	549	136	55	14	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	2.5%	3.95	4.01	+0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	ARI	118	0	124	524	126	53	14	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.1%	13.9%	2.6%	4.09	4.18	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	ARI	111	0	117	493	115	51	14	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	2.8%	4.27	4.39	+0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	ARI	121	0	127	536	135	54	12	0%	1.0	25.1%	10.1%	15.1%	2.2%	3.77	3.83	+1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	118	0	124	524	130	53	12	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	2.3%	3.88	3.94	+0.8
2029	29	MLB CTX	ARI	112	0	118	498	120	51	12	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.1%	13.9%	2.5%	4.01	4.10	+0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	ARI	106	0	111	469	109	49	13	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	2.7%	4.18	4.30	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		527	0	543	2280	567	225	51	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	2.3%	3.84	3.49	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	839	209	83	19	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	2.3%	3.84	3.49	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		149	25	240	1016	240	106	17	17%	1.6	23.6%	10.4%	13.2%	1.6%	2.62	3.32	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	21	200	845	200	88	14	17%	1.6	23.6%	10.4%	13.2%	1.6%	2.62	3.32	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandyn Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	21.8%	12.5%	2.5%	—	4.03	24.7%	14.6%	388	-0.56	—	—	—
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	78
Enny Romero L 2017 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	26.5%	8.6%	2.9%	.316	6.23	16.4%	11.5%	10	+2.72	3.51	188	78
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	76
Peyton Alford L 2023 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.16	24.1%	12.9%	172	+0.47	3.66	288	75
Joey Marciano L 2021 · 3.65 FIP	26	SU	3.65	24.9%	9.2%	2.7%	.301	4.64	20.1%	5.2%	102	+0.99	3.65	330	74
Grant Wolfram L 2023 · 3.73 FIP	26	SU	3.73	24.9%	9.6%	2.8%	.265	3.04	23.3%	14.9%	163	-0.69	2.41	418	74
Jerry Vasto L 2018 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	24.0%	11.5%	1.8%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	206	74
Reagan Todd L 2022 · 3.82 FIP	26	SU	3.82	25.6%	12.0%	2.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	122	74
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	73
Giovanni Soto L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	25.6%	10.5%	3.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	128	73
Brendan Nail L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	22.6%	12.5%	2.7%	.311	4.39	18.9%	8.4%	53	+0.12	3.45	165	73
Williams Jerez L 2018 · 3.99 FIP	26	SU	3.99	25.0%	10.4%	3.1%	.337	4.51	21.7%	13.4%	77	+0.52	3.58	364	73
Wandy Peralta L 2017 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	21.7%	8.7%	2.8%	.257	4.77	17.1%	6.7%	127	+0.85	2.69	725	72
Mason Melotakis L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	26	SU	3.58	21.9%	10.9%	1.8%	.264	5.66	12.0%	0.6%	30	+2.08	3.32	142	72
Conor Lillis-White L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	26.8%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	1.80	182	72
Jesse Biddle L 2018 · 3.45 FIP	26	SU	3.45	25.2%	9.8%	2.3%	.263	4.04	25.1%	12.1%	72	+0.59	3.35	311	72
Locke St. John L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	26.1%	11.4%	3.1%	.296	4.22	21.5%	10.4%	108	+0.19	3.07	389	72
Michael Johnson L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.7%	9.5%	3.1%	.272	5.19	13.4%	3.4%	67	+0.99	3.92	256	72
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	20.7%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.62	21.8%	11.1%	110	+0.65	3.96	265	72
James Pazos L 2017 · 3.72 FIP	26	SU	3.72	27.1%	10.0%	3.0%	.306	4.00	18.5%	9.9%	101	+0.28	2.55	261	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	128	23.8%	10.6%	0.98	4.13
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12