Jack Sellinger

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 230 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	32	43	2.70	1.81	33.9%	10.2%	—	K 26.4% · BB 9.7% · FIP 2.65
2025	25	MIX2 levels	40	67	2.29	2.38	32.0%	14.0%	—	K 24.6% · BB 17.0% · FIP 3.45
2026	26	AAMIA	34	56	3.23	2.33	28.9%	11.6%	—	K 23.4% · BB 12.7% · FIP 3.01
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIA	1	1	4.51	4.51	24.4%	14.7%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBMIA	19	20	4.54	4.58	24.2%	14.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBMIA	25	26	4.62	4.69	23.9%	14.1%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control25Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsAaron Brown (age 27) · Scott Sauerbeck (age 28) · Colton Johnson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%24.4%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD5050

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	4	0	3	11	3	1	0	0%	0.7	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.95	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	4	0	3	11	3	1	0	0%	0.7	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.98	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	43	186	63	19	1	0%	1.4	26.4%	9.7%	16.7%	1.0%	2.70	2.65	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	43	186	63	19	1	0%	1.4	26.4%	9.7%	16.7%	1.0%	2.70	2.65	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	43	186	63	19	1	0%	1.4	33.9%	10.2%	23.7%	0.5%	2.70	1.81	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	67	278	89	39	1	0%	1.7	24.6%	17.0%	7.6%	0.5%	2.29	3.45	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	67	278	89	39	1	0%	1.7	24.6%	17.0%	7.6%	0.5%	2.29	3.45	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	67	278	89	39	1	0%	1.7	32.0%	14.0%	18.0%	0.4%	2.29	2.38	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	34	0	56	242	70	28	1	0%	1.6	23.4%	12.7%	10.7%	0.5%	3.23	3.01	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	34	0	56	242	70	28	1	0%	1.6	23.4%	12.7%	10.7%	0.5%	3.23	3.01	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	34	0	56	242	70	28	1	0%	1.6	28.9%	11.6%	17.4%	0.4%	3.23	2.33	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	24.4%	14.7%	9.7%	2.3%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	52	0	54	229	55	33	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	14.3%	9.9%	2.4%	4.54	4.58	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	44	0	46	195	47	27	5	0%	1.0	23.9%	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	4.62	4.69	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	19	0	20	84	20	12	2	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.3%	9.9%	2.4%	4.54	4.58	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	25	0	26	110	26	16	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	4.62	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	0	46	194	47	28	5	0%	1.0	24.0%	14.2%	9.8%	2.5%	4.58	4.26	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	122	22	0%	1.1	24.0%	14.2%	9.8%	2.5%	4.58	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		110	0	168	717	177	97	4	0%	1.5	24.7%	13.5%	11.2%	0.6%	2.67	3.07	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	0	200	852	210	115	5	0%	1.5	24.7%	13.5%	11.2%	0.6%	2.67	3.07	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 56 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.01 (+0.66)K% 28.9% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.93%	—	×0.810	23.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.57%	—	×1.100	12.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.41%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.50%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 58 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.45 (+0.96)K% 32.0% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.97%	—	×0.770	24.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.75%	—	×1.150	16.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.41%	÷1.006	×1.250	0.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 8 IPFIP 1.49 → 2.12 (+0.63)K% 32.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.35%	—	×0.810	26.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.100	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.103	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.49 → 2.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 34 IPFIP 1.51 → 2.65 (+1.14)K% 35.6% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.62%	—	×0.740	26.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.22%	—	×1.180	9.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷0.888	×1.300	1.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 1.51 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 9 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.86 (+0.87)K% 27.5% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.50%	—	×0.770	21.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.50%	—	×1.150	20.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.935	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Sellinger (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	24.4%	14.7%	2.3%	—	4.63	24.1%	9.9%	100	+0.12	—	—	—
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	89
Scott Sauerbeck L 2000 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	23.8%	15.2%	1.1%	.344	3.44	25.1%	13.3%	182	-0.20	2.79	386	84
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	84
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	82
Jake Rice L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	27	SU	3.75	21.8%	13.8%	1.4%	.273	5.90	16.5%	0.9%	54	+2.15	3.16	199	81
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	80
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	80
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	80
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	80
Brendan Cellucci L 2024 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	26.3%	16.6%	1.8%	.288	4.38	21.7%	9.6%	79	+0.40	3.98	288	80
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	79
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	79
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	78
C.J. Widger L 2024 · 4.21 FIP	25	SU	4.21	26.0%	16.0%	2.3%	.258	5.75	18.1%	-0.7%	57	+1.54	3.83	105	78
Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 3.73 FIP	27	SU	3.73	24.6%	14.1%	1.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	78
Kelly Wunsch L 2000 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	19.7%	10.8%	1.5%	.261	4.17	17.6%	5.9%	90	+0.52	3.36	175	78
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	77
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	77
Jordan Harrison L 2018 · 3.87 FIP	27	SU	3.87	19.4%	14.3%	1.1%	.246	3.80	19.1%	9.4%	49	-0.07	3.80	244	77
Riley Martin L 2024 · 3.73 FIP	26	SU	3.73	28.2%	14.2%	2.2%	.336	3.23	26.4%	14.3%	64	-0.50	3.23	266	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	24.2%	14.4%	0.93	4.55
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Chad Fox ('09)	1.1	57	25.8%	13.2%	0.87	3.79
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*