Jack Sellinger
P
Beloit Sky Carp
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'1" / 230 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.0%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%12.2%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL2525
CMD5050
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 32 | 0 | 43 | 186 | 63 | 19 | 1 | 26.4% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 2.70 | 2.71 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 40 | 0 | 67 | 278 | 89 | 39 | 1 | 24.6% | 17.0% | 0.5% | 2.29 | 3.45 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 52 | 28 | 5 | 24.6% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 51 | 27 | 5 | 24.5% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 50 | 26 | 5 | 24.3% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 4.44 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 49 | 25 | 5 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 47 | 24 | 5 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 45 | 24 | 5 | 23.7% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 43 | 23 | 5 | 23.4% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 40 | 22 | 5 | 23.1% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 22.8% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 35 | 21 | 5 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 22.0% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 0 | 113 | 475 | 120 | 66 | 3 | 25.4% | 13.9% | 0.7% | 2.40 | 3.13 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 213 | 117 | 5 | 25.4% | 13.9% | 0.7% | 2.40 | 3.13 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Sellinger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 24.6% | 13.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.46 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 147 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 94 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 88 |
| Jake Diekman L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 85 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 84 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 83 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .368 | 3.62 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.27 | 3.02 | 153 | 83 |
| Andrew Magno L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 3.23 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 66 | -1.27 | 3.23 | 275 | 83 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.59 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.75 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +2.16 | 3.29 | 142 | 82 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 82 |
| Andy Oliver L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.6% | .283 | 4.60 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.45 | 3.97 | 165 | 82 |
| Mitch Horacek L 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 23.8% | 11.6% | 1.2% | .313 | 4.68 | 20.6% | 7.8% | 64 | +1.44 | 3.24 | 466 | 82 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 82 |
| Conor Lillis-White L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 182 | 81 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 81 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 81 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.09 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.3% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 81 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.04 | 194 | 81 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .226 | 5.06 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.32 | 2.02 | 280 | 81 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.54 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.74 | 3.00 | 226 | 81 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 26.3% | 16.6% | 1.8% | .288 | 4.87 | 21.0% | 3.5% | 27 | +0.89 | 3.98 | 236 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.