Riley Martin
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 28
LHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION11 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%28.0%
BB%16.0%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+2.4 (55%)
CU (31%)
SL-1.0 (15%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 8 | 0 | 15 | 66 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.5% | 17.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.52 | 6.77 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 8 | 0 | 15 | 66 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 31.8% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 4.5% | 5.52 | 4.94 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 83 | 351 | 120 | 43 | 4 | 3% | 2.7 | 23.6% | 14.8% | 8.8% | 1.9% | 3.38 | 4.01 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 83 | 351 | 120 | 43 | 4 | 3% | 2.7 | 34.2% | 12.3% | 21.9% | 1.1% | 3.38 | 2.39 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 58 | 267 | 95 | 43 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.3% | 17.4% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 4.20 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 58 | 267 | 95 | 43 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 35.6% | 16.1% | 19.5% | 2.2% | 4.32 | 3.39 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 43 | 0 | 60 | 278 | 91 | 44 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.8% | 16.6% | 12.2% | 2.0% | 4.48 | 3.90 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 43 | 0 | 60 | 278 | 91 | 44 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.7% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 2.2% | 4.48 | 3.56 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 47 | 1 | 64 | 261 | 80 | 35 | 4 | 2% | 1.4 | 27.0% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | 2.69 | 3.35 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 47 | 1 | 64 | 261 | 80 | 35 | 4 | 2% | 1.4 | 30.7% | 13.4% | 17.2% | 1.5% | 2.69 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 9 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 22% | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | 2.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 45 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 16.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 45 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 16.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 50 | 207 | 58 | 30 | 6 | — | — | 28.2% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.44 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 47 | 197 | 58 | 30 | 6 | — | — | 29.6% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 77 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 71 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 73 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 67 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 161 | 1 | 169 | 708 | 196 | 104 | 19 | 1% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.11 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 1 | 200 | 839 | 233 | 123 | 23 | 1% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 182 | 4 | 291 | 1268 | 340 | 197 | 29 | 2% | 1.6 | 26.8% | 15.6% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 4.04 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 3 | 200 | 871 | 234 | 136 | 20 | 2% | 1.6 | 26.8% | 15.6% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Martin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 28.0% | 16.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.56 | 27.3% | 12.5% | 128 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 81 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 77 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 77 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 77 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 76 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 75 |
| Rex Brothers L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.02 | 27.2% | 23.5% | 0.5% | .286 | 4.09 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 64 | +0.07 | 3.10 | 205 | 74 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 72 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.24 | 27.0% | 16.2% | 4.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 280 | 71 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 71 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 70 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 70 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.82 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 70 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.91 | 26.4% | 11.5% | 4.7% | .311 | 4.24 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 141 | -0.67 | 3.94 | 470 | 69 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .329 | 4.44 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.24 | 2.66 | 230 | 69 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 246 | 69 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 68 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 68 |
| Ben Bowden L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 28.3% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .325 | 4.39 | 23.5% | 12.7% | 101 | -0.06 | 2.89 | 374 | 68 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 27.5% | 15.1% | 1.03 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |