Riley Martin — OGILVIE

Riley Martin P Chicago Cubs

Age 28 LHP 6'1" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION11 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%26.5%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF6055

CTRL—40

CMD3540

K†6060

FB+2.4 (55%)

CU (31%)

SL-1.0 (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	8	0	15	66	21	10	3	0%	1.8	23.5%	17.9%	5.7%	6.0%	5.52	6.69	—
2021	23	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	8	0	15	66	21	10	3	0%	1.8	31.8%	15.2%	16.7%	4.5%	5.52	4.94	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	83	351	120	43	4	3%	2.7	23.6%	14.8%	8.8%	1.8%	3.38	3.95	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	1	83	351	120	43	4	3%	2.7	34.2%	12.3%	21.9%	1.1%	3.38	2.39	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	267	95	43	6	0%	1.3	28.9%	16.6%	12.4%	2.5%	4.32	4.14	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	267	95	43	6	0%	1.3	28.9%	16.6%	12.4%	2.5%	4.32	4.14	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	58	267	95	43	6	0%	1.3	35.6%	16.1%	19.5%	2.2%	4.32	3.39	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	43	0	60	278	91	44	6	0%	1.4	27.2%	14.2%	12.9%	2.2%	4.48	3.82	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	43	0	60	278	91	44	6	0%	1.4	27.2%	14.2%	12.9%	2.2%	4.48	3.82	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	43	0	60	278	91	44	6	0%	1.4	32.7%	15.8%	16.9%	2.2%	4.48	3.56	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	47	1	64	261	80	35	4	2%	1.4	25.4%	12.1%	13.4%	1.5%	2.69	3.30	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	47	1	64	261	80	35	4	2%	1.4	25.4%	12.1%	13.4%	1.5%	2.69	3.30	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	47	1	64	261	80	35	4	2%	1.4	30.7%	13.4%	17.2%	1.5%	2.69	3.05	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	1	8	31	10	2	1	12%	1.0	32.3%	6.5%	25.8%	3.2%	2.16	2.98	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	9	2	11	45	13	4	2	22%	1.3	—	—	—	—	2.38	—	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	9	2	11	45	13	4	2	22%	1.3	—	—	—	—	2.38	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	CHC	1	1	3	14	3	2	1	100%	3.0	21.4%	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	3.00	7.02	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	CHC	8	1	8	31	10	2	1	12%	1.0	32.3%	6.5%	25.8%	3.2%	2.16	2.96	—
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	CHC	8	1	8	31	10	2	1	12%	1.0	32.3%	6.5%	25.8%	3.2%	2.16	2.96	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CHC	4	0	4	16	4	2	0	0%	1.0	26.5%	14.2%	12.3%	2.5%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	CHC	4	0	4	17	4	2	0	0%	1.0	26.5%	14.2%	12.3%	2.5%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	15	61	17	6	2	—	—	28.3%	10.3%	18.0%	3.9%	2.89	1.12	+0.7
FULL	28	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	12	52	17	6	2	—	—	33.6%	12.3%	21.4%	4.7%	3.60	4.37	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CHC	63	0	66	280	74	37	8	0%	1.1	26.5%	13.4%	13.1%	2.7%	4.37	4.42	+0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	59	0	62	263	68	35	8	0%	1.1	25.9%	13.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.50	4.59	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	CHC	60	0	63	266	70	36	7	0%	1.1	26.5%	13.4%	13.1%	2.7%	4.37	4.42	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	56	0	59	249	64	33	7	0%	1.1	25.9%	13.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.50	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	1	134	562	149	73	16	1%	1.0	26.5%	13.0%	13.5%	2.8%	4.29	4.05	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	1	200	838	222	109	24	1%	1.0	26.5%	13.0%	13.5%	2.8%	4.29	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		182	4	291	1268	331	183	29	2%	1.6	26.1%	14.4%	11.6%	2.3%	3.71	3.98	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		125	3	200	871	227	126	20	2%	1.6	26.1%	14.4%	11.6%	2.3%	3.71	3.98	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	26.5%	14.2%	2.5%	—	4.50	26.2%	12.8%	128	+0.11	—	—	—
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.36	455	84
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	79
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	79
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	78
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	78
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	78
Kevin Chapman L 2016 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	23.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.348	4.08	19.2%	8.0%	39	+0.73	3.01	153	77
Jeff Beliveau L 2016 · 3.19 FIP	29	SU	3.19	26.2%	13.5%	1.1%	.220	4.25	24.7%	12.5%	92	+1.06	3.19	137	74
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	74
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	73
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	72
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	72
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	72
James Reeves L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	27.0%	16.2%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.02	280	71
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	70
Rex Brothers L 2015 · 4.05 FIP	27	SU	4.05	27.2%	23.5%	0.5%	.286	4.05	26.4%	9.1%	64	+0.00	3.10	205	70
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	70
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	70
Jordan Mills L 2019 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	23.2%	9.3%	1.8%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	210	70
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	26.3%	13.6%	1.04	4.42
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64