Riley Martin
P
Chicago Cubs
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 28
LHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
xFIP2.41
SIERA2.04
K%26.2%
BB%13.3%
K-BB%12.9%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
OFP—40
STUF6055
CTRL—40
CMD3540
K†6060
FB+2.4 (55%)
CU (31%)
SL-1.0 (15%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 8 | 0 | 15 | 66 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 23.5% | 17.9% | 6.0% | 5.52 | 6.68 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 31 | 1 | 83 | 351 | 120 | 43 | 4 | 23.6% | 14.8% | 1.8% | 3.38 | 3.96 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 44 | 0 | 58 | 267 | 95 | 43 | 6 | 29.3% | 17.4% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 43 | 0 | 60 | 278 | 91 | 44 | 6 | 28.8% | 16.6% | 2.2% | 4.48 | 3.98 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 47 | 1 | 64 | 261 | 80 | 35 | 4 | 27.0% | 14.1% | 1.5% | 2.69 | 3.42 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 5 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.23 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 26 | — | 26 | 112 | 30 | 16 | 3 | 26.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 34 | 140 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 26.3% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 3.73 | 3.46 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 66 | 36 | 6 | 26.2% | 14.1% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 63 | 34 | 7 | 25.8% | 13.9% | 2.6% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 60 | 33 | 6 | 25.4% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 57 | 31 | 6 | 25.1% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 54 | 30 | 6 | 24.8% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.69 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 51 | 29 | 6 | 24.4% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 47 | 28 | 6 | 24.0% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 43 | 27 | 6 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 178 | 4 | 287 | 1251 | 334 | 195 | 28 | 26.7% | 15.6% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 4.05 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 124 | 3 | 200 | 872 | 233 | 136 | 20 | 26.7% | 15.6% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 4.05 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Martin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 26.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | — | 4.51 | 25.8% | 11.9% | 175 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 81 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 79 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 79 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 76 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 76 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 76 |
| Rex Brothers L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 27.2% | 23.5% | 0.5% | .286 | 4.08 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 64 | +0.04 | 3.16 | 205 | 75 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 75 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.05 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 246 | 73 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 73 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 73 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 72 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.73 | 3.02 | 153 | 71 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 71 |
| Trey Jeans L 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 71 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.65 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 203 | 70 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.06 | 27.0% | 16.2% | 4.0% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 280 | 70 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.58 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 70 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.08 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 70 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.