Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 63 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 90 | 46 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 17.2% | 9.8% | 0.4% | 2.25 | 3.20 | +1.2 |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 63 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 90 | 46 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.2% | 16.0% | 15.3% | 0.3% | 2.25 | 2.67 | +1.6 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 78 | 0 | 79 | 327 | 122 | 44 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.9% | 14.1% | 22.9% | 0.3% | 2.75 | 1.95 | +2.8 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 78 | 0 | 79 | 327 | 122 | 44 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.3% | 13.5% | 23.9% | 0.3% | 2.75 | 1.84 | +2.9 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 68 | 1 | 68 | 295 | 79 | 36 | 5 | 1% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 1.9% | 2.91 | 3.42 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 68 | 1 | 68 | 295 | 79 | 36 | 5 | 1% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 1.7% | 2.91 | 3.32 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 61 | 0 | 56 | 245 | 60 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 61 | 0 | 56 | 245 | 60 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.20 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 5 levels | 60 | 1 | 52 | 241 | 69 | 30 | 11 | 2% | 0.9 | 24.4% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 6.0% | 5.54 | 5.78 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 5 levels | 60 | 1 | 52 | 241 | 69 | 30 | 11 | 2% | 0.9 | 28.6% | 12.4% | 16.2% | 4.6% | 5.54 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 52 | 215 | 80 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.7% | 14.0% | 19.8% | 4.3% | 3.44 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 52 | 215 | 80 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 37.2% | 13.5% | 23.7% | 4.7% | 3.44 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 70 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 15.2% | 12.6% | 1.8% | 3.00 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 70 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.4% | 13.9% | 16.5% | 1.3% | 3.00 | 3.01 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 13 | 82 | 350 | 66 | 51 | 12 | 76% | 4.8 | 17.9% | 15.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 5.31 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 13 | 82 | 350 | 66 | 51 | 12 | 76% | 4.8 | 18.9% | 14.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 34 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 31 | 4 | 55 | 247 | 67 | 34 | 3 | 13% | 1.8 | 23.9% | 14.5% | 9.4% | 1.6% | 3.74 | 3.77 | — |
| 2024 | 34 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 31 | 4 | 55 | 247 | 67 | 34 | 3 | 13% | 1.8 | 27.1% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 1.2% | 3.74 | 3.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 58 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 14.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.91 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 48 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.14 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | TEX | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 39 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 15.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.50 | 5.74 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.14 | 5.31 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.6% | 15.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.50 | 5.74 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 291 | 0 | 283 | 1244 | 350 | 162 | 31 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 3.74 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 206 | 0 | 200 | 881 | 248 | 115 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 469 | 19 | 566 | 2438 | 654 | 346 | 59 | 4% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 3.55 | 3.96 | +9.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 7 | 200 | 862 | 231 | 122 | 21 | 4% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 3.55 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Barraclough (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 22.9% | 14.2% | 2.8% | — | 5.51 | 21.2% | 6.0% | 97 | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Fisher R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 79 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 79 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 76 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 76 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 75 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 74 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 73 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 72 |
| Radhames Liz R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 71 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 71 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 70 |
| Jason Motte R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 70 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 69 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 67 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 64 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.26 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 212 | 64 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 63 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 6.00 FIP | 35 | SU | 6.00 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 6.1% | .385 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 150 | 62 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2024 · 5.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.22 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 269 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 52 | 21.8% | 14.8% | 1.25 | 5.15 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |