Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 43.8% | 12.5% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 0.99 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 43.8% | 12.5% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 0.92 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 12 | 12 | 60 | 255 | 67 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 4.20 | 4.86 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 12 | 12 | 60 | 255 | 67 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.3% | 7.8% | 18.4% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 3.60 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 4.50 | -1.12 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 4.50 | -0.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 24 | 0 | 49 | 197 | 62 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 2.0 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 2.94 | 5.42 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.41 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 91 | 374 | 102 | 41 | 12 | — | — | 27.4% | 11.0% | 16.3% | 3.3% | 3.62 | 4.96 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.02 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 171 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 108 | 0 | 113 | 478 | 112 | 43 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 3.97 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 76 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 42 | 12 | 115 | 476 | 107 | 55 | 19 | 29% | 2.7 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 3.69 | 4.86 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 21 | 200 | 830 | 187 | 95 | 33 | 29% | 2.7 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 3.69 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Emener (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.32 | 23.4% | 14.4% | 127 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 85 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 83 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 83 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 81 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 201 | 80 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.75 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.21 | 3.54 | 146 | 80 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 79 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.13 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.47 | 3.66 | 128 | 79 |
| Christian Jones L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.30 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 1.5% | .319 | 4.09 | 15.0% | 3.7% | 89 | +0.79 | 3.30 | 161 | 79 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.39 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .360 | 3.11 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 91 | -0.28 | 2.07 | 246 | 79 |
| Greg Nappo L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 78 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .261 | 4.93 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.70 | 4.19 | 201 | 78 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 78 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .316 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.21 | 3.49 | 311 | 78 |
| Ben Griset L 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.43 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .255 | 3.64 | 14.5% | 3.6% | 49 | +0.21 | 2.91 | 148 | 78 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 78 |
| Josh Dye L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.57 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.40 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 79 | +1.83 | 2.81 | 238 | 78 |
| Russell Smith L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.14 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 4.3% | .343 | 3.89 | 19.0% | 5.1% | 53 | -1.25 | 3.89 | 175 | 77 |
| Emilio Marquez L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .271 | 4.62 | 22.8% | 13.1% | 31 | +0.19 | 1.33 | 244 | 77 |
| Kade Bragg L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 42 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 1.20 | 4.36 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |