Paul Fry
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 34
LHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 127
ERA4.77
FIP4.79
K%17.8%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%7.3%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.6
Whiff%
p6527.6%
K%
p5423.0%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
FB+0.8
SL-1.8
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 80 | 330 | 113 | 22 | 0 | 2% | 1.6 | 26.9% | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 2.02 | 1.78 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 80 | 330 | 113 | 22 | 0 | 2% | 1.6 | 34.2% | 6.7% | 27.6% | 0.0% | 2.02 | 1.10 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 48 | 1 | 55 | 244 | 65 | 29 | 1 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 0.6% | 2.78 | 3.01 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 48 | 1 | 55 | 244 | 65 | 29 | 1 | 2% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 11.9% | 14.8% | 0.4% | 2.78 | 2.55 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 3 | 60 | 272 | 72 | 30 | 6 | 9% | 1.8 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 4.0% | 4.33 | 5.00 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 3 | 60 | 272 | 72 | 30 | 6 | 9% | 1.8 | 26.5% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 4.33 | 3.50 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 63 | 1 | 80 | 333 | 93 | 30 | 5 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 15.9% | 1.6% | 3.26 | 3.05 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 63 | 1 | 80 | 333 | 93 | 30 | 5 | 2% | 1.3 | 27.9% | 9.0% | 18.9% | 1.5% | 3.26 | 2.71 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 58 | 263 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 5.86 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 58 | 263 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.1% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 5.86 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 22 | 0 | 22 | 98 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.6% | 9.2% | 20.4% | 2.8% | 2.45 | 3.33 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 22 | 0 | 22 | 98 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.6% | 9.2% | 20.4% | 3.1% | 2.45 | 3.46 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 55 | 255 | 67 | 44 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.9% | 16.3% | 11.6% | 1.3% | 6.34 | 3.52 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 55 | 255 | 67 | 44 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.3% | 17.3% | 9.0% | 1.2% | 6.34 | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 42 | 192 | 42 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 12.9% | 7.2% | 1.7% | 4.97 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 42 | 192 | 42 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 1.6% | 4.97 | 3.75 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 56 | 254 | 67 | 32 | 6 | 2% | 1.2 | 23.0% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.62 | — |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 56 | 254 | 67 | 32 | 6 | 2% | 1.2 | 26.4% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 3.82 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 51 | 0 | 74 | 326 | 57 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | 4.76 | 3.90 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 51 | 0 | 74 | 326 | 57 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 4.76 | 3.75 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | SD | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SD | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 40 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.13 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SD | 47 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 33 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 11.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.30 | 5.50 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | SD | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 27 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.66 | 5.90 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SD | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.13 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.8% | 11.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.30 | 5.50 | — |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.66 | 5.90 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 191 | 0 | 180 | 801 | 196 | 97 | 15 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.5% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 4.82 | 3.63 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 212 | 0 | 200 | 888 | 217 | 108 | 17 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.5% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 4.82 | 3.63 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 487 | 7 | 582 | 2567 | 592 | 286 | 48 | 1% | 1.2 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 1.9% | 4.10 | 3.59 | +12.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 2 | 200 | 882 | 203 | 98 | 16 | 1% | 1.2 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 1.9% | 4.10 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Paul Fry (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 2.7% | — | 5.48 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 148 | +0.69 | — | — | — |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.56 | 17.2% | 10.5% | 49 | -0.33 | 3.05 | 117 | 80 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 127 | 79 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 77 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.43 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.09 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.34 | 2.72 | 166 | 76 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 181 | 75 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 190 | 75 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.65 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 5.1% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.32 | 182 | 74 |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 73 |
| James Jones L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.88 | 14.0% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 127 | 73 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.69 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .269 | 2.57 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.12 | 2.18 | 195 | 70 |
| Adam Loewen L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.13 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.5% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 70 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | .276 | 3.68 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -0.85 | 2.22 | 405 | 70 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.97 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 280 | 69 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.07 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 296 | 69 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 225 | 68 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.04 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.39 | 259 | 65 |
| Boone Logan L 2025 · 5.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.55 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 5.4% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 113 | 64 |
| Dana Eveland L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.91 | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 129 | 59 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 549 | 58 |
| Blaine Hardy L 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.38 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 4.7% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.76 | 417 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 16.5% | 11.3% | 1.24 | 5.13 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |