Paul Fry
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.2
WAR
Age 34
LHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP3.95
SIERA3.97
K%20.2%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%10.7%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL2525
CMD5050
K†4545
FB Velo
p1091.6
Whiff%
p6527.6%
K%
p5423.0%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
FB+0.8
SL-1.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Jackson Generals | 50 | 1 | 80 | 330 | 113 | 22 | 0 | 26.9% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 2.02 | 1.78 | +3.0 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 48 | 1 | 55 | 244 | 65 | 29 | 1 | 23.4% | 12.5% | 0.5% | 2.78 | 2.98 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 33 | 3 | 60 | 272 | 72 | 30 | 6 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 4.33 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 63 | 1 | 80 | 333 | 93 | 30 | 5 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 3.26 | 3.07 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 67 | 0 | 58 | 263 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 5.86 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 22 | 0 | 22 | 98 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 29.6% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 2.45 | 3.50 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 63 | 0 | 55 | 255 | 67 | 44 | 3 | 27.9% | 16.3% | 1.2% | 6.34 | 3.45 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 42 | 0 | 42 | 192 | 42 | 24 | 3 | 20.1% | 12.9% | 1.8% | 4.97 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 48 | 1 | 56 | 254 | 67 | 32 | 6 | 23.0% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 51 | 0 | 74 | 326 | 57 | 28 | 6 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 4.76 | 3.97 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SD | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 46 | 26 | 7 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SD | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 41 | 24 | 7 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 487 | 7 | 582 | 2567 | 592 | 286 | 46 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 1.8% | 4.10 | 3.55 | +11.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 2 | 200 | 882 | 203 | 98 | 16 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 1.8% | 4.10 | 3.55 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Paul Fry (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.84 | 18.6% | 8.0% | 111 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 77 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.48 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 3.98 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.50 | 2.66 | 166 | 76 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 76 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.75 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.42 | 17.2% | 10.5% | 49 | -0.33 | 2.97 | 117 | 75 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 75 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 154 | 75 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.59 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 190 | 74 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.97 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 181 | 73 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 73 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.83 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 127 | 73 |
| Colt Hynes L 2024 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 73 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.59 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 5.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.32 | 182 | 72 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.57 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | .276 | 3.54 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -1.03 | 2.22 | 405 | 72 |
| Luke Westphal L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.42 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .302 | 5.50 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.08 | 2.97 | 294 | 72 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.84 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.8% | .269 | 2.55 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.29 | 2.19 | 195 | 72 |
| Adam Loewen L 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.20 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.6% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 71 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.02 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 296 | 69 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.89 | 16.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 424 | 69 |
| James Jones L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.89 | 14.0% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 127 | 68 |
| Boone Logan L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.22 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 4.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 113 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.