Paul Fry — OGILVIE

Paul Fry P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 34 LHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.72

K%17.0%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD5050

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p6527.6%

p5423.0%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

FB+0.8

SL-1.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	80	330	113	22	0	2%	1.6	26.9%	7.5%	19.4%	0.0%	2.02	1.78	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	80	330	113	22	0	2%	1.6	34.2%	6.7%	27.6%	0.0%	2.02	1.10	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	48	1	55	244	65	29	1	2%	1.1	23.4%	12.5%	11.0%	0.5%	2.78	2.98	—
2016	24	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	48	1	55	244	65	29	1	2%	1.1	26.6%	11.9%	14.8%	0.4%	2.78	2.55	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	3	60	272	72	30	6	9%	1.8	21.2%	11.7%	9.5%	3.4%	4.33	4.66	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	3	60	272	72	30	6	9%	1.8	26.5%	11.0%	15.4%	2.2%	4.33	3.50	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	63	1	80	333	93	30	5	2%	1.3	25.3%	9.4%	15.9%	1.6%	3.26	3.05	+1.4
2018	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	63	1	80	333	93	30	5	2%	1.3	27.9%	9.0%	18.9%	1.5%	3.26	2.71	+1.8
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	67	0	58	263	58	29	8	0%	0.9	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	2.5%	5.86	4.03	+0.4
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	67	0	58	263	58	29	8	0%	0.9	22.1%	11.0%	11.0%	3.0%	5.86	4.39	+0.1
2020	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	22	0	22	98	29	9	3	0%	1.0	29.6%	9.2%	20.4%	2.8%	2.45	3.28	+0.3
2020	28	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	22	0	22	98	29	9	3	0%	1.0	29.6%	9.2%	20.4%	3.1%	2.45	3.46	+0.3
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	55	255	67	44	3	0%	0.9	27.9%	16.3%	11.6%	1.3%	6.34	3.50	+0.7
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	55	255	67	44	3	0%	0.9	26.3%	17.3%	9.0%	1.2%	6.34	3.77	+0.5
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	42	192	42	24	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.9%	7.2%	1.7%	4.97	3.99	+0.3
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	42	192	42	24	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	1.6%	4.97	3.75	+0.4
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	56	254	67	32	6	2%	1.2	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	2.9%	4.37	4.32	—
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	56	254	67	32	6	2%	1.2	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	2.9%	4.37	4.32	—
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	1	56	254	67	32	6	2%	1.2	26.4%	12.6%	13.8%	2.4%	4.37	3.82	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	51	0	74	326	57	28	6	0%	1.4	14.5%	7.7%	6.8%	1.9%	4.76	3.88	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	51	0	74	326	57	28	6	0%	1.4	14.5%	7.7%	6.8%	1.9%	4.76	3.88	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	51	0	74	326	57	28	6	0%	1.4	17.5%	8.6%	8.9%	1.8%	4.76	3.75	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			188	0	177	788	194	96	15	0%	0.9	24.6%	12.2%	12.4%	1.9%	4.82	3.64	+1.9
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	SD	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.0%	9.3%	7.7%	2.7%	4.71	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	SD	53	0	56	235	38	23	7	0%	1.0	16.1%	9.9%	6.2%	3.1%	4.92	5.05	-0.3
2028	36	MLB MLE	SD	47	0	49	208	31	22	7	0%	1.0	15.0%	10.5%	4.5%	3.4%	5.22	5.42	-0.5
2029	37	MLB MLE	SD	41	0	43	181	25	20	7	0%	1.0	14.0%	11.2%	2.8%	3.8%	5.58	5.82	-0.6
2027	35	MLB CTX	SD	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	16.1%	9.9%	6.2%	3.1%	4.92	5.05	-0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.0%	10.5%	4.5%	3.4%	5.22	5.42	—
2029	37	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.0%	11.2%	2.8%	3.8%	5.58	5.82	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	0	180	801	196	97	15	0%	0.9	24.5%	12.1%	12.3%	1.9%	4.82	3.63	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		212	0	200	888	217	108	17	0%	0.9	24.5%	12.1%	12.3%	1.9%	4.82	3.63	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		487	7	582	2567	586	277	45	1%	1.2	22.8%	10.8%	12.0%	1.8%	4.10	3.51	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	2	200	882	201	95	16	1%	1.2	22.8%	10.8%	12.0%	1.8%	4.10	3.51	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Fry (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	17.0%	9.3%	2.7%	—	5.40	15.1%	4.7%	148	+0.68	—	—	—
Heriberto Ruelas L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	34	SU	3.75	15.0%	8.9%	1.4%	.310	3.42	17.2%	10.5%	49	-0.33	2.95	117	80
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	79
Dan Runzler L 2019 · 4.84 FIP	34	SU	4.84	16.0%	13.0%	2.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	127	77
James Jones L 2023 · 4.71 FIP	34	SU	4.71	13.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	127	74
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	74
Tommy Layne L 2019 · 5.60 FIP	34	SU	5.60	18.4%	10.1%	5.1%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	1.32	182	74
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	74
Jerry Blevins L 2018 · 4.43 FIP	34	SU	4.43	21.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.250	4.09	26.2%	16.3%	32	-0.34	2.71	166	73
Mike Dunn L 2019 · 5.02 FIP	34	SU	5.02	20.0%	8.0%	4.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	181	71
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	71
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	152	69
Tony Sipp L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	34	SU	4.92	23.6%	8.5%	5.0%	.269	2.59	24.9%	15.9%	60	-2.33	2.22	195	67
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	67
Adam Loewen L 2017 · 4.22 FIP	33	SU	4.22	23.4%	17.4%	1.6%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	176	66
Tony Watson L 2019 · 4.52 FIP	34	SU	4.52	17.7%	4.8%	4.2%	.276	3.67	19.8%	13.1%	75	-0.85	2.21	405	66
Ryan Buchter L 2021 · 5.24 FIP	34	SU	5.24	22.9%	13.2%	4.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	296	65
Sean Doolittle L 2021 · 4.00 FIP	34	SU	4.00	23.8%	9.0%	3.2%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	1.39	259	63
Boone Logan L 2018 · 5.29 FIP	33	SU	5.29	24.1%	12.1%	4.9%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	113	63
Dana Eveland L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	33	SW	4.67	14.7%	4.7%	4.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.42	129	62
Jo-Jo Reyes L 2017 · 3.92 FIP	32	SU	3.92	13.5%	2.5%	3.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	52	15.7%	10.1%	1.24	5.06
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38