Paul Fry

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 35 LHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	30	MIX2 levels	42	0	42	4.97	3.75	21.9%	12.5%	0.4	K 20.1% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.99
2023	31	MIX2 levels	48	1	56	4.37	3.82	26.4%	12.6%	—	K 22.4% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.26
2024	32	AAASD	51	0	74	4.76	3.75	17.5%	8.6%	—	K 15.0% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.84
2025	33	No MLB games played
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	35	MLBSD	6	0	6	4.39	4.44	21.5%	9.6%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBSD	—	—	0	4.64	4.81	20.5%	10.2%	—
2029PROJMLE	37	MLBSD	—	—	0	4.98	5.21	19.4%	10.8%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

K%54

xwOBA vs21

FB Velo10

CompsHeriberto Ruelas (age 35) · Brian Shouse (age 35) · Juan Pablo Perez (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 118

ERA4.39

FIP4.44

K%21.5%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p6527.6%

p5423.0%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	80	330	113	22	0	2%	1.6	26.9%	7.5%	19.4%	0.0%	2.02	1.78	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	80	330	113	22	0	2%	1.6	34.2%	6.7%	27.6%	0.0%	2.02	1.10	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	48	1	55	244	65	29	1	2%	1.1	23.4%	12.5%	11.0%	0.5%	2.78	2.98	—
2016	24	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	48	1	55	244	65	29	1	2%	1.1	26.6%	11.9%	14.8%	0.4%	2.78	2.55	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	3	60	272	72	30	6	9%	1.8	21.2%	11.7%	9.5%	3.4%	4.33	4.66	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	3	60	272	72	30	6	9%	1.8	26.5%	11.0%	15.4%	2.2%	4.33	3.50	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	63	1	80	333	93	30	5	2%	1.3	25.3%	9.4%	15.9%	1.6%	3.26	3.05	+1.4
2018	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	63	1	80	333	93	30	5	2%	1.3	27.9%	9.0%	18.9%	1.5%	3.26	2.71	+1.8
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	67	0	58	263	58	29	8	0%	0.9	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	2.5%	5.86	4.03	+0.4
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	67	0	58	263	58	29	8	0%	0.9	22.1%	11.0%	11.0%	3.0%	5.86	4.39	+0.1
2020	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	22	0	22	98	29	9	3	0%	1.0	29.6%	9.2%	20.4%	2.8%	2.45	3.28	+0.3
2020	28	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	22	0	22	98	29	9	3	0%	1.0	29.6%	9.2%	20.4%	3.1%	2.45	3.46	+0.3
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	55	255	67	44	3	0%	0.9	27.9%	16.3%	11.6%	1.3%	6.34	3.50	+0.7
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	55	255	67	44	3	0%	0.9	26.3%	17.3%	9.0%	1.2%	6.34	3.77	+0.5
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	42	192	42	24	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.9%	7.2%	1.7%	4.97	3.99	+0.3
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	42	192	42	24	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	1.6%	4.97	3.75	+0.4
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	56	254	67	32	6	2%	1.2	22.4%	11.6%	10.9%	2.9%	4.37	4.26	—
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	1	56	254	67	32	6	2%	1.2	26.4%	12.6%	13.8%	2.4%	4.37	3.82	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	51	0	74	326	57	28	6	0%	1.4	15.0%	7.7%	7.3%	1.9%	4.76	3.84	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	51	0	74	326	57	28	6	0%	1.4	15.0%	7.7%	7.3%	1.9%	4.76	3.84	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	51	0	74	326	57	28	6	0%	1.4	17.5%	8.6%	8.9%	1.8%	4.76	3.75	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			188	0	177	788	194	96	15	0%	0.9	24.6%	12.2%	12.4%	1.9%	4.82	3.64	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	SD	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	2.9%	4.39	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	SD	40	0	42	176	36	18	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.2%	10.3%	3.2%	4.64	4.81	-0.1
2029	37	MLB MLE	SD	29	0	30	128	25	14	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	3.6%	4.98	5.21	-0.2
2030	38	MLB MLE	SD	22	0	23	98	18	11	4	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.6%	6.7%	4.1%	5.38	5.65	-0.3
2028	36	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	10.2%	10.3%	3.2%	4.64	4.81	—
2029	37	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	3.6%	4.98	5.21	—
2030	38	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	11.6%	6.7%	4.1%	5.38	5.65	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	0	178	790	194	96	15	0%	0.9	24.6%	12.2%	12.4%	1.9%	4.82	3.61	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		212	0	200	889	218	108	17	0%	0.9	24.6%	12.2%	12.4%	1.9%	4.82	3.61	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		487	7	582	2567	589	277	45	1%	1.2	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	1.8%	4.10	3.49	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	2	200	882	203	95	16	1%	1.2	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	1.8%	4.10	3.49	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 74 IPFIP 3.72 → 3.84 (+0.12)K% 17.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.48%	—	×0.860	15.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.59%	—	×0.900	7.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷1.078	×1.100	1.88%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 55 IPFIP 3.85 → 4.26 (+0.41)K% 26.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.10%	—	×0.860	22.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.85%	—	×0.900	11.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷0.916	×1.100	2.89%

Result: FIP 3.85 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 29 IPFIP 3.58 → 3.99 (+0.41)K% 21.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.37%	—	×0.880	18.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.45%	—	×1.050	12.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.53%	÷0.965	×1.100	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 8 IPFIP 4.47 → 4.79 (+0.32)K% 17.5% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.50%	—	×0.880	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.50%	—	×1.050	23.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.009	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.47 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 23 IPFIP 2.23 → 2.72 (+0.49)K% 29.9% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.90%	—	×0.880	26.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.12%	—	×1.050	4.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷0.964	×1.100	2.35%

Result: FIP 2.23 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABowie Baysox · 19 IPFIP 3.26 → 4.22 (+0.95)K% 36.4% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.810	29.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.100	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.060	×1.200	2.94%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANorfolk Tides · 48 IPFIP 3.95 → 4.66 (+0.71)K% 24.1% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.11%	—	×0.880	21.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.16%	—	×1.050	11.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷0.866	×1.100	3.40%

Result: FIP 3.95 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABowie Baysox · 12 IPFIP 1.25 → 1.99 (+0.73)K% 37.5% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.810	30.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×1.100	11.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.998	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.25 → 1.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Fry (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	21.5%	9.6%	2.9%	—	5.14	19.6%	8.9%	95	+0.70	—	—	—
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	79
Brian Shouse L 2004 · 3.47 FIP	35	SU	3.47	18.5%	8.2%	1.6%	.250	3.57	14.8%	8.9%	139	+0.10	2.32	339	76
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	74
John Bale L 2009 · 4.31 FIP	35	SU	4.31	17.6%	11.8%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	73
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	71
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	70
Hideki Okajima L 2010 · 4.27 FIP	34	SU	4.27	15.5%	7.0%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	238	68
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	67
Tim Byrdak L 2009 · 5.07 FIP	35	SU	5.07	22.2%	13.8%	3.8%	.185	3.48	23.8%	13.5%	107	-1.59	2.85	320	66
Raul Valdes L 2013 · 4.07 FIP	35	SU	4.07	24.3%	5.3%	4.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	160	65
Scott Rice L 2015 · 3.67 FIP	33	SU	3.67	22.9%	17.2%	0.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	59
Luke Westphal L 2024 · 5.19 FIP	35	SW	5.19	15.7%	16.4%	2.4%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	50
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	41
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	39
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	39
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	39
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	38
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	38
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	38
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	37

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	42	22.7%	11.4%	0.98	4.77
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*