Joe Kemlage
P
Aberdeen IronBirds
Age 27
LHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%22.9%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 5 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 0.57 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 5 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 0.26 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 7 | 63 | 271 | 73 | 31 | 5 | 44% | 4.0 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 3.41 | 4.35 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 7 | 63 | 271 | 73 | 31 | 5 | 44% | 4.0 | 26.9% | 11.4% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 3.41 | 3.29 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 65 | 296 | 68 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.6% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.85 | 5.53 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 65 | 296 | 68 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 5.85 | 4.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 42 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 38 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 63 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.26 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 82 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 57 | 7 | 134 | 597 | 114 | 71 | 19 | 12% | 2.4 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.75 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 10 | 200 | 889 | 169 | 106 | 28 | 12% | 2.4 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Kemlage (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.62 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 125 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 80 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 78 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 78 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 77 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 77 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.29 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | .285 | 6.48 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.19 | 3.40 | 144 | 77 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 77 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 76 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.3% | .367 | 4.30 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 95 | +1.04 | 3.26 | 180 | 76 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 75 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 74 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 73 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 73 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 73 |
| Conor Lillis-White L 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 182 | 73 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 73 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 73 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 73 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 34 | -0.35 | 2.34 | 338 | 73 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2025 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 43 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 1.25 | 4.51 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |