Joe Kemlage
P
Aberdeen IronBirds
+0.4
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.5%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 5 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.42 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 16 | 7 | 63 | 271 | 73 | 31 | 5 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 2.2% | 3.41 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 36 | 0 | 65 | 296 | 68 | 30 | 9 | 17.6% | 11.7% | 4.0% | 5.85 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 63 | 26 | 8 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 62 | 25 | 8 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 60 | 25 | 8 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 58 | 24 | 8 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 55 | 24 | 8 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 52 | 23 | 8 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 49 | 23 | 8 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 46 | 22 | 7 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 5.05 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 57 | 7 | 134 | 597 | 114 | 71 | 18 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.67 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 10 | 200 | 889 | 170 | 106 | 27 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.67 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Kemlage (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.46 | 22.8% | 13.3% | 186 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 89 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 87 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 83 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 83 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 83 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .368 | 3.62 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.27 | 3.02 | 153 | 81 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 81 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 81 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 81 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 80 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 304 | 80 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 26.6% | 9.7% | 4.0% | .216 | 3.74 | 25.0% | 13.4% | 39 | -0.55 | 2.75 | 176 | 80 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 1.7% | .235 | 4.33 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 94 | +1.02 | 2.79 | 325 | 80 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 80 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.42 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 160 | 80 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.12 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .285 | 6.29 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.17 | 3.36 | 144 | 80 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .226 | 5.06 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.32 | 2.02 | 280 | 79 |
| Carson Skipper L 2024 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 79 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 22.9% | 12.1% | 3.9% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 229 | 79 |
| Conor Lillis-White L 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 182 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $18M | $2M | -$16M | ||