Mac Lardner
P
Lansing Lugnuts
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99108vR 117
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%22.9%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 21 | 14 | 67 | 298 | 73 | 22 | 10 | 67% | 3.2 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.91 | 4.63 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 21 | 14 | 67 | 298 | 73 | 22 | 10 | 67% | 3.2 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 5.91 | 3.85 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 19 | 8 | 57 | 257 | 58 | 21 | 8 | 42% | 3.0 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 4.55 | 5.23 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 19 | 8 | 57 | 257 | 58 | 21 | 8 | 42% | 3.0 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 3.99 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 31 | 0 | 62 | 269 | 61 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 2.0 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 4.09 | 3.54 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 31 | 0 | 62 | 269 | 61 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 2.0 | 22.7% | 8.2% | 14.5% | 1.5% | 4.09 | 3.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 41 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 37 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 52 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.28 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 84 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 22 | 186 | 824 | 148 | 75 | 26 | 31% | 2.6 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.46 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 24 | 200 | 886 | 159 | 80 | 28 | 31% | 2.6 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mac Lardner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.62 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 115 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 79 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 77 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.62 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .341 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.18 | 3.47 | 393 | 76 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 72 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 70 |
| Jack Dashwood L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.80 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 309 | 69 |
| David Huff L 2028 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 69 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 69 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .321 | 7.40 | 16.6% | 2.7% | 21 | +2.96 | 4.08 | 165 | 68 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 68 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.92 | 19.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | .348 | 2.22 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 18 | -2.70 | 2.22 | 286 | 68 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 325 | 68 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.56 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 491 | 67 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 66 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 66 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 66 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2024 · 3.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.18 | 21.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 150 | 66 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 66 |
| Reid Love L 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 280 | 66 |
| Carson Teel L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.22 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 248 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 39 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 1.23 | 4.48 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |