Caden Monke

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 27 LHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	A+KC	3	3	2.70	3.40	26.7%	20.0%	—	K 26.7% · BB 20.0% · FIP 3.38
2025	25	MIX2 levels	46	54	6.96	4.76	23.4%	17.1%	—	K 19.0% · BB 19.3% · FIP 5.38
2026	26	AANorthwest Ark…	37	46	5.83	3.66	28.2%	20.7%	—	K 22.8% · BB 22.8% · FIP 4.35
2027PROJ	27	MLBKC	1	1	5.60	5.60	20.9%	20.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBKC	15	16	5.52	5.55	21.1%	19.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBKC	18	19	5.53	5.59	21.0%	18.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsNick Lee (age 25) · Stephen Randolph (age 29) · Brian Marconi (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 140

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%20.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.9%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	0	14	55	17	7	1	0%	1.2	30.9%	12.7%	18.2%	1.8%	1.32	3.10	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	0	14	55	17	7	1	0%	1.2	30.9%	12.7%	18.2%	1.8%	1.32	3.10	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	30	1	67	306	75	34	11	3%	2.2	18.9%	12.8%	6.1%	4.3%	6.04	5.48	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	30	1	67	306	75	34	11	3%	2.2	24.5%	11.1%	13.4%	3.6%	6.04	4.52	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	3	0	3	15	4	3	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	2.70	3.38	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	3	0	3	15	4	3	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	2.70	3.40	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	269	63	46	6	0%	1.2	19.0%	19.3%	-0.4%	2.6%	6.96	5.38	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	269	63	46	6	0%	1.2	19.0%	19.3%	-0.4%	2.6%	6.96	5.38	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	54	269	63	46	6	0%	1.2	23.4%	17.1%	6.3%	2.2%	6.96	4.76	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	37	0	46	227	64	47	1	0%	1.3	22.8%	22.8%	0.1%	0.5%	5.83	4.35	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	37	0	46	227	64	47	1	0%	1.3	22.8%	22.8%	0.1%	0.5%	5.83	4.35	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	37	0	46	227	64	47	1	0%	1.3	28.2%	20.7%	7.5%	0.4%	5.83	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	KC	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	20.0%	0.9%	2.5%	5.60	5.60	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	40	0	42	176	37	33	5	0%	1.0	21.1%	19.1%	2.0%	2.6%	5.52	5.55	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	33	0	34	144	30	27	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	18.6%	2.4%	2.8%	5.53	5.59	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	15	0	16	68	14	13	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	19.1%	2.0%	2.6%	5.52	5.55	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	18	0	19	80	17	15	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	18.6%	2.4%	2.8%	5.53	5.59	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	0	35	146	31	27	4	0%	1.1	21.0%	18.8%	2.2%	2.7%	5.53	5.19	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	156	23	0%	1.1	21.0%	18.8%	2.2%	2.7%	5.53	5.19	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		127	1	185	872	182	153	22	1%	1.5	20.8%	17.5%	3.3%	2.6%	5.85	4.97	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	1	200	944	197	166	24	1%	1.5	20.8%	17.5%	3.3%	2.6%	5.85	4.97	-2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 46 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.35 (+0.76)K% 28.2% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.19%	—	×0.810	22.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.70%	—	×1.100	22.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.44%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.53%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 51 IPFIP 4.63 → 5.38 (+0.75)K% 23.4% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.44%	—	×0.810	18.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.58%	—	×1.100	19.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷1.077	×1.200	2.61%

Result: FIP 4.63 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 67 IPFIP 4.41 → 5.48 (+1.07)K% 24.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.51%	—	×0.770	18.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷1.047	×1.250	4.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 4.41 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 6 IPFIP 1.76 → 2.28 (+0.53)K% 22.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.770	17.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.013	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.76 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Royals Gold · 5 IPFIP 2.04 → 3.47 (+1.42)K% 35.0% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.680	23.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.250	18.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.006	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caden Monke (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	20.9%	20.0%	2.5%	—	5.57	21.0%	2.2%	76	-0.03	—	—	—
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	84
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	83
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	82
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	80
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	79
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	79
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	78
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	78
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	77
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	77
Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	16.9%	15.3%	3.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	161	76
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	76
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	76
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	75
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	75
Hunter Cervenka L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	27	SU	5.91	18.9%	15.0%	4.6%	.282	3.10	25.9%	15.0%	81	-2.81	3.08	194	75
Austin Briggs L 2023 · 4.40 FIP	27	SU	4.40	19.8%	18.0%	1.3%	.307	5.30	12.1%	-7.0%	32	+0.90	3.62	187	75
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	75
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	74
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	21.0%	19.3%	1.00	5.56
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*