Chandler Jozwiak

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	23	MIX3 levels	40	0	57	2.35	2.04	29.8%	8.9%	—	K 20.0% · BB 8.3% · FIP 2.86
2023	24	MIX2 levels	44	0	62	2.74	2.92	18.9%	6.2%	—	K 14.8% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.62
2024	25	AAMIA	40	2	52	3.66	4.61	20.8%	13.9%	—	K 16.9% · BB 15.3% · FIP 5.33
2025	26	No MLB games played
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	1	0	1	4.87	4.87	20.8%	11.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBMIA	9	0	9	4.89	4.94	20.8%	11.8%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsColton Johnson (age 26) · Jeff Ibarra (age 28) · Ashur Tolliver (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 126

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%20.8%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	7	0	9	46	14	3	0	0%	1.3	30.4%	6.5%	23.9%	0.0%	5.79	1.36	—
2021	22	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	7	0	9	46	14	3	0	0%	1.3	30.4%	6.5%	23.9%	0.0%	5.79	1.06	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	57	225	67	20	1	0%	1.4	20.0%	8.3%	11.8%	0.7%	2.35	2.86	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	57	225	67	20	1	0%	1.4	29.8%	8.9%	20.9%	0.4%	2.35	2.04	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	62	259	49	16	3	0%	1.4	14.8%	7.0%	7.8%	1.6%	2.74	3.62	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	62	259	49	16	3	0%	1.4	18.9%	6.2%	12.7%	1.2%	2.74	2.92	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	40	2	52	216	45	30	6	5%	1.3	16.9%	15.3%	1.6%	3.1%	3.66	5.33	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	40	2	52	216	45	30	6	5%	1.3	16.9%	15.3%	1.6%	3.1%	3.66	5.33	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	40	2	52	216	45	30	6	5%	1.3	20.8%	13.9%	6.9%	2.8%	3.66	4.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.8%	11.8%	9.0%	3.0%	4.87	4.87	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	26	0	28	117	24	14	4	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.8%	9.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.94	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	11.8%	9.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.8%	9.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	93	23	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.8%	9.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		131	2	181	746	134	73	13	2%	1.4	17.9%	9.7%	8.2%	1.7%	3.04	3.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	2	200	826	148	80	14	2%	1.4	17.9%	9.7%	8.2%	1.7%	3.04	3.75	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 52 IPFIP 4.62 → 5.33 (+0.70)K% 20.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.810	16.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×1.100	15.28%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.064	×1.200	3.13%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 4.62 → 5.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 44 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.46 (+0.80)K% 19.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.89%	—	×0.770	15.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.97%	—	×1.150	5.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷0.817	×1.250	1.69%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 18 IPFIP 3.53 → 3.98 (+0.45)K% 16.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.810	13.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.97%	—	×1.100	9.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷1.091	×1.200	1.41%

Result: FIP 3.53 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 34 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.68 (+0.60)K% 23.5% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.48%	—	×0.770	18.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×1.150	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.885	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AJupiter Hammerheads · 13 IPFIP 2.09 → 3.36 (+1.27)K% 34.0% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.00%	—	×0.740	25.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.00%	—	×1.180	7.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷0.959	×1.300	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 10 IPFIP 1.43 → 2.35 (+0.92)K% 44.2% → 35.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.19%	—	×0.810	35.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.28%	—	×1.100	17.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.048	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.43 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AJupiter Hammerheads · 9 IPFIP 1.36 → 2.17 (+0.82)K% 30.4% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.740	22.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.52%	—	×1.180	7.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.891	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.36 → 2.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chandler Jozwiak (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	20.8%	11.8%	3.0%	—	4.94	20.8%	9.1%	28	+0.07	—	—	—
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	87
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	84
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	84
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	83
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	82
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	81
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	81
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	81
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	79
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	79
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	79
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	78
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	78
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	78
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	78
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	78
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	77
Armando Almanza L 2001 · 5.21 FIP	28	SU	5.21	25.3%	14.0%	4.5%	.260	4.73	25.3%	14.7%	108	-0.48	2.90	211	77
Jake Rice L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	27	SU	3.75	21.8%	13.8%	1.4%	.273	5.90	16.5%	0.9%	54	+2.15	3.16	199	77
Adrian Gusman L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	27	SU	4.31	17.9%	9.7%	2.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	141	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	20.8%	11.8%	1.19	4.88
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43