Steven Matz
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 35
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.8 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 127
ERA4.16
FIP4.28
K%18.4%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p2221.3%
K%
p2017.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.366
CH+0.6 (30%)
SI (48%)
CU (12%)
SL-0.5 (10%)
FB-2.4 (48%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 24 | 141 | 563 | 141 | 44 | 10 | 96% | 5.6 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 2.11 | 3.25 | +3.5 |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 24 | 141 | 563 | 141 | 44 | 10 | 96% | 5.6 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 1.8% | 2.11 | 2.96 | +4.0 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 22 | 22 | 132 | 547 | 129 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 5.3% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 3.40 | 3.19 | +3.4 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 22 | 22 | 132 | 547 | 129 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 5.3% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 3.40 | 3.18 | +3.4 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 83 | 364 | 68 | 21 | 15 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.9% | 5.4% | 12.5% | 4.1% | 6.07 | 4.52 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 83 | 364 | 68 | 21 | 15 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.7% | 5.8% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 6.07 | 4.57 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 30 | 154 | 654 | 152 | 56 | 25 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 3.8% | 3.97 | 4.33 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 30 | 154 | 654 | 152 | 56 | 25 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 3.8% | 3.97 | 4.33 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 30 | 160 | 691 | 153 | 45 | 27 | 94% | 5.0 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 15.6% | 3.9% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 30 | 160 | 691 | 153 | 45 | 27 | 94% | 5.0 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 15.6% | 3.9% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +2.2 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 9 | 6 | 31 | 142 | 36 | 10 | 14 | 67% | 3.4 | 25.4% | 7.0% | 18.3% | 9.9% | 9.68 | 7.29 | -1.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 9 | 6 | 31 | 142 | 36 | 10 | 14 | 67% | 3.4 | 25.4% | 7.0% | 18.3% | 9.9% | 9.68 | 7.67 | -1.1 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 29 | 29 | 151 | 647 | 144 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.3% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.59 | +3.2 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 29 | 29 | 151 | 647 | 144 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.3% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.60 | +3.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 16 | 65 | 278 | 76 | 17 | 9 | 70% | 2.8 | 26.9% | 5.0% | 21.9% | 3.4% | 4.57 | 3.35 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 16 | 65 | 278 | 76 | 17 | 9 | 70% | 2.8 | 27.3% | 6.1% | 21.2% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 3.35 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 25 | 17 | 105 | 449 | 98 | 32 | 11 | 68% | 4.2 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 3.51 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 25 | 17 | 105 | 449 | 98 | 32 | 11 | 68% | 4.2 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 14.7% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.51 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 16 | 72 | 306 | 60 | 20 | 9 | 76% | 3.4 | 17.4% | 6.7% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 16 | 72 | 306 | 60 | 20 | 9 | 76% | 3.4 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 3.89 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 53 | 2 | 77 | 309 | 59 | 11 | 8 | 4% | 1.4 | 19.1% | 3.6% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 3.05 | 3.35 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 53 | 2 | 77 | 309 | 59 | 11 | 8 | 4% | 1.4 | 19.1% | 3.6% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 3.05 | 3.35 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 17 | 11 | 55 | 243 | 43 | 20 | 12 | 65% | 3.2 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 6.55 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TB | 6 | 6 | 35 | 149 | 27 | 10 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.16 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TB | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 27 | 10 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.10 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | TB | — | — | 90 | 392 | 70 | 30 | 17 | — | — | 18.0% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 5.61 | 4.88 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | TB | — | — | 88 | 373 | 70 | 30 | 17 | — | — | 18.9% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 5.72 | 5.02 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 37 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.5% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 44 | 184 | 30 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 5.19 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TB | 6 | 6 | 38 | 158 | 24 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.2% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.59 | 5.86 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 37 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.5% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 30 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 5.13 | 5.36 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TB | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 24 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.2% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.52 | 5.79 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 290 | 211 | 1224 | 5216 | 1100 | 350 | 187 | 73% | 4.2 | 21.1% | 6.7% | 14.4% | 3.6% | 4.38 | 4.13 | +18.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 852 | 180 | 57 | 31 | 73% | 4.2 | 21.1% | 6.7% | 14.4% | 3.6% | 4.38 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 303 | 220 | 1226 | 5193 | 1137 | 348 | 174 | 73% | 4.0 | 21.9% | 6.7% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 4.10 | 3.94 | +21.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 36 | 200 | 847 | 186 | 57 | 28 | 73% | 4.0 | 21.9% | 6.7% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 4.10 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Steven Matz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.14 | 19.0% | 5.7% | 2.8% | — | 5.39 | 16.5% | 8.5% | 131 | +1.25 | — | — | — |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 64 |
| Phil Coke L 2025 · 3.04 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 1.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 101 | 60 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 59 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 58 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 57 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.05 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 426 | 56 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.74 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 391 | 54 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 53 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.34 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.01 | 19.9% | 11.2% | 107 | -0.33 | 3.68 | 405 | 51 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.39 | 15.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 4.60 | 11.7% | 3.3% | 58 | +1.21 | 3.39 | 138 | 51 |
| Eric Stults L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 50 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.57 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.70 | 12.1% | 5.1% | 220 | +0.13 | 3.57 | 444 | 48 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.24 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .342 | 5.22 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 117 | +0.98 | 4.24 | 445 | 48 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 47 |
| Andrew Albers L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.45 | 16.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 508 | 47 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.00 | 10.7% | 7.2% | 1.6% | .309 | 5.36 | 9.8% | 2.0% | 42 | +1.36 | 3.85 | 237 | 47 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2027 · 3.28 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.28 | 9.6% | 3.7% | 0.9% | .333 | 4.32 | 7.6% | 2.5% | 97 | +1.04 | 3.28 | 199 | 47 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.63 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .337 | 5.23 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 119 | +0.60 | 4.40 | 408 | 46 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.09 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 4.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 154 | 45 |
| Jason Vargas L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.71 | 20.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | .300 | 4.39 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.87 | 478 | 43 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 17.2% | 7.3% | 1.47 | 4.84 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |