Steven Matz — OGILVIE

Steven Matz P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 35 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.01

FIP4.15

K%17.8%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p1720.6%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

CH+0.6 (29%)

SI (49%)

CU (12%)

SL-0.5 (9%)

FB-2.4 (50%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	24	141	563	141	44	10	96%	5.6	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	2.0%	2.11	3.30	+2.8
2015	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	24	141	563	141	44	10	96%	5.6	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	1.8%	2.11	2.96	+3.4
2016	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	22	22	132	547	129	29	14	100%	6.0	23.6%	5.3%	18.3%	2.6%	3.40	3.19	+2.8
2016	25	MLB RAW	New York Mets	22	22	132	547	129	29	14	100%	6.0	23.6%	5.3%	18.3%	2.6%	3.40	3.18	+2.8
2017	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	83	364	68	21	15	100%	4.9	17.9%	5.4%	12.5%	4.2%	6.07	4.58	+0.3
2017	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	83	364	68	21	15	100%	4.9	18.7%	5.8%	12.9%	4.1%	6.07	4.57	+0.3
2018	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	30	30	154	654	152	56	25	100%	5.1	23.2%	8.6%	14.7%	3.8%	3.97	4.33	+1.0
2018	27	MLB RAW	New York Mets	30	30	154	654	152	56	25	100%	5.1	23.2%	8.6%	14.7%	3.8%	3.97	4.33	+1.0
2019	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	32	30	160	691	153	45	27	94%	5.0	22.1%	6.5%	15.6%	3.9%	4.21	4.21	+1.3
2019	28	MLB RAW	New York Mets	32	30	160	691	153	45	27	94%	5.0	22.1%	6.5%	15.6%	3.9%	4.21	4.22	+1.3
2020	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	9	6	31	142	36	10	14	67%	3.4	25.4%	7.0%	18.3%	9.9%	9.68	7.28	-0.8
2020	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	9	6	31	142	36	10	14	67%	3.4	25.4%	7.0%	18.3%	9.9%	9.68	7.67	-0.9
2021	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	29	29	151	647	144	43	18	100%	5.2	22.3%	6.6%	15.6%	2.8%	3.82	3.59	+2.4
2021	30	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	29	29	151	647	144	43	18	100%	5.2	22.3%	6.6%	15.6%	2.8%	3.82	3.60	+2.4
2022	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	16	65	278	76	17	9	70%	2.8	26.9%	5.0%	21.9%	3.7%	4.57	3.48	+1.1
2022	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	16	65	278	76	17	9	70%	2.8	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	3.2%	4.57	3.35	+1.2
2023	32	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	25	17	105	449	98	32	11	68%	4.2	21.8%	7.1%	14.7%	2.6%	3.86	3.61	+1.6
2023	32	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	25	17	105	449	98	32	11	68%	4.2	21.8%	7.1%	14.7%	2.6%	3.86	3.61	+1.6
2023	32	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	25	17	105	449	98	32	11	68%	4.2	21.8%	7.1%	14.7%	2.4%	3.86	3.51	+1.8
2024	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	16	72	306	60	20	9	76%	3.4	17.1%	6.5%	10.6%	3.4%	4.37	4.34	+0.5
2024	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	16	72	306	60	20	9	76%	3.4	17.1%	6.5%	10.6%	3.4%	4.37	4.34	+0.5
2024	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	16	72	306	60	20	9	76%	3.4	19.6%	6.5%	13.1%	2.9%	4.37	3.89	+0.9
2025	34	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	53	2	77	309	59	11	8	4%	1.4	19.1%	3.6%	15.5%	2.7%	3.05	3.40	+1.1
2025	34	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	53	2	77	309	59	11	8	4%	1.4	19.1%	3.6%	15.5%	2.7%	3.05	3.40	+1.1
2025	34	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	53	2	77	309	59	11	8	4%	1.4	19.1%	3.6%	15.5%	2.6%	3.05	3.35	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			276	183	1078	4599	994	301	162	66%	3.9	21.6%	6.5%	15.1%	3.5%	4.30	4.05	+10.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	35	12	80	344	59	26	15	34%	2.3	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	4.6%	5.62	5.12	-0.5
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	35	12	80	344	59	26	15	34%	2.3	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	4.6%	5.62	5.12	-0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	AAA RAW	TB	5	1	6	28	5	2	1	20%	1.2	17.9%	7.1%	10.7%	3.6%	4.50	4.46	—
2026	35	MLB RAW	TB	30	11	74	316	54	24	14	37%	2.5	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	4.4%	5.72	5.05	-0.4
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	TB	30	11	74	316	54	24	14	37%	2.5	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	4.4%	5.72	5.05	-0.4
ROS	35	MLB MLE	TB	5	0	5	22	4	1	1	0%	1.0	17.8%	6.6%	11.2%	3.1%	4.01	4.15	+0.0
ROS	35	MLB CTX	TB	5	0	5	21	4	1	1	0%	1.0	17.8%	6.6%	11.2%	3.2%	4.06	4.20	+0.0
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	85	366	63	27	16	—	—	17.2%	7.5%	9.7%	4.3%	5.53	5.06	-0.3
FULL	35	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	79	334	63	27	16	—	—	18.8%	8.2%	10.6%	4.7%	5.95	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	50	211	36	15	8	100%	6.2	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	3.9%	4.88	5.08	-0.1
2028	37	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	44	184	29	14	8	100%	6.2	15.9%	7.8%	8.1%	4.3%	5.24	5.48	-0.3
2027	36	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	50	211	36	15	8	100%	6.2	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	4.0%	4.94	5.14	-0.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	44	186	30	15	8	100%	6.3	15.9%	7.8%	8.1%	4.4%	5.31	5.55	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		296	199	1177	5016	1063	332	179	67%	4.0	21.2%	6.6%	14.6%	3.6%	4.36	4.11	+11.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		50	34	200	852	181	56	30	67%	4.0	21.2%	6.6%	14.6%	3.6%	4.36	4.11	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		321	221	1251	5294	1151	353	181	69%	3.9	21.7%	6.7%	15.1%	3.4%	4.09	3.98	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	35	200	847	184	56	29	69%	3.9	21.7%	6.7%	15.1%	3.4%	4.09	3.98	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Matz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	18.9%	5.7%	2.9%	—	5.27	16.5%	9.0%	94	+1.08	—	—	—
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	62
Phil Coke L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	34	SP-	3.04	18.0%	6.7%	1.1%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	101	61
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	61
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	58
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	57
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	54
Jorge De La Rosa L 2016 · 4.56 FIP	35	SP	4.56	17.3%	10.1%	3.0%	.315	4.08	19.9%	11.2%	107	-0.48	3.86	405	52
David Price L 2021 · 3.82 FIP	35	SW	3.82	17.8%	7.4%	2.4%	.301	3.65	22.2%	18.0%	40	-0.17	2.65	922	51
Orlando Lara L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	426	50
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	49
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	49
Rich Hill L 2015 · 3.27 FIP	35	SW	3.27	26.8%	10.9%	1.9%	.239	3.07	29.0%	21.2%	379	-0.20	2.05	1,030	47
Francisley Bueno L 2016 · 3.48 FIP	35	SP	3.48	15.0%	4.6%	1.9%	.312	4.44	11.7%	3.3%	58	+0.96	3.48	138	47
Chris Narveson L 2017 · 4.59 FIP	35	SP	4.59	12.2%	10.4%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	249	46
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	46
Arturo Lopez L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	34	SP	4.34	10.3%	5.4%	2.6%	.342	5.46	12.2%	5.4%	117	+1.12	4.34	445	44
Jason Vargas L 2018 · 4.71 FIP	35	SP	4.71	20.8%	7.2%	4.5%	.300	4.33	19.1%	9.7%	150	-0.38	4.02	478	44
Oscar Rivera L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	35	SP	4.10	10.7%	7.2%	1.8%	.309	5.80	9.8%	2.0%	42	+1.70	3.68	237	44
Horacio Ramirez L 2016 · 3.39 FIP	36	SP	3.39	9.6%	3.7%	1.1%	.333	4.23	7.6%	2.5%	97	+0.84	3.39	199	44
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	44

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	50	17.4%	6.8%	1.40	4.67
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38