Steven Matz
P
Tampa Bay Rays
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 35
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA3.98
FIP4.07
xFIP4.20
SIERA4.08
K%19.8%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%14.1%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†4550
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p5626.3%
K%
p6224.5%
xwOBA vs
p160.352
CH+0.6 (30%)
SI (48%)
CU (9%)
SL-0.5 (11%)
FB-2.4 (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 25 | 24 | 141 | 563 | 141 | 44 | 10 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 2.11 | 3.32 | +3.2 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 22 | 22 | 132 | 547 | 129 | 29 | 14 | 23.6% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 3.40 | 3.11 | +3.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 17 | 17 | 83 | 364 | 68 | 21 | 15 | 17.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.07 | 4.70 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 30 | 154 | 654 | 152 | 56 | 25 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 3.97 | 4.39 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 30 | 160 | 691 | 153 | 45 | 27 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 4.21 | 4.09 | +2.2 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 9 | 6 | 31 | 142 | 36 | 10 | 14 | 25.4% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.68 | 7.23 | -0.8 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 29 | 29 | 151 | 647 | 144 | 43 | 18 | 22.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.57 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 23 | 16 | 65 | 278 | 76 | 17 | 9 | 26.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 3.26 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 25 | 17 | 105 | 449 | 98 | 32 | 11 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 3.51 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 21 | 16 | 72 | 306 | 60 | 20 | 9 | 17.4% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.25 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 53 | 2 | 77 | 309 | 59 | 11 | 8 | 19.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.05 | 3.33 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 4 | 4 | 21 | 85 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 24.7% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 3.20 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | NYM | 7 | — | 7 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 3.41 | 3.58 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 28 | 114 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 23.8% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.29 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 42 | 13 | 6 | 20.2% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 4.00 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 35 | 12 | 5 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | NYM | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 28 | 10 | 5 | 18.5% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 290 | 213 | 1192 | 5035 | 1115 | 333 | 163 | 22.1% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 3.98 | 3.85 | +19.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 36 | 200 | 845 | 187 | 56 | 27 | 22.1% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 3.98 | 3.85 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Steven Matz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 19.4% | 5.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.29 | 19.4% | 13.0% | 128 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.42 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 117 | 68 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.23 | 17.6% | 6.4% | 3.3% | .343 | 4.25 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 81 | +0.02 | 2.38 | 306 | 67 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.51 | 15.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | .312 | 4.42 | 11.7% | 3.3% | 58 | +0.91 | 3.51 | 138 | 63 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.28 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 1.6% | .255 | 3.38 | 26.7% | 18.4% | 22 | +0.10 | 2.57 | 109 | 62 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.79 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% | .337 | 4.94 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 119 | +0.15 | 4.49 | 408 | 61 |
| Phil Coke L 2025 · 3.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 1.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 101 | 59 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.28 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .418 | 4.63 | 15.7% | 5.5% | 55 | +0.35 | 4.28 | 159 | 59 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 59 |
| Manny Parra L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.33 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 0.9% | .351 | 2.43 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 27 | -0.90 | 2.43 | 114 | 58 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.83 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 127 | 58 |
| Dana Eveland L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.68 | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 129 | 57 |
| Brandon Mann L 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.59 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 190 | 56 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 154 | 56 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.34 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 650 | 55 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.65 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .301 | 3.67 | 22.2% | 18.0% | 40 | +0.02 | 2.58 | 922 | 54 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.25 | 27.3% | 7.0% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.23 | 28.0% | 23.3% | 105 | -1.02 | 1.56 | 219 | 46 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.98 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 166 | 46 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.33 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% | .342 | 5.45 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 117 | +1.12 | 4.33 | 445 | 45 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.59 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 1.5% | .310 | 3.68 | 12.1% | 5.1% | 220 | +0.09 | 3.59 | 444 | 45 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 20.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | .192 | 3.44 | 19.6% | 12.0% | 57 | -0.42 | 2.22 | 405 | 44 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.