Jesse Chavez — OGILVIE

Jesse Chavez P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 42 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA3.96

FIP4.28

K%21.3%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

SI (35%)

CU (6%)

SL-0.9 (4%)

CT-1.0 (39%)

FB-1.6 (35%)

CH-3.4 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	30	26	157	672	136	46	18	87%	5.2	20.2%	6.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.18	3.87	+1.9
2015	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	30	26	157	672	136	46	18	87%	5.2	20.2%	6.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.18	3.74	+2.2
2016	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	62	0	67	282	63	15	12	0%	1.1	22.3%	5.3%	17.0%	4.1%	4.43	4.13	+0.3
2016	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	62	0	67	282	63	15	12	0%	1.1	22.3%	5.3%	17.0%	4.3%	4.43	4.22	+0.3
2017	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	38	21	138	586	119	43	28	55%	3.6	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	4.7%	5.35	4.89	+0.0
2017	33	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	38	21	138	586	119	43	28	55%	3.6	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	4.8%	5.35	4.95	-0.1
2018	34	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	62	0	95	377	92	16	13	0%	1.5	24.4%	4.2%	20.2%	3.6%	2.55	3.54	+1.1
2018	34	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	62	0	95	377	92	16	13	0%	1.5	24.4%	4.2%	20.2%	3.4%	2.55	3.45	+1.3
2019	35	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	48	9	78	337	72	22	12	19%	1.6	21.4%	6.5%	14.8%	3.4%	4.85	4.00	+0.5
2019	35	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	48	9	78	337	72	22	12	19%	1.6	21.4%	6.5%	14.8%	3.6%	4.85	4.10	+0.4
2020	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	18	0	17	77	13	7	6	0%	0.9	16.9%	9.1%	7.8%	7.2%	6.88	6.80	-0.4
2020	36	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	18	0	17	77	13	7	6	0%	0.9	16.9%	9.1%	7.8%	7.8%	6.88	7.39	-0.6
2021	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	4	54	210	63	17	1	9%	1.2	28.5%	8.3%	20.2%	0.5%	2.18	2.03	+1.6
2021	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	4	54	210	63	17	1	9%	1.2	30.0%	8.1%	21.9%	0.5%	2.18	1.94	+1.7
2022	38	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	60	1	69	292	74	20	8	2%	1.2	25.3%	6.8%	18.5%	2.7%	3.76	3.33	+1.0
2022	38	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	60	1	69	292	74	20	8	2%	1.2	25.3%	6.8%	18.5%	2.7%	3.76	3.33	+1.0
2023	39	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	38	157	45	13	2	5%	1.0	27.1%	8.3%	18.8%	1.4%	1.42	2.63	+0.9
2023	39	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	38	157	45	13	2	5%	1.0	27.1%	8.3%	18.8%	1.4%	1.42	2.63	+0.9
2023	39	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	2	38	157	45	13	2	5%	1.0	28.7%	8.3%	20.4%	1.3%	1.42	2.44	+1.0
2024	40	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	46	0	63	264	55	18	10	0%	1.4	20.8%	6.8%	14.0%	3.8%	3.13	4.28	+0.2
2024	40	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	46	0	63	264	55	18	10	0%	1.4	20.8%	6.8%	14.0%	3.8%	3.13	4.28	+0.2
2024	40	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	46	0	63	264	55	18	10	0%	1.4	20.8%	6.8%	14.0%	3.8%	3.13	4.27	+0.2
2025	41	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	39	168	44	17	6	4%	1.4	23.9%	8.6%	15.3%	1.8%	3.49	3.18	+0.6
2025	41	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	39	168	44	17	6	4%	1.4	23.9%	8.6%	15.3%	1.8%	3.49	3.18	+0.6
2025	41	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	39	168	44	17	6	4%	1.4	26.2%	10.1%	16.1%	3.6%	3.49	4.16	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			434	62	761	3207	707	214	113	14%	1.8	22.0%	6.7%	15.4%	3.5%	4.05	4.02	+4.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	42	MLB	ATL	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	7.8%	13.4%	2.9%	3.96	4.28	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	43	MLB MLE	ATL	47	0	50	210	42	18	7	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	3.4%	4.41	4.71	-0.1
2027	43	MLB CTX	ATL	48	0	50	211	42	18	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	3.4%	4.41	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		481	62	811	3417	749	232	120	13%	1.7	21.9%	6.8%	15.1%	3.5%	4.08	4.04	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		119	15	200	843	185	57	30	13%	1.7	21.9%	6.8%	15.1%	3.5%	4.08	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		473	64	815	3422	766	232	114	14%	1.7	22.4%	6.8%	15.6%	3.3%	3.92	3.89	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	16	200	839	188	57	28	14%	1.7	22.4%	6.8%	15.6%	3.3%	3.92	3.89	+1.2

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Jesse Chavez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	21.3%	7.8%	2.9%	—	4.71	20.1%	11.6%	50	+0.43	—	—	—
Joaquín Benoit R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	40	SU	4.48	21.6%	9.9%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	164	70
Rafael Diaz R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	44	SW	4.07	17.3%	10.5%	2.0%	.301	3.17	16.2%	9.4%	152	-0.90	3.04	215	68
Fernando Rodney R 2019 · 4.07 FIP	42	SU	4.07	23.3%	12.9%	2.4%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.69	295	63
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	60
Jose Valverde R 2019 · 5.47 FIP	41	SU	5.47	14.9%	6.1%	5.2%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	122	60
Pablo Ortega R 2019 · 5.20 FIP	42	SU	5.20	12.4%	8.2%	3.8%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	375	57
Koji Uehara R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	42	SU	3.61	28.1%	5.1%	4.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	130	57
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	22

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	54	20.7%	8.2%	1.21	4.17
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesse Chavez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	21.3%	7.8%	2.9%	—	4.71	20.1%	11.6%	50	+0.43	—	—	—
Joaquín Benoit R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	40	SU	4.48	21.6%	9.9%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	164	70
Rafael Diaz R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	44	SW	4.07	17.3%	10.5%	2.0%	.301	3.17	16.2%	9.4%	152	-0.90	3.04	215	68
Fernando Rodney R 2019 · 4.07 FIP	42	SU	4.07	23.3%	12.9%	2.4%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.69	295	63
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	60
Jose Valverde R 2019 · 5.47 FIP	41	SU	5.47	14.9%	6.1%	5.2%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	122	60
Pablo Ortega R 2019 · 5.20 FIP	42	SU	5.20	12.4%	8.2%	3.8%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	375	57
Koji Uehara R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	42	SU	3.61	28.1%	5.1%	4.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	130	57
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	22

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps