Jesse Chavez
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 42
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 98
ERA3.98
FIP4.30
K%21.7%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (35%)
CU (6%)
SL-0.9 (4%)
CT-1.0 (39%)
FB-1.6 (35%)
CH-3.4 (17%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 31 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 30 | 26 | 157 | 672 | 136 | 46 | 18 | 87% | 5.2 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 3.80 | +2.9 |
| 2015 | 31 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 30 | 26 | 157 | 672 | 136 | 46 | 18 | 87% | 5.2 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 3.74 | +3.1 |
| 2016 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 63 | 15 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 5.3% | 17.0% | 4.5% | 4.43 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2016 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 63 | 15 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 5.3% | 17.0% | 4.3% | 4.43 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 33 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 38 | 21 | 138 | 586 | 119 | 43 | 28 | 55% | 3.6 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 5.0% | 5.35 | 5.03 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 33 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 38 | 21 | 138 | 586 | 119 | 43 | 28 | 55% | 3.6 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 5.35 | 4.95 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 34 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 62 | 0 | 95 | 377 | 92 | 16 | 13 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 4.2% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 2.55 | 3.42 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 34 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 62 | 0 | 95 | 377 | 92 | 16 | 13 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 4.2% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 2.55 | 3.45 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 35 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 48 | 9 | 78 | 337 | 72 | 22 | 12 | 19% | 1.6 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.03 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 35 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 48 | 9 | 78 | 337 | 72 | 22 | 12 | 19% | 1.6 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.10 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 36 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 18 | 0 | 17 | 77 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.88 | 7.00 | -0.5 |
| 2020 | 36 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 18 | 0 | 17 | 77 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.88 | 7.39 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 4 | 54 | 210 | 63 | 17 | 1 | 9% | 1.2 | 28.5% | 8.3% | 20.2% | 0.5% | 2.18 | 2.03 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 4 | 54 | 210 | 63 | 17 | 1 | 9% | 1.2 | 30.0% | 8.1% | 21.9% | 0.5% | 2.18 | 1.94 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 38 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 60 | 1 | 69 | 292 | 74 | 20 | 8 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.3% | 6.8% | 18.5% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.33 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 38 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 60 | 1 | 69 | 292 | 74 | 20 | 8 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.3% | 6.8% | 18.5% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.33 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 39 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 2 | 38 | 157 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 5% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 8.3% | 18.8% | 1.4% | 1.42 | 2.63 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 39 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 2 | 38 | 157 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 5% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 8.3% | 20.4% | 1.3% | 1.42 | 2.44 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 40 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 46 | 0 | 63 | 264 | 55 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.8% | 6.8% | 14.0% | 3.8% | 3.13 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 40 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 46 | 0 | 63 | 264 | 55 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.8% | 6.8% | 14.0% | 3.8% | 3.13 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 41 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 1 | 39 | 168 | 44 | 17 | 6 | 4% | 1.4 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | 3.49 | 3.28 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 41 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 1 | 39 | 168 | 44 | 17 | 6 | 4% | 1.4 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 3.6% | 3.49 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 42 | MLB | ATL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 53 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 43 | MLB | ATL | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 43 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 43 | MLB | ATL | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 481 | 62 | 811 | 3417 | 750 | 233 | 120 | 13% | 1.7 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 15.1% | 3.5% | 4.08 | 4.04 | +12.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 15 | 200 | 843 | 185 | 57 | 30 | 13% | 1.7 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 15.1% | 3.5% | 4.08 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 473 | 64 | 815 | 3422 | 769 | 234 | 115 | 14% | 1.7 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 15.6% | 3.4% | 3.92 | 3.92 | +14.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 16 | 200 | 839 | 189 | 57 | 28 | 14% | 1.7 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 15.6% | 3.4% | 3.92 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesse Chavez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.74 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 50 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 40 | SU | 4.35 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 164 | 69 |
| Rafael Diaz R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 44 | SW | 3.91 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 1.7% | .301 | 3.13 | 16.2% | 9.4% | 152 | -0.78 | 3.09 | 215 | 67 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 42 | SU | 4.07 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 295 | 63 |
| Jose Valverde R 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 41 | SU | 5.20 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.19 | 122 | 61 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.31 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.7% | .293 | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.67 | 3.31 | 123 | 60 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 42 | SU | 5.46 | 12.4% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 375 | 56 |
| Koji Uehara R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.47 | 28.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.27 | 130 | 56 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 41 | SW | 4.46 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.3% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 21 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 54 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 1.21 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |