David Peterson
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 30
LHP
6'6" / 240 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 2.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION150 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98108vR 117
ERA3.86
FIP3.79
K%19.4%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%10.0%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 205 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1892.2
Whiff%
p2221.4%
K%
p2318.3%
xwOBA vs
p160.352
SL+3.9 (24%)
SI (29%)
CU (12%)
CH-1.5 (12%)
FB-4.8 (52%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 128 | 533 | 115 | 30 | 2 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.3% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 3.16 | 2.80 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 128 | 533 | 115 | 30 | 2 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 15.9% | 0.4% | 3.16 | 2.21 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 24 | 24 | 116 | 498 | 122 | 37 | 9 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 4.19 | 3.62 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 24 | 24 | 116 | 498 | 122 | 37 | 9 | 100% | 4.8 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 17.1% | 1.8% | 4.19 | 2.96 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 10 | 9 | 50 | 205 | 40 | 24 | 5 | 90% | 5.0 | 19.5% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 3.44 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 10 | 9 | 50 | 205 | 40 | 24 | 5 | 90% | 5.0 | 19.5% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 15 | 15 | 67 | 287 | 69 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 3.9% | 5.53 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 15 | 15 | 67 | 287 | 69 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 5.53 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 25 | 132 | 573 | 160 | 57 | 12 | 74% | 3.9 | 27.2% | 10.0% | 17.2% | 2.1% | 4.03 | 3.23 | +3.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 25 | 132 | 573 | 160 | 57 | 12 | 74% | 3.9 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 18.0% | 2.1% | 4.03 | 3.15 | +3.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 28 | 148 | 658 | 171 | 73 | 21 | 82% | 4.4 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 4.20 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 28 | 148 | 658 | 171 | 73 | 21 | 82% | 4.4 | 26.0% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 3.2% | 4.99 | 4.11 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 27 | 145 | 603 | 136 | 49 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 1.6% | 2.61 | 3.44 | +3.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 27 | 145 | 603 | 136 | 49 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.6% | 8.1% | 14.4% | 1.3% | 2.61 | 2.95 | +4.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 30 | 169 | 723 | 150 | 64 | 11 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 1.5% | 4.22 | 3.31 | +4.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 30 | 169 | 723 | 150 | 64 | 11 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 1.5% | 4.22 | 3.31 | +4.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 35 | 19 | 150 | 701 | 133 | 67 | 15 | 54% | 4.3 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 2.1% | 6.29 | 3.88 | +2.7 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 45 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 3.86 | 3.79 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 45 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 3.86 | 3.79 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 205 | 932 | 178 | 89 | 20 | — | — | 19.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 5.64 | 3.86 | +3.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 205 | 866 | 178 | 89 | 20 | — | — | 20.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 5.64 | 3.92 | +3.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 146 | 619 | 116 | 60 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 4.33 | 4.40 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 136 | 572 | 102 | 58 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.9% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.65 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 124 | 525 | 90 | 56 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.1% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.93 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 146 | 616 | 115 | 60 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 4.33 | 4.40 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 103 | 58 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.9% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.65 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 89 | 56 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.1% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.93 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 241 | 209 | 1234 | 5318 | 1099 | 523 | 125 | 87% | 5.1 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 2.4% | 4.51 | 3.89 | +21.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 34 | 200 | 862 | 178 | 85 | 20 | 87% | 5.1 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 2.4% | 4.51 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 231 | 199 | 1104 | 4781 | 1019 | 446 | 98 | 86% | 4.8 | 21.3% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 2.1% | 4.29 | 3.61 | +23.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 36 | 200 | 866 | 185 | 81 | 18 | 86% | 4.8 | 21.3% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 2.1% | 4.29 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Peterson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.98 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.0% | — | 4.65 | 17.9% | 7.8% | 406 | +0.67 | — | — | — |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.53 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.42 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.11 | 3.06 | 240 | 53 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.5% | .268 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 148 | +0.74 | 3.72 | 395 | 52 |
| James Gillheeney L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 50 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.81 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .328 | 3.88 | 18.3% | 10.1% | 288 | -0.93 | 3.36 | 1,167 | 50 |
| John Danks L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.30 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 3.0% | .303 | 5.79 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 22 | +1.49 | 4.30 | 200 | 49 |
| Brad Mills L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.98 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .294 | 6.49 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.51 | 4.98 | 182 | 49 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.80 | 16.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 412 | 49 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 49 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 311 | 48 |
| Tomas Solis L 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 48 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2023 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 48 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .297 | 5.58 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.52 | 4.06 | 162 | 48 |
| Jose Quintana L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.60 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .324 | 3.35 | 22.5% | 14.4% | 229 | -0.25 | 2.90 | 1,596 | 48 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.25 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 239 | -0.02 | 2.89 | 540 | 48 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 47 |
| Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.52 | 22.4% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.87 | 21.4% | 11.8% | 479 | +0.35 | 2.90 | 864 | 47 |
| J.A. Happ L 2028 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.28 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .308 | 3.72 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 518 | +0.44 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 47 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.08 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 188 | 47 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.07 | 26.5% | 8.9% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.65 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 394 | +1.58 | 3.07 | 650 | 47 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.05 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .287 | 5.29 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 171 | +1.24 | 4.01 | 642 | 47 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 141 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 0.92 | 4.39 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |