David Peterson
P
New York Mets
+2.1
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'6" / 240 lbs
MLB
Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 2.1 · 2026
ERA3.96
FIP3.89
xFIP3.63
SIERA3.77
K%21.2%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.1%
IP154
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.1peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p4324.3%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p170.351
SL+3.9 (21%)
SI (33%)
CU (13%)
CH-1.5 (12%)
FB-4.8 (54%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | 22 | 22 | 128 | 533 | 115 | 30 | 2 | 16.3% | 6.5% | 0.5% | 3.16 | 2.81 | +3.6 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 24 | 24 | 116 | 498 | 122 | 37 | 9 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 4.19 | 3.64 | +2.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 10 | 9 | 50 | 205 | 40 | 24 | 5 | 19.5% | 11.7% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 15 | 15 | 67 | 287 | 69 | 29 | 11 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.53 | 4.47 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 34 | 25 | 132 | 573 | 160 | 57 | 12 | 27.2% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 4.03 | 3.26 | +3.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 34 | 28 | 148 | 658 | 171 | 73 | 21 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.99 | 4.18 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 27 | 27 | 145 | 603 | 136 | 49 | 8 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 1.6% | 2.61 | 3.43 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 30 | 169 | 723 | 150 | 64 | 11 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 1.5% | 4.22 | 3.28 | +3.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 4 | 4 | 20 | 97 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 1.0% | 6.41 | 3.14 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 108 | 49 | 10 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 1.8% | 3.56 | 3.54 | +2.5 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 143 | 618 | 129 | 59 | 11 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 1.7% | 3.95 | 3.48 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 128 | 542 | 109 | 51 | 10 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 3.98 | 4.01 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 94 | 47 | 9 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 4.07 | 4.13 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 81 | 42 | 9 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 4.18 | 4.26 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 69 | 38 | 8 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 4.31 | 4.40 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 65 | 31 | 8 | 19.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 4.29 | 4.28 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 54 | 28 | 7 | 18.7% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 4.38 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 45 | 25 | 6 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 38 | MLB | NYM | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 36 | 22 | 6 | 17.0% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 200 | 184 | 973 | 4177 | 907 | 389 | 84 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 2.0% | 4.02 | 3.55 | +19.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 38 | 200 | 859 | 186 | 80 | 17 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 2.0% | 4.02 | 3.55 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Peterson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.00 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.0% | — | 4.12 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 344 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Brad Mills L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.66 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 6.15 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.49 | 4.66 | 182 | 55 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.51 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.34 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 240 | 54 |
| John Lannan L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.81 | 10.6% | 5.9% | 1.6% | .354 | 4.85 | 8.2% | 0.5% | 132 | +1.04 | 3.81 | 284 | 54 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.85 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .297 | 5.60 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.75 | 3.85 | 162 | 54 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.13 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .287 | 5.33 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 171 | +1.20 | 4.01 | 642 | 53 |
| John Danks L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .303 | 5.92 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 22 | +1.69 | 4.23 | 200 | 52 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.79 | 16.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 412 | 51 |
| Scott Diamond L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.8% | 1.5% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 316 | 50 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.70 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .268 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 148 | +0.76 | 3.70 | 395 | 50 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.63 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .297 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 6.8% | 220 | +0.90 | 3.45 | 512 | 49 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.79 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .328 | 3.89 | 18.3% | 10.1% | 288 | -0.90 | 3.34 | 1,167 | 49 |
| Frank Garces L 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.70 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 306 | 47 |
| Brett Oberholtzer L 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.19 | 13.6% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 442 | 47 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.87 | 19.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | .288 | 4.35 | 19.3% | 13.2% | 290 | +0.48 | 3.60 | 549 | 45 |
| Adam Wilk L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.76 | 13.5% | 8.3% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 455 | 45 |
| Duane Below L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.56 | 14.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 189 | 45 |
| Andrew Albers L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.12 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .347 | 2.95 | 20.7% | 16.2% | 162 | -1.17 | 2.95 | 508 | 43 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.24 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.30 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 239 | +0.06 | 2.96 | 540 | 43 |
| Jose Quintana L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.73 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% | .324 | 3.32 | 22.5% | 14.4% | 229 | -0.41 | 2.87 | 1,555 | 43 |
| Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.48 | 22.4% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.82 | 21.4% | 11.8% | 479 | +0.34 | 2.84 | 864 | 42 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2020
Service 6.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +2.1 | $17M | +$9M |
| Totals | $8M | $17M | +$9M | ||