David Peterson — OGILVIE

David Peterson P Chicago Cubs

Age 30 LHP 6'6" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION131 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA3.85

FIP3.78

K%19.8%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

SL+3.9 (22%)

SI (30%)

CU (10%)

CH-1.5 (14%)

FB-4.8 (54%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.517 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.7M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.2M
Totals		$0.7M		$0.5M	-$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	128	533	115	30	2	100%	5.8	16.3%	6.5%	9.8%	0.5%	3.16	2.81	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	128	533	115	30	2	100%	5.8	21.6%	5.6%	15.9%	0.4%	3.16	2.21	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	24	24	116	498	122	37	9	100%	4.8	19.8%	8.2%	11.7%	2.1%	4.19	3.64	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	24	24	116	498	122	37	9	100%	4.8	24.5%	7.4%	17.1%	1.8%	4.19	2.96	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	10	9	50	205	40	24	5	90%	5.0	19.5%	11.7%	7.8%	2.4%	3.44	4.28	+0.4
2020	24	MLB RAW	New York Mets	10	9	50	205	40	24	5	90%	5.0	19.5%	11.7%	7.8%	2.4%	3.44	4.25	+0.4
2021	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	15	15	67	287	69	29	11	100%	4.4	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.8%	5.53	4.46	+0.3
2021	25	MLB RAW	New York Mets	15	15	67	287	69	29	11	100%	4.4	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.8%	5.53	4.48	+0.3
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	25	132	573	160	57	12	74%	3.9	27.2%	10.0%	17.2%	2.1%	4.03	3.23	+2.7
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	25	132	573	160	57	12	74%	3.9	27.9%	9.9%	18.0%	2.1%	4.03	3.15	+2.8
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	28	148	658	171	73	21	82%	4.4	24.9%	10.7%	14.1%	3.3%	4.99	4.16	+1.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	28	148	658	171	73	21	82%	4.4	24.9%	10.7%	14.1%	3.3%	4.99	4.16	+1.3
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	28	148	658	171	73	21	82%	4.4	26.0%	11.1%	14.9%	3.2%	4.99	4.11	+1.4
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	145	603	136	49	8	100%	5.4	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	1.6%	2.61	3.43	+2.6
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	145	603	136	49	8	100%	5.4	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	1.6%	2.61	3.43	+2.6
2024	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	27	145	603	136	49	8	100%	5.4	22.6%	8.1%	14.4%	1.3%	2.61	2.95	+3.5
2025	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	30	30	169	723	150	64	11	100%	5.6	20.7%	8.9%	11.9%	1.5%	4.22	3.31	+3.3
2025	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	30	30	169	723	150	64	11	100%	5.6	20.7%	8.9%	11.9%	1.5%	4.22	3.31	+3.3
2025	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	30	30	169	723	150	64	11	100%	5.6	20.7%	8.9%	11.9%	1.5%	4.22	3.31	+3.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			160	135	754	3270	731	319	76	84%	4.7	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	2.3%	4.32	3.74	+10.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	20	131	599	117	59	14	69%	4.5	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	2.4%	5.28	4.03	+1.4
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	20	131	599	117	59	14	69%	4.5	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	2.4%	5.28	4.03	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	MLB RAW	CHC	29	20	131	599	117	59	14	69%	4.5	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	2.3%	5.28	3.98	+1.4
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	CHC	29	20	131	599	117	59	14	69%	4.5	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	2.3%	5.28	3.98	+1.4
ROS	30	MLB MLE	CHC	2	2	13	56	11	5	1	100%	6.6	19.8%	9.5%	10.3%	2.1%	3.85	3.78	+0.2
ROS	30	MLB CTX	CHC	2	2	13	55	11	5	1	100%	6.5	19.8%	9.5%	10.3%	2.0%	3.81	3.74	+0.2
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	145	655	128	64	15	—	—	19.6%	9.8%	9.7%	2.3%	5.15	4.01	+1.5
FULL	30	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	145	610	128	64	15	—	—	21.0%	10.5%	10.4%	2.5%	5.14	4.02	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CHC	24	24	146	619	118	61	15	100%	6.1	19.1%	9.9%	9.2%	2.4%	4.37	4.44	+0.8
2028	32	MLB MLE	CHC	23	23	136	572	105	59	15	100%	5.9	18.3%	10.3%	8.0%	2.7%	4.56	4.69	+0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	CHC	21	21	124	525	92	56	15	100%	5.9	17.5%	10.8%	6.7%	2.9%	4.81	4.97	-0.1
2030	34	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	113	478	79	54	15	100%	6.0	16.6%	11.3%	5.3%	3.2%	5.09	5.28	-0.5
2027	31	MLB CTX	CHC	24	24	146	616	118	61	14	100%	6.1	19.1%	9.9%	9.2%	2.3%	4.32	4.39	+0.8
2028	32	MLB CTX	CHC	23	23	136	574	105	59	15	100%	5.9	18.3%	10.3%	8.0%	2.6%	4.51	4.64	+0.3
2029	33	MLB CTX	CHC	21	21	124	524	92	56	15	100%	5.9	17.5%	10.8%	6.7%	2.8%	4.75	4.91	-0.1
2030	34	MLB CTX	CHC	19	19	113	477	79	54	15	100%	5.9	16.6%	11.3%	5.3%	3.1%	5.02	5.21	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		249	224	1287	5519	1136	555	136	90%	5.2	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	2.5%	4.44	3.98	+14.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	858	177	86	21	90%	5.2	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	2.5%	4.44	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		225	200	1085	4679	1001	434	98	89%	4.8	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	2.1%	4.13	3.62	+11.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	37	200	863	185	80	18	89%	4.8	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	2.1%	4.13	3.62	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Peterson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.98	20.6%	9.1%	2.0%	—	4.69	18.4%	8.1%	406	+0.71	—	—	—
Wade Miley L 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SP	4.76	19.5%	12.6%	3.1%	.328	3.96	18.3%	10.1%	288	-0.80	3.36	1,167	75
Jose Quintana L 2019 · 3.69 FIP	30	SP	3.69	20.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.324	3.39	22.5%	14.4%	229	-0.30	2.95	1,596	65
Gio Gonzalez L 2016 · 3.52 FIP	30	SP	3.52	22.4%	7.5%	2.5%	.309	3.81	21.4%	11.8%	479	+0.29	2.90	864	62
Danny Duffy L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	30	SP	4.65	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.279	4.02	24.7%	16.1%	117	-0.63	3.29	915	61
James Paxton L 2019 · 3.59 FIP	30	SP	3.59	29.4%	8.7%	3.4%	.312	3.93	28.9%	21.1%	20	+0.34	2.46	924	60
Jaime García L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	20.2%	7.3%	3.8%	.299	4.28	19.4%	9.7%	239	-0.10	2.93	540	58
Dallas Keuchel L 2018 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.5%	6.6%	2.1%	.299	4.33	15.6%	7.9%	338	+0.71	2.86	1,402	56
Yusei Kikuchi L 2021 · 4.49 FIP	30	SP	4.49	24.5%	9.3%	4.2%	.285	4.00	27.0%	19.2%	444	-0.49	3.23	1,041	55
Brett Anderson L 2018 · 3.49 FIP	30	SP	3.49	16.7%	4.1%	2.3%	.312	4.32	13.3%	7.0%	319	+0.83	3.49	706	54
Patrick Corbin L 2019 · 3.30 FIP	30	SP	3.30	28.5%	8.1%	2.9%	.287	4.71	18.8%	11.8%	390	+1.41	2.30	1,829	54
Clayton Kershaw L 2018 · 3.03 FIP	30	SP	3.03	23.8%	4.5%	2.5%	.272	3.27	27.9%	23.0%	358	+0.24	1.44	1,477	54
Scott Kazmir L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SP	3.84	20.3%	7.7%	2.7%	.268	4.30	21.6%	12.9%	148	+0.46	3.84	395	53
Jo-Jo Reyes L 2015 · 3.51 FIP	30	SP	3.51	14.9%	6.4%	1.6%	.326	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	90	-0.20	3.01	240	53
Christian Friedrich L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	29	SP	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	188	52
Brett Oberholtzer L 2018 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	13.6%	7.3%	4.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	442	52
David Price L 2016 · 3.50 FIP	30	SP	3.50	24.0%	5.2%	3.2%	.306	3.66	25.4%	18.3%	358	+0.16	2.65	922	52
Brad Mills L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	14.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.294	6.13	14.4%	2.6%	44	+1.50	4.63	182	51
Mike Minor L 2018 · 4.15 FIP	30	SP	4.15	20.6%	5.8%	3.8%	.253	4.19	23.2%	16.0%	424	+0.04	2.43	807	50
Ross Detwiler L 2016 · 4.61 FIP	30	SP-	4.61	14.3%	7.8%	3.2%	.297	5.54	14.8%	6.8%	220	+0.93	3.49	512	50
John Danks L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	30	SP	4.33	16.1%	7.2%	3.1%	.303	5.84	16.0%	5.0%	22	+1.51	4.33	200	50

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	135	18.6%	10.2%	1.00	4.53
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25