Joe Whitman

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 25 LHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.5 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#156ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	23	23	103	4.63	2.96	24.6%	8.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.89
2025	23	AASF	26	26	117	5.29	3.30	24.2%	9.2%	—	K 19.6% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.81
2026	24	MIX2 levels	32	24	135	3.54	3.07	23.8%	6.4%	—	K 19.9% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.51
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	3	3	16	4.21	4.21	19.4%	7.2%	0.2
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBSF	12	12	75	4.08	4.06	20.2%	7.2%	1.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBSF	14	14	83	4.09	4.10	20.3%	7.3%	1.2

Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$1M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -1.0 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 83%

CompsDalton Sawyer (age 23) · Anthony Veneziano (age 25) · Chris Jones (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.21

FIP4.21

K%19.4%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP155

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$26M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	10	38	13	3	0	83%	1.6	34.2%	7.9%	26.3%	0.0%	1.86	1.21	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	5	10	38	13	3	0	83%	1.6	34.2%	7.9%	26.3%	0.0%	1.86	1.34	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	103	439	108	37	7	100%	4.5	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	2.0%	4.63	3.89	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	103	439	108	37	7	100%	4.5	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	2.0%	4.63	3.89	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	103	439	108	37	7	100%	4.5	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	1.6%	4.63	2.96	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	26	26	117	513	124	47	10	100%	4.5	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	2.0%	5.29	3.81	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	26	26	117	513	124	47	10	100%	4.5	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	2.0%	5.29	3.81	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	26	26	117	513	124	47	10	100%	4.5	24.2%	9.2%	15.0%	1.9%	5.29	3.30	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	24	135	563	134	36	12	75%	4.2	19.9%	6.2%	13.7%	2.4%	3.54	3.51	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	24	135	563	134	36	12	75%	4.2	19.9%	6.2%	13.7%	2.4%	3.54	3.51	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	24	135	563	134	36	12	75%	4.2	23.8%	6.4%	17.4%	2.1%	3.54	3.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	3	3	16	68	13	5	2	100%	5.3	19.4%	7.2%	12.1%	2.6%	4.21	4.21	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	26	26	155	653	132	47	18	100%	5.9	20.2%	7.2%	12.9%	2.7%	4.19	4.17	+2.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	21	21	126	530	108	39	15	100%	6.0	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	2.8%	4.20	4.21	+1.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	20	20	120	508	103	38	15	100%	6.0	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	2.9%	4.26	4.30	+1.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	112	471	95	36	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	7.7%	12.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.43	+1.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	101	428	84	34	14	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	3.2%	4.51	4.60	+0.9
2033	31	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	90	382	74	32	13	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	3.4%	4.69	4.81	+0.6
2034	32	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	80	336	63	30	12	100%	6.1	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	3.7%	4.89	5.03	+0.3
2035	33	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	69	293	54	27	12	100%	5.8	18.4%	9.2%	9.1%	4.0%	5.12	5.28	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	75	317	64	23	8	100%	6.2	20.2%	7.2%	12.9%	2.5%	4.08	4.06	+1.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	83	350	71	26	9	100%	5.9	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	2.6%	4.09	4.10	+1.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	93	393	80	29	10	100%	5.8	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	2.7%	4.14	4.18	+1.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	92	388	78	30	11	100%	6.1	20.1%	7.7%	12.3%	2.8%	4.24	4.31	+1.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	88	372	73	30	11	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	3.0%	4.38	4.47	+0.8
2033	31	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	81	342	66	29	11	100%	5.8	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	3.2%	4.55	4.67	+0.5
2034	32	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	72	304	57	27	10	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	3.4%	4.74	4.88	+0.3
2035	33	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	64	270	50	25	10	100%	5.8	18.4%	9.2%	9.1%	3.7%	4.96	5.12	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	108	648	2736	539	218	80	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	2.9%	4.37	4.06	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	67	25	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	2.9%	4.37	4.06	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		87	78	365	1553	307	133	32	90%	4.2	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	2.1%	4.37	3.66	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	43	200	852	168	73	18	90%	4.2	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	2.1%	4.37	3.66	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 84 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.09 (+0.29)K% 18.8% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.80%	—	×0.860	16.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.27%	—	×0.900	5.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 50 IPFIP 1.70 → 2.43 (+0.73)K% 33.2% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.16%	—	×0.810	26.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.63%	—	×1.100	7.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.02%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.22%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.70 → 2.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 117 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.81 (+0.52)K% 24.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.17%	—	×0.810	19.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.16%	—	×1.100	10.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷1.183	×1.200	1.98%

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Eugene Emeralds · 53 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.77 (+0.86)K% 24.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.43%	—	×0.770	18.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.98%	—	×1.150	5.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷1.010	×1.250	2.80%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASan Jose Giants · 50 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.02 (+1.00)K% 24.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.77%	—	×0.740	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.93%	—	×1.180	14.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.92%	÷0.959	×1.300	1.24%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASan Jose Giants · 6 IPFIP 0.80 → 1.90 (+1.11)K% 40.9% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.91%	—	×0.740	30.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.180	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.890	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.80 → 1.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Whitman (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.22	20.2%	12.9%	401	+0.01	—	—	—
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	80
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	19.4%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.51	17.5%	8.3%	190	+0.30	4.18	539	80
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	80
Matthew Boyd L 2016 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	19.7%	7.0%	3.6%	.276	4.23	24.1%	17.0%	542	-0.04	2.22	1,457	80
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	79
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	78
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	77
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	77
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.2%	5.3%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	76
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	76
Brant Hurter L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	19.7%	5.4%	3.1%	.298	3.08	21.7%	12.6%	98	-0.72	2.84	440	76
Jeriome Robertson L 2003 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	13.9%	7.9%	3.2%	.295	7.27	8.0%	-1.3%	14	+2.57	4.70	175	76
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	75
Parker Messick L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	23.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.302	3.09	25.2%	18.3%	325	-0.27	2.97	580	75
Erik Bedard L 2004 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	19.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.317	3.28	23.8%	15.5%	520	-0.73	2.96	1,317	75
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	75
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	75
Matthew Kent L 2018 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	16.5%	6.4%	2.2%	.300	3.97	13.0%	5.6%	213	+0.24	3.13	821	75
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	75
Roenis Elías L 2014 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	20.6%	8.8%	2.4%	.285	4.39	17.8%	8.8%	336	+0.62	3.15	728	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	112	19.7%	7.8%	1.18	4.42
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Larry McWilliams ('78-'90, 10 WAR*)	7.8	130	19.0%*	8.1%*	1.24*	4.56*
Chris Capuano ('16)	7.1	119	19.5%	7.5%	1.23	4.38
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Greg Harris ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	130	19.7%*	7.9%*	1.40*	4.10*