Joe Whitman
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
+1.3
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.6 · 2028
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.8%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%11.1%
IP113
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.6peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | San Jose Giants | 6 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 13 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.86 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 23 | 23 | 103 | 439 | 108 | 37 | 7 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 4.63 | 3.91 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 26 | 26 | 117 | 513 | 124 | 47 | 10 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 1.9% | 5.29 | 3.78 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 3 | 3 | 14 | 56 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 27.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.59 | 3.88 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 113 | 475 | 99 | 46 | 12 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 126 | 531 | 118 | 49 | 14 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.29 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 126 | 532 | 113 | 49 | 14 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.25 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 24 | 24 | 133 | 562 | 121 | 51 | 15 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 124 | 51 | 15 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.24 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 124 | 52 | 15 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SF | 24 | 24 | 133 | 561 | 120 | 51 | 15 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 129 | 544 | 115 | 50 | 15 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 124 | 525 | 110 | 49 | 15 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 119 | 504 | 104 | 48 | 15 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 98 | 46 | 15 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 92 | 45 | 14 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 102 | 431 | 85 | 43 | 14 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 96 | 403 | 78 | 41 | 14 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 5.00 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 89 | 374 | 70 | 40 | 13 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.15 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 57 | 244 | 1046 | 210 | 101 | 21 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | 4.95 | 3.75 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 47 | 200 | 859 | 172 | 83 | 17 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | 4.95 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Whitman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.24 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 395 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 94 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 92 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 91 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 90 |
| David Parkinson L 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 89 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 89 |
| Hunter Owen L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 88 |
| Jackson Kent L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 88 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 87 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 87 |
| Gage Jump L 2024 · 3.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.19 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 113 | 86 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 86 |
| Adalberto Mejía L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.65 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 117 | -0.22 | 3.26 | 427 | 86 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 85 |
| Brycen Mautz L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .281 | 4.00 | 17.0% | -1.4% | 13 | +0.24 | 3.62 | 353 | 85 |
| Nick Maronde L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 84 |
| Carson Teel L 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.43 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 1.2% | .292 | 4.88 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 144 | +1.45 | 3.43 | 248 | 84 |
| Marco Tovar L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 84 |
| Ben Shields L 2027 · 3.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.23 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 3.05 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.18 | 3.05 | 147 | 84 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.75 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .333 | 4.87 | 16.4% | 0.1% | 47 | +1.12 | 3.56 | 280 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.6 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.6 | $14M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.3 | $12M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.2 | $12M | +$7M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.0 | $10M | +$5M |
| Totals | $15M | $77M | +$61M | ||