Joe Whitman
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.2 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%19.5%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 83% | 1.6 | 34.2% | 7.9% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 1.21 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 83% | 1.6 | 34.2% | 7.9% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 1.34 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 103 | 439 | 108 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 4.5 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 4.63 | 3.90 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 103 | 439 | 108 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 4.5 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 16.2% | 1.6% | 4.63 | 2.96 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 26 | 26 | 117 | 513 | 124 | 47 | 10 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 1.7% | 5.29 | 3.66 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 26 | 26 | 117 | 513 | 124 | 47 | 10 | 100% | 4.5 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 1.9% | 5.29 | 3.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 18 | 15 | 82 | 330 | 91 | 21 | 7 | 83% | 4.6 | 22.9% | 6.9% | 16.0% | 2.4% | 3.62 | 3.35 | +1.6 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 58 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 153 | 629 | 149 | 50 | 14 | — | — | 23.7% | 7.9% | 15.8% | 2.3% | 3.99 | 3.84 | +2.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 4.36 | 3.98 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 24 | 24 | 139 | 587 | 120 | 54 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 4.33 | 4.29 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 124 | 53 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.24 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 122 | 52 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 133 | 561 | 118 | 51 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.36 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 127 | 535 | 111 | 50 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.49 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 119 | 503 | 103 | 49 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.67 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 111 | 470 | 94 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.87 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 53 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 83 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.18 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 94 | 41 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 99 | 43 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.30 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 97 | 44 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 92 | 44 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 86 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 116 | 694 | 2929 | 606 | 275 | 79 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.03 | +11.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 175 | 79 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 73 | 69 | 312 | 1320 | 271 | 121 | 26 | 95% | 4.3 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 4.53 | 3.59 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 44 | 200 | 846 | 173 | 77 | 16 | 95% | 4.3 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 4.53 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Whitman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.27 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 415 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 134 | 86 |
| Adalberto Mejía L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.96 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .313 | 3.76 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 117 | -0.20 | 3.39 | 427 | 85 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 85 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.80 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.89 | 16.4% | 0.1% | 47 | +1.09 | 3.73 | 280 | 84 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 83 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.95 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.78 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.17 | 3.37 | 440 | 83 |
| Misael Siverio L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 82 |
| Brandyn Garcia L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.39 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 1.3% | .289 | 3.76 | 25.6% | 13.5% | 95 | +0.37 | 2.37 | 211 | 82 |
| Danny Duffy L 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.33 | 3.29 | 915 | 82 |
| Adam Scott L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.53 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.9% | .318 | 5.02 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 136 | +0.49 | 4.53 | 315 | 81 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 81 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.01 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .309 | 3.25 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 148 | -1.76 | 2.44 | 496 | 81 |
| David Parkinson L 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.55 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .303 | 5.56 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +2.01 | 3.08 | 517 | 81 |
| Chipper Smith L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 80 |
| Tyler DeLoach L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 19.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .332 | 2.97 | 21.7% | 12.4% | 63 | -1.27 | 2.97 | 202 | 80 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 80 |
| Brycen Mautz L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.64 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .281 | 4.54 | 19.8% | 2.8% | 69 | +0.90 | 3.61 | 409 | 80 |
| Reid Love L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.41 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 2.9% | .293 | 3.59 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 140 | -0.82 | 3.50 | 280 | 79 |
| Spencer Giesting L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.82 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 3.4% | .308 | 4.07 | 25.9% | 13.7% | 25 | -0.75 | 3.48 | 433 | 79 |
| Kyle Freeland L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.91 | 15.6% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .301 | 3.88 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 407 | -0.03 | 3.24 | 1,580 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 130 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 1.06 | 4.41 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |