Joe Whitman — OGILVIE

Joe Whitman P Sacramento River Cats

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION123 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%19.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	10	38	13	3	0	83%	1.6	34.2%	7.9%	26.3%	0.0%	1.86	1.21	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	10	38	13	3	0	83%	1.6	34.2%	7.9%	26.3%	0.0%	1.86	1.21	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	5	10	38	13	3	0	83%	1.6	34.2%	7.9%	26.3%	0.0%	1.86	1.34	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	103	439	108	37	7	100%	4.5	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	2.0%	4.63	3.89	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	103	439	108	37	7	100%	4.5	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	2.0%	4.63	3.89	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	103	439	108	37	7	100%	4.5	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	1.6%	4.63	2.96	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	26	26	117	513	124	47	10	100%	4.5	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	2.0%	5.29	3.81	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	26	26	117	513	124	47	10	100%	4.5	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	2.0%	5.29	3.81	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	26	26	117	513	124	47	10	100%	4.5	24.2%	9.2%	15.0%	1.9%	5.29	3.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	30	22	123	513	128	34	11	73%	4.1	20.5%	6.5%	14.0%	2.4%	3.58	3.51	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	30	22	123	513	128	34	11	73%	4.1	20.5%	6.5%	14.0%	2.4%	3.58	3.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	SF	10	10	50	196	65	13	2	100%	5.0	33.2%	6.6%	26.5%	1.0%	3.22	1.70	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	SF	20	12	73	317	63	21	9	60%	3.6	19.9%	6.6%	13.2%	2.8%	3.82	3.82	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SF	2	2	12	49	10	5	1	100%	5.8	19.5%	9.8%	9.6%	2.6%	4.49	4.49	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	SF	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.5%	9.8%	9.6%	2.4%	4.38	4.38	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	135	562	138	39	12	—	—	24.5%	6.9%	17.6%	2.2%	3.65	3.59	+2.1
FULL	24	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	19.5%	9.8%	9.6%	2.4%	4.38	4.00	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	139	587	120	55	15	100%	5.8	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	2.6%	4.39	4.35	+0.9
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	23	23	139	587	124	54	15	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.1%	11.9%	2.6%	4.33	4.30	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	23	23	137	578	122	53	16	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.1%	11.9%	2.7%	4.33	4.33	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	133	561	118	52	16	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.2%	11.7%	2.8%	4.38	4.42	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	21	21	127	535	111	51	16	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.48	4.55	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	20	20	119	503	103	49	16	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	3.1%	4.63	4.72	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	111	470	94	48	16	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.4%	4.81	4.93	-0.0
2034	32	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	103	434	85	46	16	100%	6.1	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	3.6%	5.01	5.15	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	67	283	58	26	7	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	2.4%	4.28	4.24	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	96	405	85	37	10	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.1%	11.9%	2.4%	4.22	4.19	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	18	18	108	456	96	42	11	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.1%	11.9%	2.5%	4.22	4.22	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	19	19	113	477	100	44	12	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.2%	11.7%	2.6%	4.26	4.30	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	19	19	112	473	98	45	13	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.5%	11.3%	2.7%	4.36	4.43	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	18	18	108	456	93	45	13	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	2.9%	4.50	4.59	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	SF	17	17	102	431	86	44	13	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.1%	4.67	4.79	-0.0
2034	32	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	96	405	79	43	14	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	3.3%	4.86	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		134	134	803	3392	697	325	94	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.42	4.09	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	174	81	23	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.42	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		85	76	353	1503	300	131	31	89%	4.2	20.0%	8.7%	11.2%	2.1%	4.41	3.67	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	43	200	851	170	74	18	89%	4.2	20.0%	8.7%	11.2%	2.1%	4.41	3.67	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Whitman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	19.5%	9.8%	2.6%	—	4.33	20.9%	11.7%	415	-0.16	—	—	—
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	86
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	86
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	85
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	84
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	83
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	83
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	83
Adalberto Mejía L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	18.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.313	3.67	19.5%	9.3%	117	-0.29	3.30	427	82
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	82
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	82
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	81
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	81
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	80
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	80
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	80
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	80
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	79
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	79
Kyle Freeland L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	15.6%	8.6%	2.2%	.301	4.08	18.3%	10.2%	407	+0.00	3.37	1,616	79
Logan Boyd L 2017 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	14.9%	10.2%	1.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	276	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	127	20.5%	9.6%	1.12	4.52
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32