Dylan Carmouche

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 25 LHP 6'5" / 233 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	27	24	122	3.38	3.28	25.4%	9.8%	—	K 19.0% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.35
2025	23	MIX2 levels	19	15	80	3.36	3.55	22.9%	7.0%	—	K 17.4% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.38
2026	24	MIX3 levels	21	8	54	7.21	5.35	21.4%	13.1%	—	K 15.6% · BB 12.9% · FIP 6.44
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	—	—	0	5.37	5.37	15.6%	11.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSF	4	4	25	5.23	5.22	16.9%	10.8%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSF	5	5	32	5.17	5.19	17.3%	10.8%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMatt Walker (age 25) · Jack Snodgrass (age 27) · John Koronka (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%15.6%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	122	508	129	50	10	89%	4.5	19.0%	11.6%	7.5%	2.5%	3.38	4.35	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	122	508	129	50	10	89%	4.5	19.0%	11.6%	7.5%	2.5%	3.38	4.35	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	122	508	129	50	10	89%	4.5	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	2.0%	3.38	3.28	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	80	328	75	23	9	79%	4.2	17.4%	7.8%	9.6%	3.2%	3.36	4.38	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	80	328	75	23	9	79%	4.2	17.4%	7.8%	9.6%	3.2%	3.36	4.38	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	15	80	328	75	23	9	79%	4.2	22.9%	7.0%	15.9%	2.7%	3.36	3.55	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	8	54	252	54	33	10	38%	2.6	15.6%	12.9%	2.7%	5.5%	7.21	6.44	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	8	54	252	54	33	10	38%	2.6	15.6%	12.9%	2.7%	5.5%	7.21	6.44	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	8	54	252	54	33	10	38%	2.6	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	4.0%	7.21	5.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.6%	11.1%	4.5%	3.3%	5.37	5.37	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	57	241	41	26	8	100%	5.7	16.9%	10.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.23	5.22	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	51	214	37	23	7	100%	6.3	17.3%	10.8%	6.6%	3.3%	5.17	5.19	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	47	199	35	22	7	100%	5.9	17.5%	10.8%	6.7%	3.4%	5.18	5.23	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	43	183	32	20	6	100%	6.2	17.4%	11.0%	6.4%	3.5%	5.26	5.33	+0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	39	165	28	19	6	100%	5.6	17.1%	11.3%	5.8%	3.7%	5.41	5.51	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	25	106	18	11	3	100%	6.2	16.9%	10.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.23	5.22	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	5	5	32	135	23	15	4	100%	6.4	17.3%	10.8%	6.6%	3.3%	5.17	5.19	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	35	148	26	16	5	100%	5.8	17.5%	10.8%	6.7%	3.4%	5.18	5.23	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	35	148	26	16	5	100%	5.8	17.4%	11.0%	6.4%	3.5%	5.26	5.33	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	34	144	25	16	5	100%	5.7	17.1%	11.3%	5.8%	3.7%	5.41	5.51	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		27	27	161	679	117	74	23	100%	6.0	17.3%	11.0%	6.3%	3.4%	5.25	4.92	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	146	92	29	100%	6.0	17.3%	11.0%	6.3%	3.4%	5.25	4.92	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		67	47	256	1088	193	117	37	70%	3.8	17.7%	10.7%	7.0%	3.4%	4.18	4.84	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	849	151	91	29	70%	3.8	17.7%	10.7%	7.0%	3.4%	4.18	4.84	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 29 IPFIP 5.61 → 6.76 (+1.14)K% 16.0% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.03%	—	×0.770	12.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.69%	—	×1.150	12.29%
HR / BF /BF	4.58%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.73%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.61 → 6.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL White Sox · 18 IPFIP 3.93 → 5.93 (+2.00)K% 30.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.86%	—	×0.680	20.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.250	13.89%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.19%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 5.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 7 IPFIP 5.95 → 6.86 (+0.91)K% 20.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.810	16.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.100	27.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.95 → 6.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Eugene Emeralds · 70 IPFIP 3.43 → 4.38 (+0.95)K% 22.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.58%	—	×0.770	17.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.81%	—	×1.150	7.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.51%	÷0.980	×1.250	3.20%

Result: FIP 3.43 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Giants · 11 IPFIP 4.31 → 5.77 (+1.46)K% 24.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.49%	—	×0.680	16.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×1.250	10.20%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷1.128	×1.400	5.07%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 5.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASan Jose Giants · 92 IPFIP 3.04 → 4.03 (+0.98)K% 24.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.740	17.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.93%	—	×1.180	12.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷0.959	×1.300	1.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Eugene Emeralds · 30 IPFIP 3.96 → 5.25 (+1.29)K% 29.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.32%	—	×0.770	22.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.77%	—	×1.150	7.78%
HR / BF /BF	4.51%	÷1.010	×1.250	5.59%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Carmouche (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	15.6%	11.1%	3.3%	—	5.21	17.2%	6.4%	155	-0.16	—	—	—
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	82
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	82
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	80
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	80
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	79
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	79
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	79
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	78
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	78
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	77
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	77
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	77
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	77
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	76
J.C. Romero L 2001 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP-	4.89	13.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.285	3.46	20.7%	10.3%	218	-1.43	2.88	652	76
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	75
Pedro Hernandez L 2013 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP	5.31	11.0%	8.4%	3.8%	.347	4.09	13.1%	4.2%	68	-1.22	4.09	124	75
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	75
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	75
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	49	16.9%	11.0%	1.31	5.27
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*