Dylan Carmouche
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'5" / 233 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2028
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%11.7%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 27 | 24 | 122 | 508 | 129 | 50 | 10 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 3.38 | 4.37 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 19 | 15 | 80 | 328 | 75 | 23 | 9 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 3.36 | 4.38 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 19.64 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 87 | 368 | 77 | 34 | 11 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 91 | 389 | 80 | 40 | 12 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 5.15 | 4.36 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 91 | 37 | 13 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 98 | 39 | 14 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 110 | 467 | 101 | 40 | 14 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 101 | 41 | 14 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 98 | 40 | 14 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 95 | 39 | 14 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 90 | 39 | 14 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.61 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 97 | 411 | 85 | 38 | 14 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 80 | 37 | 13 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 75 | 35 | 13 | 20.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 69 | 34 | 13 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 5.03 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | SF | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 70 | 30 | 12 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.89 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 64 | 29 | 12 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 4.99 | 5.04 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 39 | 206 | 857 | 157 | 90 | 25 | 18.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 3.66 | 4.47 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 38 | 200 | 831 | 152 | 87 | 24 | 18.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 3.66 | 4.47 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Carmouche (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.42 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 318 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 92 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 92 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 91 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 88 |
| Hunter Owen L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 88 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 88 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 87 |
| Nick Maronde L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 87 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 86 |
| Brad Hand L 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 85 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 85 |
| Jackson Kent L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 85 |
| David Parkinson L 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 85 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 84 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 84 |
| Sam Garcia L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 84 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 84 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .309 | 3.76 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 99 | -1.40 | 3.39 | 448 | 84 |
| Jake McSteen L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.14 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | .322 | 5.19 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 172 | +0.05 | 2.22 | 286 | 83 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $9M | $40M | +$31M | ||