Dylan Carmouche — OGILVIE

Dylan Carmouche P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 24 LHP 6'5" / 233 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%17.3%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	122	508	129	50	10	89%	4.5	19.0%	11.6%	7.5%	2.5%	3.38	4.35	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	122	508	129	50	10	89%	4.5	19.0%	11.6%	7.5%	2.5%	3.38	4.35	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	122	508	129	50	10	89%	4.5	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	2.0%	3.38	3.28	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	80	328	75	23	9	79%	4.2	17.4%	7.8%	9.6%	3.2%	3.36	4.38	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	80	328	75	23	9	79%	4.2	17.4%	7.8%	9.6%	3.2%	3.36	4.38	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	15	80	328	75	23	9	79%	4.2	22.9%	7.0%	15.9%	2.7%	3.36	3.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	21	8	54	252	54	33	10	38%	2.6	15.6%	12.9%	2.7%	5.5%	7.21	6.44	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	21	8	54	252	54	33	10	38%	2.6	15.6%	12.9%	2.7%	5.5%	7.21	6.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	SF	8	2	18	81	25	9	3	25%	2.2	30.9%	11.1%	19.8%	3.7%	8.15	3.93	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	SF	7	6	29	131	21	14	6	86%	4.1	16.0%	10.7%	5.3%	4.6%	5.59	5.61	—
2026	24	AA RAW	SF	6	0	7	40	8	10	1	0%	1.2	20.0%	25.0%	-5.0%	2.5%	11.57	5.95	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SF	5	0	6	24	4	2	1	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.8%	7.6%	3.0%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	59	276	58	35	11	—	—	21.1%	12.8%	8.3%	3.9%	6.99	6.30	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	112	471	86	44	14	100%	5.9	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.78	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	112	471	88	43	14	100%	5.9	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.73	4.72	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	110	464	87	43	14	100%	6.1	18.8%	9.2%	9.6%	3.1%	4.72	4.73	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	106	450	84	42	14	100%	5.9	18.8%	9.3%	9.5%	3.2%	4.76	4.80	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	102	429	80	41	14	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.5%	9.0%	3.3%	4.86	4.93	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	96	404	73	40	14	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.8%	8.4%	3.5%	5.01	5.11	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	48	203	37	19	6	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	2.8%	4.68	4.66	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	74	312	58	29	9	100%	6.2	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	2.8%	4.61	4.60	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	85	359	68	33	10	100%	6.1	18.8%	9.2%	9.6%	2.8%	4.59	4.60	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	90	380	71	35	11	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.3%	9.5%	2.9%	4.63	4.67	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	89	376	70	36	11	100%	5.9	18.6%	9.5%	9.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.79	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	86	363	66	36	12	100%	6.1	18.2%	9.8%	8.4%	3.2%	4.87	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	79	471	1991	370	188	59	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.4%	9.2%	2.9%	4.69	4.34	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	157	80	25	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.4%	9.2%	2.9%	4.69	4.34	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		67	47	256	1088	193	117	37	70%	3.8	17.7%	10.7%	7.0%	3.4%	4.18	4.84	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	849	151	91	29	70%	3.8	17.7%	10.7%	7.0%	3.4%	4.18	4.84	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Carmouche (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	17.3%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.74	18.6%	9.3%	333	-0.17	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	90
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	85
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	83
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	81
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	80
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80
Tim Berry L 2015 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	12.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.346	5.03	14.7%	-0.6%	113	+0.57	4.04	196	80
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	80
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	80
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	78
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	78
Matt Purke L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	12.5%	7.4%	1.5%	.340	3.78	20.6%	7.6%	169	-0.04	3.01	226	78
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	77
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	77
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	77
JP Sears L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	16.8%	8.9%	1.9%	.268	3.34	24.7%	17.8%	222	-0.51	2.18	958	77
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	77
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	77
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	101	18.4%	9.4%	1.22	4.82
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70