Dylan Carmouche
P
ACL White Sox
Age 24
LHP
6'5" / 233 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111120vR 129
ERA4.87
FIP4.87
K%17.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%7.9%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 122 | 508 | 129 | 50 | 10 | 89% | 4.5 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 3.38 | 4.37 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 122 | 508 | 129 | 50 | 10 | 89% | 4.5 | 25.4% | 9.8% | 15.6% | 2.0% | 3.38 | 3.28 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 15 | 80 | 328 | 75 | 23 | 9 | 79% | 4.2 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 3.36 | 4.42 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 15 | 80 | 328 | 75 | 23 | 9 | 79% | 4.2 | 22.9% | 7.0% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 3.36 | 3.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 12 | 0 | 18 | 86 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | 9.68 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 49 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.80 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 85 | 370 | 73 | 41 | 12 | — | — | 19.8% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 5.87 | 3.86 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 53 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.70 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 54 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 45 | 190 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 42 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 100 | 49 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.28 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 159 | 78 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 39 | 220 | 922 | 178 | 98 | 27 | 67% | 3.8 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 3.88 | 4.42 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 35 | 200 | 837 | 161 | 89 | 24 | 67% | 3.8 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 3.88 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Carmouche (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.87 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.73 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 203 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 85 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.23 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 3.54 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 62 | -1.69 | 3.54 | 186 | 83 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 83 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.14 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 3.95 | 15.5% | 4.2% | 121 | -1.19 | 3.67 | 288 | 81 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 80 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.26 | 16.9% | 10.6% | 73 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 174 | 80 |
| Nico Tellache L 2029 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 79 |
| JP Sears L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.0% | .268 | 3.25 | 24.7% | 17.8% | 222 | -0.65 | 2.18 | 927 | 79 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 79 |
| Matt Tracy L 2028 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 78 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 78 |
| Tim Berry L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 12.0% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .346 | 5.11 | 14.7% | -0.6% | 113 | +0.81 | 4.04 | 196 | 78 |
| Eric Wooten L 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 78 |
| Colin Rodgers L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 313 | 77 |
| Matt Purke L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 12.5% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .340 | 3.76 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 169 | -0.07 | 2.92 | 226 | 77 |
| Justin Marks L 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 76 |
| Jake Prizina L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.3% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.32 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 59 | -0.97 | 1.82 | 176 | 75 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2024 · 5.23 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.23 | 105 | 75 |
| Pat Peterson L 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 108 | 75 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.64 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .289 | 2.98 | 26.6% | 12.9% | 99 | -1.66 | 2.15 | 175 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 18.4% | 9.3% | 1.17 | 4.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |