Cole Kirschsieper P Jupiter Hammerheads
Age 25 LHP 5'11" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 73 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%22.7%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP73
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
K: +0.0 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+0KBB: -0.5 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-0BBCONTACT: -1.5 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +5.3 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+5STAMTotal WAR: +0.35 (73 IP)+0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.40.30.20.10.00.0+$6M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202221MIX2 levels41735102125%1.828.6%5.7%22.9%2.9%5.142.98
202221MIX2 levels41735102125%1.828.6%5.7%22.9%2.9%5.142.96
202322AJupiter Hammerheads241510544491451062%4.415.2%12.0%3.2%3.5%4.395.23
202322AJupiter Hammerheads241510544491451062%4.420.5%10.1%10.4%2.3%4.393.89
▸ 2026 Season
202625MLBMIA11117330970299100%6.722.7%9.5%13.2%3.0%4.424.42+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202726MLBMIA11117330971299100%6.722.9%9.4%13.5%3.0%4.404.39+0.4
202827MLBMIA10107230570299100%7.222.9%9.4%13.5%3.1%4.414.42+0.3
202928MLBMIA10107029668289100%7.022.9%9.6%13.3%3.2%4.464.50+0.2
203029MLBMIA10106728264289100%6.722.6%9.8%12.8%3.3%4.564.63+0.1
203130MLBMIA996326559279100%7.022.3%10.1%12.2%3.5%4.714.81-0.1
203231MLBMIA885924754269100%7.321.9%10.5%11.4%3.7%4.895.01-0.3
202726MLBMIA443113130124100%7.822.9%9.4%13.5%2.9%4.354.34+0.1
202827MLBMIA664519044186100%7.522.9%9.4%13.5%3.0%4.364.37+0.1
202928MLBMIA885322451217100%6.622.9%9.6%13.3%3.1%4.414.45+0.1
203029MLBMIA885422852227100%6.822.6%9.8%12.8%3.2%4.514.58-0.0
203130MLBMIA885422851238100%6.822.3%10.1%12.2%3.4%4.664.76-0.1
203231MLBMIA775222048238100%7.421.9%10.5%11.4%3.6%4.834.95-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career4141289122127512040100%7.122.6%9.8%12.7%3.2%4.544.22+4.0
/ 200 IP29292008441908328100%7.022.6%9.8%12.7%3.2%4.544.22+2.8
Career281611247977551657%4.016.1%11.5%4.6%3.4%4.435.07+0.4
/ 200 IP5029200858139992957%4.016.1%11.5%4.6%3.4%4.435.07+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Cole Kirschsieper (OGILVIE) 4.42 22.7%9.5%3.0% 4.44 22.9%13.4%216 +0.02
Ryan Magdic L 2026 · 3.64 FIP 25 SP- 3.64 18.3%6.7%2.3%.314 3.18 21.5%16.7%54 -0.46 3.18 150 82
Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.30 FIP 26 SP- 3.30 19.6%7.0%1.8%.252 4.86 13.0%4.2%106 +1.56 3.30 147 80
Tyler Alexander L 2028 · 5.27 FIP 27 SP- 5.27 21.7%9.8%5.0%.289 5.37 15.7%5.0%26 +0.10 5.27 128 79
Avery Weems L 2026 · 5.13 FIP 25 SP- 5.13 21.3%8.6%5.0%.323 5.19 20.5%12.3%38 +0.06 2.46 227 77
Brant Hurter L 2026 · 4.32 FIP 25 SP- 4.32 20.0%6.1%3.9%.298 3.14 22.6%13.2%88 -1.18 2.84 430 76
Nico Tellache L 2028 · 3.89 FIP 27 SP- 3.89 16.3%7.3%2.3%.373 4.65 13.4%4.8%78 +0.76 3.89 160 75
Edgar Barclay L 2026 · 4.79 FIP 25 SW 4.79 24.5%13.6%3.7%.307 5.60 16.5%4.9%157 +0.81 2.06 402 75
Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.67 FIP 25 SW 3.67 18.3%8.9%1.8%.359 3.64 16.3%8.9%48 -0.03 3.64 133 74
Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.84 FIP 25 SP- 3.84 19.2%12.8%1.4%.322 5.90 28.8%13.9%13 +2.06 3.84 249 74
Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 3.65 FIP 25 SW 3.65 17.6%6.0%2.3%.257 5.52 17.8%9.6%53 +1.87 3.65 116 74
Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.22 FIP 25 SW 4.22 22.6%12.9%2.5%.302 5.47 20.8%8.3%271 +1.25 3.71 484 74
Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 3.83 FIP 23 SP- 3.83 20.6%9.4%2.3%.275 3.83 160 74
Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 3.67 FIP 25 SP- 3.67 18.6%10.1%1.6%.355 5.01 14.7%3.6%93 +1.34 3.10 381 73
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 4.93 FIP 24 SP- 4.93 16.0%10.1%3.5%.289 4.93 116 73
Danny Wirchansky L 2028 · 4.98 FIP 27 SP- 4.98 16.2%7.4%4.2%.246 6.63 13.0%0.2%68 +1.65 4.98 179 73
Brent Headrick L 2026 · 4.55 FIP 25 SW 4.55 23.5%8.5%4.3%.299 3.08 27.3%19.5%111 -1.47 2.40 382 73
Eric Wooten L 2026 · 4.16 FIP 25 SP- 4.16 14.6%7.5%2.5%.316 4.16 116 72
Ken Waldichuk L 2026 · 4.90 FIP 25 SP- 4.90 20.7%11.0%3.9%.303 5.70 22.3%4.9%51 +0.80 3.42 432 72
Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.91 FIP 25 SP- 4.91 19.6%13.9%3.1%.273 4.29 200 72
Parker Mushinski L 2026 · 3.50 FIP 25 SW 3.50 24.7%9.0%2.5%.357 4.17 22.0%11.4%143 +0.67 3.21 439 71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION76822.6%9.7%1.254.54
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
Bryan Shaw ('23)86421.4%9.4%1.124.19
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67
José Ruiz ('24)55222.2%10.4%1.414.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)65726.2%9.9%1.394.33
Hansel Robles ('22)75925.3%10.1%1.163.86