Cole Kirschsieper
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
+1.1
WAR
Age 25
LHP
5'11" / 170 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.2 · 2027
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.2%
IP105
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 4 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 10 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.14 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 24 | 15 | 105 | 444 | 91 | 45 | 10 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 100 | 42 | 13 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 107 | 44 | 14 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 115 | 485 | 110 | 44 | 15 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 110 | 44 | 15 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 113 | 475 | 107 | 44 | 15 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 103 | 43 | 15 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 98 | 42 | 14 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 93 | 41 | 14 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 18 | 97 | 408 | 88 | 40 | 14 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 82 | 38 | 14 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 86 | 365 | 76 | 37 | 13 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.99 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 69 | 36 | 13 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.04 | 5.12 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 16 | 112 | 479 | 77 | 55 | 15 | 16.1% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.89 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 29 | 200 | 858 | 138 | 99 | 27 | 16.1% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.89 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Kirschsieper (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.38 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 342 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 88 |
| Ben Shields L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.23 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 3.05 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.18 | 3.05 | 147 | 88 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2023 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 85 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.86 | 16.6% | 9.5% | 17 | +1.66 | 3.32 | 248 | 84 |
| Matt Moore L 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.53 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.39 | 2.83 | 845 | 84 |
| Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 84 |
| Jackson Kent L 2023 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 83 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 82 |
| Brent Headrick L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.64 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 4.5% | .299 | 3.62 | 27.0% | 19.6% | 65 | -1.02 | 3.39 | 335 | 82 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 82 |
| Colton Gordon L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.02 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.75 | 19.8% | 14.1% | 157 | +0.73 | 2.72 | 463 | 82 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 82 |
| Brant Hurter L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 3.1% | .298 | 2.88 | 24.5% | 15.8% | 63 | -0.99 | 2.88 | 404 | 81 |
| Avery Weems L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 4.5% | .323 | 5.15 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.26 | 2.46 | 227 | 81 |
| Jack Choate L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 81 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 81 |
| Marco Tovar L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 81 |
| Justin Wrobleski L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.59 | 23.3% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .305 | 3.30 | 9.5% | 1.6% | 17 | -0.29 | 0.98 | 385 | 80 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2028 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.44 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | .289 | 5.28 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | -0.16 | 5.28 | 128 | 79 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Pre-Arb | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $22M | +$17M | ||