Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 6.2% | 12.5% | -6.2% | 6.2% | 37.80 | 7.59 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 6.2% | 12.5% | -6.2% | 6.2% | 37.80 | 13.30 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 28 | 20 | 96 | 419 | 115 | 50 | 8 | 71% | 3.4 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 4.89 | 4.49 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 28 | 20 | 96 | 419 | 115 | 50 | 8 | 71% | 3.4 | 27.4% | 11.9% | 15.5% | 1.9% | 4.89 | 3.35 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 31 | 0 | 60 | 263 | 61 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.9 | 17.9% | 14.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 3.60 | 4.12 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 31 | 0 | 60 | 263 | 61 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.9 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 1.5% | 3.60 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 1 | 57 | 249 | 55 | 35 | 4 | 3% | 1.8 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.97 | 4.79 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 1 | 57 | 249 | 55 | 35 | 4 | 3% | 1.8 | 22.1% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 1.6% | 3.97 | 3.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 21 | 0 | 24 | 111 | 27 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 23.3% | -4.6% | 2.3% | 2.25 | 5.74 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 37 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 67 | 293 | 64 | 45 | 7 | — | — | 21.8% | 15.2% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 3.89 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.3% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 37 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 17 | 71 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.42 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 178 | 107 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 114 | 21 | 238 | 1058 | 197 | 163 | 23 | 18% | 2.1 | 18.6% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 4.31 | 4.64 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 18 | 200 | 889 | 166 | 137 | 19 | 18% | 2.1 | 18.6% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 4.31 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Tulloch (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.80 | 20.6% | 8.5% | 42 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 86 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.82 | 2.92 | 226 | 86 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 85 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 83 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 83 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 82 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.01 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 49 | -0.26 | 2.69 | 221 | 82 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 82 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 82 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 4.1% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.66 | 3.46 | 145 | 82 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 82 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 82 |
| Rob Zastryzny L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.44 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | 4.82 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 142 | +0.38 | 3.26 | 634 | 82 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 81 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 175 | 81 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 81 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .272 | 4.99 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.11 | 3.88 | 256 | 80 |
| Will Lamb L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 80 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.64 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 3.0% | .269 | 4.43 | 17.2% | 1.8% | 74 | -0.21 | 3.79 | 330 | 80 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 43 | 20.4% | 12.3% | 1.05 | 4.80 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |