Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 5 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 2.3 | 50.0% | 6.8% | 43.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.26 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 5 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 2.3 | 50.0% | 6.8% | 43.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.01 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 15 | 98 | 424 | 120 | 29 | 16 | 60% | 3.9 | 21.5% | 7.9% | 13.6% | 4.7% | 4.78 | 4.88 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 15 | 98 | 424 | 120 | 29 | 16 | 60% | 3.9 | 28.3% | 6.8% | 21.5% | 3.8% | 4.78 | 3.66 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 18 | 111 | 481 | 102 | 38 | 17 | 60% | 3.7 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 3.90 | 4.80 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 18 | 111 | 481 | 102 | 38 | 17 | 60% | 3.7 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 3.90 | 4.28 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 48 | 219 | 38 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.9 | 15.1% | 15.0% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 5.40 | 5.17 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 48 | 219 | 38 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.9 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.40 | 4.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | TB | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.31 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 89 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 85 | 33 | 268 | 1168 | 227 | 112 | 43 | 39% | 3.2 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 4.33 | 4.71 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 25 | 200 | 871 | 170 | 83 | 32 | 39% | 3.2 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 4.33 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Patrick Wicklander (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.69 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 36 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .264 | 5.63 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.74 | 3.12 | 451 | 81 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 77 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 75 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 74 |
| Ethan Flanagan L 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.23 | 21.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 102 | 73 |
| Nico Tellache L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 73 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 72 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 258 | 72 |
| Stu Flesland III L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 211 | 72 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 71 |
| Adam Scott L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.27 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 4.1% | .317 | 4.96 | 16.5% | -3.6% | 46 | -0.31 | 4.53 | 315 | 71 |
| Joe Adametz L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.13 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 236 | 70 |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 70 |
| Hunter Barco L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 212 | 70 |
| Austin Hamilton L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 135 | 69 |
| Rito Lugo L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 176 | 69 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 69 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 68 |
| Jake Drehoff L 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .418 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 153 | 68 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.99 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 3.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 196 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 36 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 1.18 | 4.68 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |