Bryce Hubbart
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 25
LHP
5'11" / 190 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109119vR 128
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
K%20.5%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%8.7%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 20% | 1.5 | 37.5% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 1.23 | 2.31 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 20% | 1.5 | 37.5% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 1.23 | 2.28 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 16 | 7 | 45 | 222 | 51 | 49 | 3 | 44% | 2.8 | 17.0% | 26.0% | -9.0% | 1.6% | 4.96 | 5.82 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 16 | 7 | 45 | 222 | 51 | 49 | 3 | 44% | 2.8 | 23.0% | 22.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 4.96 | 4.95 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 11 | 76 | 343 | 70 | 40 | 11 | 48% | 3.3 | 15.5% | 13.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 5.42 | 5.10 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 11 | 76 | 343 | 70 | 40 | 11 | 48% | 3.3 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 5.42 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 1 | 46 | 221 | 52 | 29 | 4 | 5% | 2.1 | 17.5% | 15.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 5.09 | 4.73 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 1 | 46 | 221 | 52 | 29 | 4 | 5% | 2.1 | 23.5% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 1.8% | 5.09 | 3.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 15 | 1 | 28 | 114 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 7% | 1.8 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 5.5% | 6.51 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 59 | 245 | 56 | 24 | 9 | — | — | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 5.61 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.5% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 29 | 0 | 31 | 129 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 28 | 0 | 30 | 125 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 50 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.39 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 178 | 96 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 81 | 21 | 203 | 932 | 168 | 155 | 24 | 26% | 2.5 | 18.0% | 16.7% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 5.24 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 21 | 200 | 920 | 166 | 153 | 24 | 26% | 2.5 | 18.0% | 16.7% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 5.24 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryce Hubbart (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 20.5% | 11.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.76 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 91 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 82 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .338 | 3.46 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.54 | 1.78 | 560 | 80 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 79 |
| Braulio Lara L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 78 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 78 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 77 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 76 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 3.96 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 25 | -0.18 | 3.26 | 128 | 76 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 76 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 25.3% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .284 | 5.07 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 42 | +0.50 | 3.33 | 152 | 76 |
| Russell Smith L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 1.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 175 | 76 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.22 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 96 | +0.29 | 3.65 | 308 | 76 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 76 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2029 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 76 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 75 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 75 |
| Erik Rivera L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 122 | 75 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.84 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.14 | 3.54 | 364 | 75 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.70 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .335 | 4.27 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.57 | 3.54 | 206 | 75 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 201 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 31 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 1.13 | 4.77 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |