Bryce Hubbart — OGILVIE

Bryce Hubbart P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 25 LHP 5'11" / 190 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%17.7%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%2.7%

ROS IP31

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	7	32	12	6	0	20%	1.5	37.5%	18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	1.23	2.31	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	7	32	12	6	0	20%	1.5	37.5%	18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	1.23	2.28	—
2023	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	16	7	45	222	51	49	3	44%	2.8	17.0%	26.0%	-9.0%	1.7%	4.96	5.87	—
2023	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	16	7	45	222	51	49	3	44%	2.8	17.0%	26.0%	-9.0%	1.7%	4.96	5.87	—
2023	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	16	7	45	222	51	49	3	44%	2.8	23.0%	22.1%	0.9%	1.4%	4.96	4.95	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	11	76	343	70	40	11	48%	3.3	15.5%	13.8%	1.7%	3.5%	5.42	5.45	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	11	76	343	70	40	11	48%	3.3	15.5%	13.8%	1.7%	3.5%	5.42	5.45	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	11	76	343	70	40	11	48%	3.3	20.4%	11.7%	8.7%	3.2%	5.42	4.71	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	46	221	52	29	4	5%	2.1	17.5%	15.4%	2.1%	2.2%	5.09	4.79	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	46	221	52	29	4	5%	2.1	17.5%	15.4%	2.1%	2.2%	5.09	4.79	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	46	221	52	29	4	5%	2.1	23.5%	13.1%	10.4%	1.8%	5.09	3.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	24	1	43	186	52	17	8	4%	1.8	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	5.6%	7.38	5.76	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	24	1	43	186	52	17	8	4%	1.8	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	5.6%	7.38	5.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	CIN	2	0	4	18	3	1	1	0%	2.0	16.7%	5.6%	11.1%	5.6%	6.75	5.45	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	CIN	1	0	3	11	6	0	0	0%	3.0	54.5%	0.0%	54.5%	0.0%	0.00	-1.51	—
2026	25	AA RAW	CIN	20	1	34	149	42	16	7	5%	1.7	28.2%	10.7%	17.4%	4.7%	7.60	4.66	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CIN	1	0	1	8	1	0	0	0%	1.3	12.5%	0.0%	12.5%	0.0%	20.25	2.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	65	0	69	290	55	42	9	0%	1.1	19.0%	14.4%	4.5%	2.9%	5.35	5.32	-0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	64	0	68	286	55	40	9	0%	1.1	19.3%	14.1%	5.2%	3.0%	5.28	5.29	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	63	0	66	277	54	39	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	14.0%	5.4%	3.1%	5.28	5.32	-0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	60	0	63	265	51	37	9	0%	1.0	19.2%	14.1%	5.1%	3.2%	5.36	5.43	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	29	0	30	127	24	18	4	0%	1.0	19.0%	14.4%	4.5%	2.9%	5.35	5.32	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	41	0	43	182	35	26	5	0%	1.0	19.3%	14.1%	5.2%	3.0%	5.28	5.29	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	48	0	50	211	41	30	7	0%	1.0	19.4%	14.0%	5.4%	3.1%	5.28	5.32	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	49	0	51	215	41	30	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	14.1%	5.1%	3.2%	5.36	5.43	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	0	174	734	141	104	23	0%	1.0	19.3%	14.2%	5.1%	3.1%	5.32	4.96	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	120	26	0%	1.1	19.3%	14.2%	5.1%	3.1%	5.32	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		90	21	218	1004	184	167	31	23%	2.4	18.3%	16.7%	1.7%	3.1%	5.50	5.35	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	19	200	923	169	154	28	23%	2.4	18.3%	16.7%	1.7%	3.1%	5.50	5.35	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Hubbart (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	17.7%	15.1%	2.9%	—	5.31	19.2%	5.0%	202	-0.20	—	—	—
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	83
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	82
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	81
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	79
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	79
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	79
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	79
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	78
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.83	14.4%	3.1%	142	-0.91	3.41	239	78
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	78
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	77
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	77
Anderson Polanco L 2018 · 5.95 FIP	25	SW	5.95	19.9%	20.9%	3.4%	.298	5.09	18.9%	2.6%	47	-0.86	4.10	316	77
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	77
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	76
Fred Schlichtholz L 2021 · 4.63 FIP	25	SU	4.63	15.5%	13.4%	2.1%	.343	3.49	22.3%	16.4%	35	-1.14	3.49	175	76
Will Lamb L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	15.3%	11.7%	4.3%	.280	5.78	20.0%	6.0%	67	+0.12	3.64	178	76
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	76
Aaron Brown L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	17.6%	1.6%	.348	4.38	19.8%	5.2%	127	-0.58	4.04	269	76
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	19.1%	14.3%	1.18	5.34
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91