Rob Zastryzny

P Nashville Sounds

Age 35 LHP 6'3" / 231 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	32	MIX2 levels	39	3	37	2.65	2.75	29.5%	8.1%	0.8	K 28.0% · BB 8.2% · FIP 3.44
2025	33	MIX2 levels	48	2	41	4.17	4.22	21.9%	6.2%	0.2	K 20.4% · BB 6.0% · FIP 4.23
2026	34	MIX2 levels	13	3	11	3.27	1.92	25.6%	7.0%	—	K 25.6% · BB 7.0% · FIP 1.82
2027PROJ	35	MLBMIL	15	0	16	4.16	4.25	23.0%	8.2%	0.1
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBMIL	1	0	1	4.44	4.62	21.9%	8.8%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	37	MLBMIL	—	—	0	4.76	4.99	20.8%	9.3%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs80

K%45

FB Velo14

CompsHisanori Takahashi (age 35) · Heriberto Ruelas (age 35) · Raul Valdes (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.16

FIP4.25

K%23.0%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p9032.2%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p800.283

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	65	299	52	30	9	100%	4.3	13.8%	10.9%	2.9%	3.7%	5.98	5.33	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	65	299	52	30	9	100%	4.3	17.4%	10.0%	7.4%	3.0%	5.98	4.69	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	24	152	630	136	55	13	75%	4.7	18.9%	9.3%	9.6%	2.5%	3.98	4.03	+2.5
2016	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	24	152	630	136	55	13	75%	4.7	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	2.1%	3.98	3.51	+3.5
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	10	69	303	55	22	9	48%	3.3	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	4.0%	5.77	4.88	-0.3
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	10	69	303	55	22	9	48%	3.3	18.2%	7.3%	10.9%	3.0%	5.77	4.16	+0.3
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	62	265	53	29	5	3%	1.6	18.4%	11.0%	7.4%	2.5%	3.94	4.31	+0.2
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	62	265	53	29	5	3%	1.6	20.0%	10.9%	9.1%	1.9%	3.94	3.85	+0.5
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	113	504	104	39	17	83%	4.9	17.9%	8.2%	9.7%	3.5%	5.58	4.53	—
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	113	504	104	39	17	83%	4.9	20.6%	7.7%	12.9%	3.4%	5.58	4.25	—
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	1	30	137	44	15	7	4%	1.2	26.9%	11.8%	15.2%	6.5%	3.56	5.87	—
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	1	30	137	44	15	7	4%	1.2	32.1%	10.9%	21.2%	5.1%	3.56	4.68	—
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	6	59	257	71	21	6	15%	1.5	24.8%	8.7%	16.1%	2.8%	3.64	3.64	+0.6
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	6	59	257	71	21	6	15%	1.5	27.6%	8.2%	19.5%	2.3%	3.64	3.08	+1.0
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	2	37	164	31	13	2	6%	1.0	17.5%	7.9%	9.7%	1.3%	4.62	3.31	+0.5
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	2	37	164	31	13	2	6%	1.0	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	1.2%	4.62	3.18	+0.6
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	3	37	149	44	12	3	8%	1.0	28.0%	8.2%	19.7%	3.0%	2.65	3.44	+0.5
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	3	37	149	44	12	3	8%	1.0	28.0%	8.2%	19.7%	3.0%	2.65	3.44	+0.5
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	3	37	149	44	12	3	8%	1.0	29.5%	8.1%	21.5%	2.0%	2.65	2.75	+0.8
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	2	41	178	39	11	7	4%	0.9	20.4%	6.0%	14.5%	3.8%	4.17	4.23	+0.2
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	2	41	178	39	11	7	4%	0.9	20.4%	6.0%	14.5%	3.8%	4.17	4.23	+0.2
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	2	41	178	39	11	7	4%	0.9	21.9%	6.2%	15.7%	3.9%	4.17	4.22	+0.2
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	3	11	43	11	3	0	23%	0.8	25.6%	7.0%	18.6%	0.0%	3.27	1.82	—
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	3	11	43	11	3	0	23%	0.8	25.6%	7.0%	18.6%	0.0%	3.27	1.82	—
2026	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	3	11	43	11	3	0	23%	0.8	25.6%	7.0%	18.6%	0.0%	3.27	1.92	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			80	6	89	389	74	37	6	8%	1.1	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	1.5%	3.84	3.56	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	MIL	15	0	16	68	16	6	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	3.1%	4.16	4.25	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	MIL	112	0	118	498	109	44	17	0%	1.1	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	3.4%	4.44	4.62	-0.1
2029	37	MLB MLE	MIL	83	0	87	369	77	34	14	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.3%	11.5%	3.8%	4.76	4.99	-0.4
2028	36	MLB CTX	MIL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	3.4%	4.44	4.62	-0.0
2029	37	MLB CTX	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	9.3%	11.5%	3.8%	4.76	4.99	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	6	90	394	75	37	6	7%	1.1	19.1%	9.5%	9.6%	1.6%	3.85	3.55	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	13	200	874	166	82	13	7%	1.1	19.1%	9.5%	9.6%	1.6%	3.85	3.55	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		331	86	676	2929	570	264	92	26%	2.0	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.1%	4.53	4.32	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	25	200	867	169	78	27	26%	2.0	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.1%	4.53	4.32	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 9 IPFIP 1.65 → 1.88 (+0.23)K% 25.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.860	22.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×0.900	5.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.65 → 1.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 19 IPFIP 4.39 → 4.57 (+0.18)K% 22.4% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.35%	—	×0.860	19.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.71%	—	×0.900	4.24%
HR / BF /BF	4.71%	÷1.111	×1.100	4.66%

Result: FIP 4.39 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 30 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.44 (+0.56)K% 32.5% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.50%	—	×0.860	27.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.17%	—	×0.900	8.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.909	×1.100	3.02%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 16 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.36 (+0.27)K% 23.9% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.88%	—	×0.860	20.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.49%	—	×0.900	1.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷1.095	×1.100	1.50%

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 55 IPFIP 3.14 → 3.64 (+0.51)K% 28.2% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.22%	—	×0.880	24.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.30%	—	×1.050	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷0.978	×1.100	2.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 29 IPFIP 4.80 → 5.87 (+1.07)K% 30.6% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.60%	—	×0.880	26.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.19%	—	×1.050	11.75%
HR / BF /BF	5.22%	÷0.886	×1.100	6.49%

Result: FIP 4.80 → 5.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 94 IPFIP 4.55 → 4.85 (+0.30)K% 19.7% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.72%	—	×0.880	17.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.28%	—	×1.050	7.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.99%	÷1.073	×1.100	4.09%

Result: FIP 4.55 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATulsa Drillers · 19 IPFIP 2.23 → 2.78 (+0.54)K% 25.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.64%	—	×0.810	20.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.26%	—	×1.100	11.28%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.909	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.23 → 2.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rob Zastryzny (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.78	21.4%	12.4%	205	+0.53	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	82
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	48
Raul Valdes L 2013 · 4.07 FIP	35	SU	4.07	24.3%	5.3%	4.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	160	45
Brian Shouse L 2004 · 3.47 FIP	35	SU	3.47	18.5%	8.2%	1.6%	.250	3.57	14.8%	8.9%	139	+0.10	2.32	339	45
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	44
Tim Byrdak L 2009 · 5.07 FIP	35	SU	5.07	22.2%	13.8%	3.8%	.185	3.48	23.8%	13.5%	107	-1.59	2.85	320	43
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	43
Hideki Okajima L 2010 · 4.27 FIP	34	SU	4.27	15.5%	7.0%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	238	41
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	41
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	38
Mike Zagurski L 2018 · 3.12 FIP	35	SU	3.12	30.4%	9.3%	2.6%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	36
John Bale L 2009 · 4.31 FIP	35	SU	4.31	17.6%	11.8%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	36
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	35
Scott Rice L 2015 · 3.67 FIP	33	SU	3.67	22.9%	17.2%	0.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	31
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	31
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	29
Luke Westphal L 2024 · 5.19 FIP	35	SW	5.19	15.7%	16.4%	2.4%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	28
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	26
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	26
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	26

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	92	21.5%	9.0%	1.16	4.28
Mel Queen ('66-'72, 4 WAR*)	1.9	97	24.2%*	9.0%*	1.27*	3.77*
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Roenis Elías ('22)	2.0	99	19.6%	9.0%	1.02	3.96
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15