Jake Bennett — OGILVIE

Jake Bennett P Boston Red Sox

Age 25 LHP 6'6" / 234 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7483vR 92

ERA3.64

FIP3.64

K%18.7%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF3550

CTRL6060

CMD4545

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.268

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+1.3	$11M	+$10M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$17M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	22	MIX	2 levels	15	15	63	258	73	16	4	100%	4.2	21.2%	7.2%	13.9%	2.4%	3.14	3.54	—
2023	22	MIX	2 levels	15	15	63	258	73	16	4	100%	4.2	28.3%	6.2%	22.1%	1.6%	3.14	2.37	—
2025	24	MIX	3 levels	19	18	75	297	64	19	3	95%	4.0	16.4%	7.7%	8.7%	1.4%	2.27	3.48	—
2025	24	MIX	3 levels	19	18	75	297	64	19	3	95%	4.0	21.5%	6.4%	15.2%	1.0%	2.27	2.68	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	17	17	87	339	76	16	5	100%	5.1	21.0%	4.9%	16.1%	1.5%	2.17	2.79	+2.4
ROS	25	MLB	BOS	5	5	32	134	25	9	3	100%	6.4	18.7%	6.7%	12.0%	2.3%	3.64	3.64	+0.3
ROS	25	MLB	BOS	5	5	32	135	25	9	3	100%	6.4	18.7%	6.7%	12.0%	2.3%	3.64	3.64	+0.3
2026 TOT	25	MLB	BOS	—	—	119	473	101	25	8	—	—	21.4%	5.3%	16.1%	1.7%	2.56	3.01	+3.3
2026 FULL	25	MLB	BOS	—	—	79	335	101	25	8	—	—	30.1%	7.5%	22.7%	2.4%	3.84	2.83	+2.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	BOS	12	12	70	296	55	20	7	100%	5.8	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	2.4%	4.10	4.09	+0.6
2028	27	MLB	BOS	12	12	69	291	55	20	7	100%	5.8	19.0%	6.9%	12.0%	2.5%	4.13	4.14	+0.5
2029	28	MLB	BOS	11	11	67	282	54	20	7	100%	6.1	19.1%	7.2%	11.9%	2.6%	4.20	4.23	+0.4
2030	29	MLB	BOS	11	11	64	270	51	20	8	100%	5.8	18.9%	7.5%	11.5%	2.8%	4.30	4.37	+0.2
2031	30	MLB	BOS	10	10	60	254	47	20	8	100%	6.0	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	3.0%	4.45	4.54	+0.0
2032	31	MLB	BOS	9	9	56	236	43	19	8	100%	6.2	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	3.2%	4.63	4.74	-0.1
2033	32	MLB	BOS	9	9	52	219	39	19	8	100%	5.8	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.5%	4.83	4.97	-0.3
2027	26	MLB	BOS	11	11	66	279	52	19	7	100%	6.0	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	2.4%	4.11	4.10	+0.4
2028	27	MLB	BOS	11	11	66	279	53	19	7	100%	6.0	19.0%	6.9%	12.0%	2.5%	4.14	4.15	+0.4
2029	28	MLB	BOS	11	11	64	270	52	19	7	100%	5.8	19.1%	7.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.21	4.24	+0.3
2030	29	MLB	BOS	10	10	61	258	49	19	7	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.5%	11.5%	2.8%	4.31	4.38	+0.1
2031	30	MLB	BOS	10	10	57	241	45	19	7	100%	5.7	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	3.0%	4.46	4.55	+0.0
2032	31	MLB	BOS	9	9	53	224	41	18	7	100%	5.9	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	3.2%	4.64	4.75	-0.1
2033	32	MLB	BOS	8	8	49	207	37	18	7	100%	6.1	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.5%	4.84	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			84	84	495	2072	387	147	56	100%	5.9	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	2.7%	4.15	3.91	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	837	156	59	23	100%	5.9	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	2.7%	4.15	3.91	+3.5
Career	—			51	50	225	894	174	58	16	98%	4.4	19.5%	6.5%	13.0%	1.7%	2.48	3.23	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—			45	44	200	793	155	52	14	98%	4.4	19.5%	6.5%	13.0%	1.7%	2.48	3.23	+5.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Bennett (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	16.4%	7.8%	2.6%	—	4.15	18.9%	11.9%	206	-0.37	—	—	—
Sebastian Gongora L 2025 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	18.5%	7.5%	2.4%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	152	82
Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	16.0%	7.6%	1.1%	.301	4.35	16.0%	3.1%	177	+1.02	3.33	457	79
James Paxton L 2027 · 4.26 FIP	26	SP	4.26	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	3.00	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.26	2.48	924	79
Connor Wietgrefe L 2025 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	18.7%	8.5%	3.0%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	200	79
Kyle Twomey L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	14.8%	7.9%	1.9%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	141	79
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.95 FIP	25	SP	3.95	16.5%	8.6%	2.1%	.313	3.78	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.17	3.37	440	79
Zach Thornton L 2025 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	20.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	221	79
Aríel Miranda L 2027 · 3.38 FIP	26	SP	3.38	18.3%	10.2%	0.9%	.280	5.41	19.2%	10.2%	364	+2.03	3.38	431	78
Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP	4.54	16.0%	8.0%	3.2%	.294	4.08	19.8%	6.6%	45	-0.46	3.65	328	78
Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	16.9%	6.3%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	174	77
Dalton Pence L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	22.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	153	77
Jordan Fowler L 2025 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	13.2%	7.9%	2.4%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	124	77
Ryan Bollinger L 2028 · 3.53 FIP	27	SP	3.53	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	112	75
Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	3.87	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.01	3.39	261	75
Felix Doubront L 2028 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	18.0%	8.4%	2.2%	.304	4.45	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.58	3.39	291	75
Eric Jokisch L 2027 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP	4.47	11.1%	7.1%	2.6%	.307	4.10	14.7%	6.8%	342	-0.37	3.80	412	75
Colton Gordon L 2026 · 4.19 FIP	25	SP	4.19	20.9%	7.8%	3.4%	.286	4.64	18.9%	13.6%	222	+0.45	2.76	527	74
Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.83 FIP	25	SP-	3.83	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	109	74
Brett Oberholtzer L 2027 · 4.08 FIP	26	SP	4.08	15.7%	6.4%	2.7%	.299	4.73	13.8%	5.9%	334	+0.65	3.98	442	74
Marco Tovar L 2027 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.62	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.83	3.79	327	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	63	18.3%	7.5%	1.09	4.37
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Luis Cessa ('23)	8	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Blaine Hardy ('19)	5	50	18.6%	7.7%	1.11	3.91
Robert Gsellman ('21)	5	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38