Jake Bennett

P Boston Red Sox

Age 26 LHP 6'6" / 234 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX2 levels	15	15	63	3.14	2.37	28.3%	6.2%	—	K 21.2% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.41
2025	24	MIX3 levels	19	18	75	2.27	2.68	21.5%	6.4%	—	K 16.4% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.45
2026	25	MIX2 levels	29	28	153	3.12	3.11	21.6%	4.6%	4.3	K 20.6% · BB 4.4% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	26	MLBBOS	14	14	86	3.73	3.89	19.8%	4.6%	1.6
2028PROJ93% MLB	27	MLBBOS	15	15	89	3.81	3.89	19.8%	4.6%	1.6
2029PROJ94% MLB	28	MLBBOS	14	14	81	3.91	3.97	19.7%	4.8%	1.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.680First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs77

K%35

FB Velo26

Form4.21 ERA (proj 3.73) · K 23.3% (proj 19.8%) · BB 2.9% (proj 4.6%) ▲ last 60d · 26 IP through Oct 27

CompsColton Gordon (age 25) · Adam Morgan (age 26) · Dylan Dodd (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8492vR 100

ERA3.73

FIP3.89

K%19.8%

BB%4.6%

K-BB%15.3%

Proj IP94

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$42M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p770.286

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.680 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$12M	+$12M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$12M	+$11M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.1M
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$43M	+$36M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	63	258	73	16	4	100%	4.2	21.2%	7.2%	13.9%	2.2%	3.14	3.41	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	63	258	73	16	4	100%	4.2	28.3%	6.2%	22.1%	1.6%	3.14	2.37	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	75	297	64	19	3	95%	4.0	16.4%	7.7%	8.7%	1.4%	2.27	3.45	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	75	297	64	19	3	95%	4.0	16.4%	7.7%	8.7%	1.4%	2.27	3.45	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	75	297	64	19	3	95%	4.0	21.5%	6.4%	15.2%	1.0%	2.27	2.68	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	153	612	132	28	14	97%	5.3	20.6%	4.4%	16.2%	2.4%	3.12	3.22	+4.1
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	153	612	132	28	14	97%	5.3	20.6%	4.4%	16.2%	2.4%	3.12	3.22	+4.1
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	153	612	132	28	14	97%	5.3	21.6%	4.6%	17.0%	2.3%	3.12	3.11	+4.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	19	113	455	91	19	12	95%	5.7	20.0%	4.2%	15.8%	2.6%	3.65	3.37	+2.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BOS	14	14	86	363	72	17	10	100%	6.1	19.8%	4.6%	15.3%	2.7%	3.73	3.89	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	96	403	80	19	11	100%	6.0	19.8%	4.6%	15.2%	2.8%	3.85	3.93	+1.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	87	367	72	18	11	100%	6.2	19.7%	4.8%	14.9%	2.9%	3.95	4.01	+1.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	76	321	61	16	10	100%	5.8	19.1%	5.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.08	4.17	+1.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	64	269	49	14	9	100%	5.8	18.4%	5.3%	13.1%	3.2%	4.26	4.38	+0.8
2032	31	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	50	213	38	12	7	100%	6.3	17.6%	5.7%	12.0%	3.5%	4.47	4.61	+0.5
2033	32	MLB MLE	BOS	6	6	37	156	26	9	6	100%	6.2	16.9%	6.1%	10.8%	3.7%	4.71	4.87	+0.2
2034	33	MLB MLE	BOS	4	4	25	106	17	7	4	100%	6.2	16.0%	6.5%	9.5%	4.0%	4.97	5.15	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	89	376	74	17	10	100%	5.9	19.8%	4.6%	15.2%	2.7%	3.81	3.89	+1.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	81	342	67	16	10	100%	5.8	19.7%	4.8%	14.9%	2.8%	3.91	3.97	+1.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	72	304	58	15	9	100%	6.0	19.1%	5.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.04	4.13	+1.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	60	253	47	13	8	100%	6.0	18.4%	5.3%	13.1%	3.2%	4.22	4.34	+0.7
2032	31	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	48	203	36	11	7	100%	6.0	17.6%	5.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.42	4.56	+0.4
2033	32	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	35	148	25	9	5	100%	5.8	16.9%	6.1%	10.8%	3.6%	4.66	4.82	+0.2
2034	33	MLB CTX	BOS	4	4	24	101	16	7	4	100%	6.0	16.0%	6.5%	9.5%	3.9%	4.92	5.10	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	87	523	2185	415	109	65	99%	5.9	19.0%	5.0%	14.0%	3.0%	4.03	3.76	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	835	159	42	25	99%	5.9	19.0%	5.0%	14.0%	3.0%	4.03	3.76	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		63	61	291	1167	230	69	24	97%	4.6	19.7%	5.9%	13.8%	2.1%	2.91	3.32	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	802	158	47	17	97%	4.6	19.7%	5.9%	13.8%	2.1%	2.91	3.32	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 39 IPFIP 2.32 → 2.63 (+0.31)K% 26.1% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.11%	—	×0.860	22.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.73%	—	×0.900	5.16%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.40%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 2.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 46 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.45 (+0.51)K% 17.9% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.93%	—	×0.810	14.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.98%	—	×1.100	6.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷0.963	×1.200	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 24 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.45 (+0.86)K% 26.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.37%	—	×0.770	20.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.79%	—	×1.150	10.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷0.967	×1.250	1.42%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 6 IPFIP 0.41 → 1.11 (+0.70)K% 31.8% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.740	23.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.040	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 0.41 → 1.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 42 IPFIP 1.61 → 2.72 (+1.11)K% 32.9% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.93%	—	×0.740	24.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×1.180	5.76%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷0.917	×1.300	1.73%

Result: FIP 1.61 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 21 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.62 (+0.99)K% 20.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.21%	—	×0.770	15.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.51%	—	×1.150	9.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷0.913	×1.250	2.91%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Bennett (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.03	19.6%	14.8%	258	+0.14	—	—	—
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	77
Adam Morgan L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	26	SP	4.10	19.9%	5.2%	3.7%	.315	3.66	24.3%	16.6%	151	-0.44	3.45	522	76
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	74
Tyler Anderson L 2016 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	20.2%	5.9%	2.1%	.310	4.28	22.3%	14.4%	295	+0.98	3.10	1,288	72
Tim Cooney L 2015 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	18.0%	5.1%	2.4%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	120	72
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	71
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	71
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	71
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	71
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	70
Brant Hurter L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	19.7%	5.4%	3.1%	.298	3.08	21.7%	12.6%	98	-0.72	2.84	440	70
Nick Bush L 2022 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP	4.76	19.3%	4.3%	5.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	320	70
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	69
Tyler Skaggs L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP	4.23	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.310	3.51	23.9%	16.0%	205	-0.72	3.18	553	69
Evan Grills L 2018 · 3.41 FIP	26	SP	3.41	18.6%	5.0%	2.3%	.327	3.54	14.8%	7.8%	43	+0.13	3.41	309	68
Luke Heimlich L 2019 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	18.2%	7.6%	3.0%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	118	68
Jimmy Reed L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	24	SP	3.66	12.9%	4.3%	2.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	137	67
Erik Bedard L 2005 · 3.43 FIP	26	SP	3.43	20.6%	9.2%	1.7%	.311	3.38	24.3%	15.8%	459	-0.05	2.96	1,317	67
Ted Lilly L 2002 · 4.38 FIP	26	SP-	4.38	18.6%	6.8%	3.6%	.222	4.49	18.9%	9.7%	502	+0.11	3.61	1,975	67
Mat Batts L 2015 · 2.70 FIP	24	SP	2.70	16.9%	5.6%	0.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	141	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	71	19.1%	5.0%	1.16	4.02
Dave Schmidt ('81-'92, 8 WAR*)	4.5	90	17.4%*	6.1%*	1.04*	4.13*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Glen Perkins ('17)	3.1	69	19.1%	6.0%	1.07	3.88
Matt Capps ('12)	2.2	63	17.5%	4.6%	1.08	3.52
Austin Pruitt ('24)	1.6	63	16.6%	5.6%	1.31	4.54