Jake Bennett
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
LHP
6'6" / 234 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.3%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%11.9%
IP68
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 15 | 15 | 63 | 258 | 73 | 16 | 4 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 3.14 | 3.40 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 19 | 18 | 75 | 297 | 64 | 19 | 3 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 2.27 | 3.45 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 3 | 3 | 13 | 50 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 22.9% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.67 | 1.70 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BOS | 27 | — | 27 | 116 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 41 | 166 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 1.8% | 3.09 | 3.42 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 20.8% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.24 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.25 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 58 | 24 | 8 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 63 | 268 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 53 | 23 | 8 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 50 | 23 | 7 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 44 | 21 | 7 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 37 | 20 | 7 | 18.9% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 36 | 152 | 605 | 115 | 44 | 10 | 19.0% | 7.2% | 1.6% | 2.49 | 3.28 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 47 | 200 | 798 | 152 | 58 | 13 | 19.0% | 7.2% | 1.6% | 2.49 | 3.28 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Bennett (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.26 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 203 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 89 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .231 | 3.89 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 352 | +0.02 | 2.68 | 740 | 87 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 86 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.21 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .276 | 4.94 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.73 | 2.63 | 160 | 86 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.27 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .317 | 3.29 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.98 | 2.97 | 245 | 86 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 85 |
| Jeff Malm L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.14 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 101 | 84 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .331 | 3.71 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.42 | 3.12 | 310 | 84 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 83 |
| David Rollins L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 17.8% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .391 | 4.73 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 107 | +0.86 | 3.60 | 132 | 82 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 82 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2028 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.31 | 16.3% | 6.2% | 1.5% | .250 | 3.54 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 95 | +0.23 | 3.24 | 163 | 82 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 82 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 81 |
| Diego Barrera L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.67 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 111 | 81 |
| Nolan Becker L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 13.9% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .313 | 5.48 | 18.9% | 14.6% | 13 | +1.32 | 3.71 | 105 | 81 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 81 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 81 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 80 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .294 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.25 | 3.59 | 364 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $6M | $13M | +$7M | ||