Jake Bennett — OGILVIE

Jake Bennett P Boston Red Sox

Age 25 LHP 6'6" / 234 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION144 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8290vR 98

ERA3.62

FIP3.62

K%19.3%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF3550

CTRL6060

CMD4550

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p3419.9%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.9M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$8M	+$4M
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$8M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$32M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	63	258	73	16	4	100%	4.2	21.2%	7.2%	13.9%	2.2%	3.14	3.41	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	63	258	73	16	4	100%	4.2	21.2%	7.2%	13.9%	2.2%	3.14	3.41	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	63	258	73	16	4	100%	4.2	28.3%	6.2%	22.1%	1.6%	3.14	2.37	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	75	297	64	19	3	95%	4.0	16.4%	7.7%	8.7%	1.4%	2.27	3.45	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	75	297	64	19	3	95%	4.0	16.4%	7.7%	8.7%	1.4%	2.27	3.45	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	75	297	64	19	3	95%	4.0	21.5%	6.4%	15.2%	1.0%	2.27	2.68	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	18	105	418	83	17	12	100%	5.8	19.9%	4.1%	15.8%	2.9%	3.69	3.49	+1.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	27	27	144	575	124	26	14	100%	5.3	20.4%	4.4%	16.0%	2.5%	3.12	3.32	+2.8
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	27	27	144	575	124	26	14	100%	5.3	20.4%	4.4%	16.0%	2.5%	3.12	3.32	+2.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	BOS	9	9	39	157	41	9	2	100%	4.4	26.1%	5.7%	20.4%	1.3%	1.60	2.32	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	BOS	18	18	105	418	83	17	12	100%	5.8	19.9%	4.1%	15.8%	2.9%	3.69	3.51	+1.8
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	BOS	18	18	105	418	83	17	12	100%	5.8	19.9%	4.1%	15.8%	2.9%	3.69	3.51	+1.8
ROS	25	MLB MLE	BOS	2	2	10	41	8	2	1	100%	4.8	19.3%	5.8%	13.5%	2.6%	3.62	3.62	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	BOS	2	2	10	42	8	2	1	100%	5.0	19.3%	5.8%	13.5%	2.5%	3.59	3.59	+0.2
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	154	616	132	28	15	—	—	21.4%	4.6%	16.8%	2.4%	3.15	3.34	+3.0
FULL	25	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	115	484	132	28	15	—	—	27.2%	5.9%	21.4%	3.1%	4.23	3.25	+2.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BOS	25	25	148	626	119	35	17	100%	5.9	19.1%	5.6%	13.5%	2.7%	4.09	4.08	+1.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	25	25	150	634	121	36	18	100%	6.0	19.1%	5.7%	13.4%	2.8%	4.10	4.11	+1.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	BOS	25	25	150	634	120	37	18	100%	6.0	18.9%	5.8%	13.1%	2.9%	4.16	4.20	+1.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	BOS	24	24	143	605	113	37	18	100%	6.0	18.7%	6.0%	12.6%	3.0%	4.26	4.33	+1.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	135	569	104	36	18	100%	6.1	18.3%	6.3%	12.0%	3.2%	4.41	4.51	+0.6
2032	31	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	126	530	95	36	18	100%	6.0	17.9%	6.7%	11.2%	3.5%	4.59	4.71	+0.3
2033	32	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	116	491	86	35	18	100%	6.1	17.5%	7.1%	10.4%	3.7%	4.80	4.93	-0.0
2034	33	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	107	450	76	34	18	100%	5.9	17.0%	7.5%	9.4%	4.0%	5.03	5.18	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	BOS	24	24	141	595	113	33	16	100%	5.9	19.1%	5.6%	13.5%	2.7%	4.05	4.04	+1.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	24	24	143	604	115	34	16	100%	6.0	19.1%	5.7%	13.4%	2.7%	4.06	4.07	+1.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	BOS	24	24	143	604	114	35	17	100%	6.0	18.9%	5.8%	13.1%	2.8%	4.12	4.16	+1.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	BOS	23	23	136	574	107	35	17	100%	5.9	18.7%	6.0%	12.6%	2.9%	4.22	4.29	+0.9
2031	30	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	128	540	99	34	17	100%	6.1	18.3%	6.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.37	4.47	+0.6
2032	31	MLB CTX	BOS	20	20	119	502	90	34	17	100%	6.0	17.9%	6.7%	11.2%	3.4%	4.54	4.66	+0.3
2033	32	MLB CTX	BOS	18	18	110	464	81	33	17	100%	6.1	17.5%	7.1%	10.4%	3.6%	4.75	4.88	-0.0
2034	33	MLB CTX	BOS	17	17	101	426	72	32	17	100%	5.9	17.0%	7.5%	9.4%	3.9%	4.98	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		190	190	1136	4770	884	290	146	100%	6.0	18.5%	6.1%	12.4%	3.1%	4.28	3.99	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	840	156	51	26	100%	6.0	18.5%	6.1%	12.4%	3.1%	4.28	3.99	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		61	60	283	1130	220	67	24	98%	4.6	19.5%	5.9%	13.6%	2.1%	2.90	3.37	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	800	156	47	17	98%	4.6	19.5%	5.9%	13.6%	2.1%	2.90	3.37	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Bennett (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	16.9%	7.5%	2.6%	—	4.13	19.0%	13.3%	448	-0.30	—	—	—
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	79
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	77
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	76
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	76
Matt Moore L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.44	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.80	861	76
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	75
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	75
Brett Oberholtzer L 2015 · 4.18 FIP	26	SP	4.18	15.7%	6.4%	2.9%	.299	4.77	13.8%	5.9%	334	+0.59	3.89	442	75
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	75
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	74
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	74
Shane Murphy L 2023 · 5.21 FIP	22	SP	5.21	18.9%	7.1%	5.1%	.272	4.94	15.7%	10.6%	358	-0.27	4.00	455	74
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	74
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	74
Brian Holmes L 2016 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP-	3.60	19.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.313	5.91	15.5%	3.8%	53	+2.31	3.60	205	73
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	18.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.45	17.1%	7.9%	185	+0.20	3.57	534	73
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.35	18.2%	9.2%	348	+0.19	4.07	614	73
Patrick Corbin L 2015 · 3.34 FIP	26	SP	3.34	20.6%	5.3%	2.4%	.312	3.46	24.1%	17.2%	545	+0.12	2.30	1,829	73
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	73
Luke Heimlich L 2019 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	18.2%	7.6%	3.0%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	118	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	127	18.3%	6.4%	1.21	4.39
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17