Carson Palmquist

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 206 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	27	27	118	3.98	3.84	29.0%	12.1%	—	K 23.8% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.54
2025	24	MIX2 levels	35	17	112	5.95	4.71	23.6%	13.1%	-0.2	K 21.0% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.63
2026	25	MIX2 levels	35	14	58	6.05	3.79	19.3%	13.0%	0.5	K 17.4% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.80
2027PROJ	26	MLBWSH	18	18	110	5.19	5.22	17.9%	12.6%	0.2
2028PROJ84% MLB	27	MLBWSH	11	11	67	5.14	5.16	18.3%	12.1%	0.2
2029PROJ88% MLB	28	MLBWSH	8	8	48	5.14	5.18	18.5%	12.0%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%30

xwOBA vs29

FB Velo10

CompsDan Meyer (age 26) · Irwin Delgado (age 26) · Brad Mills (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.19

FIP5.22

K%17.9%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%5.4%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	7.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	92	391	134	37	13	100%	4.9	26.7%	10.8%	15.9%	3.9%	3.90	4.37	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	92	391	134	37	13	100%	4.9	34.3%	9.5%	24.8%	3.3%	3.90	3.23	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	496	144	60	15	100%	4.4	23.8%	12.2%	11.6%	3.5%	3.98	4.54	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	496	144	60	15	100%	4.4	23.8%	12.2%	11.6%	3.5%	3.98	4.54	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	118	496	144	60	15	100%	4.4	29.0%	12.1%	16.9%	3.0%	3.98	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	112	513	121	67	17	49%	3.2	21.0%	12.2%	8.8%	3.2%	5.95	4.63	-0.1
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	112	513	121	67	17	49%	3.2	21.0%	12.2%	8.8%	3.2%	5.95	4.63	-0.1
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	17	112	513	121	67	17	49%	3.2	23.6%	13.1%	10.5%	3.3%	5.95	4.71	-0.2
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	14	58	269	52	35	3	40%	1.7	17.4%	12.0%	5.4%	1.2%	6.05	3.80	+0.5
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	14	58	269	52	35	3	40%	1.7	17.4%	12.0%	5.4%	1.2%	6.05	3.80	+0.5
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	14	58	269	52	35	3	40%	1.7	19.3%	13.0%	6.3%	1.1%	6.05	3.79	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	13	51	253	42	33	11	65%	2.5	16.6%	13.0%	3.6%	4.3%	8.53	6.22	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	WSH	18	18	110	464	83	58	14	100%	6.1	17.9%	12.6%	5.4%	3.0%	5.19	5.22	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	79	334	61	41	10	100%	6.1	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.1%	5.14	5.16	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	55	231	43	28	7	100%	6.1	18.5%	12.0%	6.5%	3.2%	5.14	5.18	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	41	171	31	21	6	100%	5.8	18.1%	12.0%	6.1%	3.3%	5.21	5.29	+0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	WSH	5	5	30	127	22	15	4	100%	6.0	17.5%	12.2%	5.3%	3.5%	5.36	5.47	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	67	283	52	34	9	100%	6.1	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.1%	5.14	5.16	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	48	203	37	24	6	100%	6.0	18.5%	12.0%	6.5%	3.2%	5.14	5.18	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	37	156	28	19	5	100%	6.2	18.1%	12.0%	6.1%	3.3%	5.21	5.29	+0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	28	118	21	14	4	100%	5.6	17.5%	12.2%	5.3%	3.5%	5.36	5.47	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	43	230	1011	180	124	35	86%	4.6	17.8%	12.3%	5.5%	3.5%	5.92	5.08	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	37	200	878	156	108	30	86%	4.6	17.8%	12.3%	5.5%	3.5%	5.92	5.08	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		117	77	381	1674	378	200	52	66%	3.3	22.6%	11.9%	10.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.42	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	40	200	879	199	105	27	66%	3.3	22.6%	11.9%	10.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.42	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 42 IPFIP 3.83 → 3.94 (+0.11)K% 19.4% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.37%	—	×0.860	16.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.14%	—	×0.900	12.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.05%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 78 IPFIP 3.46 → 3.73 (+0.26)K% 27.8% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.81%	—	×0.860	23.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.43%	—	×0.900	11.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.017	×1.100	2.24%

Result: FIP 3.46 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 82 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.68 (+1.04)K% 34.2% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.24%	—	×0.810	27.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷0.916	×1.200	2.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 35 IPFIP 6.23 → 6.25 (+0.03)K% 18.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.67%	—	×0.860	16.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.27%	—	×0.900	14.64%
HR / BF /BF	4.82%	÷1.096	×1.100	4.84%

Result: FIP 6.23 → 6.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Spokane Indians · 70 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.14 (+1.20)K% 35.7% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.69%	—	×0.770	27.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×1.150	10.84%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.047	×1.250	3.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 22 IPFIP 4.13 → 5.09 (+0.96)K% 29.8% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.79%	—	×0.810	24.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.57%	—	×1.100	10.53%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷1.040	×1.200	4.91%

Result: FIP 4.13 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Palmquist (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	5.20	18.3%	6.3%	175	-0.02	—	—	—
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	77
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	71
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	71
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	69
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	68
Vidal Nuño L 2013 · 4.35 FIP	26	SP-	4.35	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.215	4.24	19.7%	14.3%	366	-0.11	4.00	606	67
Zac Lowther L 2022 · 5.67 FIP	26	SP-	5.67	17.8%	10.6%	5.0%	.436	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	375	67
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	67
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	66
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	65
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	65
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	65
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	64
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	64
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	64
Chaz Hebert L 2017 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	15.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	167	62
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	62
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	61
Pat Misch L 2008 · 5.05 FIP	26	SW	5.05	16.5%	5.7%	4.8%	.268	4.53	10.8%	5.4%	100	-0.52	3.50	265	61
Lenny DiNardo L 2006 · 5.34 FIP	26	SW	5.34	8.9%	10.0%	3.2%	.372	4.68	10.1%	0.9%	176	-0.66	2.76	257	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	66	17.9%	12.4%	1.29	5.61
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Dustin Nippert ('10)	1.3	67	17.6%	11.2%	1.18	5.31
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Paul Mirabella ('78-'90, -0 WAR*)	2.5	71	17.2%*	10.7%*	0.95*	4.64*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*