Carson Palmquist
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 25
LHP
6'3" / 206 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 128 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124133vR 143
ERA4.71
FIP5.15
K%18.9%
BB%13.9%
K-BB%5.0%
ROS IP128
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 199 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.4
Whiff%
p1921.0%
K%
p1015.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.378
SL+1.3 (31%)
SI (10%)
CH (3%)
CT-4.6 (13%)
FB-14.1 (52%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 40.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.48 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 40.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 7.10 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 92 | 391 | 134 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 4.9 | 26.7% | 10.8% | 15.9% | 3.8% | 3.90 | 4.28 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 92 | 391 | 134 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 4.9 | 34.3% | 9.5% | 24.8% | 3.3% | 3.90 | 3.23 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 118 | 496 | 144 | 60 | 15 | 100% | 4.4 | 24.0% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 3.98 | 4.66 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 118 | 496 | 144 | 60 | 15 | 100% | 4.4 | 29.0% | 12.1% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 3.98 | 3.84 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 17 | 112 | 513 | 121 | 67 | 17 | 49% | 3.2 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 5.95 | 4.62 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 17 | 112 | 513 | 121 | 67 | 17 | 49% | 3.2 | 23.6% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 5.95 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 36 | 15 | 70 | 333 | 65 | 43 | 5 | 42% | 2.0 | 16.2% | 14.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 6.40 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 122 | 0 | 128 | 542 | 102 | 75 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 122 | 0 | 128 | 540 | 102 | 75 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 199 | 875 | 167 | 118 | 24 | — | — | 19.1% | 13.5% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 5.31 | 4.89 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 138 | 581 | 167 | 118 | 24 | — | — | 28.8% | 20.4% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 7.66 | 5.48 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 145 | 611 | 128 | 75 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.18 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 146 | 619 | 130 | 75 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 146 | 619 | 129 | 74 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 5.12 | 5.19 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 120 | 72 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.3% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 121 | 71 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.18 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 123 | 71 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 122 | 70 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 5.12 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 114 | 68 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 228 | 101 | 721 | 3074 | 621 | 384 | 112 | 44% | 3.2 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 5.23 | 4.97 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 28 | 200 | 853 | 172 | 107 | 31 | 45% | 3.2 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 5.23 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 118 | 78 | 393 | 1738 | 388 | 227 | 52 | 66% | 3.3 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.52 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 40 | 200 | 884 | 197 | 115 | 27 | 66% | 3.3 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Palmquist (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.56 | 19.4% | 13.8% | 3.6% | — | 5.17 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 438 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Liam Sullivan L 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 121 | 71 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 69 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.05 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 129 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 68 |
| Hayden Frank L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.29 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.29 | 109 | 68 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 68 |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 67 |
| Eric Lauer L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.18 | 19.7% | 14.8% | 3.4% | .395 | 4.69 | 23.8% | 14.5% | 368 | -0.49 | 3.81 | 1,101 | 67 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .307 | 3.48 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 150 | -1.87 | 2.34 | 338 | 67 |
| Edgar Barclay L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.79 | 24.5% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .307 | 5.60 | 16.5% | 4.9% | 157 | +0.81 | 2.06 | 402 | 66 |
| Rio Britton L 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.77 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 128 | 66 |
| Zac Lowther L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.60 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .328 | 5.76 | 17.8% | 7.2% | 44 | +1.16 | 3.02 | 375 | 66 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 66 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.99 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 3.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 196 | 65 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .355 | 4.75 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 107 | +0.16 | 2.03 | 402 | 65 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 65 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2028 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 64 |
| Rob Zastryzny L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.07 | 17.5% | 8.2% | 4.4% | .328 | 4.42 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 169 | -0.65 | 3.26 | 634 | 64 |
| Matt Walker L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 156 | 64 |
| Lewis Thorpe L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 12.1% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 379 | 64 |
| Colin Rodgers L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 313 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 143 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 1.37 | 5.11 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |