Carson Whisenhunt

Carson Whisenhunt P Sacramento River Cats

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.6 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 123 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.52

FIP4.59

K%18.9%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP124

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL3555

CMD3050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p1015.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.368

SI (48%)

SL (15%)

FB (48%)

CH-2.7 (37%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-2	$4M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-2M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	8	30	14	1	0	75%	1.9	46.7%	3.3%	43.3%	0.0%	0.00	-0.42	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	3	8	30	14	1	0	75%	1.9	46.7%	3.3%	43.3%	0.0%	0.00	-0.16	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	59	235	83	23	3	100%	3.7	27.4%	11.1%	16.3%	1.7%	2.45	3.11	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	59	235	83	23	3	100%	3.7	27.4%	11.1%	16.3%	1.7%	2.45	3.11	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	59	235	83	23	3	100%	3.7	35.3%	9.8%	25.5%	1.3%	2.45	2.11	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	110	496	141	56	14	100%	4.1	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.2%	5.17	4.14	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	110	496	141	56	14	100%	4.1	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.2%	5.17	4.14	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	110	496	141	56	14	100%	4.1	28.4%	11.3%	17.1%	2.8%	5.17	3.72	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	131	556	111	47	19	100%	5.0	17.1%	7.8%	9.2%	3.9%	4.53	4.80	+0.2
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	131	556	111	47	19	100%	5.0	17.1%	7.8%	9.2%	3.9%	4.53	4.80	+0.2
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	131	556	111	47	19	100%	5.0	20.0%	8.5%	11.5%	3.4%	4.53	4.37	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			13	13	58	266	42	33	11	100%	4.5	15.8%	12.4%	3.4%	4.1%	5.90	5.82	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	25	24	117	526	116	58	9	96%	4.7	19.1%	10.3%	8.8%	1.9%	4.85	3.81	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	25	24	117	526	116	58	9	96%	4.7	19.1%	10.3%	8.8%	1.9%	4.85	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	SF	17	16	82	362	90	37	4	94%	4.8	24.9%	10.2%	14.6%	1.1%	4.15	2.90	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	SF	8	8	35	164	26	21	5	100%	4.3	15.9%	12.8%	3.0%	3.0%	6.49	5.06	-0.1
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	SF	8	8	35	164	26	21	5	100%	4.3	15.9%	12.8%	3.0%	3.0%	6.49	5.06	-0.1
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	9.1%	9.8%	3.5%	4.52	4.59	—
ROS	25	MLB CTX	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	9.1%	9.8%	3.2%	4.37	4.44	—
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	117	526	116	58	9	—	—	22.1%	11.0%	11.0%	1.7%	4.85	3.81	+1.5
FULL	25	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	35	146	116	58	9	—	—	79.3%	39.6%	39.6%	6.1%	16.36	4.80	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	26	26	158	667	127	65	23	100%	6.1	19.1%	9.7%	9.4%	3.4%	4.99	4.98	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	27	27	160	674	130	65	23	100%	5.9	19.3%	9.6%	9.7%	3.5%	4.95	4.97	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	27	27	160	674	130	65	24	100%	5.9	19.3%	9.7%	9.6%	3.5%	4.97	5.02	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	152	643	121	63	24	100%	6.1	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	3.7%	5.07	5.16	-0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	143	605	110	61	23	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.2%	7.9%	3.9%	5.25	5.36	-0.7
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	25	25	150	633	121	61	20	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.7%	9.4%	3.2%	4.85	4.84	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	25	25	152	642	124	62	21	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.6%	9.7%	3.2%	4.81	4.83	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	25	25	152	642	124	62	21	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.7%	9.6%	3.3%	4.82	4.87	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	145	612	115	60	21	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	3.4%	4.92	5.01	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	23	23	136	574	104	58	21	100%	5.9	18.1%	10.2%	7.9%	3.6%	5.09	5.20	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		135	135	792	3366	629	337	114	100%	5.9	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.4%	4.97	4.65	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	850	159	85	29	100%	5.9	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.4%	4.97	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		98	96	424	1843	391	175	51	98%	4.3	21.2%	9.5%	11.7%	2.8%	4.42	4.04	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	45	200	869	184	82	24	98%	4.3	21.2%	9.5%	11.7%	2.8%	4.42	4.04	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Whisenhunt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	18.7%	8.6%	3.6%	—	4.99	19.2%	9.6%	477	+0.00	—	—	—
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	78
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	74
Mike Minor L 2016 · 5.63 FIP	28	SP	5.63	19.2%	11.8%	4.8%	.330	3.76	23.2%	16.4%	443	-1.87	2.43	807	73
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	71
Derek Holland L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	16.7%	6.1%	4.3%	.270	4.63	18.8%	9.6%	414	-0.20	3.75	686	69
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	68
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	68
David Peterson L 2021 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	24.0%	10.1%	3.8%	.298	3.63	24.1%	14.2%	401	-0.83	2.81	1,061	68
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	67
Manny Banuelos L 2016 · 5.18 FIP	25	SP	5.18	15.1%	14.2%	2.8%	.322	4.03	20.2%	9.6%	254	-1.15	2.95	486	67
Eric Jokisch L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	26	SP	4.34	11.1%	7.1%	2.3%	.307	4.05	14.7%	6.8%	342	-0.29	3.78	412	67
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	67
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2016 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP	4.78	11.0%	8.5%	2.8%	.336	4.87	11.7%	1.5%	176	+0.09	4.58	321	66
Jake Eder L 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP	5.27	22.1%	15.5%	3.8%	.344	4.94	18.6%	9.0%	217	-0.33	2.73	335	66
Justin Steele L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP	4.07	20.0%	12.9%	1.8%	.400	3.71	24.2%	14.1%	203	-0.36	2.74	785	66
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	66
Harrison Musgrave L 2017 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP	5.34	13.8%	11.0%	3.7%	.310	4.64	17.4%	7.7%	85	-0.70	4.01	440	66
Zach Penrod L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	17.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.263	4.46	21.1%	6.8%	141	+0.19	3.41	174	66
Joe Rock L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP	4.44	22.1%	8.9%	3.8%	.335	4.16	18.8%	10.4%	289	-0.28	3.82	486	66
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	152	18.9%	9.6%	1.39	5.02
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36