Carson Whisenhunt P Sacramento River Cats
+0.1 WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.92
FIP4.85
xFIP5.48
SIERA5.46
K%20.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.9%
IP116
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†4550
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p4023.8%
K%
p1015.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.386
SI (48%)
SL (15%)
FB (48%)
CH-2.7 (37%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR K%BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202221ASan Jose Giants4383014100.00
202322AARichmond Flying Squirrels1616592358323327.4%11.1%1.7%2.453.11+1.2
202423AAASacramento River Cats2727110496141561425.0%11.7%3.2%5.174.23+1.3
202524MLBSan Francisco Giants2626131556111471917.9%8.8%3.8%4.534.77+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
202625AAASacramento River Cats4315732011024.1%15.8%0.0%4.113.07+0.3
ROS25MLBSF46461963919719.7%9.7%3.7%5.125.09-0.1
2026 Total25MLBSF622695930721.8%11.2%2.7%4.874.59+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202726MLBSF2222123519106491920.3%9.4%3.7%5.004.97+0.5
202827MLBSF2323126532109501920.5%9.3%3.6%4.934.93+0.5
202928MLBSF2323126532109501920.5%9.3%3.6%4.914.92+0.5
203029MLBSF2222123521105491920.1%9.3%3.7%4.944.98+0.4
203130MLBSF222212050599481919.5%9.4%3.7%5.025.07+0.3
203231MLBSF212111548792471818.9%9.6%3.8%5.115.17+0.2
203332MLBSF202011146886451818.3%9.7%3.9%5.225.29+0.0
203433MLBSF191910644779441817.7%9.9%4.0%5.345.41-0.1
203534MLBSF181810042472431717.0%10.1%4.1%5.475.55-0.3
203635MLBSF17179540065411716.2%10.3%4.2%5.615.70-0.5
203736MLBSF16168837458391615.4%10.6%4.3%5.765.87-0.7
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career777532213903191454123.0%10.5%2.9%4.244.10+4.4
/ 200 IP4847200862198902523.0%10.5%2.9%4.244.10+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Carson Whisenhunt (OGILVIE) 5.09 19.7%9.7%3.7% 4.94 20.5%11.1%375 -0.15
Zac Rosscup L 2028 · 4.57 FIP 27 SU 4.57 24.6%11.0%3.9%.296 2.82 29.5%21.7%40 -1.75 2.58 160 82
Paul Fry L 2026 · 4.71 FIP 25 SU 4.71 21.2%11.7%3.5%.338 3.49 24.6%14.6%159 -1.22 1.78 560 81
James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP 26 SW 4.31 18.9%9.4%2.9%.288 2.87 27.7%21.7%468 -1.44 2.40 924 78
Dylan Lee L 2025 · 4.42 FIP 24 SW 4.42 19.5%8.5%3.4%.277 2.55 29.0%25.0%113 -1.87 2.48 484 78
Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP 25 SU 4.16 21.0%9.8%2.9%.308 5.20 22.9%11.1%38 +1.04 2.45 120 76
John King L 2026 · 4.93 FIP 25 SU 4.93 17.6%7.8%4.2%.306 3.76 15.7%9.6%174 -1.17 2.83 390 75
Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.91 FIP 25 SU 4.91 15.2%9.4%3.5%.236 4.42 17.1%5.3%92 -0.49 4.19 133 75
Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.15 FIP 25 SW 4.15 21.8%11.4%2.6%.301 4.36 21.8%11.4%216 +0.21 3.48 311 75
Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP 25 SU 5.18 20.4%13.6%3.8%.269 4.08 20.7%6.1%103 -1.10 3.46 145 75
Travis Bergen L 2026 · 4.73 FIP 25 SU 4.73 21.5%10.3%3.9%.259 4.49 22.9%4.6%47 -0.24 2.48 143 75
Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP 25 SU 4.09 18.6%10.8%2.2%.317 3.98 104 75
Jake Palisch L 2026 · 5.27 FIP 25 SW 5.27 13.6%7.4%4.3%.288 3.90 13.0%6.1%105 -1.37 3.90 198 75
Brennan Bernardino L 2026 · 4.41 FIP 25 SU 4.41 18.9%11.6%2.6%.325 3.32 24.0%17.4%54 -1.09 2.52 406 74
Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP 25 SU 4.47 24.0%11.1%3.6%.355 4.16 19.5%9.2%53 -0.31 4.16 101 74
Derek Holland L 2029 · 4.86 FIP 28 SW 4.86 16.7%6.1%4.4%.270 4.63 18.8%9.6%414 -0.23 3.76 686 74
Mike Minor L 2029 · 5.65 FIP 28 SU 5.65 19.2%11.8%4.9%.330 3.73 23.2%16.4%443 -1.92 2.38 807 74
Joe La Sorsa L 2026 · 4.08 FIP 25 SW 4.08 17.4%7.2%2.8%.304 4.08 17.5%9.6%122 -0.00 2.90 332 73
Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP 25 SW 4.40 19.9%10.3%3.0%.306 2.92 141 73
Robert Garcia L 2026 · 4.83 FIP 25 SU 4.83 22.5%11.2%4.0%.331 3.16 27.0%17.3%190 -1.67 2.09 452 72
Cam Alldred L 2026 · 4.79 FIP 25 SW 4.79 17.7%11.9%3.1%.213 4.34 19.1%8.6%206 -0.45 3.70 332 72

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2025
Service   1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1M
2028Arb-1$2M+0.5$2M+$0.6M
2029Arb-2$3M+0.5$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Arb-3$4M+0.5$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $7M $9M +$2M