Carson Whisenhunt
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
LHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.92
FIP4.85
xFIP5.48
SIERA5.46
K%20.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.9%
IP116
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†4550
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p4023.8%
K%
p1015.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.386
SI (48%)
SL (15%)
FB (48%)
CH-2.7 (37%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | San Jose Giants | 4 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 14 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 16 | 16 | 59 | 235 | 83 | 23 | 3 | 27.4% | 11.1% | 1.7% | 2.45 | 3.11 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 27 | 27 | 110 | 496 | 141 | 56 | 14 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 5.17 | 4.23 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 26 | 26 | 131 | 556 | 111 | 47 | 19 | 17.9% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 4.53 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 4 | 3 | 15 | 73 | 20 | 11 | 0 | 24.1% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 4.11 | 3.07 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 39 | 19 | 7 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 5.12 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 62 | 269 | 59 | 30 | 7 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.87 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 123 | 519 | 106 | 49 | 19 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 4.97 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 126 | 532 | 109 | 50 | 19 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 126 | 532 | 109 | 50 | 19 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.92 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 105 | 49 | 19 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 4.98 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 99 | 48 | 19 | 19.5% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 115 | 487 | 92 | 47 | 18 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 5.11 | 5.17 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 86 | 45 | 18 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 5.22 | 5.29 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 79 | 44 | 18 | 17.7% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 5.34 | 5.41 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 72 | 43 | 17 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 4.1% | 5.47 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 65 | 41 | 17 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 5.61 | 5.70 | -0.5 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 88 | 374 | 58 | 39 | 16 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 4.3% | 5.76 | 5.87 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 75 | 322 | 1390 | 319 | 145 | 41 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.10 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 47 | 200 | 862 | 198 | 90 | 25 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Whisenhunt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.7% | — | 4.94 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 375 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Zac Rosscup L 2028 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 82 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .338 | 3.49 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.22 | 1.78 | 560 | 81 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 78 |
| Dylan Lee L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .277 | 2.55 | 29.0% | 25.0% | 113 | -1.87 | 2.48 | 484 | 78 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 76 |
| John King L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.93 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .306 | 3.76 | 15.7% | 9.6% | 174 | -1.17 | 2.83 | 390 | 75 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.91 | 15.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .236 | 4.42 | 17.1% | 5.3% | 92 | -0.49 | 4.19 | 133 | 75 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.15 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.36 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 216 | +0.21 | 3.48 | 311 | 75 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 75 |
| Travis Bergen L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .259 | 4.49 | 22.9% | 4.6% | 47 | -0.24 | 2.48 | 143 | 75 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 75 |
| Jake Palisch L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.27 | 13.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | .288 | 3.90 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 105 | -1.37 | 3.90 | 198 | 75 |
| Brennan Bernardino L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.41 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .325 | 3.32 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 54 | -1.09 | 2.52 | 406 | 74 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 74 |
| Derek Holland L 2029 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.86 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.63 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.23 | 3.76 | 686 | 74 |
| Mike Minor L 2029 · 5.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.65 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | .330 | 3.73 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.92 | 2.38 | 807 | 74 |
| Joe La Sorsa L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.08 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .304 | 4.08 | 17.5% | 9.6% | 122 | -0.00 | 2.90 | 332 | 73 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 73 |
| Robert Garcia L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.83 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .331 | 3.16 | 27.0% | 17.3% | 190 | -1.67 | 2.09 | 452 | 72 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.79 | 17.7% | 11.9% | 3.1% | .213 | 4.34 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 206 | -0.45 | 3.70 | 332 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $9M | +$2M | ||