Jordan Wicks — OGILVIE

Jordan Wicks P Iowa Cubs

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.2 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.18

FIP4.10

K%18.7%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

SI (10%)

CH (24%)

FB-1.4 (50%)

SL-2.7 (25%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.407 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$5M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$5M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	4	4	7	32	5	3	0	100%	1.8	15.6%	9.4%	6.2%	0.0%	5.14	2.97	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	4	4	7	32	5	3	0	100%	1.8	15.6%	9.4%	6.2%	0.0%	5.14	2.96	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	95	402	121	28	10	100%	3.9	23.5%	7.9%	15.7%	3.1%	3.80	3.83	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	95	402	121	28	10	100%	3.9	30.1%	7.0%	23.1%	2.5%	3.80	2.80	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	126	520	123	43	17	100%	4.7	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	3.6%	3.79	4.42	+0.7
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	126	520	123	43	17	100%	4.7	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	3.6%	3.79	4.42	+0.7
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	126	520	123	43	17	100%	4.7	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	3.3%	3.79	3.93	+1.5
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	67	301	66	28	14	94%	3.7	20.6%	9.0%	11.5%	4.8%	5.51	5.14	-0.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	67	301	66	28	14	94%	3.7	20.6%	9.0%	11.5%	4.8%	5.51	5.14	-0.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	67	301	66	28	14	94%	3.7	21.9%	9.3%	12.6%	4.7%	5.51	5.10	-0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	85	362	90	24	6	57%	3.0	21.2%	6.0%	15.3%	1.7%	4.01	2.97	+2.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	85	362	90	24	6	57%	3.0	21.2%	6.0%	15.3%	1.7%	4.01	2.97	+2.0
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	16	85	362	90	24	6	57%	3.0	24.9%	6.6%	18.2%	1.7%	4.01	2.75	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			30	19	105	476	87	34	17	63%	3.5	18.3%	7.1%	11.1%	3.6%	5.72	4.51	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	26	23	96	446	78	43	16	88%	3.7	14.8%	8.7%	6.1%	3.9%	6.45	5.11	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	26	23	96	446	78	43	16	88%	3.7	14.8%	8.7%	6.1%	3.9%	6.45	5.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	CHC	22	21	86	396	70	41	15	95%	3.9	17.7%	10.4%	7.3%	3.8%	5.97	5.00	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	CHC	4	2	10	50	8	2	1	50%	2.6	16.0%	4.0%	12.0%	2.0%	10.45	3.35	+0.2
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CHC	4	2	10	50	8	2	1	50%	2.6	16.0%	4.0%	12.0%	2.0%	10.45	3.35	+0.2
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	5	23	4	2	1	100%	5.5	18.7%	7.4%	11.3%	3.0%	4.18	4.10	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CHC	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	18.7%	7.4%	11.3%	2.9%	4.12	4.04	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	102	469	82	45	17	—	—	17.6%	9.5%	8.0%	3.6%	6.32	5.06	-0.2
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	16	67	82	45	17	—	—	123.4%	67.0%	56.4%	25.0%	40.73	14.88	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	97	409	78	28	12	100%	6.1	19.1%	6.9%	12.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.35	+0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	97	409	78	29	12	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.1%	11.9%	3.0%	4.41	4.44	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	92	391	72	29	12	100%	6.2	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	3.2%	4.52	4.60	+0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	87	367	65	28	12	100%	6.2	17.7%	7.6%	10.1%	3.4%	4.69	4.81	+0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	81	342	58	27	12	100%	5.8	16.9%	8.0%	9.0%	3.6%	4.90	5.04	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	92	388	74	27	11	100%	6.1	19.1%	6.9%	12.2%	2.8%	4.31	4.29	+0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	92	388	74	27	11	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.1%	11.9%	2.9%	4.35	4.38	+0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	88	372	68	27	11	100%	5.9	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	3.1%	4.45	4.53	+0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	83	350	62	27	11	100%	5.9	17.7%	7.6%	10.1%	3.3%	4.62	4.74	+0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	77	325	55	26	11	100%	5.9	16.9%	8.0%	9.0%	3.5%	4.83	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	92	542	2321	424	169	74	89%	5.3	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	3.2%	4.73	4.23	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	34	200	856	156	62	27	89%	5.3	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	3.2%	4.73	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		127	111	476	2063	409	166	69	87%	3.8	19.8%	8.0%	11.8%	3.4%	4.63	4.28	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	47	200	866	172	70	29	87%	3.8	19.8%	8.0%	11.8%	3.4%	4.63	4.28	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Wicks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	19.6%	7.2%	3.0%	—	4.46	18.8%	11.7%	286	+0.09	—	—	—
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	78
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	68
Grant Borne L 2019 · 4.20 FIP	25	SP-	4.20	14.5%	5.4%	3.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	169	65
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	65
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	65
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	65
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	64
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	63
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	63
Dietrich Enns L 2017 · 3.26 FIP	26	SP-	3.26	19.7%	7.1%	1.7%	.280	5.55	15.4%	6.6%	266	+2.29	2.80	768	63
Michael Plassmeyer L 2023 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP	4.47	20.5%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	4.59	19.5%	13.1%	216	+0.12	3.42	653	63
Jordan Montgomery L 2018 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	19.8%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.49	24.5%	17.4%	201	-0.58	3.11	1,180	63
Tyler Skaggs L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP	4.23	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.310	3.51	23.9%	16.0%	205	-0.72	3.18	372	62
Brady Basso L 2023 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	20.6%	7.0%	2.2%	.264	4.04	20.2%	14.3%	196	+0.57	2.24	306	62
Jake Dahlberg L 2021 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	22.5%	5.0%	4.6%	.397	5.36	17.9%	10.2%	100	+1.03	3.11	226	62
Jacques Pucheu L 2022 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP-	3.18	21.4%	8.2%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	134	62
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	62
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	62
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	62
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	86	18.4%	7.3%	1.23	4.55
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Alec Mills ('21)	1.1	72	19.0%	6.9%	1.41	4.51
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68