Jordan Wicks

P Iowa Cubs

Age 27 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	18	17	67	5.51	5.10	21.9%	9.3%	0.2	K 20.8% · BB 9.0% · FIP 5.12
2025	25	MIX2 levels	28	16	85	4.01	2.75	24.9%	6.6%	2.8	K 21.9% · BB 6.0% · FIP 2.92
2026	26	MIX2 levels	27	23	99	6.45	5.05	17.5%	9.6%	0.4	K 15.3% · BB 8.7% · FIP 5.15
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	12	12	70	4.94	4.86	17.2%	8.0%	0.4
2028PROJ92% MLB	28	MLBCHC	10	10	60	4.94	4.94	17.1%	8.2%	0.3
2029PROJ93% MLB	29	MLBCHC	9	9	52	5.04	5.10	16.5%	8.4%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs41

FB Velo30

K%10

CompsBrad Mills (age 26) · Roy Merritt (age 30) · Matt Lujan (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.94

FIP4.86

K%17.2%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	4	4	7	32	5	3	0	100%	1.8	15.6%	9.4%	6.2%	0.0%	5.14	2.97	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	4	4	7	32	5	3	0	100%	1.8	15.6%	9.4%	6.2%	0.0%	5.14	2.96	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	95	402	121	28	10	100%	3.9	23.5%	7.9%	15.7%	3.1%	3.80	3.83	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	95	402	121	28	10	100%	3.9	30.1%	7.0%	23.1%	2.5%	3.80	2.80	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	126	520	123	43	17	100%	4.7	20.3%	8.4%	11.9%	3.6%	3.79	4.41	+1.5
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	126	520	123	43	17	100%	4.7	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	3.3%	3.79	3.93	+2.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	67	301	66	28	14	94%	3.7	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	4.8%	5.51	5.12	+0.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	67	301	66	28	14	94%	3.7	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	4.8%	5.51	5.12	+0.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	67	301	66	28	14	94%	3.7	21.9%	9.3%	12.6%	4.7%	5.51	5.10	+0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	85	362	90	24	6	57%	3.0	21.9%	6.0%	15.9%	1.7%	4.01	2.92	+2.6
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	85	362	90	24	6	57%	3.0	21.9%	6.0%	15.9%	1.7%	4.01	2.92	+2.6
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	16	85	362	90	24	6	57%	3.0	24.9%	6.6%	18.2%	1.7%	4.01	2.75	+2.8
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	99	458	80	44	17	85%	3.7	15.3%	8.7%	6.6%	4.1%	6.45	5.15	+0.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	99	458	80	44	17	85%	3.7	15.3%	8.7%	6.6%	4.1%	6.45	5.15	+0.3
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	99	458	80	44	17	85%	3.7	17.5%	9.6%	7.9%	3.7%	6.45	5.05	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			30	19	105	476	87	34	17	63%	3.5	18.3%	7.1%	11.1%	3.6%	5.72	4.51	+1.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	12	12	70	296	51	24	10	100%	5.8	17.2%	8.0%	9.2%	3.3%	4.94	4.86	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	65	274	47	22	9	100%	5.9	17.1%	8.2%	8.9%	3.4%	4.94	4.94	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	56	235	39	20	8	100%	6.2	16.5%	8.4%	8.1%	3.6%	5.04	5.10	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	48	204	32	18	8	100%	6.0	15.8%	8.7%	7.1%	3.8%	5.20	5.31	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	60	253	43	21	9	100%	6.0	17.1%	8.2%	8.9%	3.4%	4.94	4.94	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	52	220	36	18	8	100%	5.8	16.5%	8.4%	8.1%	3.6%	5.04	5.10	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	45	190	30	16	7	100%	5.6	15.8%	8.7%	7.1%	3.8%	5.20	5.31	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	45	262	1137	196	89	41	80%	4.7	17.2%	7.9%	9.4%	3.6%	5.32	4.60	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	34	200	868	150	68	31	80%	4.7	17.2%	7.9%	9.4%	3.6%	5.32	4.60	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		128	111	479	2075	417	167	70	87%	3.7	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	3.4%	4.64	4.28	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	46	200	866	174	70	29	87%	3.7	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	3.4%	4.64	4.28	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 89 IPFIP 5.07 → 5.36 (+0.29)K% 17.6% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.860	15.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×0.900	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.31%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.07 → 5.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 71 IPFIP 2.63 → 2.82 (+0.19)K% 26.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.10%	—	×0.860	22.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.80%	—	×0.900	7.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷1.125	×1.100	1.33%

Result: FIP 2.63 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 21 IPFIP 5.05 → 5.31 (+0.26)K% 27.0% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.97%	—	×0.860	23.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.99%	—	×0.900	8.09%
HR / BF /BF	5.62%	÷1.079	×1.100	5.73%

Result: FIP 5.05 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATennessee Smokies · 58 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.53 (+0.79)K% 29.0% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.99%	—	×0.810	23.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.98%	—	×1.100	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.78%	÷1.082	×1.200	4.19%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 33 IPFIP 3.66 → 3.97 (+0.31)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.860	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.63%	—	×0.900	8.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.965	×1.100	2.53%

Result: FIP 3.66 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 67 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.29 (+1.03)K% 30.6% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.60%	—	×0.770	23.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.05%	—	×1.150	6.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.78%	÷0.938	×1.250	2.37%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATennessee Smokies · 28 IPFIP 4.08 → 5.08 (+1.01)K% 28.9% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.93%	—	×0.810	23.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.13%	÷1.010	×1.200	4.91%

Result: FIP 4.08 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+South Bend Cubs · 7 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.45 (+0.48)K% 15.6% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.62%	—	×0.770	12.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.150	10.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.928	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Wicks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	17.2%	8.0%	3.3%	—	5.10	16.5%	8.1%	169	+0.24	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	78
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	74
Matt Lujan L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	27	SP	5.05	18.5%	11.3%	3.8%	.319	4.69	14.3%	7.9%	70	-0.36	4.06	227	70
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	67
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	66
Ben Holmes L 2019 · 5.57 FIP	27	SP	5.57	19.7%	11.1%	5.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	451	66
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	66
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	66
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	65
Matt Chico L 2008 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	14.2%	7.3%	4.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.15	215	64
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	64
Dan Serafini L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	11.7%	9.0%	3.7%	.300	5.44	9.2%	0.0%	30	+0.17	3.71	259	64
Grant Borne L 2019 · 4.20 FIP	25	SP-	4.20	14.5%	5.4%	3.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	169	63
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	63
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	63
John Rheinecker L 2006 · 4.14 FIP	27	SP-	4.14	8.7%	5.9%	1.9%	.364	5.13	16.7%	5.8%	50	+0.99	4.14	121	62
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	61
David Huff L 2012 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	16.7%	4.4%	4.4%	.294	3.82	17.2%	11.4%	154	-0.84	3.40	540	61
David Purcey L 2009 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	17.5%	13.0%	2.7%	.322	4.13	18.2%	5.4%	68	-0.62	3.60	206	60
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	59	17.2%	7.9%	1.36	5.23
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*