Reid Detmers — OGILVIE

Reid Detmers P Los Angeles Angels

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION168 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7684vR 92

ERA3.60

FIP3.42

K%28.3%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%21.0%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 183 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p7328.9%

p8428.4%

xwOBA vs

p860.277

SL+3.4 (33%)

CH+1.3 (10%)

SI (1%)

CU (11%)

FB-2.3 (47%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.924 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.2M	+0.4	$1M	+$1M
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+1.1	$8M	+$3M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	83	358	127	29	15	100%	4.4	29.9%	9.1%	20.8%	4.5%	4.25	4.17	+0.7
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	83	358	127	29	15	100%	4.4	35.5%	8.1%	27.4%	4.2%	4.25	3.44	+1.5
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	135	561	136	46	14	100%	5.2	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	2.4%	3.67	3.54	+2.2
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	135	561	136	46	14	100%	5.2	24.2%	8.2%	16.0%	2.5%	3.67	3.46	+2.4
2023	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	149	644	168	58	19	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	2.9%	4.48	3.63	+2.3
2023	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	149	644	168	58	19	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	2.9%	4.48	3.63	+2.3
2023	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	149	644	168	58	19	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	3.0%	4.48	3.67	+2.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	735	210	65	36	100%	5.3	26.2%	8.5%	17.8%	5.4%	6.15	4.94	-0.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	735	210	65	36	100%	5.3	26.2%	8.5%	17.8%	5.4%	6.15	4.94	-0.1
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	165	735	210	65	36	100%	5.3	28.6%	8.8%	19.7%	4.9%	6.15	4.57	+0.6
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	61	0	64	266	80	21	6	0%	1.0	30.1%	7.9%	22.2%	2.2%	3.96	2.77	+1.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	61	0	64	266	80	21	6	0%	1.0	30.1%	7.9%	22.2%	2.2%	3.96	2.77	+1.4
2025	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	61	0	64	266	80	21	6	0%	1.0	30.1%	7.9%	22.2%	2.3%	3.96	2.80	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			165	104	617	2613	689	217	78	63%	3.7	26.4%	8.3%	18.1%	3.0%	4.37	3.56	+9.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	29	29	168	672	191	45	17	100%	5.8	28.4%	6.7%	21.7%	2.5%	3.32	2.91	+4.2
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	29	29	168	672	191	45	17	100%	5.8	28.4%	6.7%	21.7%	2.5%	3.32	2.91	+4.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	LAA	29	29	168	672	191	45	17	100%	5.8	28.4%	6.7%	21.7%	2.5%	3.32	2.94	+4.2
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	LAA	29	29	168	672	191	45	17	100%	5.8	28.4%	6.7%	21.7%	2.5%	3.32	2.94	+4.2
ROS	27	MLB MLE	LAA	3	3	15	64	18	5	2	100%	5.1	28.3%	7.3%	21.0%	3.3%	3.60	3.42	+0.3
ROS	27	MLB CTX	LAA	2	2	15	63	18	5	2	100%	7.5	28.3%	7.3%	21.0%	3.3%	3.64	3.46	+0.3
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	183	736	209	50	19	—	—	28.4%	6.7%	21.7%	2.6%	3.34	2.95	+4.5
FULL	27	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	183	774	209	50	19	—	—	27.0%	6.4%	20.6%	2.5%	3.35	2.99	+4.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	77	325	91	24	10	100%	5.9	28.1%	7.4%	20.6%	3.1%	3.77	3.73	+1.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	73	310	85	24	10	100%	6.1	27.5%	7.7%	19.8%	3.2%	3.84	3.89	+0.9
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	69	291	78	23	10	100%	6.3	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	3.4%	4.00	4.10	+0.7
2030	31	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	64	271	71	23	10	100%	5.8	26.0%	8.3%	17.7%	3.6%	4.20	4.33	+0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	77	325	91	24	10	100%	5.9	28.1%	7.4%	20.6%	3.1%	3.80	3.76	+1.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	73	308	85	24	10	100%	6.1	27.5%	7.7%	19.8%	3.3%	3.88	3.93	+0.9
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	69	291	78	23	10	100%	6.3	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	3.5%	4.04	4.14	+0.7
2030	31	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	64	270	70	22	10	100%	5.8	26.0%	8.3%	17.7%	3.7%	4.24	4.37	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		215	154	916	3875	1032	315	121	72%	4.3	26.6%	8.1%	18.5%	3.1%	4.24	3.59	+14.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	34	200	846	225	69	26	72%	4.3	26.6%	8.1%	18.5%	3.1%	4.24	3.59	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		194	133	763	3236	866	266	110	69%	3.9	26.8%	8.2%	18.5%	3.4%	4.37	3.75	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	35	200	848	227	70	29	69%	3.9	26.8%	8.2%	18.5%	3.4%	4.37	3.75	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reid Detmers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	27.7%	8.5%	3.5%	—	3.90	27.5%	19.8%	219	-0.25	—	—	—
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	59
Matt Tomshaw L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	27	SP-	3.04	22.7%	5.4%	2.1%	.301	3.56	16.1%	11.0%	423	+0.52	3.04	681	58
Cole Ragans L 2023 · 3.14 FIP	25	SP-	3.14	28.1%	10.6%	1.9%	.283	3.24	31.3%	22.0%	283	+0.10	2.48	623	57
Manny Banuelos L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	27	SP-	3.48	23.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.338	5.89	18.7%	5.9%	51	+2.41	2.95	486	57
Jordan Montgomery L 2020 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	24.4%	4.7%	3.4%	.315	3.44	22.5%	16.2%	524	-0.06	3.11	1,180	55
Tyler Anderson L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.315	4.35	20.7%	12.2%	256	+0.33	3.10	1,288	54
Alex Wood L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	27	SP-	3.16	21.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.285	3.70	24.6%	18.1%	187	+0.54	2.94	1,009	54
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	52
David Peterson L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	27	SP-	4.16	24.9%	10.7%	3.3%	.356	3.57	20.1%	10.9%	421	-0.59	2.81	1,061	52
Blake Snell L 2020 · 4.38 FIP	27	SP	4.38	31.0%	8.9%	5.1%	.286	3.18	31.5%	19.5%	437	-1.20	1.62	1,451	52
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	51
Brent Headrick L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	25	SW	4.54	22.6%	7.6%	4.3%	.299	2.87	28.1%	21.0%	138	-1.67	2.21	409	51
Steven Brault L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	19.8%	10.1%	3.2%	.301	3.81	18.8%	8.2%	70	-0.66	3.12	691	51
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	49
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	48
Nik Turley L 2017 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	26.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.320	3.29	21.7%	10.8%	22	+0.19	3.10	313	48
Jake Kalish L 2018 · 2.99 FIP	27	SP-	2.99	19.5%	4.1%	1.9%	.334	5.99	18.3%	11.6%	215	+3.00	2.68	740	48
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	48
Shane McClanahan L 2023 · 3.83 FIP	26	SP	3.83	25.8%	8.7%	3.3%	.274	3.44	21.8%	13.8%	118	-0.39	2.95	643	47
Caleb Smith L 2018 · 3.80 FIP	27	SP	3.80	27.0%	9.5%	3.2%	.269	5.01	25.5%	14.7%	281	+1.21	3.31	784	47

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	73	27.2%	8.0%	1.30	4.03
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06