Reid Detmers

P Los Angeles Angels

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 3.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	31	31	165	6.15	4.57	28.6%	8.8%	1.6	K 26.6% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.91
2025	26	MLBLAA	61	0	64	3.96	2.80	30.1%	7.9%	1.3
2026	27	MLBLAA	32	32	185	3.36	2.93	28.5%	6.5%	5.8
2027PROJ	28	MLBLAA	26	26	158	3.77	3.54	28.3%	7.0%	3.6
2028PROJ	29	MLBLAA	23	23	136	3.76	3.73	27.7%	7.2%	2.8
2029PROJ	30	MLBLAA	20	20	120	3.88	3.95	27.0%	7.5%	2.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 8.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.924First FA2029

2027Arb-2$12M2028Arb-3$15M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%84

xwOBA vs82

FB Velo44

Form2.40 ERA (proj 3.77) · K 32.5% (proj 28.3%) · BB 3.5% (proj 7.0%) ▲▲ last 60d · 30 IP through Oct 27

CompsSteven Matz (age 28) · Eduardo Rodriguez (age 28) · Matthew Boyd (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7987vR 95

ERA3.77

FIP3.54

K%28.3%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%21.4%

Proj IP158

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 158 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p7429.1%

p8428.5%

xwOBA vs

p820.281

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.924 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$12M	+3.6	$37M	+$24M
2028	Arb-3	$15M	+2.8	$22M	+$9M
Totals		$27M		$59M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	83	358	127	29	15	100%	4.4	29.9%	9.1%	20.8%	4.5%	4.25	4.17	+1.2
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	83	358	127	29	15	100%	4.4	35.5%	8.1%	27.4%	4.2%	4.25	3.44	+2.0
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	135	561	136	46	14	100%	5.2	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	2.4%	3.67	3.54	+3.0
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	135	561	136	46	14	100%	5.2	24.2%	8.2%	16.0%	2.5%	3.67	3.46	+3.2
2023	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	149	644	168	58	19	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	2.9%	4.48	3.63	+3.2
2023	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	149	644	168	58	19	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	3.0%	4.48	3.67	+3.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	735	210	65	36	100%	5.3	26.6%	8.5%	18.2%	5.4%	6.15	4.91	+0.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	735	210	65	36	100%	5.3	26.6%	8.5%	18.2%	5.4%	6.15	4.91	+0.9
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	165	735	210	65	36	100%	5.3	28.6%	8.8%	19.7%	4.9%	6.15	4.57	+1.6
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	61	0	64	266	80	21	6	0%	1.0	30.1%	7.9%	22.2%	2.2%	3.96	2.77	+1.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	61	0	64	266	80	21	6	0%	1.0	30.1%	7.9%	22.2%	2.2%	3.96	2.77	+1.4
2025	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	61	0	64	266	80	21	6	0%	1.0	30.1%	7.9%	22.2%	2.3%	3.96	2.80	+1.3
2026	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	32	32	185	740	211	48	19	100%	5.8	28.5%	6.5%	22.0%	2.5%	3.36	2.90	+5.9
2026	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	32	32	185	740	211	48	19	100%	5.8	28.5%	6.5%	22.0%	2.5%	3.36	2.90	+5.9
2026	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	32	32	185	740	211	48	19	100%	5.8	28.5%	6.5%	22.0%	2.6%	3.36	2.93	+5.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			168	107	634	2681	709	220	80	64%	3.8	26.4%	8.2%	18.2%	3.0%	4.36	3.54	+14.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	LAA	26	26	158	667	189	46	19	100%	6.1	28.3%	7.0%	21.4%	2.9%	3.77	3.54	+3.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAA	23	23	136	574	159	41	17	100%	5.9	27.7%	7.2%	20.5%	3.0%	3.73	3.70	+2.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	120	509	138	38	16	100%	6.0	27.0%	7.5%	19.5%	3.2%	3.84	3.91	+2.1
2030	31	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	107	451	119	35	15	100%	5.9	26.3%	7.8%	18.4%	3.4%	4.02	4.14	+1.6
2031	32	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	92	386	98	32	14	100%	6.1	25.5%	8.2%	17.2%	3.7%	4.24	4.39	+1.1
2032	33	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	74	312	77	27	12	100%	6.1	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	4.0%	4.50	4.67	+0.6
2033	34	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	54	229	54	21	10	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	4.3%	4.79	4.98	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAA	23	23	136	574	159	41	18	100%	5.9	27.7%	7.2%	20.5%	3.1%	3.76	3.73	+2.8
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAA	20	20	120	507	137	38	17	100%	6.0	27.0%	7.5%	19.5%	3.3%	3.88	3.95	+2.1
2030	31	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	107	452	119	35	16	100%	5.9	26.3%	7.8%	18.4%	3.5%	4.06	4.18	+1.6
2031	32	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	92	388	99	32	15	100%	6.1	25.5%	8.2%	17.2%	3.8%	4.28	4.43	+1.1
2032	33	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	74	312	77	27	13	100%	6.2	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	4.0%	4.54	4.71	+0.6
2033	34	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	54	228	54	21	10	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	4.3%	4.84	5.03	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		265	204	1217	5142	1354	415	167	77%	4.6	26.3%	8.1%	18.3%	3.2%	4.24	3.68	+25.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	34	200	845	222	68	27	77%	4.6	26.3%	8.1%	18.3%	3.2%	4.24	3.68	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		197	136	780	3304	889	269	112	69%	4.0	26.9%	8.1%	18.8%	3.4%	4.36	3.72	+22.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	35	200	847	228	69	29	69%	4.0	26.9%	8.1%	18.8%	3.4%	4.36	3.72	+3.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 78 IPFIP 4.49 → 5.43 (+0.94)K% 29.4% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.36%	—	×0.860	25.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.85%	—	×0.900	7.06%
HR / BF /BF	5.23%	÷0.886	×1.100	6.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 4.49 → 5.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 6 IPFIP 0.80 → 1.78 (+0.99)K% 63.6% → 56.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	63.64%	—	×0.880	56.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.050	4.77%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷0.978	×1.100	5.11%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 0.80 → 1.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 54 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.61 (+0.70)K% 43.1% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.11%	—	×0.810	34.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.100	8.80%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷1.249	×1.200	4.27%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 8 IPFIP 0.59 → 0.96 (+0.37)K% 34.4% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.880	30.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.12%	—	×1.050	3.28%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.907	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.59 → 0.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reid Detmers (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	3.90	27.1%	19.6%	363	+0.36	—	—	—
Steven Matz L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP	4.21	22.1%	6.5%	3.9%	.292	4.03	23.9%	17.6%	244	-0.18	3.19	1,226	63
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2021 · 3.25 FIP	28	SP	3.25	27.4%	7.0%	2.9%	.361	3.79	22.1%	14.2%	309	+0.54	3.25	1,596	58
Matthew Boyd L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	30.2%	6.2%	5.2%	.301	4.32	21.2%	13.6%	152	+0.15	2.22	1,457	56
James Paxton L 2017 · 2.46 FIP	28	SP	2.46	28.3%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	3.43	30.7%	23.1%	331	+0.97	2.46	1,022	55
Erik Bedard L 2007 · 2.96 FIP	28	SP	2.96	30.2%	7.8%	2.6%	.280	3.77	23.3%	13.1%	164	+0.81	2.96	1,317	54
Vidal Nuño L 2015 · 4.10 FIP	28	SW	4.10	20.0%	4.8%	3.8%	.289	4.25	20.8%	16.1%	173	+0.15	4.00	606	53
Jorge De La Rosa L 2009 · 3.70 FIP	28	SP	3.70	24.2%	10.0%	2.5%	.300	3.89	21.2%	11.9%	191	+0.19	3.24	1,537	52
Tyler Anderson L 2018 · 4.20 FIP	28	SP	4.20	22.3%	7.9%	3.6%	.278	4.42	18.5%	11.9%	247	+0.22	3.10	1,288	51
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	51
Manny Parra L 2010 · 4.19 FIP	27	SW	4.19	23.0%	10.7%	3.1%	.331	3.16	25.6%	15.3%	105	-1.03	2.43	710	50
Tom Gorzelanny L 2010 · 3.82 FIP	28	SP-	3.82	19.7%	10.6%	1.9%	.305	3.87	21.7%	13.8%	262	+0.05	2.67	899	49
Brian Duensing L 2011 · 4.22 FIP	28	SP	4.22	16.2%	6.9%	2.9%	.327	3.64	16.3%	10.1%	224	-0.58	2.57	799	47
Matt Moore L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SP	4.57	18.7%	8.1%	3.7%	.314	4.76	18.3%	9.8%	102	+0.19	2.80	1,191	46
Chris Narveson L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.9%	7.7%	2.8%	.296	4.01	18.0%	8.8%	162	+0.01	4.00	625	46
Patrick Corbin L 2017 · 3.80 FIP	28	SP	3.80	21.5%	6.4%	3.1%	.320	2.97	28.3%	21.6%	468	-0.83	2.30	2,144	46
Jordan Montgomery L 2021 · 3.49 FIP	28	SP	3.49	24.5%	7.7%	2.7%	.305	3.63	20.1%	14.0%	484	+0.14	3.11	1,189	46
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2014 · 2.45 FIP	27	SP	2.45	22.0%	4.3%	1.2%	.315	4.35	20.6%	13.6%	145	+1.90	2.45	1,069	46
Bruce Zimmermann L 2023 · 3.09 FIP	28	SP-	3.09	21.3%	6.9%	1.7%	.367	4.06	18.6%	13.0%	293	+0.97	2.91	934	45
Wandy Rodriguez L 2007 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	20.2%	7.7%	2.8%	.290	3.39	22.2%	15.0%	538	-0.52	3.37	1,572	45
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	45

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.9	106	26.6%	8.1%	1.23	4.17
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Ian Kennedy ('23)	9.5	146	21.9%	8.0%	1.32	4.16
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45